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At least 145 records · Page 8

A function approximation approach to anomaly detection in propulsion system test data

Ground test data from propulsion systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) can be automatically screened for anomalies by a neural network. The neural network screens data after being trained with nominal data only. Given the values of 14 measurements reflecting external influences on the SSME at a given time, the neural network predicts the expected nominal value of a desired engine parameter at that time. We compared the ability of three different function-approximation techniques to perform this nominal value prediction: a novel neural network architecture based on Gaussian bar basis functions, a conventional back propagation neural network, and linear regression. These three techniques were tested with real data from six SSME ground tests containing two anomalies. The basis function network trained more rapidly than back propagation. It yielded nominal predictions with, a tight enough confidence interval to distinguish anomalous deviations from the nominal fluctuations in an engine parameter. Since the function-approximation approach requires nominal training data only, it is capable of detecting unknown classes of anomalies for which training data is not available.

Whitehead, Bruce A.↗

Risk of decompression sickness in the presence of circulating microbubbles

In this study, we examined the association between microbubbles formed in the circulation from a free gas phase and symptoms of altitude decompression sickness (DCS). In a subgroup of 59 males of mean (S.D) age 31.2 (5.8) years who developed microbubbles during exposure to 26.59 kPa (4.3 psi) under simulated extravehicular activities (EVA), symptoms of DCS occurred in 24 (41 percent) individuals. Spencer grade 1 microbubbles occurred in 4 (7 percent), grade 2 in 9 (15 percent), grade 3 in 15 (25 percent), and grade 4 in 31 (53 percent) of subjects. Survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression showed that individuals with less than grade 3 CMB showed 2.46 times (95 percent confidence interval = 1.26 to 5.34) higher risk of symptoms. This information is crucial for defining the risk of DCS for inflight Doppler monitoring under space EVA. Altitude decompression sickness (DCS) occurs when there is acute reduction in ambient pressure. The symptoms of DCS are due to the formation of a free gas phase (in the form of gas microbubbles) in tissues during decompression. Musculo-skeletal pain of bends is the commonest form of DCS in altitude exposures. In the space flight environment, there is a risk of DCS when astronauts decompress from the normobaric shuttle pressure into the hypobaric space suit pressure (currently about 29.65 kPa (4.3 psi) for extra-vehicular activities (EVA). This risk is counterbalanced by a judicious combination of prior denitrogenation and staged decompression. Studies of DCS are limited by the duration of the test at reduced pressure. Since only a proportion of subjects tested develop symptoms, the information on DCS is generally incomplete or 'censored'. Many studies employ Doppler ultrasound monitoring of the precordial area for detecting circulating microbubbles (CMB). Although the association between CMB and bends pain is not causal, CMB are frequently monitored during decompression. In this paper, we examine the association between CMB and symptoms of DCS under simulated EVA profiles.

Kumar, K. Vasantha↗

Optimal experimental designs for the estimation of thermal properties of composite materials

Reliable estimation of thermal properties is extremely important in the utilization of new advanced materials, such as composite materials. The accuracy of these estimates can be increased if the experiments are designed carefully. The objectives of this study are to design optimal experiments to be used in the prediction of these thermal properties and to then utilize these designs in the development of an estimation procedure to determine the effective thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity). The experiments were optimized by choosing experimental parameters that maximize the temperature derivatives with respect to all of the unknown thermal properties. This procedure has the effect of minimizing the confidence intervals of the resulting thermal property estimates. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional experimental designs were optimized. A heat flux boundary condition is required in both analyses for the simultaneous estimation of the thermal properties. For the one-dimensional experiment, the parameters optimized were the heating time of the applied heat flux, the temperature sensor location, and the experimental time. In addition to these parameters, the optimal location of the heat flux was also determined for the two-dimensional experiments. Utilizing the optimal one-dimensional experiment, the effective thermal conductivity perpendicular to the fibers and the effective volumetric heat capacity were then estimated for an IM7-Bismaleimide composite material. The estimation procedure used is based on the minimization of a least squares function which incorporates both calculated and measured temperatures and allows for the parameters to be estimated simultaneously.

