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At least 145 records · Page 8

Scalability of Real-time Distribution Models

This work will focus on developing the capabilities and validating the models for a sub transmission network with multiple feeders and microgrids. To achieve this scale of Hardware-in-the-loop (HitL) simulation, it is necessary to federate and collaborate. The work aims to design the large-scale feeder models to allow federation with complementary testbeds in the future. The feeder would be designed to be reconfigurable to put the system into a variety of modes. Aggregators models will be included in each distribution network’s federate to take control actions and interact with the management systems. Lastly, the feeder model will support large scale resilience studies involving complex Distributed Energy Resources (DER) controls, microgrid studies and emulation of complex data flows in future grid architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Utility Managed Distributed Energy Resources Intelligent Community - UDERMS iCommunity (Final Technical Report)

The Utility Managed Distributed Energy Resources Intelligent Community (UDERMS iCommunity) project, led by PacifiCorp and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (Award No. DEEE0009782), aimed to demonstrate an integrated, utility-managed “behind-the-meter” distributed energy resource (DER) program connecting multifamily, commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings to deliver grid services and improve energy efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Commercialization of Distribution System Load Modeling Tool for Improved DER Interconnection Studies

Residential and commercial buildings have huge potential to contribute value to improve grid resilience by participating grid services. To reveal the significant value, it is critical to estimate the grid service capability from these buildings. Unlike the large-scale distributed energy resources such as wind and solar farms, those buildings need to participate grid services in aggregation, not by individual. Therefore, it is important to appropriately group buildings for aggregation. The load profiles in the same group will have similar characteristics at the same time step, so grid operators can send the grid service signal to the customer group with a higher chance to respond at that time step. In this paper, we develop a load profile clustering method to classify the building-level load profiles for grid service capability estimation. In our two-step clustering approach, we first calculate the total load consumption for each building, clustering the load profiles based on energy consumption level. Then, we further cluster the load profiles in each energy cluster based on the load shape. The parameter selection for each clustering step is discussed. The proposed method is applied on actual building-level load profiles, and the results have proved the effectiveness of this method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems

The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Langmuir adsorption model to assess the impact of silane coupling on nano-dispersion of silica in SBR

Surface active agents are often used to improve dispersion of nanoparticles. Quantitative correlation between these surface-active molecules and nanoscale dispersion is absent from the literature partly because a quantitative measure of nanoscale dispersion does not exist. Recently, we have developed the Virial-van der Waals method to quantify dispersion in nanocomposites using virial coefficients. In this paper, the Langmuir adsorption model is used to quantify the influence of surface-active agents on nano-scale dispersion in terms of the effective second virial coefficient B 2 *. The impact of silane coupling agent on the nano-dispersion and silica aggregate structure in precipitated silica/SBR nanocomposites is demonstrated. It is shown that the higher viscosity SBR matrix led to a greater silica aggregate structural breakup, while lower viscosity matrix improved surface silanization. The isomeric content of the SBR, which impacts the dielectric behavior, impacted whether the system could be modeled through a mean-field or specific interactions. We earlier showed that larger aggregates improve dispersion, and this is reaffirmed in these results. After account is made for aggregate size, nano-scale dispersion improves with the addition of silane coupling agent. The behavior is well modeled using Langmuir monolayer adsorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dispersion of modified fumed silica in elastomeric nanocomposites

In polymer nanocomposites, surface modification of silica aggregates can shield Coulombic interactions that inhibit agglomeration and formation of a network of agglomerates. Surface modification is usually achieved with silane coupling agents although carbon-coating during pyrolytic silica production is also possible. Pyrogenic silica with varying surface carbon contents were dispersed in styrene-butadiene (SBR) rubber to explore the impact on hierarchical dispersion, the emergence of meso-scale structures, and the rheological response. Pristine pyrogenic silica aggregates at concentrations above a critical value (related to the Debye screening length) display correlated meso-scale structures and poor filler network formation in rubber nanocomposites due to the presence of silanol groups on the surface. Here, in the present study, flame synthesized silica with sufficient surface carbon monolayers can mitigate the charge repulsion thereby impacting network structural emergence. The impact of the surface carbon on the van der Waals enthalpic attraction, a * , is determined. The van der Waals model for polymer nanocomposites is drawn through an analogy between thermal energy, k B T, and the accumulated strain, γ. The rheological response of the emergent meso-scale structures depends on the surface density of both carbon and silanol groups.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Community-Scale Energy Efficiency Assessment for Zero Net Energy Using the URBANopt Simulation Platform: Preprint

