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At least 145 records · Page 8

A New Shutdown Dose Rate Benchmark Problem for Representative Fusion Applications

Here, this work introduces a new benchmark problem for calculating shutdown dose rates (SDDRs) aimed at fusion reactor applications. The model is designed to represent a simplified version of a typical ITER port plug. The responses of interest include neutron flux, gamma flux, and gamma SDDR at 12 different locations scattered throughout the port. This article outlines the geometry specifications of the problem, provides material definitions for the components, specifies the required responses to be calculated, and presents the source definition information. The need for this benchmark arises from the limited availability of publicly accessible references, with only one benchmark representing the typical dimensions and materials found in fusion systems. This existing benchmark has been cited extensively, reflecting the demand within the scientific community to test both established and novel workflows for SDDR calculations. However, since its presentation at a conference in 2011, the results have become increasingly well known. Moreover, the absence of formal publication and peer review has led to the details of this benchmark being extracted from secondary sources, such as subsequent studies that reference it. As a result, analysts are left with significant flexibility in interpreting the key parameters, which can be adjusted to account for unknown systematic errors, ultimately reproducing the already well-known responses. This new benchmark serves as an updated version of that earlier work, with the aim of providing a more reliable description of the materials and their impurities, which is crucial for assessing activation and subsequent gamma emission. Additionally, it seeks to provide a geometry that more closely represents an ITER port plug. The improvements in the problem definition will lead to a more reproducible benchmark problem, while also presenting the radiation transport community with a completely new challenge. The results will be published in a future article to allow analysts adequate time to analyze this problem independently.

Benchmark↗

Technology readiness assessment of magnetohydrodynamic stability control

The technology readiness level scale is revised with clear definitions for magnetohydrodynamic stability control technologies for magnetic confinement fusion. The definitions are in the form of a sentence with three dimensions, which are the system complexity, the test environment, and the cost. A clear and simple definition is sought after to make an assessment based on the evidence which is agreeable to the fusion energy development community. A sample technology readiness assessment (TRA) for the electron cyclotron current drive-based control of neoclassical tearing mode for ST Advanced Reactor, using the proposed scale, reveals that the risk of a TRA being misinterpreted is high, which can only be avoided with an understanding of the procedure described in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A redefinition of the halo boundary leads to a simple yet accurate halo model of large-scale structure

ABSTRACT We present a model for the halo–mass correlation function that explicitly incorporates halo exclusion and allows for a redefinition of the halo boundary in a flexible way. We assume that haloes trace mass in a way that can be described using a single scale-independent bias parameter. However, our model exhibits scale-dependent biasing due to the impact of halo-exclusion, the use of a ‘soft’ (i.e. not infinitely sharp) halo boundary, and differences in the one halo term contributions to ξhm and ξmm. These features naturally lead us to a redefinition of the halo boundary that lies at the ‘by eye’ transition radius from the one-halo to the two-halo term in the halo–mass correlation function. When adopting our proposed definition, our model succeeds in describing the halo–mass correlation function with $\approx 2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ residuals over the radial range 0.1 h−1 Mpc < r < 80 h−1 Mpc, and for halo masses in the range 1013 h−1 M⊙ < M < 1015 h−1 M⊙. Our proposed halo boundary is related to the splashback radius by a roughly constant multiplicative factor. Taking the 87 percentile as reference we find rt/Rsp ≈ 1.3. Surprisingly, our proposed definition results in halo abundances that are well described by the Press–Schechter mass function with δsc = 1.449 ± 0.004. The clustering bias parameter is offset from the standard background-split prediction by $\approx 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}\!-\!15{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. This level of agreement is comparable to that achieved with more standard halo definitions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A better way to define dark matter haloes

ABSTRACT Dark matter haloes have long been recognized as one of the fundamental building blocks of large-scale structure formation models. Despite their importance – or perhaps because of it! – halo definitions continue to evolve towards more physically motivated criteria. Here, we propose a new definition that is physically motivated, effectively unique, and parameter-free: ‘A dark matter halo is comprised of the collection of particles orbiting in their own self-generated potential’. This definition is enabled by the fact that, even with as few as ≈300 particles per halo, nearly every particle in the vicinity of a halo can be uniquely classified as either orbiting or infalling based on its dynamical history. For brevity, we refer to haloes selected in this way as physical haloes. We demonstrate that (1) the mass function of physical haloes is Press–Schechter, provided the critical threshold for collapse is allowed to vary slowly with peak height; and (2) the peak-background split prediction of the clustering amplitude of physical haloes is statistically consistent with the simulation data, with accuracy no worse than ≈5 per cent.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Tracing the green valley with entropic thresholding