Scott, Elaine P.↗

The effect of differences in time to detection of circulating microbubbles on the risk of decompression sickness

Circulating microbubbles (CMB) are frequently detected prior to the appearance of symptoms of Decompression Sickness (DCS). It is difficult to analyze the effect of CMB on symptoms due to differences in the time to detection of CMB. This paper uses survival analysis models to evaluate the risk of symptoms in the presence of CMB. Methods: Information on 81 exposures to an altitude of 6,400 m (6.5 psi) for a period of three hours, with simulated extravehicular activities, was examined. The presence or absence of CMB was included as a time dependent covariate of the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Using this technique, the subgroup of exposures with CMB was analyzed further. Mean (S.D.) time in minutes to onset of CMB and symptoms were 125 (63) and 165 (33) respectively, following the three hours exposure. The risk of symptoms (17/81) increased 14 times in the presence of CMB, after controlling for variations in time to detection of CMB. Further, the risk was lower when time to detection of CMB was greater than 60 minutes (risk ratio = 0.96; 95 percent confidence intervals = 0.94 - 0.99 0.99 P less than 0.01) compared to CMB before 60 minutes at altitude. Conclusions: Survival analysis showed that individual risk of DCS changes significantly due to variations in time to detection of CMB. This information is important in evaluating the risk of DCS in the presence of CMB.

Kumar, K. V.↗

A ruggedness evaluation of procedures for damage threshold testing optical materials

A ruggedness evaluation of approaches to damage threshold testing was performed to determine the influence of three procedural variables on damage threshold data. The differences between the number of test sites evaluated at an applied fluence level (1 site versus 10 sites), the number of laser pulses at each test site (1 pulse versus 200 pulses), and the beam diameter (0.35 mm versus 0.70 mm) were all found to significantly influence the damage threshold data over a 99-percent confidence interval.

Hooker, Matthew W.↗

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Kauffmann, Paul J.↗

Cosmic temperature fluctuations from two years of COBE differential microwave radiometers observations

The first two years of Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy are analyzed and compared with our previously published first year results. The results are consistent, but the addition of the second year of data increases the precision and accuracy detected CMB temperature fluctuations. The 2 yr 53 GHz data are characterized by rms temperature fluctuations of (delta-T)(sub rms) (7 deg) = 44 +/- 7 micro-K and (delta-T)(sub rms) (10 deg) = 30.5 +/- 2.7 micro-K at 7 deg and 10 deg angular resolution, respectively. The 53 x 90 GHz cross-correlation amplitude at zero lag is C(0)(sup 1/2) = 36 +/- 5 micro-K (68% CL) for the unsmoothed (7 deg resolution) DMR data. We perform a likelihood analysis of the cross-correlation function, with Monte Carlo simulations to infer biases of the method, for a power-law model of initial density fluctuations, P(k) proportional to R(exp n). The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that derived estimates of n are biased by +0.11 +/- 0.01, while the subset of simulations with a low quadrupole (as observed) indicate a bias of +0.31+/- 0.04. Derived values for 68% confidence intervals are given corrected (and not corrected) for our estimated biases. Including the quadrupole anisotropy, the most likely quadrupole-normalized amplitude is Q(sub rms-PS) = 14.3(sup + 5.2 sub -3.3) micro-K (12.8(sup + 5.2 sub -3.3) micro-K0 with a spectral index n = 1.42(sup + 0.49 sub -0.55)(n = 1.53(sup + 0.49 sub -0.55). With n fixed to 1.0 the most likely amplitude is 18.2 +/- 11.5 micro-K (17.4 +/- 1.5 micro-K). The marginal likelihood of n is 1.42 +/- 0.37 (1.53 +/- 0.37). Excluding the quadrupole anisotropy, the most likely quadrupole-normalized amplitude is Q(sub rms-PS) = 17.4(sup + 7.5 sub -5.2) micro-K (15.8(sup + 7.5 sub -5.2) micro-K) with a spectral index n = 1.11(sup + 0.60 sub -0.55) (n = 1.22(sup + 0.60 sub -0.55). With n fixed to 1.0 the most likely amplitude is 18.6 +/- 1.6 micro-K (18.2 +/- 1.6 micro-K). The marginal likelihood of n is 1.11 +/- 0.40 (1.22 +/- 0.40). Our best estimate of the dipole from the 2 yr DMR data is 3.363 +/- 0.024 mK toward Galactic coordinates (l, b) = (264.4 deg +/- 0.2 deg, 48.1 deg +/- 0.4 deg), and our best estimate of the rms quadrupole amplitude in our sky is 6 +/- 3 micro-K (68% CL).

