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DOE OSTI2023

Performance Comparison of Object Detection Networks for Shrapnel Identification in Ultrasound Images

Ultrasound imaging is a critical tool for triaging and diagnosing subjects but only if images can be properly interpreted. Unfortunately, in remote or military medicine situations, the expertise to interpret images can be lacking. Machine-learning image interpretation models that are explainable to the end user and deployable in real time with ultrasound equipment have the potential to solve this problem. We have previously shown how a YOLOv3 (You Only Look Once) object detection algorithm can be used for tracking shrapnel, artery, vein, and nerve fiber bundle features in a tissue phantom. However, real-time implementation of an object detection model requires optimizing model inference time. Here, we compare the performance of five different object detection deep-learning models with varying architectures and trainable parameters to determine which model is most suitable for this shrapnel-tracking ultrasound image application. We used a dataset of more than 16,000 ultrasound images from gelatin tissue phantoms containing artery, vein, nerve fiber, and shrapnel features for training and evaluating each model. Every object detection model surpassed 0.85 mean average precision except for the detection transformer model. Overall, the YOLOv7tiny model had the higher mean average precision and quickest inference time, making it the obvious model choice for this ultrasound imaging application. Other object detection models were overfitting the data as was determined by lower testing performance compared with higher training performance. In summary, the YOLOv7tiny object detection model had the best mean average precision and inference time and was selected as optimal for this application. Next steps will implement this object detection algorithm for real-time applications, an important next step in translating AI models for emergency and military medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remote sensing detection enhancement

Big Data in the area of Remote Sensing has been growing rapidly. Remote sensors are used in surveillance, security, traffic, environmental monitoring, and autonomous sensing. Real-time detection of small moving targets using a remote sensor is an ongoing, challenging problem. Since the object is located far away from the sensor, the object often appears too small. The object’s signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) is often very low. Occurrences such as camera motion, moving backgrounds (e.g., rustling leaves), low contrast and resolution of foreground objects makes it difficult to segment out the targeted moving objects of interest. Due to the limited appearance of the target, it is tough to obtain the target’s characteristics such as its shape and texture. Without these characteristics, filtering out false detections can be a difficult task. Detecting these targets, would often require the detector to operate under a low detection threshold. However, lowering the detection threshold could lead to an increase of false alarms. In this paper, the author will introduce a new method that improves the probability to detect low SNR objects, while decreasing the number of false alarms as compared to using the traditional baseline detection technique.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated detection of photovoltaic cleaning events: A performance comparison of techniques as applied to a broad set of labeled photovoltaic data sets

Extracting accurate soiling loss information from photovoltaic (PV) production data first requires segmenting the time series data per natural or manually occurring cleaning events. Maintenance logs are often incomplete, rain data are often unavailable, and the debate on rain thresholds for cleaning and dew or wind cleanings is still ongoing. The present work aims to overtake these issues by improving automated methods to detect these cleaning events and therefore improve extraction of soiling loss information. Time series power production data from 22 PV inverters were labeled for natural or manually occurring cleaning events. The data sets were carefully selected to include varying degrees of soiling, cleaning events, and noise. Several algorithms, including filtering logic and change point detection, were examined for efficacy at detecting the labeled cleanings. All the methods introduced except for changepoint detection showed significant improvement at detecting the labeled cleaning events per the mean F 1 score. Furthermore, the highest performing cleaning detection algorithm achieved an absolute increase in the mean F 1 score of 43% over the default version of the RdTools stochastic rate and recovery (SRR) algorithm. The highest performing algorithm included irradiance filtering and a cleaning detection threshold, adjusted based on the 40-day centered rolling median of the absolute day-to-day deviations in the daily performance index (PI). Furthermore, these improvements are promising as cleaning detection is an essential step in the automated analysis of PV soiling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Radioxenon Detection for Monitoring Subsurface Nuclear Explosion

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans the testing of nuclear weapons anywhere on the earth (atmospheric, surface, underwater and subsurface). Identification of nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, surface, and underwater is relatively straightforward considering a wide range of signatures resulting from such an event. However, for a subsurface explosion, most of the signatures traditionally associated with a nuclear explosion are not readily available. Therefore, the international community has increasingly relied on the atmospheric measurement of noble gases to identify subsurface nuclear weapon explosions. This chapter initially covers the basic principles of subsurface nuclear explosion identification and the importance of detecting radioxenon. This is followed by reviewing some of the early radioxenon detection systems that were developed by research groups around the world in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The detection media employed, results from laboratory and field testing, and some challenges/drawbacks for these systems are detailed. The next section of the chapter is dedicated to innovative detector concepts that have emerged in the past ten to fifteen years using novel detection material, algorithms, and signal readout techniques. The advances achieved in terms of energy resolution, coincidence detection efficiencies, system performance, and the minimum detectable concentration are covered. The final section goes over some of the potential improvements that can be incorporated in the design to enhance detector sensitivity and new detection material that can be explored in the field of radioxenon detection.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