ABSTRACT The green valley represents the population of galaxies that are transitioning from the actively star-forming blue cloud to the passively evolving red sequence. Studying the properties of the green valley galaxies is crucial for our understanding of the exact mechanisms and processes that drive this transition. The green valley does not have a universally accepted definition. The boundaries of the green valley are often determined by empirical lines that are subjective and vary across studies. We present an unambiguous definition of the green valley in the colour–stellar mass plane using the entropic thresholding. We first divide the galaxy population into the blue cloud and the red sequence based on a colour threshold that minimizes the intraclass variance and maximizes the interclass variance. Our method splits the region between the mean colours of the blue cloud and the red sequence into three parts by maximizing the total entropy of that region. We repeat our analysis in a number of independent stellar mass bins to define the boundaries of the green valley in the colour–mass diagram. Our method provides a robust and natural definition of the green valley.

Pandey, Biswajit (ORCID:000000017876595X)↗

Ab initio calculations of third-order elastic coefficients

Third-order elasticity (TOE) theory predicts strain-induced changes in second-order elastic coefficients (SOECs) and can model elastic wave propagation in stressed media. Although third-order elastic tensors have been determined based on first principles in previous studies, their current definition is based on an expansion of thermodynamic energy in terms of the Lagrangian strain near the natural, or zero pressure, reference state. This definition is inconvenient for predictions of SOECs under significant initial stresses. Therefore, when TOE theory is necessary to study the strain dependence of elasticity, the seismological community has resorted to an empirical version of the theory. This study reviews the thermodynamic definition of the third-order elastic tensor and proposes using an “effective” third-order elastic tensor. An explicit expression for the effective third-order elastic tensor is given and verified. Additionally, we extend the ab initio approach to calculate third-order elastic tensors under finite pressure and apply it to two cubic systems, namely, NaCl and MgO. As applications and validations, we evaluate (a) strain-induced changes in SOECs and (b) pressure derivatives of SOECs based on ab initio calculations. Good agreement between third-order elasticity-based predictions and numerically calculated values confirms the validity of our theory.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Laser melting modes in metal powder bed fusion additive manufacturing

In laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing of metals, extreme thermal conditions create many highly dynamic physical phenomena such as vaporization and recoil, Marangoni convection, and protrusion and keyhole instability. Collectively however, the full set of phenomena is too complicated for practical applications and, in reality, the melting modes are used as a guideline for printing. With increasing local material temperature beyond the boiling point, the mode can change from conduction to keyhole. These mode designations ignore laser-matter interaction details but in many cases are adequate to determine the approximate microstructures and hence the properties of the build. To date, no consistent, common, and coherent definitions have been agreed upon because of historic limitations in melt pool and vapor depression morphology measurements. Here, we distinguish process-based definitions of different melting modes from those based on postmortem evidence. The latter are mainly derived from the transverse cross-sections of the fusion zone, whereas the former come directly from time-resolved x-ray imaging of melt pool and vapor depression morphologies. These process-based definitions are more strict and physically sound, and they offer new guidelines for laser additive manufacturing practices and create new research directions. Further, we highlight the significance of the keyhole, which substantially enhances the laser energy absorption by the melt pool. Recent studies strongly suggest that stable-keyhole laser melting enables efficient, sustainable, and robust additive manufacturing. The realization of this scenario demands the development of multiphysics models, signal translations from morphology to other feasible signals, and in-process metrology across platforms and scales.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

CAN-D: A Modular Four-Step Pipeline for Comprehensively Decoding Controller Area Network Data

