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NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗

NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

Zapata, Edgar↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open Architecture for Cost Savings in Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Recently, nuclear power plant build projects in the West have run over budget due to high capital costs and schedule overruns. Compared to other sources of energy, nuclear power plants have higher capital costs. Reactors are often different at every site, resulting in a lack of standardization. Nuclear is expected to compete with other low carbon sources of energy which have lower capital costs making it essential for nuclear to develop ways of reducing costs. Strategies such as standardization, learning rates, modularization, and schedule reduction in advanced reactors can reduce nuclear costs by about 40%. Standardization as a way of cutting capital costs has been explored even in large nuclear power plants. Standardization of certain plant components can result in lower component and installation costs and higher learning from experience. Standardization can be achieved by adopting a criterion of key performance indicators and general design principles for a specific system or component such as the balance of plant. Modularization allows the construction of certain components of SMRs in a factory, which saves time, increases productivity, and encourages higher learning rates. Production learning decreases the time and the cost related to an activity. The potential for modularized components of advanced reactors to be manufactured in factories makes it conducive to achieving higher learning rates. Developing large-capacity nuclear programs through sequential builds cultivates a higher learning rate, which in effect may reduce schedule overruns. Open architecture has been identified as a way to drive standardization among advanced reactor designs and result in cost savings. Open architecture (OA) is defined as a design enabling a diverse supply chain by defining and publishing requirements of systems or equipment in functional and/or interface terms, utilizing technical standards in widespread use. Currently, the nuclear industry’s approach is to use closed architecture, making most designs proprietary. However, collaboration between various advanced reactor vendors and suppliers utilizing the concept of open architecture can result in modular and standardized architecture of subsystems or subcomponents of a nuclear power plant. Completely standardizing nuclear power plants may be impossible, however, certain common subsystems amongst the various reactor designs could be standardized and/or access a wider supply chain and leverage existing learning from other sectors. Open architecture will save time and allocate resources to the parts of the plants that have the most unique features. A key advantage of open architecture is its ability to improve production learning across advanced reactors (AR) types in the industry, by providing and utilizing the same kind of component. Sodium fast reactor (SFR), High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) and Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) are the advanced reactors considered for this project. This paper aims to determine the cost savings in advanced reactor programs due to open architecture learning rate. This work is an extension of work done on light water reactor small modular reactors; the cost methodology was utilized to investigate the impact of open architecture on advanced reactors with a particular focus on sodium fast reactors. The cost data on sodium fast reactors used in the model presented the most adequate information required for the analysis.

Advanced Nuclear Reactors↗

NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to compare cost between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed a 5-parameter first-article optical telescope assembly cost model OTA$ (FY17) = $20M x 30(S/G)x D(1.7)x λ(-0.5)x T(-0.25)x e(-0.028) (Y-1960)Where S/G = 1 for space and 0 for ground telescopes, D = diameter, λ= diffraction limited wavelength, T = operating temperature and Y = year of development. The model explains 92% (Adjusted R2) of the cost variation in a database of 47 total ground and space telescope assemblies (OTA). The MSFC model estimates the most likely cost for only the OTA. Where an OTA is defined as the subsystem which collects electromagnetic radiation and focuses it (focal) or concentrates it (afocal) into the science instruments. An OTA consists of the primary mirror, secondary mirror, auxiliary optics and support structure (such as optical bench or truss structure, primary support structure, secondary support structure or spiders, straylight baffles, mechanisms for adjusting the optical components, electronics or power systems for operating these mechanisms, etc.). Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems(i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly(presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Space Telescope Cost Model, Parametric Cost Model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the economic costs of power outages owing to extreme events: A systematic review

