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DOE OSTI2021

Computing water flow through complex landscapes – Part 3: Fill–Spill–Merge: flow routing in depression hierarchies

Abstract. Depressions – inwardly draining regions – are common to many landscapes. When there is sufficient moisture, depressions take the form of lakes and wetlands; otherwise, they may be dry. Hydrological flow models used in geomorphology, hydrology, planetary science, soil and water conservation, and other fields often eliminate depressions through filling or breaching; however, this can produce unrealistic results. Models that retain depressions, on the other hand, are often undesirably expensive to run. In previous work we began to address this by developing a depression hierarchy data structure to capture the full topographic complexity of depressions in a region. Here, we extend this work by presenting the Fill–Spill–Merge algorithm that utilizes our depression hierarchy data structure to rapidly process and distribute runoff. Runoff fills depressions, which then overflow and spill into their neighbors. If both a depression and its neighbor fill, they merge. We provide a detailed explanation of the algorithm and results from two sample study areas. In these case studies, the algorithm runs 90–2600 times faster (with a reduction in compute time of 2000–63 000 times) than the commonly used Jacobi iteration and produces a more accurate output. Complete, well-commented, open-source code with 97 % test coverage is available on GitHub and Zenodo.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Soil runway friction evaluation in support of USAF C-17 transport aircraft operations

A series of NASA Diagonal-Braked Vehicle (DBV) test runs were performed on the soil runway 7/25 at Holland landing zone, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, near Pope Air Force Base in March 1995 at the request of the Air Force C-17 System Program Office. These ground vehicle test results indicated that the dry runway friction level was suitable for planned C-17 transport aircraft landing and take-off operations at various gross weights. These aircraft operations were successfully carried out. On-board aircraft deceleration measurements were comparable to NASA DBV measurements. Additional tests conducted with an Army High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicle equipped with a portable decelerometer, showed good agreement with NASA DBV data.

Yager, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Particle scale impacts on deconstruction energy of pine residues

The goal of this Case Study was to quantify the impacts of variable moisture and ash on hammer mill throughput and energy consumption and on generation of fines that are not able to be fed to conversion, as compared to a status quo Base Case system. Also considered was convertible carbon content (minimum carbon specification) and maximum ash content and the delivered feedstock cost impacts of not being able to feed residue not meeting both specifications to the conversion reactor. Laboratory data on the impacts of input particle size and moisture content on the exit particle size were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2 from their single particle impact population balance modeling study. Additional throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from FCIC Subtask 5.2 for the same grinder with a 6 mm screen in place. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the ash contents in the separated fines had not been analyzed in the laboratory at the time of the model runs, we chose to assume that the ash distributed proportionally with total mass into the overs and unders in the disk screen following grinding. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that it is significantly more cost effective to hammer mill the residue prior to drying, even though the grinder throughput is lower and energy consumption is higher versus drying first before grinding. An effect of dry grinding versus high moisture grinding is the production of higher amounts of fines during dry grinding, leading to significantly more of the ground feedstock being rejected by conversion for being below a minimum particle size. With wet grinding the system is still able to produce more preprocessed feedstock meeting the minimum particle size specification even though the instantaneous throughput is lower than for the case of grinding dry feedstock. Additionally, even without the higher fines production from dry grinding, the status quo would still be more costly than wet grinding because the material is rejected after the drying energy has already been input for the dry grinding case. Finally, significant reductions in drying energy are obtained by drying after grinding, and those reductions are of far greater magnitude than the grinding energy increase.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Development of seeding techniques for small supersonic wind tunnel

The NASA Lewis 1x1 foot supersonic wind tunnel is used to experimentally verify computational methods. This tunnel, which is continuous running, operates from laboratory-wide high pressure air and vacuum systems. As such, the air does not recirculate but makes a single pass through the tunnel. The Mach number is varied with interchangeable nozzle blocks and has a range from Mach 1.6 to 4.0. Dry and filtered air is available up to pressures of 3 atmospheres. The air enters the tunnel system through a plenum having flow straighteners and 6 fine mesh screens. The exit of the plenum provides smooth contraction with an area ratio of approximately 20 that, along with the screens, provides a uniform flow for the nozzle.