Controller area networks (CANs) are a broadcast protocol for real-time communication of critical vehicle subsystems. Original equipment manufacturers of passenger vehicles hold secret their mappings of CAN data to vehicle signals, and these definitions vary according to make, model, and year. Without these mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle information hidden in the CAN packets is uninterpretable, severely impeding vehicle-related research, including CAN cybersecurity and privacy studies, aftermarket tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, and fault diagnosis to name a few. Guided by the four-part CAN signal definition, we present CAN-D (CAN-Decoder), a modular, four-step pipeline for identifying each signal's boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (bit-to-integer encoding), and by leveraging diagnostic standards, augmenting a subset of the extracted signals with meaningful, physical interpretation. En route to CAN-D, we provide a comprehensive review of the CAN signal reverse engineering research. All previous methods ignore endianness and signedness, rendering them incapable of decoding many standard CAN signal definitions. Incorporating endianness grows the search space from 128 to 4.72E21 signal tokenizations and introduces a web of changing dependencies. In response, we formulate, formally analyze, and provide an efficient solution to an optimization problem, allowing identification of the optimal set of signal boundaries and byte orderings. In addition, we provide two novel, state-of-the-art signal boundary classifiers—both of which are superior to previous approaches in precision and recall in three different test scenarios—and the first signedness classification algorithm, which exhibits a $>$ 97% F-score. Altogether, CAN-D is the only solution with the potential to extract any CAN signal that is also the state of the art. In evaluation on 10 vehicles of different makes, CAN-D's average $\ell ^1$ error is five times better (81% less) than all previous methods and exhibits lower average error, even when considering only signals that meet prior methods’ assumptions. Finally, CAN-D is implemented in lightweight hardware, allowing for an on-board diagnostic (OBD-II) plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Does Antimatter Fall Up?

Antimatter is one of those things that sound like science fiction, rather than science fact. Yet it is a very real substance, predicted in 19281 and discovered in 19322. While the story of antimatter is rich and complex3, there is a common question often asked by introductory students, which is “Does antimatter fall up?” This question is far more subtle than appears at first blush, with unexpected facets that can lead to interesting classroom discussion involving the nature and definition of matter. Furthermore, while the theory of general relativity weighs in on the topic, as with all serious physics questions, the definitive answer requires an empirical test. In this article, I will briefly introduce what antimatter is, describe some of the interesting intellectual exercises that can arise from considering the effect of gravity on antimatter, and finally conclude with the results of a recent experiment that definitively answer the question.

Lincoln, Don [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000205997407)↗

Dynamic Retrieval Augmented Generation of Ontologies using Artificial Intelligence (DRAGON-AI)

Ontologies are fundamental components of informatics infrastructure in domains such as biomedical, environmental, and food sciences, representing consensus knowledge in an accurate and computable form. However, their construction and maintenance demand substantial resources and necessitate substantial collaboration between domain experts, curators, and ontology experts. We present Dynamic Retrieval Augmented Generation of Ontologies using AI (DRAGON-AI), an ontology generation method employing Large Language Models (LLMs) and Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG). DRAGON-AI can generate textual and logical ontology components, drawing from existing knowledge in multiple ontologies and unstructured text sources.We assessed performance of DRAGON-AI on de novo term construction across ten diverse ontologies, making use of extensive manual evaluation of results. Our method has high precision for relationship generation, but has slightly lower precision than from logic-based reasoning. Our method is also able to generate definitions deemed acceptable by expert evaluators, but these scored worse than human-authored definitions. Notably, evaluators with the highest level of confidence in a domain were better able to discern flaws in AI-generated definitions. We also demonstrated the ability of DRAGON-AI to incorporate natural language instructions in the form of GitHub issues.These findings suggest DRAGON-AI's potential to substantially aid the manual ontology construction process. However, our results also underscore the importance of having expert curators and ontology editors drive the ontology generation process.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Tracking cropland transitions: A comparative analysis of U.S. land cover change data

There are a growing number of land cover data available for the conterminous United States, supporting various applications ranging from biofuel regulatory decisions to habitat conservation assessments. These datasets vary in their source information, frequency of data collection and reporting, land class definitions, categorical detail, and spatial scale and time intervals of representation. These differences limit direct comparison, contribute to disagreements among studies, confuse stakeholders, and hamper our ability to confidently report key land cover trends in the U.S. Here we assess changes in cropland derived from the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) dataset from the U.S. Geological Survey and compare them with analyses of three established land cover datasets across the coterminous U.S. from 2008-2017: (1) the National Resources Inventory (NRI), (2) a dataset Lark et al. 2020 derived from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and (3) a dataset from Potapov et al. 2022. LCMAP reports more stable cropland and less stable noncropland in all comparisons, likely due to its more expansive definition of cropland which includes managed grasslands (pasture and hay). Despite these differences, net cropland expansion from all four datasets was comparable (5.18-6.33 million acres), although the geographic extent and type of conversion differed. LCMAP projected the largest cropland expansion in the southern Great Plains, whereas other datasets projected the largest expansion in the northwestern and central Midwest. Most of the pixel-level disagreements (86%) between LCMAP and Lark et al. 2020 were due to definitional differences among datasets, whereas the remainder (14%) were from a variety of causes. Cropland expansion in the LCMAP likely reflects conversions of more natural areas, whereas cropland expansion in other data sources also captures conversion of managed pasture to cropland. The particular research question considered (e.g., habitat versus soil carbon) should influence which data source is more appropriate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE EV Data Collection - Charging Data