Bennett, C. L.↗

Estimating the Cramer-Rao bound for restored astronomical observations

This work addresses the problem of assigning confidence intervals to estimated photometry data obtained from astronomical observations. The proposed solution is to estimate the Cramer-Rao bound, which is an analytical expression that describes the minimum obtainable mean square error associated with a given estimate of a parameter. This Letter presents a compact and simple form for the bound associated with a linear estimator such as a Wiener filter estimator. A prescription for estimating the variance associated with each element in a restored object was developed using an analytical model for observed data corrupted by either Poisson or Gaussian noise. Both one- and two-dimensional examples are presented.

Zaccheo, T. S.↗

Measurements of halogenated organic compounds near the tropical tropopause

The amount of organic chlorine and bromine entering the stratosphere have a direct influence on the magnitude of chlorine and bromine catalyzed ozone losses. Twelve organic chlorine species and five organic bromine species were measured from 12 samples collected near the tropopause between 23.8 deg N and 25.3 deg N during AASE 2. The average mixing ratios of total organic chlorine and total organic bromine were 3.50 +/- 0.06 ppbv and 21.1 +/- 0.8 pptv, respectively. CH3Cl represented 15.1% of the total organic chlorine, with CFC 11 (CCl3F) and CFC 12 (CCl2F2) accounting for 22.6% and 28.2%, respectively, with the remaining 34.1% primarily from CCl4, CH3CCl3, and CFC 113 (CCl2FCClF2). CH3Br represented 54% of the total organic bromine. The 95% confidence intervals of the mixing ratios of all but four of the individual compounds were within the range observed in low and mid-latitude mid-troposphere samples. The four compounds with significantly lower mixing ratios at the tropopause were CHCl3, CH2Cl2, CH2Br2, and CH3CCl3. The lower mixing ratios may be due to entrainment of southern hemisphere air during vertical transport in the tropical region and/or to exchange of air across the tropopause between the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere.

Schauffler, S. M.↗

Non-sea-salt sulfate and methanesulfonate at American Samoa

High-volume bulk aerosol samples have been collected at American Samoa (14.25 deg S, 170.58 deg W) on a semicontinuous basis since the system was erected as part of the Sea/Air Exchange Program (SEAREX) in March 1983. In this report we consider those samples collected through May 6, 1992. For most of this period the sample filters were changed once a week. However, during November 1989 and from May 10 to June 10, 1990, in conjunction with the aircraft missions of the NASA Global Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE), the filters were changed daily. All of the samples were analyzed for nonsea-salt (nss) SO4(2-) and NO3(-). Analyses for methanesulfonate (MSA) include all of the 53 daily samples, 22 weekly samples from March 19, 1983, through April 12, 1984, and 96 weekly samples from January 3, 1990, through May 6, 1992. The mean concentrations (in micrograms per cubic meter) were 0.37 for nss SO4(2-), 0.0229 for MSA, 0.114 for NO3(-), and 5.1 for Na(+). Nss SO4(2-) and MSA are strongly linearly correlated in these 171 samples (r(exp 2) = 0.66) and the regression intercept does not differ significantly from zero. The geometric mean (GM) nss SO4(2-)/MSA ratio, 18.1 +/- 0.9 (where +/- indicates the 95% confidence interval of the GM) is about 7% higher than had previously been reported for this station. The ratio exhibits no significant seasonal variation. Although the ratio appeared to be significantly lower in the May - June 1990 daily samples (GM = 15.3 +/- 1.2), a further examination of the results indicated that the variance of the measured ratios from 18.1 (the GM for the whole data set) was attributable almost exclusively to the typical random errors in the analyses as determined from the 1 sigma analytical uncertainties of 5% for MSA and SO4(2-) and 2% for Na(+).

