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DOE OSTI2021

Cosmological cross-correlations and nearest neighbour distributions

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between data sets are used in many different contexts in cosmological analyses. Recently, k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions (kNN-CDF) were shown to be sensitive probes of cosmological (auto) clustering. In this paper, we extend the framework of NN measurements to describe joint distributions of, and correlations between, two data sets. We describe the measurement of joint kNN-CDFs, and show that these measurements are sensitive to all possible connected N-point functions that can be defined in terms of the two data sets. We describe how the cross-correlations can be isolated by combining measurements of the joint kNN-CDFs and those measured from individual data sets. We demonstrate the application of these measurements in the context of Gaussian density fields, as well as for fully non-linear cosmological data sets. Using a Fisher analysis, we show that measurements of the halo-matter cross-correlations, as measured through NN measurements are more sensitive to the underlying cosmological parameters, compared to traditional two-point cross-correlation measurements over the same range of scales. Finally, we demonstrate how the NN cross-correlations can robustly detect cross-correlations between sparse samples – the same regime where the two-point cross-correlation measurements are dominated by noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two-Step Procedure to Detect Cosmological Gravitational Wave Backgrounds with Next-Generation Terrestrial Gravitational-Wave Detectors

Cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds are an exciting science target for next-generation ground-based detectors, as they encode invaluable information about the primordial Universe. However, any such background is expected to be obscured by the astrophysical foreground from compact-binary coalescences. We propose a novel framework to detect a cosmological gravitational-wave background in the presence of binary black holes and binary neutron star signals with next-generation ground-based detectors, including Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope. Our procedure involves first removing all the individually resolved binary black hole signals by notching them out in the time-frequency domain. Then, we perform joint Bayesian inference on the individually resolved binary neutron star signals, the unresolved binary neutron star foreground, and the cosmological background. For a flat cosmological background, we find that we can claim detection at 5⁢𝜎 level when Ω ref ≥ 2.7 × 10 −12 /$\sqrt{𝑇_{obs}/yr}$, where 𝑇 obs is the observation time (in years), which is within a factor of ≲ 2 from the sensitivity reached in the absence of these astrophysical foregrounds.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiprobe cosmology from the abundance of SPT clusters and DES galaxy clustering and weak lensing

Cosmic shear, galaxy clustering, and the abundance of massive halos each probe the large-scale structure of the Universe in complementary ways. We present cosmological constraints from the joint analysis of the three probes, building on the latest analyses of the lensing-informed abundance of clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and of the auto- and cross-correlation of galaxy position and weak lensing measurements (3 × 2 ⁢pt) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We consider the cosmological correlation between the different tracers and we account for the systematic uncertainties that are shared between the large-scale lensing correlation functions and the small-scale lensing-based cluster mass calibration. Marginalized over the remaining Λ cold dark matter (Λ ⁢CDM) parameters (including the sum of neutrino masses) and 52 astrophysical modeling parameters, we measure Ω m = 0.300 ± 0.017 and 𝜎 8 = 0.797 ± 0.026. Compared to constraints from Planck primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, our constraints are only 15% wider with a probability to exceed of 0.22 (1.2⁢𝜎) for the two-parameter difference. We further obtain 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.796 ± 0.013 which is lower than the Planck measurement at the 1.6⁢𝜎 level. The combined SPT cluster, DES 3 ×2 ⁢pt, and Planck datasets mildly prefer a nonzero positive neutrino mass, with a 95% upper limit ∑ 𝑚 𝜈 < 0.25 eV on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming a 𝑤⁢CDM model, we constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter 𝑤 = −1.1⁢5$^{+0.23}_{−0.17}$ and when combining with Planck primary CMB anisotropies, we recover 𝑤 = −1.2⁢0$^{+0.15}_{−0.09}$, a 1.7⁢𝜎 difference with a cosmological constant. The precision of our results highlights the benefits of multiwavelength multiprobe cosmology and our analysis paves the way for upcoming joint analyses of next-generation datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing the ΛCDM Cosmological Model with Forthcoming Measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background with SPT-3G

