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At least 145 records · Page 8

Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Subsurface Microsensors for Assisted Recertification of TPS (SmarTPS)

Commercialization of a competitive reusable launch vehicle (RLV) is a primary goal for both NASA and the U.S. aerospace industry. To expedite achievement of this goal, the Bantam-X Technology Program is funding development of innovative technologies to lower costs for access to space. Ground operations is one area where significant cost reduction is required. For the Shuttle fleet, ground operations account for over 80% of the life cycle costs, and TPS recertification accounts for 27% of the operation costs ($4.5M per flight). Bantam Task TPS-7, Subsurface Microsensors for Assisted Recertification of TPS (SmarTPS), is a joint effort between NASA centers and industry partners to develop rapid remote detection and scanning technology for inspection of TPS and detection of subsurface defects. This short paper will provide a general overview of the SmarTPS concept.

Pallix, Joan B.↗

Space program payload costs and their possible reduction

The possible ways by which NASA payload costs might be reduced in the future were studied. The major historical reasons for payload costs being as they were, and if there are technologies (hard and soft), or criteria for technology advances, that could significantly reduce total costs of payloads were examined. Payload costs are placed in historical context. Some historical cost breakdowns for unmanned NASA payloads are presented to suggest where future cost reductions could be most significant. Space programs of NOAA, DoD and COMSAT are then examined to ascertain if payload reductions have been brought about by the operational (as opposed to developmental) nature of such programs, economies of scale, the ability to rely on previously developed technology, or by differing management structures and attitudes. The potential impact was investigated of NASA aircraft-type management on spacecraft program costs, and some examples relating previous costs associated with aircraft costs on the one hand and manned and unmanned costs on the other are included.

Vanvleck, E. M.↗

Study of multi-kilowatt solar arrays for Earth orbit applications

A miniaturized Cassegrainian concentrator (MCC) solar array concept is being developed with the objective of significantly reducing the recurring cost of multikilowatt solar arrays. The desired cost reduction is obtained as a result of using very small high efficiency solar cells in conjuction with low cost optics. The MCC single element concept incident slar radiation is reflected rom a primary parabolic reflector to a secondary hyperbolic reflector and finally to a 4 millimeter diameter solar cell. A light catcher cone is used to improve off axis performance. The solar cell is mounted to a heat fin. An element is approximately 13 millimeters thick which permits efficient launch stowage of the concentrator system panels without complex optical component deployments or retractions. The MCC elements are packed in bays within graphite epoxy frames and are electrically connected into appropriate series-parallel circuits. A MCC sngle element with a 21 sq cm entrance aperture and a 20 efficient, 0.25 sq cm gallium arsenide solar cell has the same power output as 30 sq cm of 11-percent efficiency (at 68 C) silicon solar cells.

Patterson, R. E.↗

Energy efficient engine component development and integration program

The technology that will improve the energy efficiency of propulsion systems for subsonic commercial aircraft is investigated. A reduction of 14.4% in cruise installed sfc (0.572 versus 0.668 for the CF6-50C) and a direct operation cost reduction in excess of the 5% goal is projected. Noise and emissions projections are consistent with the established goals.

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Central coast designs: The Eightball Express. Taking off with convention, cruising with improvements and landing with absolute success

The airline industry is very competitive, resulting in most U.S. and many international airlines being unprofitable. Because of this competition the airlines have been engaging in fare wars (which reduce revenue generated by transporting passengers) while inflation has increased. This situation of course is not developing revenue for the airlines. To revive the airlines to profitability, the difference between revenue received and airline operational cost must be improved. To solve these extreme conditions, the Eightball Express was designed with the main philosophy of developing an aircraft with a low direct operating cost and acquisition cost. Central Coast Designs' (CCD) aircraft utilizes primarily aluminum in the structure to minimize manufacturing cost, supercritical airfoil sections to minimize drag, and fuel efficient engines to minimize fuel burn. Furthermore, the aircraft was designed using Total Quality Management and Integrated Product Development to minimize development and manufacturing costs. Using these primary cost reduction techniques, the Eightball Express was designed to meet the Lockheed/AIAA Request for Proposal (RFP) requirements of a low cost, 153 passenger, 3000 nm. range transport. The Eightball Express is able to takeoff on less than a 7000 ft. runway, cruise at Mach 0.82 at an altitude of 36,000 ft. for a range of 3,000 nm., and lands on a 5,000 ft. runway. lt is able to perform this mission at a direct operating cost of 3.51 cents/available seat mile in 1992 dollars while the acquisition cost is only $28 million in 1992 dollars. By utilizing and improving on proven technologies, CCD has produced an efficient low cost commercial transport for the future.

