Multi-Agent Based Attack-Resilient System Integrity Protection for Smart Grid
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project
The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.
Saik Anam Siam↗
Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project
The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.
Saik Anam Siam↗
Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems
In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.
CPH systems↗
Theory of the decision/problem state
A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.
Dieterly, D. L.↗
Development of a tree classifier for discrimination of surface mine activity from Landsat digital data
In a cooperative project with the Geological Survey of Alabama, the Mississippi State Remote Sensing Applications Program has developed a single purpose, decision-tree classifier using band-ratioing techniques to discriminate various stages of surface mining activity. The tree classifier has four levels and employs only two channels in classification at each level. An accurate computation of the amount of disturbed land resulting from the mining activity can be made as a product of the classification output. The utilization of Landsat data provides a cost-efficient, rapid, and accurate means of monitoring surface mining activities.
Solomon, J. L.↗
Simplified Decoding of Convolutional Codes
Some complicated intermediate steps shortened or eliminated. Decoding of convolutional error-correcting digital codes simplified by new errortrellis syndrome technique. In new technique, syndrome vector not computed. Instead, advantage taken of newly-derived mathematical identities simplify decision tree, folding it back on itself into form called "error trellis." This trellis graph of all path solutions of syndrome equations. Each path through trellis corresponds to specific set of decisions as to received digits. Existing decoding algorithms combined with new mathematical identities reduce number of combinations of errors considered and enable computation of correction vector directly from data and check bits as received.
Truong, T. K.↗
Multi-parametric analysis for mixed integer linear programming: An application to transmission upgrade and congestion management
Upgrading the capacity of existing transmission lines is essential for meeting the growing energy demands, facilitating the integration of renewable energy, and ensuring the security of the transmission system. This study focuses on the selection of lines whose capacities and by how much should be expanded from the perspective of the Independent System Operators (ISOs) to minimize the total system cost. We employ advanced multi-parametric programming and an enhanced branch-and-bound algorithm to address complex mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems, considering multi-period time constraints and physical limitations of generators and transmission lines. To characterize the various decisions in transmission expansion, we model the increased capacity of existing lines as parameters within a specified range. This study first relaxes the binary variables to continuous variables and applies the Lagrange method and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to obtain optimal solutions and identify critical regions associated with active and inactive constraints. Moreover, we extend the traditional branch-and-bound (B&B) method by determining the problem’s upper and lower bounds at each node of the B&B decision tree, helping to manage computational challenges in large-scale MILP problems. Here, we compare the difference between the upper and lower bounds to obtain an approximate optimal solution within the decision-makers’ tolerable error range. In addition, the first derivative of the objective function on the parameters of each line is used to inform the selection of lines for easing congestion and maximizing social welfare. Finally, the capacity upgrades are selected by weighing the reductions in system costs against the expense of upgrading line capacities. The findings are supported by numerical simulations and provide transmission-line planners with decision-making guidance.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Knowledge assisted diagnosis of mood disorders using DSM-3
As part of an Expert Systems class at the University of Houston Clear Lake, a system has been developed using CLIPS to allow a clinical psychologist or psychiatrist to diagnose mood disturbances by providing answers to questions corresponding to branches of a DSM-III criteria tree. Experienced clinicians may assert indications of the client's behavior in order to circumvent multiple levels of the tree, thus speeding diagnosis. An explanation facility was developed for validation of the diagnosis . It also allows for 'what if' scenarios by allowing the clinician to move backwards from the diagnosis to any decision branch and alter the answer previously provided. The system was implemented with a limited vocabulary of symptoms associated primarily with depressive disorders. However, the design supports the addition of vocabulary modules and knowledge bases for other types of disorders. The system currently has applicability in an instructional setting. With the addition of a more complete vocabulary, it could have applicability in a clinical setting. The overall design will support any application where determinations are made via a decision tree.