Charging data are collected from one of three sources, each with varying levels of additional information. These sources, in approximate order from most to least additional information, are: • The electric vehicle supply equipment (charger) • Onboard the vehicle itself • From a utility submeter. Many chargers provide software that allows for the collection and reporting of charging session data. If unavailable, data may be recorded by the charging vehicle’s onboard systems. If neither of these options is available, data can be acquired from utility submeters that simply track the energy flowing to one or more chargers. Data collected directly from the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) are typically the most accurate and highest frequency. However, it is not always possible to discern which exact vehicle is being charged during any one session. EVSE-side data can be identified where a single charger ID but a range of vehicle IDs are present (e.g., CH001, EV001-EV005). Data collected from the vehicle’s onboard systems usually does not provide information on which exact charger is being used. Vehicle-side data can be identified where a single Vehicle ID but a range of Charger IDs are present (e.g., EV001, CH001-CH005). Data collected from utility submeters provide no information on which specific vehicle is charging or which specific charger is in use. Submeter data can be identified where multiple Vehicle IDs and multiple Charger IDs are present, but only a single Fleet ID is present (e.g., EV001-EV005, CH001-CH005, Fleet01). The **Charge Data Daily/Session Dictionaries** contains definitions for each available parameter collected as part of an individual charging session, aggregated at either a daily or session level. The parameters available will vary between vehicles and chargers. The **Charger Attributes** table contains specific charger characteristics, coded to at least one anonymous Charger ID and linked to either a single or a range of Vehicle IDs. Vehicle ID can be used as a key between charging data and vehicle attribute tables. The **Charger Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter collected on the physical and operational characteristics of the charging hardware itself. The **Vehicle Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s physical and functional attributes and fleet context. The **Vehicle Attributes** table contains specific vehicle characteristics, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables, and in cases where charging data are supplied, links a vehicle with the charger(s) that supplied it power. The **Charging Data** tables contain the data from each charger’s operations, coded to at least one anonymous Charger ID and linked to either a single or a range of Vehicle IDs. Vehicle ID can be used as a key between charging data and vehicle attribute tables. Data is being uploaded quarterly through 2023 and subject to change until the conclusion of the project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantum minimal surfaces from quantum error correction

We show that complementary state-specific reconstruction of logical (bulk) operators is equivalent to the existence of a quantum minimal surface prescription for physical (boundary) entropies. This significantly generalizes both sides of an equivalence previously shown by Harlow[1]; in particular, we do not require the entanglement wedge to be the same for all states in the code space. In developing this theorem, we construct an emergent bulk geometry for general quantum codes, defining ``areas'' associated to arbitrary logical subsystems, and argue that this definition is ``functionally unique.'' We also formalize a definition of bulk reconstruction that we call ``state-specific product unitary’’ reconstruction. This definition captures the quantum error correction (QEC) properties present in holographic codes and has potential independent interest as a very broad generalization of QEC; it includes most traditional versions of QEC as special cases. Our results extend to approximate codes, and even to the ``non-isometric codes'' that seem to describe the interior of a black hole at late times.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Distributed Wind Resilience Metrics for Electric Energy Delivery Systems: Comprehensive Literature Review

While most people have a general concept of what it means to be “resilient,” an examination of definitions from different sources reveals that there are key commonalities but key differences as well. The lack of a generally accepted definition and application of resilience extends to electric energy delivery systems. Without an accepted definition, it is difficult to implement programs or processes to improve resiliency. In this paper, existing work from industry, regulatory bodies, and national laboratories to define and apply resilience to electric energy delivery systems is studied to understand the key components to define resilience and better understand associated metrics. This understanding is then applied to distributed wind for a specific example of how resilience of a system is affected by the technologies and generation sources used to support it. A key finding is that there is no “one size fits all” process for resilience. Each system has a “distinctiveness” characteristic, which qualifies the possibility of differences in resilience due to different threats, geography, stakeholders, risk tolerance, and mitigations. The distinctiveness characteristic extends to distributed wind, where different configurations may lend the distributed wind to contribute to the resilience of systems in a variety of ways. The findings of this research demonstrate the need for a resilience framework that can be readily applied by stakeholders to improve resilience based on the specific system, threat, risk tolerance and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Artificial Intelligence for Natural Gas Utilities: A Primer