DOE OSTI2026

The role of source geometry and atmospheric propagation in global bolide infrasound detectability

Global infrasound monitoring provides a persistent means of detecting energetic bolide atmospheric entries, complementing optical observations and extending coverage over remote regions. We present a global assessment of the physical factors governing bolide infrasound detectability by correlating 623 bolide events reported by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies between 2007 and 2025 with waveform data from the International Monitoring System. We identify 311 events with confirmed infrasound detections, corresponding to a detection rate of approximately 50%, substantially higher than inferred from earlier surveys, reflecting both the maturation of the global infrasound network and advances in automated, multi-frequency array processing. Analysis of flight parameters shows that infrasound detectability is selective rather than uniform across the bolide population. Detected events are preferentially associated with steeper entry angles and lower-altitude energy deposition, while shallow, high-altitude trajectories are less consistently observed. Very high-energy events remain detectable regardless of geometry, but for the more common lower-energy regime, observability depends on specific combinations of entry parameters and propagation conditions. This geometric dependence persists across comparable energy ranges and atmospheric conditions, indicating that entry angle exerts a primary control on detectability, with energy and propagation acting as secondary modulating factors. Furthermore, these results provide new physical constraints on bolide-atmosphere interactions and improve interpretation of global infrasound observations for planetary defense and atmospheric-entry studies.

Bolides↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of neutron noise analysis in detecting special nuclear materials

Reliable and rapid inspection techniques play a vital role in preventing illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. Active interrogation systems using neutrons produced by portable, high-flux deuterium-deuterium or deuterium-tritium neutron generators are being actively developed as a secondary scanning tool for this purpose. In this study, a neutron noise analysis-based approach for detecting unshielded and shielded special nuclear materials by using a pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator was evaluated. Here, this approach analyzes the fluctuation of neutron counts. Its performance was quantified with regard to time-to-detection to achieve a minimum probability of detection of 99% and a probability of false alarm of less than 1% considering various amounts of special nuclear materials and different shielding configurations. It was demonstrated that this approach could detect 17 uranium slugs in 5 s given a neutron generator yield of 8.1 × 10 7 n/s. These slugs could be detected within a reasonable time frame (200 s) when they were shielded by 10.16 cm of high-density polyethylene. The results obtained using the neutron noise analysis approach were compared with those obtained using the commonly used differential die-away analysis technique, a sensitive technique for detecting the presence of fissile materials by utilizing the prompt fission neutrons produced when the source neutrons from a neutron generator are completely diminished. For example, the time to detect 2 unshielded uranium slugs was 2.1 s when using the differential die-away analysis technique; it increased to 93 s for the neutron noise analysis approach. Although the noise analysis-based approach exhibits an overall performance which is not as good as that of differential die-away, neutron noise provides an alternative method for effective detection of special nuclear materials.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

The influence of environmental microseismicity on detection and interpretation of small-magnitude events in a polar glacier setting

Glacial environments exhibit temporally variable microseismicity. To investigate how microseismicity influences event detection, we implement two noise-adaptive digital power detectors to process seismic data from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We add scaled icequake waveforms to the original data stream, run detectors on the hybrid data stream to estimate reliable detection magnitudes and compare analytical magnitudes predicted from an ice crack source model. We find that detection capability is influenced by environmental microseismicity for seismic events with source size comparable to thermal penetration depths. When event counts and minimum detectable event sizes change in the same direction (i.e. increase in event counts and minimum detectable event size), we interpret measured seismicity changes as ‘true’ seismicity changes rather than as changes in detection. Generally, one detector (two degree of freedom (2dof)) outperforms the other: it identifies more events, a more prominent summertime diurnal signal and maintains a higher detection capability. We conclude that real physical processes are responsible for the summertime diurnal inter-detector difference. One detector (3dof) identifies this process as environmental microseismicity; the other detector (2dof) identifies it as elevated waveform activity. Our analysis provides an example for minimizing detection biases and estimating source sizes when interpreting temporal seismicity patterns to better infer glacial seismogenic processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Stability and Sensitivity for CA-125 Detection Under Microfluidic Shear Flow Using Polyethylene Glycol-Coated Biosensor