Davis, Ryan Edwin↗

Multi-Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry (M-SAPE) Version 1

This report describes an integrated system for Multi-mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry (M-SAPE). The system in its current form is capable of performing system analysis and design for an Earth entry vehicle suitable for sample return missions. The system includes geometry, mass sizing, impact analysis, structural analysis, flight mechanics, TPS, and a web portal for user access. The report includes details of M-SAPE modules and provides sample results. Current M-SAPE vehicle design concept is based on Mars sample return (MSR) Earth entry vehicle design, which is driven by minimizing risk associated with sample containment (no parachute and passive aerodynamic stability). By M-SAPE exploiting a common design concept, any sample return mission, particularly MSR, will benefit from significant risk and development cost reductions. The design provides a platform by which technologies and design elements can be evaluated rapidly prior to any costly investment commitment.

Samareh, Jamshid↗

Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report 4: Low cost management approach and recommendations

An analysis of low cost management approaches for the development of the Earth Observatory Satellite (EOS) is presented. The factors of the program which tend to increase costs are identified. The NASA/Industry interface is stressed to show how the interface can be improved to produce reduced program costs. Techniques and examples of cost reduction which can be applied to the EOS program are tabulated. Specific recommendations for actions to be taken to reduce costs in prescribed areas are submitted.

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Accelerating Ground-Test Cycle Time: The Six-Minute Model Change and Other Visions for the 21st Century

The advantage of managing organizations to minimize product development cycle time has been well established. This paper provides an overview of the wind tunnel testing cycle time reduction activities at Langley Research Center (LaRC) and gives the status of several improvements in the wind tunnel productivity and cost reductions that have resulted from these activities. Processes have been examined and optimized. Metric data from monitoring processes provides guidance for investments in advanced technologies. The most promising technologies under implementation today include the use of formally designed experiments, a diverse array of quick disconnect technology and the judicious use of advanced electronic and information technologies.

Kegelman, Jerome T.↗

Small Habitat Commonality Reduces Cost for Human Mars Missions

Most view the Apollo Program as expensive. It was. But, a human mission to Mars will be orders of magnitude more difficult and costly. Recently, NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) mapped out a step-wise approach for exploring Mars and the Mars-moon system. It is early in the planning process but because approximately 80% of the total life cycle cost is committed during preliminary design, there is an effort to emphasize cost reduction methods up front. Amongst the options, commonality across small habitat elements shows promise for consolidating the high bow-wave costs of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) while still accommodating each end-item's functionality. In addition to DDT&E, there are other cost and operations benefits to commonality such as reduced logistics, simplified infrastructure integration and with inter-operability, improved safety and simplified training. These benefits are not without a cost. Some habitats are sub-optimized giving up unique attributes for the benefit of the overall architecture and because the first item sets the course for those to follow, rapidly developing technology may be excluded. The small habitats within the EMC include the pressurized crew cabins for the ascent vehicle,

Griffin, Brand N.↗

Economics of internal and external energy storage in solar power plant operation

A simple approach is formulated to investigate the effect of energy storage on the bus-bar electrical energy cost of solar thermal power plants. Economic analysis based on this approach does not require detailed definition of a specific storage system. A wide spectrum of storage system candidates ranging from hot water to superconducting magnets can be studied based on total investment and a rough knowledge of energy in and out efficiencies. Preliminary analysis indicates that internal energy storage (thermal) schemes offer better opportunities for energy cost reduction than external energy storage (nonthermal) schemes for solar applications. Based on data and assumptions used in JPL evaluation studies, differential energy costs due to storage are presented for a 100 MWe solar power plant by varying the energy capacity. The simple approach presented in this paper provides useful insight regarding the operation of energy storage in solar power plant applications, while also indicating a range of design parameters where storage can be cost effective.