Modern natural gas utilities face numerous challenges and competing priorities from various stakeholders. Policymakers, customers, and advocacy groups want to see gas utilities improve performance on safety, reliability, resilience, affordability, and environmental stewardship. State utility regulators — public utility commissions — are responsible for overseeing utility performance, ensuring that ratepayer funds are being spent in the public interest, and aligning utility goals with public goals. The use of new technologies is critical to enabling cost-effective performance on these attributes. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a widely used term among utilities and regulators, but the term means different things to different stakeholders, and it is often used to describe data analytics approaches that fall short of the formal definition of AI, which is: “…the ability of a machine to receive inputs and produce a behavior or reaction similar to that of an intelligent human being.” AI (and related tools, techniques, and technologies) can help utilities solve current and emerging challenges. By combining customer and system data with analytical tools and technologies, AI can augment human decision-makers by assisting in identifying problems and events before they occur, enabling resources to be more efficiently directed across utility infrastructure. The intended primary audience for this primer is state regulators, although utilities and other stakeholders might also find it useful and relevant to improve their awareness of AI. The objectives of this primer are to: (a) offer a set of broadly applicable definitions for AI and related terms, allowing regulators, utilities, and other stakeholders to speak the same language; (b) discuss how AI is currently being implemented in the gas utility sector; and (c) understand the challenges affecting AI solutions and how tools might be implemented in the future. This primer fits within NARUC’s goals of providing impartial information to improve the ability of public utility commissions to regulate in the public interest. As such, this primer does not seek to recommend AI over any other investment, nor does it endorse any particular vendor, product, or approach. It does seek to prepare state regulators to oversee AI investments by sharing information about the current landscape of commercially available tools. To these ends, the primer is organized as follows: Section I discusses the current environment in which natural gas utilities operate and how AI, when thoughtfully designed and implemented, can enable utilities to achieve performance goals; Section II offers definitions of AI and related terms within the data analytics discipline; Section III provides three current opportunities for which AI can offer solutions: replacing aging gas distribution infrastructure, preventing excavator damage to gas distribution infrastructure, and improving energy efficiency programs. This section discusses each problem statement in detail. Second, Section III includes a discussion of how costs and benefits of investments to solve each problem are measured. And third, this section offers real-world examples of utility implementation of AI solutions; Section IV discusses challenges with implementing AI, both from the perspective of utilities and regulators; Section V suggests areas in which AI could feasibly be implemented in the near future; Finally, Section VI offers concluding thoughts and areas for further research.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The Baseline Performance Reference for Irradiance in PV System Applications

This report proposes the definition of a new baseline performance reference (BPR). The definition goes beyond existing standards pertaining to photovoltaic (PV) reference cells and devices to define the response under all possible operating conditions in the field. Field evaluations using BPR devices will be more sensitive to performance anomalies than pyranometers because they track PV system power output more closely. At the same time, they will be able to detect a broader range of performance anomalies than traditional matched reference devices, which might have matching defects. The BPR definition also opens the door to new practices in resource assessment and yield prediction. Solar resource data can be collected or modeled and validated directly as BPR irradiance, and PV system simulations based on BPR irradiance need fewer assumptions and less processing to obtain the effective irradiance on modules. As a result, lower uncertainty in yield assessments can be expected.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

County Land-Use Regulations for Solar Energy Development in Colorado

We present a survey of county-level policies on ground-mounted solar development across Colorado, including both solar-specific ordinances as well as general land-use code that might be applicable in counties without solar-specific policies. This report provides an accessible reference for stakeholders interested in identifying counties with particular regulations or in analyzing the diversity of regulations across Colorado. We defined a set of search criteria to find information on solar definitions and classifications, permitting processes, and use-specific requirements in each of Colorado's 64 counties. With those criteria, we reviewed relevant ordinances, land-use code, and comprehensive and master plans. If any uncertainties were identified, we contacted county officials for clarification. The findings are categorized and mapped to illustrate the distribution of key policies adopted across Colorado's counties on the following topics: solar definitions, solar siting policy documentation, categorization of PV systems for permitting, 1041 permitting, solar on agricultural land, panel height restrictions, fencing requirements, vegetation management, visual impacts, decommissioning plans, and financial assurance for decommissioning. Additionally, we identify and discuss policies that might impact the deployment of agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining both agriculture and solar on the same land, which might not fit neatly in existing zoning definitions and solar-specific regulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