Hingst, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Variation objective analyses for cyclone studies

The objectives were to: (1) develop an objective analysis technique that will maximize the information content of data available from diverse sources, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of observations from satellites with those from more traditional immersion techniques; and (2) to develop a diagnosis of the state of the synoptic scale atmosphere on a much finer scale over a much broader region than is presently possible to permit studies of the interactions and energy transfers between global, synoptic and regional scale atmospheric processes. The variational objective analysis model consists of the two horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and the integrated continuity equation for a dry hydrostatic atmosphere. Preliminary tests of the model with the SESMAE I data set are underway for 12 GMT 10 April 1979. At this stage of purpose of the analysis is not the diagnosis of atmospheric structures but rather the validation of the model. Model runs for rawinsonde data and with the precision modulus weights set to force most of the adjustment of the wind field to the mass field have produced 90 to 95 percent reductions in the imbalance of the initial data after only 4-cycles through the Euler-Lagrange equations. Sensitivity tests for linear stability of the 11 Euler-Lagrange equations that make up the VASP Model 1 indicate that there will be a lower limit to the scales of motion that can be resolved by this method. Linear stability criteria are violated where there is large horizontal wind shear near the upper tropospheric jet.

Achtemeier, G. L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Cross-scale modeling of storm surge, tide, and inundation in Mid-Atlantic Bight and New York City during Hurricane Sandy, 2012

Driven by high-resolution NAM (North America Mesoscale) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields, a 3-D unstructured grid SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model) was applied to simulate total water level in the Mid-Atlantic Bight during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The simulated storm surge, tide, significant wave height, and wave peak period results compared favorably with NOAA observations along US East Coast, Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. The maximum total water level at The Battery in the New York Harbor was accurately simulated with an absolute error of less than 0.08 m (out of 2.9 m peak surge) and a timing difference less than 10 min, which includes the effects on the order of 0.1–0.3 m (5–10%) from the coastal setup induced by the surface waves. The scenario comparisons of (1) “NAM” versus “ECMWF”, (2) “2-D” versus “3-D”, and (3) “with” versus “without” wind wave model were examined. The 3-D barotropic model forced by ECMWF including the effects of wind waves performs the best, attributed to wave-induced radiation stress and reduction of bottom stress when the 3-D version is used. Simultaneously, the ELCIRC-Sub model, using a 5-m topography/bathymetry sub-grid and a regular 200-m resolution finite volume computational model grid, was developed to simulate the street-level inundation in New York City. The momentum and mass fluxes calculated by the coarser base grid model were effectively coupled with the sub-grid so that running a full-blown high-resolution base model is not required. The ELCIRC-Sub model uses MPI (Message Passing Interface) parallel computing to enlarge the coverage of the land surface and an efficient non-linear solver to improve the accuracy of the wetting-and-drying processes. The temporal comparisons of modeled water level with NOAA's tidal stations and USGS' rapid-deployed gauges showed overall performance with an average error of 0.1 m. Particularly, ELCIRC-Sub captured the profile of the highest peak surge (3.9 m), which rose 2 m within 3 hour at Kings Point, NY. The spatial comparisons of the modeled peak water level at 80 surveyed locations showed an average error less than 0.13 m. The modeled maximum inundation extent also matched well with an 80% hit rate against FEMA's Hurricane Sandy maximum flooding extent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity

Conditional instability and the buoyancy of plumes drive moist convection but have a variety of representations in model convective schemes. Vertical thermodynamic structure information from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and reanalysis (ERA5), satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM3b42), and diagnostics relevant for plume buoyancy are used to assess climate models. Previous work has shown that CMIP6 models represent moist convective processes more accurately than their CMIP5 counterparts. However, certain biases in convective onset remain pervasive among generations of CMIP modeling efforts. Here we diagnose these biases in a cohort of nine CMIP6 models with sub-daily output, assessing conditional instability in profiles of equivalent potential temperature θ e and saturation equivalent potential temperature θ es in comparison to a plume model with different mixing assumptions. Most models capture qualitative aspects of the θ es vertical structure, including a substantial decrease with height in the lower free troposphere associated with the entrainment of subsaturated air. We define a “pseudo-entrainment” diagnostic that combines subsaturation and a θ es measure of conditional instability similar to what entrainment would produce under the small-buoyancy approximation. This captures the trade-off between larger θ es lapse rates (entrainment of dry air) and small subsaturation (permits positive buoyancy despite high entrainment). This pseudo-entrainment diagnostic is also a reasonable indicator of the critical value of integrated buoyancy for precipitation onset. Models with poor θ e /θ es structure (those using variants of the Tiedtke Scheme) or low entrainment runs of CAM5, and models with low subsaturation, such as NASA-GISS, lie outside the observational range in this diagnostic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of boundary lubricants using steady-state wear and friction