This project explored an innovative modeling approach for assessing the energy efficiency potential of the existing low-income Oceano neighborhood, in unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, and its effects on renewable generation requirements for achieving zero net energy (ZNE). One particular challenge faced was ascertaining the technical energy savings potential across a large neighborhood in a timely manner. The project overcame this challenge through the use of the URBANopt simulation platform, developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. URBANopt manages the automated model creation, simulation, and result aggregation for different design scenarios of existing or candidate buildings in a large neighborhood. Customized energy efficiency packages considered for the residential and commercial sector in the neighborhood included lighting, HVAC, plug load, water heating, envelope, and energy education measures. As a result of the analysis for the Oceano community, energy efficiency measures that are available through incentive programs may provide a 7.4% reduction in the required distributed energy resource (DER) size, corresponding to a 25,000 ft2 decrease in PV array area, to achieve ZNE. Through this work, a computational tool was developed and is being leveraged by the County of San Luis Obispo (CoSLO). The tool has enabled the CoSLO staff to perform similar analysis of the technical potential for energy efficiency, and an understanding of the DER asset requirements and potential savings in other communities within the county.

building energy modeling↗

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Monolayer Vanadium‐Doped Tungsten Disulfide: A Room‐Temperature Dilute Magnetic Semiconductor

Abstract Dilute magnetic semiconductors (DMS), achieved through substitutional doping of spin‐polarized transition metals into semiconducting systems, enable experimental modulation of spin dynamics in ways that hold great promise for novel magneto–electric or magneto–optical devices, especially for two‐dimensional (2D) systems such as transition metal dichalcogenides that accentuate interactions and activate valley degrees of freedom. Practical applications of 2D magnetism will likely require room‐temperature operation, air stability, and (for magnetic semiconductors) the ability to achieve optimal doping levels without dopant aggregation. Here, room‐temperature ferromagnetic order obtained in semiconducting vanadium‐doped tungsten disulfide monolayers produced by a reliable single‐step film sulfidation method across an exceptionally wide range of vanadium concentrations, up to 12 at% with minimal dopant aggregation, is described. These monolayers develop p‐type transport as a function of vanadium incorporation and rapidly reach ambipolarity. Ferromagnetism peaks at an intermediate vanadium concentration of ~2 at% and decreases for higher concentrations, which is consistent with quenching due to orbital hybridization at closer vanadium–vanadium spacings, as supported by transmission electron microscopy, magnetometry, and first‐principles calculations. Room‐temperature 2D‐DMS provide a new component to expand the functional scope of van der Waals heterostructures and bring semiconducting magnetic 2D heterostructures into the realm of practical application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dispersion of surface-modified, aggregated, fumed silica in polymer nanocomposites

Surface modification of model silica to enhance compatibility in nanocomposites has been widely studied. In addition to model spherical silica, several authors have investigated the impact of surface conditions on compatibility in commercial aggregated carbon black and silica. Here, dispersion is investigated for a series of nanocomposites produced from commercially modified fumed silica mixed with styrene butadiene rubber, polystyrene, and polydimethylsiloxane. Surface modification includes variation in surface hydroxyl content, siloxane, and silane treatment. Qualitatively, hydroxyl groups on the silica surface are considered incompatible with non-polar polymers, while methyl groups are compatible with oleophilic polymers. X-ray scattering was used to analyze the filler aggregate structure before and after dispersion, and the second virial coefficient was used to quantify nanodispersion. The content of surface moieties was determined from Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. It is observed that modified silica can display mean field or specific interactions as reflected by the presence of a correlation peak in x-ray scattering. For systems with specific interactions, a critical ordering concentration is observed related to the free energy change for structuring. A van der Waals model was used to model the second virial coefficient as a function of accumulated strain, yielding the excluded volume and an energetic term. The excluded volume could be predicted from the structural information, and the bound polymer layer was directly related to the surface methyl content, whereas the energetic term was found to synergistically depend on both the methyl and hydroxyl surface content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Diffusion energy barrier of Au on Bi 2 Se 3 : theory and experiment