We forecast constraints on cosmological parameters enabled by three surveys conducted with SPT-3G, the third-generation camera on the South Pole Telescope. The surveys cover separate regions of 1500, 2650, and 6000 deg$^{2}$ to different depths, in total observing 25% of the sky. These regions will be measured to white noise levels of roughly 2.5, 9, and 12μK-armin, respectively, in cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature units at 150 GHz by the end of 2024. The survey also includes measurements at 95 and 220 GHz, which have noise levels a factor of ∼1.2 and 3.5 times higher than 150 GHz, respectively, with each band having a polarization noise level ∼2times higher than the temperature noise. We use a novel approach to obtain the covariance matrices for jointly and optimally estimated gravitational lensing potential band powers and unlensed CMB temperature and polarization band powers. We demonstrate the ability to test the ΛCDM model via the consistency of cosmological parameters constrained independently from SPT-3G and Planck data, and consider the improvement in constraints on ΛCDM extension parameters from a joint analysis of SPT-3G and Planck data. The ΛCDM cosmological parameters are typically constrained with uncertainties up to ∼2 times smaller with SPT-3G data, compared to Planck, with the two data sets measuring significantly different angular scales and polarization levels, providing additional tests of the standard cosmological model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmologically Coupled Compact Objects: A Single-parameter Model for LIGO–Virgo Mass and Redshift Distributions

Abstract We demonstrate a single-parameter route for reproducing higher mass objects as observed in the LIGO–Virgo mass distribution, using only the isolated-binary stellar evolution channel. This single parameter encodes the cosmological mass growth of compact stellar remnants that exceed the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff limit. Cosmological mass growth appears in known solutions to General Relativity with cosmological boundary conditions. We consider the possibility of solutions with cosmological boundary conditions, which reduce to Kerr on timescales short compared to the Hubble time. We discuss complementary observational signatures of these solutions that can confirm or invalidate their astrophysical relevance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observational Evidence for Cosmological Coupling of Black Holes and its Implications for an Astrophysical Source of Dark Energy

Observations have found black holes spanning 10 orders of magnitude in mass across most of cosmic history. The Kerr black hole solution is, however, provisional as its behavior at infinity is incompatible with an expanding universe. Black hole models with realistic behavior at infinity predict that the gravitating mass of a black hole can increase with the expansion of the universe independently of accretion or mergers, in a manner that depends on the black hole's interior solution. We test this prediction by considering the growth of supermassive black holes in elliptical galaxies over 0 < z ≲ 2.5. We find evidence for cosmologically coupled mass growth among these black holes, with zero cosmological coupling excluded at 99.98% confidence. The redshift dependence of the mass growth implies that, at z ≲ 7, black holes contribute an effectively constant cosmological energy density to Friedmann's equations. The continuity equation then requires that black holes contribute cosmologically as vacuum energy. We further show that black hole production from the cosmic star formation history gives the value of Ω Λ measured by Planck while being consistent with constraints from massive compact halo objects. We thus propose that stellar remnant black holes are the astrophysical origin of dark energy, explaining the onset of accelerating expansion at z ~ 0.7.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions

Here, we perform a blinded cosmology analysis with cosmic shear two-point correlation functions measured from more than 25 million galaxies in the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year shear catalog in four tomographic redshift bins ranging from 0.3 to 1.5. After conservative masking and galaxy selection, the survey covers 416 deg 2 of the northern sky with an effective galaxy number density of 15 arcmin –2 over the four redshift bins. The 2PCFs adopted for cosmology analysis are measured in the angular range; 7.1 <θ/arcmin < 56.6 for ξ + and 31.2 < θ/arcmin < 248 for ξ – , with a total signal-to-noise ratio of 26.6. We apply a conservative, wide, flat prior on the photometric redshift errors on the last two tomographic bins, and the relative magnitudes of the cosmic shear amplitude across four redshift bins allow us to calibrate the photometric redshift errors. With this flat prior on redshift errors, we find Ω m = 0.25⁢6$^{+0.056}_{–0.044}$ and S 8 ≡ σ 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ = 0.76⁢9$^{+0.031}_{–0.034}$ (both 68% C.I.) for a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology. We find, after unblinding, that our constraint on S 8 is consistent with the Fourier space cosmic shear and the 3 × 2 pt analyses on the same HSC dataset. We carefully study the potential systematics from astrophysical and systematic model uncertainties in our fiducial analysis using synthetic data, and report no biases (including projection bias in the posterior space) greater than 0.5σ in the estimation of S 8 . Our analysis hints that the mean redshifts of the two highest tomographic bins are higher than initially estimated. In addition, a number of consistency tests are conducted to assess the robustness of our analysis. Comparing our result with Planck-2018 cosmic microwave background observations, we find a ~2σ tension for the Λ ⁢CDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A fast particle-mesh simulation of non-linear cosmological structure formation with massive neutrinos