Manvi, R.↗

Validated Feasibility Study of Integrally Stiffened Metallic Fuselage Panels for Reducing Manufacturing Costs: Cost Assessment of Manufacturing/Design Concepts

The objective of the Integral Airframe Structures (IAS) program was to demonstrate, for an integrally stiffened structural concept, performance and weight equal to "built-up" structure with lower manufacturing cost. This report presents results of the cost assessment for several design configuration/manufacturing method combinations. The attributes of various cost analysis models were evaluated and COSTRAN selected for this study. A process/design cost evaluation matrix was developed based on material, forming, machining, and assembly of structural sub-elements and assembled structure. A hybrid design, made from high-speed machined extruded frames that are mechanically fastened to high-speed machined plate skin/stringer panels, was identified as the most cost-effective manufacturing solution. Recurring labor and material costs of the hybrid design are up to 61 percent less than the current built-up technology baseline. This would correspond to a total cost reduction of $1.7 million per ship set for a 777-sized airplane. However, there are important outstanding issues with regard to the cost of capacity of high technology machinery, and the ability to cost-effectively provide surface finish acceptable to the commercial aircraft industry. The projected high raw material cost of large extrusions also played an important role in the trade-off between plate and extruded concepts.

Metschan, S.↗

Challenges for future space power systems

Forecasts of space power needs are presented. The needs fall into three broad categories: survival, self-sufficiency, and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations and from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Mars are determined. Future launch cost reductions are predicted. From these projections the performances necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options are identified. The availability of plentiful cost effective electric power and of low cost access to space are identified as crucial factors in the future extension of human presence in space.

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.↗

Autonomic Management of Space Missions

With NASA s renewed commitment to outer space exploration, greater emphasis is being placed on both human and robotic exploration. Even when humans are involved in the exploration, human tending of assets becomes cost-prohibitive or in many cases is simply not feasible. In addition, certain exploration missions will require spacecraft that will be capable of venturing where humans cannot be sent. Early space missions were operated manually from ground control centers with little or no automated operations. In the mid-l980s, the high costs of satellite operations prompted NASA, and others, to begin automating as many functions as possible. In our context, a system is autonomous if it can achieve its goals without human intervention. A number of more-or-less automated ground systems exist today, but work continues with the goal being to reduce operations costs to even lower levels. Cost reductions can be achieved in a number of areas. Ground control and spacecraft operations are two such areas where greater autonomy can reduce costs. As a consequence, autonomy is increasingly seen as a critical approach for robotic missions and for some aspects of manned missions. Although autonomy will be critical for the success of future missions (and indeed will enable certain kinds of science data gathering approaches), missions imbued with autonomy must also exhibit autonomic properties. Exploitation of autonomy alone, without emphasis on autonomic properties, will leave spacecraft vulnerable to the dangerous environments in which they must operate. Without autonomic properties, a spacecraft may be unable to recognize negative environmental effects on its components and subsystems, or may be unable to take any action to ameliorate the effects. The spacecraft, though operating autonomously, may then sustain a degradation of performance of components or subsystems, and consequently may have a reduced potential for achieving mission objectives. In extreme cases, lack of autonomic properties could leave the spacecraft unable to recover from faults. Ensuring that exploration spacecraft have autonomic properties will increase the survivability and therefore the likelihood of success of these missions. In fact, over time, as mission requirements increased demands on spacecraft capabilities and longevity, designers have gradually built more autonomicity into spacecraft. For example, a spacecraft in low-earth orbit may experience an out-of-bounds perturbation of its attitude (orientation) due to increased drag caused by increased atmospheric density at its altitude as a result of a sufficiently large solar flare. If the spacecraft was designed to recognize the excessive attitude perturbation, it could decide to protect itself by going into a safe-hold mode where its internal configuration and operation are altered to conserve power and its coarse attitude is adjusted to point its solar panels toward the Sun to maximize power generation. This is an example of a simple type of autonomic behavior that has actually occurred. Future mission concepts will be increasingly dependent on space system survivability enabled by more advanced types of autonomic behaviors