Quantifying the economic cost of long-duration power outages is crucial to justifying investments in resiliency and reliability improvements. However, extensive study on the subject complicates the identification of power outage costs and determining the most suitable approach to quantify them for an individual, specific facility, particularly in the context of extreme events. Here, this research provides a systematic review of economic studies estimating the impact of environmental disasters at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Of 326 articles, evaluating the costs of power outages in extreme events, this work identified 22 studies that attempted to quantify the economic costs. These findings indicate that quantifying power outage costs lacks standardization, posing challenges for comparing different studies. Most analyses aiming to quantify these costs for utilities, sectors, and the overall economy rely on outdated survey data, which offer generalized rather than specific cost estimations. The costs of power outages exhibit a significant dependence on factors such as the sector involved, the type of customer affected, and the outage duration. To quantify industry costs, the research in this study suggests that using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's online, open-access Customer Damage Function Calculator is the best option for individual-level assessments of industries, hospitals, offices, education centers, and similar facilities. However, the Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator can estimate outage costs across industrial, commercial, and residential sectors for macroeconomic outcomes. Finally, this article discusses the relative strengths of these methods and tools and the potential directions for future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Production Cost with Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Primary material supply configurations and domestic recycling for cost-effective battery material production in the US

Battery cathode active material costs hinge on regionally concentrated, price-volatile metal supply. Here. we construct a regional facility-level cost model based on over 80 global lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines, refineries, and battery-grade material plants. Our model yields aggregated lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt production material costs from 392 region-based supply configurations for five different cathode active materials. Focusing on the United States, all-domestic supply is 9–34% costlier than global average, increasing by cobalt content, while these shortfalls can be overcome by selective low-cost material imports. Furthermore, we analyze costs of two U.S.-based recycling facilities from primary data and techno-economic modelling and compare resulting cathode active material-level costs to primary supply. Although it is still significantly higher on cathode active material cost-level, rising end-of-life flows and lowered black-mass prices will, however, make secondary supply cost-competitive to domestic and foreign primary supply cost floors. Facility-level benchmarks reveal targeted import, scaling, and production cost optimization as levers for a resilient, cost-effective U.S. battery-material supply chain.

Energy↗

NASA NTRS1975

Strapdown cost trend study and forecast

The potential cost advantages offered by advanced strapdown inertial technology in future commercial short-haul aircraft are summarized. The initial procurement cost and six year cost-of-ownership, which includes spares and direct maintenance cost were calculated for kinematic and inertial navigation systems such that traditional and strapdown mechanization costs could be compared. Cost results for the inertial navigation systems showed that initial costs and the cost of ownership for traditional triple redundant gimbaled inertial navigators are three times the cost of the equivalent skewed redundant strapdown inertial navigator. The net cost advantage for the strapdown kinematic system is directly attributable to the reduction in sensor count for strapdown. The strapdown kinematic system has the added advantage of providing a fail-operational inertial navigation capability for no additional cost due to the use of inertial grade sensors and attitude reference computers.

Eberlein, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Manned Mars mission cost estimate

The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.

Hamaker, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cost characteristics of tilt-rotor, conventional air and high speed rail short-haul intercity passenger service

The cost analysis done to support an assessment of the potential for a small tilt-rotor aircraft to operate in short-haul intercity passenger service is described in detail. Anticipated costs of tilt-rotor air service were compared to the costs of two alternatives: conventional air and high speed rail (HSR). Costs were developed for corridor service, varying key market characteristics including distance, passenger volumes, and minimum frequency standards. The resulting cost vs output information can then be used to compare modal costs for essentially identical service quality and passenger volume or for different service levels and volumes for each mode, as appropriate. Extensive sensitivity analyses are performed. The cost-output features of these technologies are compared. Tilt-rotor is very attractive compared to HSR in terms of costs over the entire range of volume. It also has costs not dramatically different from conventional air, but tilt-rotor costs are generally higher. Thus some of its other advantages, such as the VTOL capability, must offset the cost disadvantage for it to be a preferred or competitive mode in any given market. These issues are addressed in the companion report which considers strategies for tilt-rotor development in commercial air service.