Quasi-N-body simulations, such as FastPM, provide a fast way to simulate cosmological structure formation, but have yet to adequately include the effects of massive neutrinos. In this work, we present a method to include neutrino particles in FastPM, enabling computation of the CDM and total matter power spectra to percent-level accuracy in the non-linear regime. The CDM-neutrino cross-power can also be computed at a sufficient accuracy to constrain cosmological observables. To avoid the shot noise that typically plagues neutrino particle simulations, we employ a quasi-random algorithm to sample the relevant Fermi-Dirac distribution when setting the initial neutrino thermal velocities. We additionally develop an effective distribution function to describe a set of non-degenerate neutrinos as a single particle to speed up non-degenerate simulations. The simulation is accurate for the full range of physical interest, M ν ≲ 0.6eV, and applicable to redshifts z ≲ 2. Such accuracy can be achieved by initializing particles with the two-fluid approximation transfer functions (using the REPS package). Convergence can be reached in ~ 25 steps, with a starting redshift of z=99. Probing progressively smaller scales only requires an increase in the number of CDM particles being simulated, while the number of neutrino particles can remain fixed at a value less than or similar to the number of CDM particles. In turn, the percentage increase in runtime-per-step due to neutrino particles is between ~ 5-20% for runs with 1024 3 CDM particles, and decreases as the number of CDM particles is increased. The code has been made publicly available, providing an invaluable resource to produce fast predictions for cosmological surveys and studying reconstruction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining Planck and SPT Cluster Catalogs: Cosmological Analysis and Impact on the Planck Scaling Relation Calibration

We provide the first combined cosmological analysis of the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck cluster catalogs. The aim is to provide an independent calibration for Planck scaling relations, exploiting the cosmological constraining power of the SPT-SZ cluster catalog and its dedicated weak lensing (WL) and X-ray follow-up observations. We build a new version of the Planck cluster likelihood. In the νΛ CDM scenario, focusing on the mass slope and mass bias of Planck scaling relations, we find ${\alpha }_{\mathrm{SZ}}={1.49}_{-0.10}^{+0.07}$ and ${\left(1-b\right)}_{\mathrm{SZ}}={0.69}_{-0.14}^{+0.07}$, respectively. The results for the mass slope show a ~4 σ departure from the self-similar evolution, α SZ ~ 1.8. This shift is mainly driven by the matter density value preferred by SPT data, Ωm = 0.30 ± 0.03, lower than the one obtained by Planck data alone, ${{\rm{\Omega }}}_{m}={0.37}_{-0.06}^{+0.02}$. The mass bias constraints are consistent both with outcomes of hydrodynamical simulations and external WL calibrations, (1 – b) ~ 0.8, and with results required by the Planck cosmic microwave background cosmology, (1 – b) ~ 0.6. From this analysis, we obtain a new catalog of Planck cluster masses M 500 . We estimate the ratio between the published Planck M SZ masses and our derived masses M 500 , as a "measured mass bias," ${\left(1-b\right)}_{M}$. We analyze the mass, redshift, and detection noise dependence of ${\left(1-b\right)}_{M}$, finding an increasing trend toward high redshift and low mass. These results mimic the effect of departure from self-similarity in cluster evolution, showing different dependencies for the low-mass, high-mass, low-z, and high-z regimes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters with a Sample of Type Ia Supernovae from JWST