A friction and wear study was made at 20 C to establish operating limits and procedures for obtaining improved reproducibility and reliability in boundary lubrication testing. Ester base and C-other base fluids were used to lubricate a pure iron rider in sliding contact with a rotating M-50 steel disk in a pin-on-disk apparatus. Results of a parametric study with varying loads and speeds slowed that satisfactory test conditions for studying the direction and wear characteristics in the boundary lubrication regime with this test device were found to be 1 kilogram load; 7 to 9 meters-per-minute (50 rpm) surface speed; dry air test atmosphere (less than 100 ppm H2O); and use of a time stepwise procedure for measuring wear. Highly reproducible steady-state wear rates resulted from the two fluid studies which had a linearity of about 99 percent after initially higher wear rates and friction coefficients during run-in periods of 20 to 40 minutes.

Loomis, W. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Flexible Instruments for Biological Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

As the future of spaceflight focuses on human exploration beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO), space biology experiments using model organisms are becoming increasingly important. NASA’s Artemis missions seek to build technologies that enable extended crewed flights into deep space, a region not travelled by humans for over 50 years. From the Apollo missions and ground experiments, it is known that BLEO galactic cosmic radiation can cause damage to DNA and proteins, as well as an increased risk of cancer to astronauts. NASA’s latest biosensor technology, the Lunar Explorer Instrument for space biology applications (LEIA), builds upon the viable and cost-effective platform of CubeSats to take biology experiments back to the Moon. Stationed on the lunar South Pole, LEIA will collect valuable in-situ radiation data, and use yeast to study the response to combined partial gravity and radiation stressors, as well as provide a proof-of-concept of on-demand bio nutrient production as a countermeasure for future crewed missions. Directly enhancing the abilities of the BioSentinel CubeSat mission, the main components of LEIA are the two radiation sensors and the 4U BioSensor, composed of 16-microfluidic cards housing dried yeast cells. The payload is fully contained and autonomous, directly sending data back to Earth without the need for sample return. In addition, the thermal environment of the BioSensor is optimized to keep cells alive for the pre-launch period and duration of the Artemis III mission, while also running on limited power supply. This talk highlights how the development of flexible instruments, like LEIA, enables human exploration into deep space. The technology developed with LEIA can be used as a stepping-stone for establishing a sustained lunar surface habitation and beyond, as humans continue to venture into space.

Payne Elizabeth Turney↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stable Catalysts for Combined Dry and Steam Reforming of Methane and Carbon Dioxide

The specific aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive understanding of cheaper and more stable methane and carbon dioxide reforming catalysts with an optimal introduction of steam to reduce carbon deposits that typically prevent the catalytic systems from transferring to commercial implementation. The work was proposed as a two-year project with the end goal of to show a reliable catalyst system run for at least 400 hours at temperatures less than 800 °C with less than 5% loss of activity of the catalyst and a carbon monoxide to hydrogen product ratio of at least 1:1. The project went for one-year and met the end of year milestone by developing two strategies (use of a cerium co-catalyst and introducing 5% water) that reduced the carbon deposition rates by at least 20% relative to the baseline 10% NiMgAlO methane reforming of CO 2 at < 800 °C in order to shown technical feasibility of the concept.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of the Effects of RAS vs. Kain-Fritsch Convective Schemes on Katrina Forecasts with GEOS-5

Global forecasts were made with the 0.25-degree latitude version of GEOS-5, with the RAS scheme and with the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Examination was made of the Katrina (2005) hurricane simulation. Replacement of the RAS convective scheme with the K-F scheme results in a much more vigorous Katrina, closer to reality. Still, the result is not as vigorous as reality. In terms of wind maximum, the gap was closed by ~50%. The result seems to be due to the RAS scheme drying out the boundary layer, thus hampering the grid-scale secondary circulation and attending cyclone development. The RAS case never developed a full warm core, whereas the K-F case did. Not shown here: The K-F scheme also resulted in a more vigorous storm than when GEOS-5 is run with no convective parameterization. Also not shown: An experiment in which the RAS firing level was moved up by 3 model levels resulted in a stronger, warm-core storm, though not as strong as the K-F case. Effects on storm track were noticed, but not studied.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing methane production of anaerobic digested sewage sludge by advanced wet oxidation & steam explosion pretreatment

