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At least 145 records · Page 8

Hourly land-use regression models based on low-cost PM monitor data

Highlights: • A network of 23 low-cost PM monitors was deployed across an urban area. • Land use regression models predict the hourly intra-urban PM variations. • Coefficients of determination for hourly PM predictions ranged 0.66–0.76. • Low-cost PM monitor data need to be carefully evaluated before use. • The combination of low-cost monitors and modeling provides useful PM estimates. Land-use regression (LUR) models provide location and time specific estimates of exposure to air pollution and thereby improve the sensitivity of health effects models. However, they require pollutant concentrations at multiple locations along with land-use variables. Often, monitoring is performed over short durations using mobile monitoring with research-grade instruments. Low-cost PM monitors provide an alternative approach that increases the spatial and temporal resolution of the air quality data. LUR models were developed to predict hourly PM concentrations across a metropolitan area using PM concentrations measured simultaneously at multiple locations with low-cost monitors. Monitors were placed at 23 sites during the 2015/16 heating season. Monitors were externally calibrated using co-located measurements including a reference instrument (GRIMM particle spectrometer). LUR models for each hour of the day and weekdays/weekend days were developed using the deletion/substitution/addition algorithm. Coefficients of determination for hourly PM predictions ranged from 0.66 and 0.76 (average 0.7). The hourly-resolved LUR model results will be used in epidemiological studies to examine if and how quickly, increases in ambient PM concentrations trigger adverse health events by reducing the exposure misclassification that arises from using less time resolved exposure estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CSP Systems Analysis - Final Project Report

The CSP Systems Analysis project was a three-year effort supporting the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Subprogram within the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The goal of the CSP Systems Analysis project was to provide timely and accurate CSP cost data to the DOE and predict performance and cost for emerging technologies that may impact research directions and industry investment. The project consisted of six, mostly independent tasks. Major accomplishments over the three-year period of performance were as follows. The NREL team maintained current cost estimates for CSP technologies by annual updates to the cost input parameters within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM is a performance and cost simulation software that includes technology models for the primary CSP technologies. During the period from 2016 to 2018, the estimated cost within SAM's default CSP molten-salt power tower technology dropped from 13.0 to 11.1 cent/kWh (real dollars without incentives). Power cycle models for the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton Cycle were developed and made an option within SAM's molten-salt power tower model. These models were subsequently used to evaluate the cost reduction potential of alternative salts. The partial-cooling model was found to provide the greatest cost-reduction potential due to its combination of efficiency and temperature differential across the turbine and thermal energy storage (TES) system. These studies were documented in two journal articles. NREL's optical modeling software SolTrace and SolarPILOT were made more versatile and released as open-source software to the CSP community. These tools help researchers and developers to model and optimize the optical performance of CSP collector systems. The new features were highlighted in a recorded webinar that can be accessed from the NREL SAM website. New models for solar-thermal systems, that is, applications for solar industrial process heat, were developed, validated, and installed within SAM. The analysis includes a 2018 review of linear collectors in the market that are tailored for solar process heat applications. In 2018 the NREL team also developed an annual simulation for a direct steam generation system integrated with a latent-heat TES system. This analysis was submitted for journal publication. The NREL team continued to support the exchange of information and development of CSP guidelines within the international CSP community of SolarPACES. Much of the work under this project was presented at SolarPACES, including the development of a modeling checklist to help CSP stakeholders standardize the models used for estimating CSP performance and cost. The CSP Systems Analysis project also supported DOE requests for tracking and reporting programmatic targets for the CSP Subprogram.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost analysis of atmosphere monitoring systems

A methodology was developed to predict realistic relative cost of life support systems and to define areas of major cost impacts in the development cycle. Emphasis was given to tailoring the cost data for usage by program planners and designers. Cost estimates can be completed using the developed equations for varying degrees of equipment refinement, as well as comparative costs between different functional methods. Cost analysis of two leading atmosphere monitoring systems, namely the mass spectrometer and the gas chromatograph, is discussed. A summary of the approach used in developing the cost estimating techniques is presented. Included are the cost estimating techniques, the development of cost estimating relationships, and the atmosphere monitoring system cost estimates.