The stability and diffusion of ultra-thin thermally deposited Au films on Bi 2 Se 3 was studied using scanning tunneling microscopy and density functional theory calculations. The Au/Bi 2 Se 3 interface is of interest as gold is predicted to provide excellent electrical contact while maintaining the spin-polarized characteristics of the electronic states in Bi 2 Se 3 that make the material attractive for spintronic applications. When deposited at room temperature, Au 10 covers the surface with tightly packed islands of nanometer scale dimension. The surface morphology is stable up to 400K. At this annealing temperature, Au atoms have sufficient energy to diffuse across the surface and aggregate into larger nanostructures. At 550K, the Bi 2 Se 3 surface is only sparsely covered, and the Au has formed clusters with length scales 5-10 times larger than the original islands formed at room temperature. Comparison of the experiment and first principle calculation lead to the conclusion that the diffusion energy barrier for Au on Bi 2 Se 3 is as high as 0.47 eV, 15 which is much larger than diffusion barriers on other van der Waals materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Techno-Economic Analysis Using REopt for Community Solar on Multifamily Affordable Housing Properties [Slides]

Multifamily affordable housing (MFAH) providers can identify and prioritize properties in their portfolios for which community solar development is feasible by following portfolio screening steps in a process outlined by NREL. Once MFAH providers have identified the most feasible sites, they can conduct more detailed analyses for a select number of sites to assess how distributed energy resources such as solar plus storage can help them meet their goals. The step is completed using NREL's REopt (https://reopt.nrel.gov/tool), a free techno-economic optimization model that determines DER sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the life cycle cost of energy at a site. This presentation describes how to perform this step using REopt to help MFAH providers answer questions such as: What size solar PV system will result in the most energy bill savings at this site? What size solar-plus-storage system would be needed to power critical loads through a utility grid outage? What is the financial impact of rate switching, net metering, and/or meter aggregation? What percentage of the site's load can be offset with renewable energy? What are the emissions benefits of this renewable generation?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Packetized Energy Management: Coordinating Transmission and Distribution (Final Report)

The project Packetized Energy Management (PEM): Coordinating Transmission and Distribution was part of the ARPA-E NODES program from 2015 to 2023. The high-level goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate novel, scalable, and impactful technologies related to the coordination of networked distributed energy resources (DERs). By demonstrating responsive means by which fleets of DERs could be coordinated to enhance grid operation and reliability, the U.S. could accelerate renewable integration and electrification efforts and meet decarbonization goals.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How to Build a Connected Community: Policies to Promote Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings and Demand Flexibility

Efficient, connected, grid-interactive, smart, and flexible buildings are key to decarbonizing the U.S. energy economy, optimizing energy use, reducing electric consumers’ bills, integrating variable renewable energy resources, and improving the reliability and performance of the nation’s electricity grids. Such grid-interactive efficient buildings have high levels of energy efficiency layered with other distributed energy resources (DERs) and intelligent controls to provide demand flexibility. Policy support is unfolding at the federal, state, and local levels to transform homes and workplaces into state-of-the-art energy-efficient buildings and community-level grid services. This paper starts by describing the potential benefits. Next, it highlights existing policies — with a focus on state-level actions — that support grid-interactive efficient building deployment and demand flexibility. Finally, it identifies current trends and gaps, policies and programs that promote grid-interactive efficient buildings, and aggregations of grid-interactive efficient buildings referred to as Virtual Power Plants.

Schwartz, Lisa C↗

Hierarchical Transactive Control of Flexible Building Loads Under Distribution LMP

With grid modernization efforts, future distribution networks, which consist of various distributed generators and flexible loads, will be more flexible and active. All new network components of distributed energy resources (DERs) drive and enable the transition towards a market-based distribution net-work that seeks the optimal allocation of all DERs. To address challenges associated with DERs, one promising solution is to utilize demand-side flexibility of building loads facilitated by demand response (DR) programs and provide ancillary grid services through distribution-level markets. Under this new paradigm, this paper proposes an efficient DR management strategy incorporating emerging price signals of distribution markets, i.e., distribution locational marginal price (DLMP), based on a hierarchical transactive control approach. The proposed approach establishes a two-layer decision-making framework; the upper layer formulates a bilevel model to obtain an optimal demand response (ODR) under DLMP, and the lower layer employs model-free control to dispatch the (aggregated) ODR to individual end users. Numerical case studies using a modified IEEE 33 test network are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach; load shifting and peak shaving for the distribution system operator and payments’ reduction for end users while maintaining their comfort.