Anaerobic digestion (AD) of sewage sludge is associated with lowered carbon conversion efficiency due to the recalcitrance of microbial cells in the Waste Activated Sludge (WAS) from the aeration basins with 50 % of the dry weight still being present after AD. The effect of Advanced Wet Oxidation & Steam Explosion (AWOEx) pretreatment on the methane yield at variable temperatures (165–200 °C), residence time (15–45 min) and oxygen dosage (1%–10% based on VS concentration) was tested in this study. Central composite design (JMP® Pro) was used to design 19 runs of AWOEx pretreatment of dewatered digested sewage sludge (DADSS) at different operating conditions. After pretreatment the DADSS was fed to 19 bioreactors operated in semi-continues mode at 37 °C. The highest average methane yields of 183 mL/g VS and 170 mL/g VS were found for the bioreactors receiving DADSS pretreated at 165 °C with a retention time of 15 min and 10 % O2 (Condition 1), and, 182.5 °C with a retention time of 15 min and 5.5 % O2 (Condition 2). This corresponds to an increase in the methane production of 156.2 % and 140.5 % compared to the methane production from the DADSS without pretreatment.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Vitrolube NPI-1220 Solid Lubricant Performance After Ultraviolet and Salt Fog Test Exposures

Vitrolube NPI-1220 is a ceramic-bonded solid lubricant produced by National Process Industries, Inc. (NPI) that uses molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) and graphite as lubricating pigments. It is applied to many space flight components, including nickel-alloy and stainless-steel components. Various applications, such as the powered nut and bolt assemblies in the international space station (ISS) (Illi, 1999), the Space Launch System (SLS) sliding bellows, and the SLS ball strut tie-rod assembly (BSTRA) use Vitrolube. No engineering data exists regarding possible Vitrolube degradation after extended exposure to coastal environments encountered by flight hardware on test stands or launch pads. Such environments include ultraviolet (UV) ray, high humidity, and salt exposures. In this study, nickel-alloy disks coated with Vitrolube by NPI, are exposed to controlled UV ray and ‘salt fog’ environments in facilities at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The exposed disks are run in tribological pin-on-disk tests to quantify any difference in coating lubricity and/or wear compared to coated disks that were not exposed to those environments.

Tribology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improved Cloud Condensation Nucleus Spectrometer

An improved thermal-gradient cloud condensation nucleus spectrometer (CCNS) has been designed to provide several enhancements over prior thermal- gradient counters, including fast response and high-sensitivity detection covering a wide range of supersaturations. CCNSs are used in laboratory research on the relationships among aerosols, supersaturation of air, and the formation of clouds. The operational characteristics of prior counters are such that it takes long times to determine aerosol critical supersaturations. Hence, there is a need for a CCNS capable of rapid scanning through a wide range of supersaturations. The present improved CCNS satisfies this need. The improved thermal-gradient CCNS (see Figure 1) incorporates the following notable features: a) The main chamber is bounded on the top and bottom by parallel thick copper plates, which are joined by a thermally conductive vertical wall on one side and a thermally nonconductive wall on the opposite side. b) To establish a temperature gradient needed to establish a supersaturation gradient, water at two different regulated temperatures is pumped through tubes along the edges of the copper plates at the thermally-nonconductive-wall side. Figure 2 presents an example of temperature and supersaturation gradients for one combination of regulated temperatures at the thermally-nonconductive-wall edges of the copper plates. c) To enable measurement of the temperature gradient, ten thermocouples are cemented to the external surfaces of the copper plates (five on the top plate and five on the bottom plate), spaced at equal intervals along the width axis of the main chamber near the outlet end. d) Pieces of filter paper or cotton felt are cemented onto the interior surfaces of the copper plates and, prior to each experimental run, are saturated with water to establish a supersaturation field inside the main chamber. e) A flow of monodisperse aerosol and a dilution flow of humid air are introduced into the main chamber at the inlet end. The inlet assembly is designed to offer improved (relative to prior such assemblies) laminar-flow performance within the main chamber. Dry aerosols are subjected to activation and growth in the supersaturation field. f) After aerosol activation, at the outlet end of the main chamber, a polished stainless-steel probe is used to sample droplets into a laser particle counter. The probe features an improved design for efficient sampling. The counter has six channels with size bins in the range of 0.5- to 5.0-micron diameter. g) To enable efficient sampling, the probe is scanned along the width axis of the main chamber (thereby effecting scanning along the temperature gradient and thereby, further, effecting scanning along the supersaturation gradient) by means of a computer-controlled translation stage.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