The microfluidic-based point-of-care (POC) diagnostic tool has garnered significant interest in recent years, offering rapid and cost-effective disease detection. There is a growing trend toward integrating microfluidic platforms with biosensors, aligning lab-on-a-chip technologies with POC diagnostic devices. Despite numerous efforts to incorporate biosensors into microfluidic systems, researchers have performed very limited investigations on the stability of biomarker detection when biosensors operate under microfluidic shear flow conditions. Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) are a widely employed material in capacitive biosensors for antibody immobilization and sensitivity enhancement. However, AuNPs have limitations in providing stable detection of biomarkers within microfluidic shear flow due to their agglomeration nature. This study addresses these limitations by employing 2 kDa polyethylene glycol (PEG) as an intermediate biofunctional layer to immobilize CA-125 antibodies on gold-interdigitated electrodes for the stable and accurate detection of CA-125 antigens. The stabilities and sensitivities of AuNPs and PEG-coated biosensors are evaluated under both static drop and microfluidic shear flow conditions for CA-125 antigen detection. The experimental results demonstrate a capacitive signal response (5660 pF at 10 kHz) 2.2 times higher using the PEG-coated biosensor than the signal (2551 pF at 10 kHz) measured by the AuNP-coated biosensor in the detection of CA-125 antigen–antibody conjugation under static drop conditions, indicating the higher sensitivity of the PEG-coated biosensor. Additionally, the PEG-coated biosensor exhibits better consistency for the CA-125 antigen detection between static drop and microfluidic shear flow conditions (Cp decrease in percentage (ΔCp%↓) = 2.9% at 10 kHz) compared to the electrical signals measured using the AuNP-coated biosensor (ΔCp%↓ = 32.4% at 10 kHz), which suggests that the PEG-coated biosensor demonstrates higher stability for CA-125 antigen detection under microfluidic shear flow conditions. With these significant improvements brought by the PEG-coated biosensor, especially under microfluidic conditions, a substantial hurdle in developing electrical biosensors for POC diagnostic applications has been overcome, expediting further advancements in the field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Image-based novel fault detection with deep learning classifiers using hierarchical labels

One important characteristic of modern fault classification systems is the ability to flag the system when faced with previously unseen fault types. This work considers the unknown fault detection capabilities of deep neural network-based fault classifiers. Specifically, we propose a methodology on how, when available, labels regarding the fault taxonomy can be used to increase unknown fault detection performance without sacrificing model performance. To achieve this, we propose to utilize soft label techniques to improve the state-of-the-art deep novel fault detection techniques during the training process and novel hierarchically consistent detection statistics for online novel fault detection. Lastly, we demonstrated increased detection performance on novel fault detection in inspection images from the hot steel rolling process, with results well replicated across multiple scenarios and baseline detection methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bennett-Brassard 1984 quantum key distribution using conjugate homodyne detection

Optical homodyne detection has been widely used in continuous-variable (CV) quantum information processing for measuring field quadrature. In this paper we explore the possibility of operating a conjugate homodyne detection system in “photon counting” mode to implement discrete-variable (DV) quantum key distribution (QKD). A conjugate homodyne detection system, which consists of a beam splitter followed by two optical homodyne detectors, can simultaneously measure a pair of conjugate quadratures X and P of the incoming quantum state. In classical electrodynamics, X 2 + P 2 is proportional to the energy (the photon number) of the input light. In quantum optics, X and P do not commute and thus the above photon-number measurement is intrinsically noisy. This implies that a blind application of standard security proofs of QKD could result in pessimistic performance. We overcome this obstacle by taking advantage of two special features of the proposed detection scheme. First, the fundamental detection noise associated with vacuum fluctuations cannot be manipulated by an external adversary. Second, the ability to reconstruct the photon number distribution at the receiver's end can place additional constraints on possible attacks from the adversary. As an example, we study the security of the BB84 QKD using conjugate homodyne detection and evaluate its performance through numerical simulations. This study may open the door to a family of QKD protocols, complementary to the well-established DV-QKD based on single-photon detection and CV-QKD based on coherent detection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neural Learning Based Blind Source Separation for Detection of Material Defects in Pulsed Thermography Images