Hinchey, Michael G.↗

Rightsizing LISA

The LISA science requirements and conceptual design have been fairly stable for over a decade. In the interest of reducing costs, the LISA Project at NASA has looked for simplifications of the architecture, at downsizing of subsystems, and at descopes of the entire mission. This is a natural activity of the formulation phase, and one that is particularly timely in the current NASA budgetary context. There is, and will continue to be, enormous pressure for cost reduction from both ESA and NASA, reviewers and the broader research community. Here, we review the rationale for the baseline architecture. and report recent efforts to find simplifications and other reductions that might lead to savings. A few possible simplifications have been found in the LISA baseline architecture. In the interest of exploring cost sensitivity, one moderate and one aggressive descope have been evaluated; the cost savings are modest and the loss of science is not.

Stebbins, Robin T.↗

Liquid Rocket Booster (LRB) for the Space Transportation System (STS) systems study. Volume 2: Addendum 1

The potential of a common Liquid Rocket Booster (LRB) design was evaluated for use with both the Space Transportation System (STS) and the Advanced Launch System (ALS). A goal is to have a common Liquid Oxygen/Liquid Hydrogen (LO2/LH2) engine developed for both the ALS booster and the core stage. The LO2/LH2 option for the STS was evaluated to identify potential LRB program cost reductions. The objective was to identify the structural impacts to the external tank (ET), and to determine if any significant ET re-development costs are required as a result of the larger LO2/LH2 LRB. The potential ET impacts evaluated are presented.

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Dual-Use Aspects of System Health Management

System Health Management functionality is an essential part of any space launch system. Health management functionality is an integral part of mission reliability, since it is needed to verify the reliability before the mission starts. Health Management is also a key factor in life cycle cost reduction and in increasing system availability. The degree of coverage needed by the system and the degree of coverage made available at a reasonable cost are critical parameters of a successful design. These problems are not unique to the launch vehicle world. In particular, the Intelligent Vehicle Highway System, commercial aircraft systems, train systems, and many types of industrial production facilities require various degrees of system health management. In all of these applications, too, the designers must balance the benefits and costs of health management in order to optimize costs. The importance of an integrated system is emphasized. That is, we present the case for considering health management as an integral part of system design, rather than functionality to be added on at the end of the design process. The importance of maintaining the system viewpoint is discussed in making hardware and software tradeoffs and in arriving at design decisions. We describe an approach to determine the parameters to be monitored in any system health management application. This approach is based on Design of Experiments (DOE), prototyping, failure modes and effects analyses, cost modeling and discrete event simulation. The various computer-based tools that facilitate the approach are discussed. The approach described originally was used to develop a fault tolerant avionics architecture for launch vehicles that incorporated health management as an integral part of the system. Finally, we discuss generalizing the technique to apply it to other domains. Several illustrations are presented.

Owens, P. R.↗

An economic analysis of a commercial approach to the design and fabrication of a space power system

A commercial approach to the design and fabrication of an economical space power system is presented. Cost reductions are projected through the conceptual design of a 2 kW space power system built with the capability for having serviceability. The approach to system costing that is used takes into account both the constraints of operation in space and commercial production engineering approaches. The cost of this power system reflects a variety of cost/benefit tradeoffs that would reduce system cost as a function of system reliability requirements, complexity, and the impact of rigid specifications. A breakdown of the system design, documentation, fabrication, and reliability and quality assurance cost estimates are detailed.

Putney, Z.↗