Yakut, M. M.↗

Electrochemical energy storage subsystems study, volume 1

The effects on life cycle costs (LCC) of major design and performance technology parameters for multi kW LEO and GEO energy storage subsystems using NiCd and NiH2 batteries and fuel cell/electrolysis cell devices were examined. Design, performance and LCC dynamic models are developed based on mission and system/subsystem requirements and existing or derived physical and cost data relationships. The models define baseline designs and costs. The major design and performance parameters are each varied to determine their influence on LCC around the baseline values.

Miller, F. Q.↗

Development of termination and utilization concepts for flat conductor cables. Volume 3: Cost study comparison, flat versus round conductor cable

A cost study comparing flat conductor cable (FCC) with small-gage wire (SGW) and conventional round conductor cable (RCC) is presented. This study was based on a vehicle wiring system consisting of 110,000 ft of conventional RCC equally divided between AWG sizes 20,22, and 24 using MIL-W-81044-type wire and MIL-C-26500 circular connectors. Basic cost data were developed on a similar-sized commercial jet airplane wiring system on a previous company R&D program in which advanced wiring techniques were carried through equivalent installations on an airplane mockup; and on data developed on typical average bundles during this program. Various cost elements included were engineering labor, operations (manufacturing) labor, material costs, and cost impact on payload. Engineering labor includes design, wiring system integration, wiring diagrams and cable assembly drawings, wire installations, and other related supporting functions such as the electronic data processing for the wiring. Operations labor includes mockup, tooling and production planning, fabrication, assembly, installation, and quality control cost impact on payload is the conversion of wiring system weight variations through use of different wiring concepts to program payload benefits in terms of dollars.

Source record↗

Design and Demonstration of an Advanced Agricultural Feedstock Supply System for Lignocellulosic Bioenergy Production

This three-year project developed and demonstrated four innovative, first-of-their-kind pieces of equipment that are aimed at significantly reducing the cost of delivered herbaceous biomass. This equipment included a Self-Propelled Baler (SPB), a Bale Picking Truck (BPT), a Self-Loading Trailer (SLT), and a Heavy Crop Header for harvesting high yielding energy crops. This equipment was designed and fabricated during the first two years of the project and demonstrated on available crops (corn stover, wheat straw, and warm season grasses) across the nation, as available. Operational performance and cost data was collected and analyzed throughout the project to measure the costs of baseline harvesting (using conventional harvesting equipment) and advanced harvesting with the newly developed equipment. This data revealed that the project met its original goal of developing equipment that is realistically capable of reducing the cost of delivered biomass by $13 per dry ton. Each machine was tested after fabrication and put to the test in one or more commercial harvesting seasons. During these tests, operational flaws were found and fixed through upgrades and improvements. The first new SPB, BPT, and two new SLTs were ready for use during the 2013 harvest season. Since then, over 40 SLTs have been ordered and are currently under fabrication. All of the equipment will be commercially available to the industry as demand increases.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Deep Energy Retrofits - Eleven California Case Studies

This research documents and demonstrates viable approaches using existing materials, tools and technologies in owner-conducted deep energy retrofits (DERs). These retrofits are meant to reduce energy use by 70% or more, and include extensive upgrades to the building enclosure, heating, cooling and hot water equipment, and often incorporate appliance and lighting upgrades as well as the addition of renewable energy. In this report, 11 Northern California (IECC climate zone 3) DER case studies are described and analyzed in detail, including building diagnostic tests and end-use energy monitoring results. All projects recognized the need to improve the home and its systems approximately to current building code-levels, and then pursued deeper energy reductions through either enhanced technology/ building enclosure measures, or through occupant conservation efforts, both of which achieved impressive energy performance and reductions. The beyond-code incremental DER costs averaged $25,910 for the six homes where cost data were available. DERs were affordable when these incremental costs were financed as part of a remodel, averaging a $30 per month increase in the net-cost of home ownership.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technical and economic study of Stirling and Rankine cycle bottoming systems for heavy truck diesel engines