Schoendorfer, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Reliability and cost: A sensitivity analysis

In the design phase of a system, how a design engineer or manager choose between a subsystem with .990 reliability and a more costly subsystem with .995 reliability is examined, along with the justification of the increased cost. High reliability is not necessarily an end in itself but may be desirable in order to reduce the expected cost due to subsystem failure. However, this may not be the wisest use of funds since the expected cost due to subsystem failure is not the only cost involved. The subsystem itself may be very costly. The cost of the subsystem nor the expected cost due to subsystem failure should not be considered separately but the total of the two costs should be maximized, i.e., the total of the cost of the subsystem plus the expected cost due to subsystem failure.

Suich, Ronald C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Space system production cost benefits from contemporary philosophies in management and manufacturing

The cost of manufacturing space system hardware has always been expensive. The Engineering Cost Group of the Program Planning office at Marshall is attempting to account for cost savings that result from new technologies in manufacturing and management. The objective is to identify and define contemporary philosophies in manufacturing and management. The seven broad categories that make up the areas where technological advances can assist in reducing space system costs are illustrated. Included within these broad categories is a list of the processes or techniques that specifically provide the cost savings within todays design, test, production and operations environments. The processes and techniques listed achieve savings in the following manner: increased productivity; reduced down time; reduced scrap; reduced rework; reduced man hours; and reduced material costs. In addition, it should be noted that cost savings from production and processing improvements effect 20 to 40 pct. of production costs whereas savings from management improvements effects 60 to 80 of production cost. This is important because most efforts in reducing costs are spent trying to reduce cost in the production.

Rosmait, Russell L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Industry survey of space system cost benefits from New Ways Of Doing Business

The cost of designing, building and operating space system hardware has always been expensive. Small quantities of specialty parts escalate engineering design, production and operations cost. Funding cutbacks and shrinking revenues dictate aggressive cost saving programs. NASA's highest priority is providing economical transportation to and from space. Over the past three decades NASA has seen technological advances that provide grater efficiencies in designing, building, and operating of space system hardware. As future programs such as NLS, LUTE and SEI begin, these greater efficiencies and cost savings should be reflected in the cost models. There are several New Ways Of Doing Business (NWODB) which, when fully implemented will reduce space system costs. These philosophies and/or culture changes are integrated in five areas: (1) More Extensive Pre-Phase C/D & E, (2) Multi Year Funding Stability, (3) Improved Quality, Management and Procurement Processes, (4) Advanced Design Methods, and (5) Advanced Production Methods. Following is an overview of NWODB and the Cost Quantification Analysis results using an industry survey, one of the four quantification techniques used in the study. The NWODB Cost Quantification Analysis is a study performed at Marshall Space Flight Center by the Engineering Cost Group, Applied Research Incorporated and Pittsburg State University. This study took place over a period of four months in mid 1992. The purpose of the study was to identify potential NWODB which could lead to improved cost effectiveness within NASA and to quantify potential cost benefits that might accrue if these NWODB were implemented.

Rosmait, Russell L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Hammond, Walter E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the levelized cost of energy in South Korea

This study evaluates the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for various energy technologies in the Republic of Korea (Korea) from 2023 to 2050, highlighting cost trajectories and potential crossovers among competing technologies. The analysis projects that, based on our set of assumptions, utility-scale photovoltaic systems achieve lower LCOEs than nuclear by 2030, while fixed offshore wind is expected to become cost-competitive with coal-fired generation around the same time. Floating offshore wind is projected to reach cost parity with coal in the late 2030s. Co-firing with natural gas and green hydrogen is identified as the highest-cost generation option due to high natural gas and green fuel costs and declining capacity utilization. This study further examines the potential for hybrid systems that integrate renewable energy with energy storage to serve as flexible, cost-effective, zero-emission alternatives to green hydrogen-based generation. Spatial LCOE assessments indicate that near-shore offshore wind sites may achieve lower costs despite modest capacity factors, contingent on site-specific factors such as grid integration and social acceptance. The findings indicate that renewable energy technologies are expected to experience continued cost declines, with solar photovoltaic becoming the most competitive energy source in Korea by 2030–2035. Incorporating social costs accelerates this shift from conventional alternatives.

Green hydrogen↗