Savoie, Dennis L.↗

Uncertainties for two-dimensional models of solar rotation from helioseismic eigenfrequency splitting

Observed solar p-mode frequency splittings can be used to estimate angular velocity as a function of position in the solar interior. Formal uncertainties of such estimates depend on the method of estimation (e.g., least-squares), the distribution of errors in the observations, and the parameterization imposed on the angular velocity. We obtain lower bounds on the uncertainties that do not depend on the method of estimation; the bounds depend on an assumed parameterization, but the fact that they are lower bounds for the 'true' uncertainty does not. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals for estimates of the angular velocity from 1986 Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data, based on a 3659 element tensor-product cubic-spline parameterization, are everywhere wider than 120 nHz, and exceed 60,000 nHz near the core. When compared with estimates of the solar rotation, these bounds reveal that useful inferences based on pointwise estimates of the angular velocity using 1986 BBSO splitting data are not feasible over most of the Sun's volume. The discouraging size of the uncertainties is due principally to the fact that helioseismic measurements are insensitive to changes in the angular velocity at individual points, so estimates of point values based on splittings are extremely uncertain. Functionals that measure distributed 'smooth' properties are, in general, better constrained than estimates of the rotation at a point. For example, the uncertainties in estimated differences of average rotation between adjacent blocks of about 0.001 solar volumes across the base of the convective zone are much smaller, and one of several estimated differences we compute appears significant at the 95% level.

Genovese, Christopher R.↗

Subcluster mergers and galaxy infall in A2151

We have obtained a 12.5 ks image of the Hercules Cluster, A2151, with the ROSAT PSPC. Comparison of the optical and X-ray emission coincides with the highest-density peak in the distribution, and is bimodal. The northern subclummp, distinct in position and velocity, has no detectable X-ray gas. The eastern subclump, apparent in the optical contour map, is indistinguishable from the clump in velocity space, but is clearly visible in the X-ray image. X-ray spectra derived from the central peak of emission yield a best-fit temperature of 1.6 keV. The emission coincident with the eastern clump of galaxies is cooler, 0.8 keV, and is outside the 90% confidence intervals of the central peak temperature. We suggest that the eastern and central subclusters have recently undergone a merger event. The lack of X-ray emission to the north suggests that those galaxies do not form a physically distinct structure (i.e., they are not located within a distinct gravitational potential), but rather that they are falling into the cluster core along the filament defined by the Hercules Supercluster.

Bird, Christina M.↗

Effective Thermal Conductivity of an Aluminum Foam + Water Two Phase System

This study examined the effect of volume fraction and pore size on the effective thermal conductivity of an aluminum foam and water system. Nine specimens of aluminum foam representing a matrix of three volume fractions (4-8% by vol.) and three pore sizes (2-4 mm) were tested with water to determine relationships to the effective thermal conductivity. It was determined that increases in volume fraction of the aluminum phase were correlated to increases in the effective thermal conductivity. It was not statistically possible to prove that changes in pore size of the aluminum foam correlated to changes in the effective thermal conductivity. However, interaction effects between the volume fraction and pore size of the foam were statistically significant. Ten theoretical models were selected from the published literature to compare against the experimental data. Models by Asaad, Hadley, and de Vries provided effective thermal conductivity predictions within a 95% confidence interval.