We investigate the potential of using a sample of very high-redshift (2 ≲ z ≲ 6) (VHZ) Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) attainable by JWST on constraining cosmological parameters. At such high redshifts, the age of the universe is young enough that the VHZ SN Ia sample comprises the very first SNe Ia of the universe, with progenitors among the very first generation of low-mass stars that the universe has made. We show that the VHZ SNe Ia can be used to disentangle systematic effects due to the luminosity distance evolution with redshifts intrinsic to SN Ia standardization. Assuming that the systematic evolution can be described by a linear or logarithmic formula, we found that the coefficients of this dependence can be determined accurately and decoupled from cosmological models. Systematic evolution as large as 0.15 mag and 0.45 mag out to z = 5 can be robustly separated from popular cosmological models for linear and logarithmic evolution, respectively. The VHZ SNe Ia will lay the foundation for quantifying the systematic redshift evolution of SN Ia luminosity distance scales. When combined with SN Ia surveys at comparatively lower redshifts, the VHZ SNe Ia allow for the precise measurement of the history of the expansion of the universe from z ~ 0 to the epoch approaching reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding beyond cosmological horizons in de Sitter JT gravity

Black hole event horizons and cosmological event horizons share many properties, making it natural to ask whether our recent advances in understanding black holes generalize to cosmology. To this end, we discuss a paradox that occurs if observers can access what lies beyond their cosmological horizon in the same way that they can access what lies beyond a black hole horizon. In particular, distinct observers with distinct horizons may encode the same portion of spacetime, violating the no-cloning theorem of quantum mechanics. This paradox is due precisely to the observer-dependence of the cosmological horizon — the sharpest difference from a black hole horizon — although we will argue that the gravity path integral avoids the paradox in controlled examples.

2D gravity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Islands in cosmology

A quantum extremal island suggests that a region of spacetime is encoded in the quantum state of another system, like the encoding of the black hole interior in Hawking radiation. We study conditions for islands to appear in general spacetimes, with or without black holes. They must violate Bekenstein’s area bound in a precise sense, and the boundary of an island must satisfy several other information-theoretic inequalities. These conditions combine to impose very strong restrictions, which we apply to cosmological models. We find several examples of islands in crunching universes. In particular, in the four-dimensional FRW cosmology with radiation and a negative cosmological constant, there is an island near the turning point when the geometry begins to recollapse. In a two-dimensional model of JT gravity in de Sitter spacetime, there are islands inside crunches that are encoded at future infinity or inside bubbles of Minkowski spacetime. Finally, we discuss simple tensor network toy models for islands in cosmology and black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Snowmass2021 - Letter of interest cosmology intertwined II: The hubble constant tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, which has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity, a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in part the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the 4.4σ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant H0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting models of new physics that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade’s experiments will be crucial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Flow for robust and optimal cosmological analysis

We propose Multiscale Flow, a generative Normalizing Flow that creates samples and models the field-level likelihood of two-dimensional cosmological data such as weak lensing. Multiscale Flow uses hierarchical decomposition of cosmological fields via a wavelet basis and then models different wavelet components separately as Normalizing Flows. The log-likelihood of the original cosmological field can be recovered by summing over the log-likelihood of each wavelet term. This decomposition allows us to separate the information from different scales and identify distribution shifts in the data such as unknown scale-dependent systematics. The resulting likelihood analysis can not only identify these types of systematics, but can also be made optimal, in the sense that the Multiscale Flow can learn the full likelihood at the field without any dimensionality reduction. We apply Multiscale Flow to weak lensing mock datasets for cosmological inference and show that it significantly outperforms traditional summary statistics such as power spectrum and peak counts, as well as machine learning–based summary statistics such as scattering transform and convolutional neural networks. We further show that Multiscale Flow is able to identify distribution shifts not in the training data such as baryonic effects. Finally, we demonstrate that Multiscale Flow can be used to generate realistic samples of weak lensing data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The well-tempered cosmological constant: fugue in B$^\flat$