Bottoming cycle concepts for heavy duty transport engine applications were studied. In particular, the following tasks were performed: (1) conceptual design and cost data development for Stirling systems; (2) life-cycle cost evaluation of three bottoming systems - organic Rankine, steam Rankine, and Stirling cycles; and (3) assessment of future directions in waste heat utilization research. Variables considered for the second task were initial capital investments, fuel savings, depreciation tax benefits, salvage values, and service/maintenance costs. The study shows that none of the three bottoming systems studied are even marginally attractive. Manufacturing costs have to be reduced by at least 65%. As a new approach, an integrated Rankine/Diesel system was proposed. It utilizes one of the diesel cylinders as an expander and capitalizes on the in-cylinder heat energy. The concept eliminates the need for the power transmission device and a sophisticated control system, and reduces the size of the exhaust evaporator. Results of an economic evaluation indicate that the system has the potential to become an attractive package for end users.

Kubo, I.↗

A video event trigger for high frame rate, high resolution video technology

When video replaces film the digitized video data accumulates very rapidly, leading to a difficult and costly data storage problem. One solution exists for cases when the video images represent continuously repetitive 'static scenes' containing negligible activity, occasionally interrupted by short events of interest. Minutes or hours of redundant video frames can be ignored, and not stored, until activity begins. A new, highly parallel digital state machine generates a digital trigger signal at the onset of a video event. High capacity random access memory storage coupled with newly available fuzzy logic devices permits the monitoring of a video image stream for long term or short term changes caused by spatial translation, dilation, appearance, disappearance, or color change in a video object. Pretrigger and post-trigger storage techniques are then adaptable for archiving the digital stream from only the significant video images.

Williams, Glenn L.↗

Application of Gaussian Mixture Regression for the Correction of Low Cost PM2.5 Monitoring Data in Accra, Ghana

Low-cost sensors (LCSs) for air quality monitoring have enormous potential to improve air quality data coverage in resource-limited parts of the world such as sub-Saharan Africa. LCSs, however, are affected by environment and source conditions. To establish high-quality data, LCSs must be collocated and calibrated with reference grade PM2.5 monitors. From March 2020, a low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated with a Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor 1020 in Accra, Ghana. While previous studies have shown that multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest regression (RF) can improve accuracy and correlation between PurpleAir and reference data, MLR and RF yielded suboptimal improvement in the Accra collocation (R2 = 0.81 and R2 = 0.81, respectively). We present the first application of Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) to air quality data calibration and demonstrate improvement over traditional methods by increasing the collocated PM2.5 correlation and accuracy to R2 = 0.88 and MAE = 2.2 μg/cu. m. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are a probability density estimator and clustering method from which nonlinear regressions that tolerate missing inputs can be derived. We find that even when given missing inputs, GMR provides better correlation than MLR and RF performed with complete data. GMR also allows us to estimate calibration certainty. When evaluated, 95% confidence intervals agreed with reference PM2.5 data 96% of the time, suggesting that the model accurately assesses its own confidence. Additionally, clustering within the GMM is consistent with climate characteristics, providing confidence that the calibration approach can learn underlying relationships in data.

Sensors↗

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants - Volume 4: Coal-to-Liquids via Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

This report establishes performance and cost data for coal-to-liquids systems, specifically by means of gasification and Fischer-Tropsch reaction. The analyses were performed on a consistent technical and economic basis to assess the design and financial performance of a commercial-scale coal-to-Fischer-Tropsch liquids facility. The cost and performance data were compiled from published reports, information obtained from vendor quotes and users of the technology, and data from designing and building utility and refining projects.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Low-Moisture Switchgrass Bulk-Format Logistics Costs Based on Engineering Data