Fritz, Robert H.↗
Automatic Search of Cataclysmic Variables Based on LightGBM in LAMOST-DR7
The search for special and rare celestial objects has always played an important role in astronomy. Cataclysmic Variables (CVs) are special and rare binary systems with accretion disks. Most CVs are in the quiescent period, and their spectra have the emission lines of Balmer series, HeI, and HeII. A few CVs in the outburst period have the absorption lines of Balmer series. Owing to the scarcity of numbers, expanding the spectral data of CVs is of positive significance for studying the formation of accretion disks and the evolution of binary star system models. At present, the research for astronomical spectra has entered the era of Big Data. The Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopy Telescope (LAMOST) has produced more than tens of millions of spectral data. the latest released LAMOST-DR7 includes 10.6 million low-resolution spectral data in 4926 sky regions, providing ideal data support for searching CV candidates. To process and analyze the massive amounts of spectral data, this study employed the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm, which is based on the ensemble tree model to automatically conduct the search in LAMOST-DR7. Finally, 225 CV candidates were found and four new CV candidates were verified by SIMBAD and published catalogs. This study also built the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models and used Accuracy, Precision, Recall, the F1-score, and the ROC curve to compare the four models comprehensively. Experimental results showed that LightGBM is more efficient. The search for CVs based on LightGBM not only enriches the existing CV spectral library, but also provides a reference for the data mining of other rare celestial objects in massive spectral data.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
KIPSE1: A Knowledge-based Interactive Problem Solving Environment for data estimation and pattern classification
A knowledge-based interactive problem solving environment called KIPSE1 is presented. The KIPSE1 is a system built on a commercial expert system shell, the KEE system. This environment gives user capability to carry out exploratory data analysis and pattern classification tasks. A good solution often consists of a sequence of steps with a set of methods used at each step. In KIPSE1, solution is represented in the form of a decision tree and each node of the solution tree represents a partial solution to the problem. Many methodologies are provided at each node to the user such that the user can interactively select the method and data sets to test and subsequently examine the results. Otherwise, users are allowed to make decisions at various stages of problem solving to subdivide the problem into smaller subproblems such that a large problem can be handled and a better solution can be found.
Han, Chia Yung↗
Integrating Embodied Carbon Knowledge for Design Decisions: Preprint
Measuring energy consumption of buildings is well established, and techniques to evaluate the carbon associated with operating buildings are improving. Embodied carbon of buildings is more complex as it considers the release of carbon throughout the building material supply chain and building material end of life fate. Decisions made early during the design and construction of the building can influence and potentially reduce the embodied carbon of buildings. The design and construction communities are uniquely positioned to make decisions that reduce embodied carbon. The objective of this project is to understand barriers to low carbon design and delivery and to point the design and construction communities to useful resources that will result in decisions that reduce embodied carbon. The outcomes of this work include educational resources that familiarize designers and contractors with embodied carbon and life cycle assessments (LCA), case studies that focus on design changes from LCA results, an overview of LCA tools, and examples of readily available, cost-effective design and construction steps to lower embodied carbon. We present an evaluation of existing resources, organized in a decision tree guidance, and identify gaps for further resource development. Through this evaluation process we investigated ways to streamline the process of identifying barriers to implementing solutions quickly.
design professional decisions↗
An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements
"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.
Efficent ATM systems↗
Active meta-learning for predicting and selecting perovskite crystallization experiments
Autonomous experimentation systems use algorithms and data from prior experiments to select and perform new experiments in order to meet a specified objective. In most experimental chemistry situations, there is a limited set of prior historical data available, and acquiring new data may be expensive and time consuming, which places constraints on machine learning methods. Active learning methods prioritize new experiment selection by using machine learning model uncertainty and predicted outcomes. Meta-learning methods attempt to construct models that can learn quickly with a limited set of data for a new task. Here in this paper, we applied the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) model and the Probabilistic LATent model for Incorporating Priors and Uncertainty in few-Shot learning (PLATIPUS) approach, which extends MAML to active learning, to the problem of halide perovskite growth by inverse temperature crystallization. Using a dataset of 1870 reactions conducted using 19 different organoammonium lead iodide systems, we determined the optimal strategies for incorporating historical data into active and meta-learning models to predict reaction compositions that result in crystals. We then evaluated the best three algorithms (PLATIPUS and active-learning k-nearest neighbor and decision tree algorithms) with four new chemical systems in experimental laboratory tests. With a fixed budget of 20 experiments, PLATIPUS makes superior predictions of reaction outcomes compared to other active-learning algorithms and a random baseline.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Learning in continuous action space for developing high dimensional potential energy models
Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches that combine a tree search with deep learning have found remarkable success in searching exorbitantly large, albeit discrete action spaces, as in chess, Shogi and Go. Many real-world materials discovery and design applications, however, involve multi-dimensional search problems and learning domains that have continuous action spaces. Exploring high-dimensional potential energy models of materials is an example. Traditionally, these searches are time consuming (often several years for a single bulk system) and driven by human intuition and/or expertise and more recently by global/local optimization searches that have issues with convergence and/or do not scale well with the search dimensionality. Here, in a departure from discrete action and other gradient-based approaches, we introduce a RL strategy based on decision trees that incorporates modified rewards for improved exploration, efficient sampling during playouts and a “window scaling scheme" for enhanced exploitation, to enable efficient and scalable search for continuous action space problems. Using high-dimensional artificial landscapes and control RL problems, we successfully benchmark our approach against popular global optimization schemes and state of the art policy gradient methods, respectively. We demonstrate its efficacy to parameterize potential models (physics based and high-dimensional neural networks) for 54 different elemental systems across the periodic table as well as alloys. We analyze error trends across different elements in the latent space and trace their origin to elemental structural diversity and the smoothness of the element energy surface. Broadly, our RL strategy will be applicable to many other physical science problems involving search over continuous action spaces.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Predicting the Operational Acceptance of Airborne Flight Reroute Requests Using Data Mining
For tools that generate more efficient flight routes or reroute advisories, it is important to ensure compatibility of automation and autonomy decisions with human objectives so as to ensure acceptability by the human operators. In this paper, the authors developed a proof of concept predictor of operational acceptability for route changes during a flight. Such a capability could have applications in automation tools that identify more efficient routes around airspace impacted by weather or congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The predictor is based on applying data mining techniques, including logistic regression, a decision tree, a support vector machine, a random forest and Adaptive Boost, to historical flight plan amendment data reported during operations and field experiments. Cross validation was used for model development, while nested cross validation was used to validate the models. The model found to have the best performance in predicting air traffic controller acceptance or rejection of a route change, using the available data from Fort Worth Air Traffic Control Center and its adjacent Centers, was the random forest, with an F-score of 0.77. This result indicates that the operational acceptance of reroute requests does indeed have some level of predictability, and that, with suitable data, models can be trained to predict the operational acceptability of reroute requests. Such models may ultimately be used to inform route selection by decision support tools, contributing to the development of increasingly autonomous systems that are capable of routing aircraft with less human input than is currently the case.
Operational Acceptability↗
A Dynamic Landslide Hazard Monitoring Framework for the Lower Mekong Region
The Lower Mekong region is one of the most landslide-prone areas of the world. Despite the need for dynamic characterization of landslide hazard zones within the region, it is largely understudied for several reasons. Dynamic and integrated understanding of landslide processes requires landslide inventories across the region, which have not been available previously. Computational limitations also hamper regional landslide hazard assessment, including accessing and processing remotely sensed information. Finally, open-source software and modelling packages are required to address regional landslide hazard analysis. Leveraging an open-source data-driven global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness model framework, this study develops a region-specific dynamic landslide hazard system leveraging satellite-based Earth observation data to assess landslide hazards across the lower Mekong region. A set of landslide inventories were prepared from high-resolution optical imagery using advanced image-processing techniques. Several static and dynamic explanatory variables (i.e., rainfall, soil moisture, slope, relief, distance to roads, distance to faults, distance to rivers) were considered during the model development phase. An extreme gradient boosting decision tree model was trained for the monsoon period of 2015–2019 and the model was evaluated with independent inventory information for the 2020 monsoon period. The model performance demonstrated considerable skill using receiver operating characteristic curve statistics, with Area Under the Curve values exceeding 0.95. The model architecture was designed to use near-real-time data, and it can be implemented in a cloud computing environment (i.e., Google Cloud Platform) for the routine assessment of landslide hazards in the Lower Mekong region. This work was developed in collaboration with scientists at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center as part of the NASA SERVIR Program’s Mekong hub. The goal of this work is to develop a suite of tools and services on accessible open-source platforms that support and enable stakeholder communities to better assess landslide hazard and exposure at local to regional scales for decision making and planning.
Nishan Kumar Biswas↗
A design philosophy for multi-layer neural networks with applications to robot control
A system is proposed which receives input information from many sensors that may have diverse scaling, dimension, and data representations. The proposed system tolerates sensory information with faults. The proposed self-adaptive processing technique has great promise in integrating the techniques of artificial intelligence and neural networks in an attempt to build a more intelligent computing environment. The proposed architecture can provide a detailed decision tree based on the input information, information stored in a long-term memory, and the adapted rule-based knowledge. A mathematical model for analysis will be obtained to validate the cited hypotheses. An extensive software program will be developed to simulate a typical example of pattern recognition problem. It is shown that the proposed model displays attention, expectation, spatio-temporal, and predictory behavior which are specific to the human brain. The anticipated results of this research project are: (1) creation of a new dynamic neural network structure, and (2) applications to and comparison with conventional multi-layer neural network structures. The anticipated benefits from this research are vast. The model can be used in a neuro-computer architecture as a building block which can perform complicated, nonlinear, time-varying mapping from a multitude of input excitory classes to an output or decision environment. It can be used for coordinating different sensory inputs and past experience of a dynamic system and actuating signals. The commercial applications of this project can be the creation of a special-purpose neuro-computer hardware which can be used in spatio-temporal pattern recognitions in such areas as air defense systems, e.g., target tracking, and recognition. Potential robotics-related applications are trajectory planning, inverse dynamics computations, hierarchical control, task-oriented control, and collision avoidance.
Vadiee, Nader↗