Zero point fluctuations of quantum fields should generate a large cosmological constant energy density in any spacetime. How then can we have anything other than de Sitter space without fine tuning? Well tempering—dynamical cancellation of the cosmological constant using degeneracy within the field equations— can replace a large cosmological constant with a much lower energy state. Here we give an explicit mechanism to obtain a Minkowski solution, replacing the cosmological constant with zero, and testing its attractor nature and persistence through a vacuum phase transition. We derive the general conditions that Horndeski scalar-tensor gravity must possess, and evolve in a fugue of functions, to deliver nothing and make the universe be flat.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian interpretation of inconsistency measures in cosmology

Abstract Measures of inconsistency and tension between datasets have become an essential part of cosmological analyses. It is important to accurately evaluate the significance of such tensions when present. We propose here a Bayesian interpretation of inconsistency measures that can extract information about physical inconsistencies in the presence of data scatter. This new framework is based on the conditional probability distribution of the level of physical inconsistency given the obtained value of the measure. We use the index of inconsistency as a case study to illustrate the new interpretation framework, but this can be generalized to other metrics. Importantly, there are two aspects in the quantification of inconsistency that behave differently as the number of model parameters increases. The first is the probability for the level of physical inconsistency to reach a threshold which drops with the increase of the number of parameters under consideration. The second is the actual level of physical inconsistency which remains rather insensitive to such an increase in parameters. The difference between these two aspects is often overlooked, which leads to a long-standing ambiguity: when a given inconsistency is found between two constraints, its “significance” seems to be lower when considered in a higher-dimensional parameter space. This ambiguity is resolved by the Bayesian interpretation we introduce in this work because the conditional probability distribution includes all the statistical information of the level of physical inconsistency. Finally, we apply the Bayesian interpretation to examine the (in)consistency between Planck versus the Cepheid-based local measurement, the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and WMAP. We confirm and revisit the degrees of previous physical inconsistencies and show the stability of the new interpretation with respect to the number of cosmological parameters compared to the commonly used n-σ interpretation when applied to cosmological tensions in multi-parameter spaces.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rotating cosmologies: classical and quantum

Here, we revisit spatially flat, anisotropic cosmologies within the framework of mini-superspace. Putting special emphasis on the symmetries of the mini-superspace action and on the associated conservation laws, we unveil a new class of rotating cosmologies driven by solid matter. Their rotating is physical, in that it is characterized in an invariant way in terms of a conserved angular momentum. Along the way, we confirm the results of Bartolo et al. regarding the slow decay of anisotropies for solid inflation. We then use our minisuperspace approach as a laboratory to address certain puzzles of quantum cosmology — among these, how to characterize the spacetime symmetries of a quantum state at the level of the wavefunction of the universe. For the case of a solid driven cosmology, this question seems better defined than in more standard cases. Other questions remain unanswered, though; in particular, the general question of how to operate a minisuperspace-like truncation of degrees of freedom that is consistent at the quantum level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The HalfDome multi-survey cosmological simulations: N-body simulations

Upcoming cosmological surveys have the potential to reach groundbreaking discoveries on multiple fronts, including the neutrino mass, dark energy, and inflation. Most of the key science goals require the joint analysis of datasets from multiple surveys to break parameter degeneracies and calibrate systematics. To realize such analyses, a large set of mock simulations that realistically model correlated observables is required. In this paper we present the N-body component of the HalfDome cosmological simulations, designed for the joint analysis of Stage-IV cosmological surveys, such as Rubin LSST, Euclid, SPHEREx, Roman, DESI, PFS, Simons Observatory, CMB-S4, and LiteBIRD. Our 300TB initial data release includes full-sky lightcones and halo catalogs between z = 0–4 for 11 fixed cosmology realizations, as well as an additional run with local primordial non-Gaussianity (f NL = 20). The simulations evolve 61443 particles in a 3.75 h -1 Gpc box, reaching a minimum halo mass of ∼6 × 1012 h -1 M ⊙ and maximum scale of k ∼ h Mpc-1. Our data is publicly available: instructions to access the data and plans for future data releases can be found at https://halfdomesims.github.io.

Bayer, Adrian E↗