Moskito, John↗

Measurements of Halogenated Organic Compounds near the Tropical Tropopause

The amount of organic chlorine and bromine entering the stratosphere have a direct influence on the magnitude of chlorine and bromine catalyzed ozone losses. Twelve organic chlorine species and five organic bromine species were measured from 12 samples collected near the tropopause between 23.8 deg N and 25.3 deg N during AASE 2. The average mixing ratios of total organic chlorine and total organic bromine were 3.50 +/- 0.06 ppbv and 21.1 +/- 0.8 pptv, respectively. CH3Cl represented 15.1% of the total organic chlorine, with CFC 11 (CCl3F) and CFC 12 (CCl2F2) accounting for 22.6% and 28.2%, respectively, with the remaining 34.1% primarily from CCl4, CH3CCl3, and CFC 113 (CCl2FCClF2). CH3Br represented 54% of the total organic bromine. The 95% confidence intervals of the mixing ratios of all but four of the individual compounds were within the range observed in low and mid-latitude midtroposphere samples. The four compounds with significantly lower mixing ratios at the tropopause were CHCl3, CH2Cl2, CH2Br2, and CH3CCl3. The lower mixing ratios may be due to entrainment of southern hemisphere air during vertical transport in the tropical region and/or to exchange of air across the tropopause between the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere.

Schauffler, S. M.↗

Cormack Research Project: Glasgow University

The aim of this project was to investigate and improve upon existing methods of analysing data from COMITEL on the Gamma Ray Observatory for neutrons emitted during solar flares. In particular, a strategy for placing confidence intervals on neutron energy distributions, due to uncertainties on the response matrix has been developed. We have also been able to demonstrate the superior performance of one of a range of possible statistical regularization strategies. A method of generating likely models of neutron energy distributions has also been developed as a tool to this end. The project involved solving an inverse problem with noise being added to the data in various ways. To achieve this pre-existing C code was used to run Fortran subroutines which performed statistical regularization on the data.

Skinner, Susan↗

Galaxy Cluster Shapes and Systematic Errors in H_0 as Determined by the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect

Imaging of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect in galaxy clusters combined with cluster plasma x-ray diagnostics promises to measure the cosmic distance scale to high accuracy. However, projecting the inverse-Compton scattering and x-ray emission along the cluster line-of-sight will introduce systematic error's in the Hubble constant, H_0, because the true shape of the cluster is not known. In this paper we present a study of the systematic errors in the value of H_0, as determined by the x-ray and SZ properties of theoretical samples of triaxial isothermal "beta-model" clusters, caused by projection effects and observer orientation relative to the model clusters' principal axes. We calculate three estimates for H_0 for each cluster, based on their large and small apparent angular core radii, and their arithmetic mean. We average the estimates for H_0 for a sample of 25 clusters and find that the estimates have limited systematic error: the 99.7% confidence intervals for the mean estimated H_0 analyzing the clusters using either their large or mean angular core r;dius are within 14% of the "true" (assumed) value of H_0 (and enclose it), for a triaxial beta model cluster sample possessing a distribution of apparent x-ray cluster ellipticities consistent with that of observed x-ray clusters.

Sulkanen, Martin E.↗

Application of Digital Particle Imaging Velocimetry to Turbomachinery

Digital Particle Imaging Velocimetry (DPIV) is a powerful measurement technique, which can be used as an alternative or complementary approach to Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) in a wide range of research applications. The instantaneous planar velocity measurements obtained with PIV make it an attractive technique for use in the study of the complex flow fields encountered in turbomachinery. Many of the same issues encountered in the application of LDV to rotating machinery apply in the application of PIV. Techniques for optical access, light sheet delivery, CCD camera technology and particulate seeding are discussed. Results from the successful application of the PIV technique to both the blade passage region of a transonic axial compressor and the diffuser region of a high speed centrifugal compressor are presented. Both instantaneous and time-averaged flow fields were obtained. The 95% confidence intervals for the time-averaged velocity estimates were also determined. Results from the use of PIV to study surge in a centrifugal compressor are discussed. In addition, combined correlation/particle tracking results yielding super-resolution velocity measurements are presented.

Wernet, Mark P.↗

Service Quality in the U.S. Airline Industry: Variations in Performance Within Airlines and Between Airlines and the Industry

This study examined the service quality of 25 U.S. airlines (1987-1996) using data from the Department of Transportation's Air Travel Consumer Report. After a total quality and total complaint rate was calculated for these airlines, a 95 percent confidence interval was placed around the yearly and company means calculated to examine those cases that were significantly different from the mean. Results indicate that while the major carriers are converging toward a higher level of quality, there continues to be significant yearly variation. The service quality of regional carriers was much lower than major carriers and showed much greater variation.

Rhoades, Dawna L.↗