In this paper, we introduce a neural learning-based approach to blind source separation for detection of material flaws in pulsed thermography (PT) images. This approach can be used to detect internal defects (pores) in metallic Additively Manufactured (AM) materials. Such defects occur in high-strength alloys produced with direct laser sintering AM method for nuclear energy applications. Pulsed thermal imaging system utilizes a high intensity flash lamp to rapidly heat surface of sample, a high sensitivity infrared camera to capture data of surface temperature variations. The data cube obtained with PT (stack of surface temperature images at different times) can be analyzed with image processing algorithms to detect material defects. Compared with conventional nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods, such as digital radiography and ultrasonic testing, the PT pulsed infrared thermal detection technique has advantages of one-sided non-contact measurements, fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. Detection of small material defects requires finding features in thermal images, which have signal contrast levels approaching sensitivity limit of IR camera. In this study, an optimized Neural Learning based Blind Source Separation (NLBSS) algorithm, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is demonstrated to automatically extract principal temporal and spatial features of thermography frames to enhance flaw detection. By using the NLBSS algorithm, material internal defects can be automatically detected. Furthermore, this processing approach compensates for experimental thermal imaging artifacts, such as noise and uneven heating. By merging artificial intelligence with the photothermic, the NDE system detects internal calibrated defects of various sizes and depths in AM nuclear-grade metallic alloys.

Zhang, Xin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Grid Edge Waveform Analytics Framework for Event Detection and Classification

This paper provides a grid edge waveform analytics framework for power system event detection and classification in the local as well as in the wide area. This framework overviews data excellence for event detection and classification. The data excellence describes the data acquisition process and requirements, data processing, data quality, and data integrity. Power system event detection in the local area based on different features such as energy-based, cyclostationary approach, template matching, and wavelet transform are also discussed. Furthermore, local area event detection and classification using approaches such as statistical, signal processing, artificial intelligence, and hybrid are also discussed. Moreover, an overview of wide-area event detection and classification along with several other aspects such as wide-area events, wide-area event detection approaches, event location and system performance, event pattern recognition, inter-area oscillation, and wide-area frequency response under variable deployment of inverter-based resources are also provided. The proposed framework is the first step toward the goal of developing appropriate tools and methodologies to detect and classify local as well as wide-area events using waveform analytics. The appropriate event detection and classification framework development is especially important now as more and more grid edge devices with communication capabilities are being deployed in the modern power grid than ever before.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of a coastal acoustic buoy for cetacean detections, bearing accuracy and exclusion zone monitoring

Abstract There is strong socio‐political support for offshore wind development in US territorial waters and construction is planned off several east coast states. Some of the planned development sites coincide with important habitat for critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. Both exclusion zones and passive acoustic monitoring are important tools for managing interactions between marine mammals and human activities. Understanding where animals are with respect to exclusion zones is important to avoid costly construction delays while minimizing the potential for negative impacts. Impact piling from construction of hundreds of offshore wind turbines likely require exclusion zones as large as 10 km. We have developed a three‐hydrophone passive acoustic monitoring system that provides bearing information along with marine mammal detections to allow for informed management decisions in real‐time. Multiple units form a monitoring system designed to determine whether marine mammal calls originate from inside or outside of an exclusion zone. In October 2021, we undertook a full system validation, with a focus on evaluating the detection range and bearing accuracy of the system with respect to right whale upcalls. Five units were deployed in Mid‐Atlantic waters and we played more than 3500 simulated right whale upcalls at known locations to characterize the detection function and bearing accuracy of each unit. The modelled results of the detection function error were then used to compare the effectiveness of a bearing‐based system to a single sensor that can only detect a signal but not ascertain directivity. Field trials indicated maximum detection ranges from 4–7.3 km depending on source and ambient noise levels. Simulations showed that incorporating bearing detections provide a substantial improvement in false alarm rates (6 to 12 times depending on number of units, placement and signal to noise conditions) for a small increase in the risk of missed detections inside of an exclusion zone (1%–3%). We show that the system can be used for monitoring exclusion zones and clearly highlight the value of including bearing estimation into exclusion zone monitoring plans while noting that placement and configuration of units should reflect anticipated ambient noise conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasonic waveguide reflectometry for quench detection (CRADA Final Report)