Abstract. Logistics costs that spanned harvest, transport, storage, preprocessing, and year-round delivery of 371,870 dMg year -1 of milled, low-moisture switchgrass (SG) to a local biorefinery were determined for bulk-format versus round-bale systems. Separate spreadsheet analyses were conducted for three diesel fuel prices ($0.53 L -1 , $0.92 L -1 , and $1.32 L -1 ) because of the wide range of fuel prices during the project. A detailed analysis scenario identified a common harvest period, equipment annual use, other equipment uses, and protected SG storage on gravel pad, along with equipment performances based on previously published tests primarily for commercially available equipment. The bulk-format system used a depot equipped with stacker/reclaimer technology for storage, whereas the round-bale system used field-side bale stacks for storage, with both systems assuming 6% losses, primarily attributed to storage. Results indicated total costs for bulk-format versus round-bale systems of $54.63 per dry Mg (dMg -1 ), $60.41 dMg -1 , and $66.21 dMg -1 versus $54.59 dMg -1 , $62.10 dMg -1 , and $67.93 dMg -1 corresponding with diesel fuel costs of $0.53 L -1 , $0.92 L -1 , and $1.32 L -1 , respectively. The most significant bulk-format system total cost of $22.79 dMg -1 was associated with a stacker/reclaimer, conveyance, and dust collection at the depot, which was 42% of total costs at a diesel fuel cost of $0.53 L -1 . For the round-bale system, bale chopping total costs was highest and represented an average of 27% of total costs, with costs ranging from $14.63 dMg -1 to $19.08 dMg -1 for diesel fuel input costs ranging from $0.53 L -1 to $1.32 L -1 , respectively. For comparison, the forage harvester provided harvesting and chopping in the bulk-format system at total costs ranging from $6.47 dMg -1 to $8.80 dMg -1 across the same range of diesel fuel input cost. The forage harvester provided an economic advantage in size reduction compared to tub grinding. Truck hauling for both the bulk-format and round-bale systems represented significant expenses at all selected fuel costs. In addition, the multiple times that round bales were handled represented accumulating costs that were sensitive to diesel fuel costs. Keywords: Bales, Bioenergy, Bulk format, Densification, Field chop, Logistics, Transportation.

Agriculture↗

NASA metrology information system: A NEMS subsystem

the NASA Metrology Information Systems (NMIS) is being developed as a standardized tool in managing the NASA field Center's instrument calibration programs. This system, as defined by the NASA Metrology and Calibration Workshop, will function as a subsystem of the newly developed NASA Equipment Management System (NEMS). The Metrology Information System is designed to utilize and update applicable NEMS data fields for controlled property and to function as a stand alone system for noncontrolled property. The NMIS provides automatic instrument calibration recall control, instrument historical performance data storage and analysis, calibration and repair labor and parts cost data, and instrument user and location data. Nineteen standardized reports were developed to analyze calibration system operations.

German, E. S., Jr.↗

Advanced manufacturing development of a composite empennage component for L-1011 aircraft

This is the final report of technical work conducted during the fourth phase of a multiphase program having the objective of the design, development and flight evaluation of an advanced composite empennage component manufactured in a production environment at a cost competitive with those of its metal counterpart, and at a weight savings of at least 20 percent. The empennage component selected for this program is the vertical fin box of the L-1011 aircraft. The box structure extends from the fuselage production joint to the tip rib and includes front and rear spars. During Phase 4 of the program, production quality tooling was designed and manufactured to produce three sets of covers, ribs, spars, miscellaneous parts, and subassemblies to assemble three complete ACVF units. Recurring and nonrecurring cost data were compiled and documented in the updated producibility/design to cost plan. Nondestruct inspections, quality control tests, and quality acceptance tests were performed in accordance with the quality assurance plan and the structural integrity control plan. Records were maintained to provide traceability of material and parts throughout the manufacturing development phase. It was also determined that additional tooling would not be required to support the current and projected L-1011 production rate.

Alva, T.↗

Use of multispectral data in design of forest sample surveys

The use of multispectral data in design of forest sample surveys using a computer software package is described. The system allows evaluation of a number of alternative sampling systems and, with appropriate cost data, estimates the implementation cost for each.

Titus, S. J.↗

2020 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies

The 2020 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. The Transportation ATB includes current and projected estimates through 2050 for light-duty vehicle technologies as well as conventional and alternative fuels. This excel files include vehicle, fuel, and joined vehicle and fuel data with calculated levelized cost and emission values associated with the 2020 Transportation ATB. NREL has also provided a Tableau workbook to further explore the data. A website documents this data at https://atb.nlr.gov .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