Park, Byungkwon↗

Optimized V1G and V2G Electric Vehicle Fleet Management and Grid Transaction at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, CA

The overall technical goal of the project was to demonstrate an all-electric bi-directional non-tactical fleet at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar that was integrated and controlled with other distributed energy resources (DERs) (i.e., PV, stationary battery, and building loads) to provide resilience to critical electric loads in the event of grid outages, to minimize charging costs, and to provide economic energy resources to electricity markets. In this project, the specific, technical objectives were: 1. Demonstrate that bi-directional electric vehicles can provide critical complementary services to fixed storage batteries in microgrid applications while performing function as non-tactical vehicles. 2. Demonstrate participation of bi-directional (V2G) and unidirectional (V1G) PEVs for demand management and minimization of charging costs. 3. Demonstrate integration of multiple DERs for grid service participation. US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Miramar in San Diego was the site of this electric vehicle-to-microgrid-utility grid test and demonstration project. Existing microgrid assets in this study included (1) a public works building; (2) a 30-kW rooftop photovoltaic (PV) system and (3) a separate 250 kW carport PV system. In this project, six bi-directional V2G vans were located at the MCAS Miramar’s showcase building-scale microgrid to develop and test technical capabilities that V2G can provide in microgrid applications (e.g., cost reduction and resiliency). These resources provided aggregated demand management and simulated participation in current retail DR programs. The vehicles used in this demonstration were selected because they provided functionality that MCAS Miramar needed, 15 passenger transport and facilities work cargo carrying capacity, and bi-directional charging capability that the research project required. All vehicles in this study were manufactured and distributed by VIA Motors, Inc. There were six vehicles total and each was VIA’s VTRUX eREV V2G model, a modified General Motors Chevrolet 2500 2WD van. Three of the vans were configured as passenger vans and the other three were configured as cargo vans. Each van had an on-board bi-direcrtional inverter/charger, Bel Power Solutions model 350INVCHGT150-120-240-8G nominally rated at +/-15 kW. The VIA van’s charging connector follows the J1772 charging protocol. The bi-directional EVSEs demonstrated in this study were manufactured by Coritech, Inc. Each VGI-80-AC charging station enabled enhanced V2G charging capability to a Clipper Creek CS-100 charging module. The enhanced capabilities included ethernet communication following the SEP2.0 protocol with a distributed energy resource function set and an operator screen displaying real-time SOC, voltage, and current. The VGI-80-AC charging stations are classified as level 2 with a maximum current output of 80 A or effectively 19 kW. The VIA van’s onboard charger limited the charging and discharging power to 15 kW in each direction. A control computer was installed in the EWOC and connected to an existing monitor. The V2G control communication network was a completely stand-alone closed system that did not have any connection to any other networks on the base. A cybersecure remote communication connection was created with a cellular modem, firewall hardware, and a virtual private network configuration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Substrate-Directed Dimensional and Phase Control of Peptide Assemblies on Two-Dimensional van der Waals Materials

Understanding and controlling biomolecular self-assembly on van der Waals (vdW) materials has the potential to advance hybrid bioelectronic devices by enabling precise tuning of the interface and modulation of the resulting electronic properties of the biomolecule-vdW heterostructure. However, how surface properties of vdW materials direct biomolecule assembly remains poorly understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigated the assembly of a peptide known to assemble into two-dimensional (2D) crystalline films on MoS 2 on three representative vdW surfaces: WS 2 , MoS 2 , and highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG). Using in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM), we find that assembly is substrate-dependent, resulting in multilayers on WS 2 , monolayers on MoS 2 , and multiple coexisting phases on HOPG. WS 2 exhibits a higher negative charge, strong long-range electrostatic interactions, and extensive hydration layering that may promote multilayer stacking. In contrast, MoS 2 has stronger short-range interactions with the peptides but much weaker long-range interactions and hydration structure, which may favor monolayer formation. Molecular dynamics simulations predict a corresponding switch from monolayer to multilayer aggregates of the adsorbed monomers, reflected in their relative mobilities. On hydrophobic HOPG, the peptides bind most strongly and remain as monomers with high surface mobility. The peptide dimers comprising the basic unit of the crystals are more compact on HOPG, which has a smaller lattice constant than WS 2 or MoS 2 , suggesting strain contributes to stabilizing multiple phases. Our results provide mechanistic insights into how surface charge and hydration structure, and the lattice structure of the substrates governs peptide assembly on vdW materials, offering a framework to rationally control the 2D peptide-vdW heterostructures.

Molecular dynamics simulations↗

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