Early detection of thermal runaway (quench) is critical for safely operating high-temperature superconductor (HTS) magnets. Voltage-based techniques provide late detection of quenching in HTS, which can lead to magnet burnout and system damage. Various non-voltage quench-detection approaches are therefore investigated nowadays that are based on magnetic, acoustic, and optical sensing. LBNL has been actively developing the quench detection principle based on diffuse ultrasonic wave propagation since 2017 and has demonstrated the approach's viability with several peer-reviewed publications and a patent application. Over the last decade, Etegent, LBNL partner for this proposal and effort, has been developing a sensing technology that utilizes the propagation of stress waves through the solid metallic and nonmetallic waveguides (WG). The method is based on the dependence of materials' elastic properties and the speed of sound on temperature. Compared with optical analog, acoustic WG operates at much lower frequencies, eliminating the need for expensive, complex, highly sensitive receivers and data processing. Etegent proved this technology in many harsh environments, mainly concentrated high-temperature measurements. The initial contact between LBNL and Etegent started in 2020, aiming at combining our knowledge and effort toward developing a viable ultrasound-based quench detection technique for use with HTS magnets. A preliminary study conducted jointly in 2022 found no principle restrictions for expanding the WG technology toward cryogenic temperature operation. The present CRADA work aimed at designing, building, and testing ultrasonic waveguide temperature sensors at relevant cryogenic conditions, and demonstrating this technology's applicability to detecting heating and quenching in High Temperature Superconductor (HTS)-based cables and magnets. The technical objectives of the project included: (1) Design and fabricate ultrasonic WG sensors suitable for cryogenic operation, (2) Test ultrasonic WGs under cryogenic conditions, (3) Determining a suitable way of insulating WGs to prevent ultrasonic leakage while maintaining good thermal contact with the surrounding medium, (4) WG integration and cryogenic test with HTS conductors and HTS magnets, and (5) Design and basic prototyping of a standalone WG-based quench detection system. This project adds value to the present LBNL magnet diagnostics portfolio and enables a breakthrough in addressing the HTS magnet quench detection challenge.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Report on Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection Workshop: Domain-Aware Methods

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the modern world has impacted nearly every application imaginable. This includes nuclear proliferation detection, which offers the potential to improve existing capabilities as well as create new ones. Proliferation detection seeks to detect and characterize attempts by state and non-state actors to acquire nuclear weapons or associated technology, materials, or knowledge. Such a mission is vitally important for global stability and security but is notoriously difficult. By leveraging advances in AI, exciting opportunities exist to enhance the proliferation detection regime. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) seeks to leverage the capabilities of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) national laboratories and other partners to develop AI systems that can accomplish otherwise impossible tasks in support of proliferation detection. As part of its efforts, the portfolio has created a series of workshops on Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection to help define the requirements for suitable AI systems, share successful research and best practices, and foster connection and understanding between the relevant parties including researchers and end-users. Each workshop in the series focuses on a specific and critical aspect of AI to enable it to accomplish proliferation detection objectives. The first workshop focused on explainability techniques; the second workshop and the topic of this report, covers methods for incorporating domain awareness into AI. The Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection Workshop: Domain-Aware Methods took place virtually over two days in February 2021 and included four keynote presentations, 22 technical presentations, and a concluding panel. The presentations, discussions, and workshop findings are summarized in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Plant Disease Detection Technology Assessment

Visual inspections by US Customs and Border Protection agriculture specialists have identified approximately 20,000 regulated, quarantined pests each year in agricultural products entering the United States. Most of these pests identified in the Agriculture Quarantine and Inspection (AQI) program are insects. Many pathogens are difficult to detect in agricultural products, particularly in early stages of infection. New technologies can help to detect plant pathogens and the diseases that they cause. This technology assessment was performed for the US Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T) through the Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Defense (FAV-D) program to identify emerging technologies that could address this hard problem. These emerging technologies differ in their diagnostic sensitivities and specificities, as well as in their measurement time and training requirements. New instruments that detect volatile organic compounds characteristic of plant disease or pathogens could provide a less invasive inspection method. Dogs, which can successfully detect many concealed agricultural products, have also been trained to detect some plant pests and pathogens. Simple immunological tests offer sensitive and specific detection of many pathogens at the point of use. Advanced imaging methods that use AI to sort fruits and vegetables and recognize anomalies at high speeds could be used in cooperation with exporters to improve food quality and reduce pests. Advances in nucleic acid–based detection methods that have become gold standards for confirmatory diagnostics are now making those methods available for faster, point-of-use detection. These new methods should be developed in the context of AQI operational requirements, which apply risk-based sampling protocols to protect agriculture and facilitate commerce and passenger transit.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications

Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