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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Associations between cumulative environmental quality and ten selected birth defects in Texas

Abstract Background Causes of most birth defects are largely unknown. Genetics, maternal factors (e.g., age, smoking) and environmental exposures have all been linked to some birth defects, including neural tube, oral cleft, limb reduction, and gastroschisis; however, the contribution of cumulative exposures across several environmental domains in association with these defects is not well understood. Methods The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its domains (air, water, land, sociodemographic, built) were used to estimate county‐level cumulative environmental exposures from 2006–2010 and matched to birth defects identified from Texas Birth Defects Registry and live birth records from births in years 2007–2010 ( N = 1,610,709). Poisson regression models estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between 10 birth defects and the EQI. Results We observed some positive associations between worst environmental quality and neural tube, anencephaly, spina bifida, oral cleft, cleft palate, cleft lip with and without cleft palate, and gastroschisis [PR range: 1.12–1.55], but near null associations with limb reduction defects. Among domain specific results, we observed the strongest positive associations with the sociodemographic domain across birth defects but varied positive associations among the air and water domains, and negative or null associations with the land and built domains. Overall, few exposure‐response patterns were evident. Conclusions Our results highlight the complexities of cumulative, simultaneous environmental exposures in the prevalence rates of 10 selected birth defects. We were able to explore the impact of overall and domain specific environmental quality on birth defects and identify potential domain specific drivers of these associations.

Krajewski, Alison K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pan‐Cancer Survival Impact of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in a National Healthcare System

ABSTRACT Background The cumulative, health system‐wide survival benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear, particularly among real‐world patients with limited life expectancies and among subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials. We sought to determine the health system‐wide survival impact of ICIs. Methods We identified all patients receiving PD‐1/PD‐L1 or CTLA‐4 inhibitors from 2010 to 2023 in the national Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system (ICI cohort) and all patients who received non‐ICI systemic therapy in the years before ICI approval (historical control). ICI and historical control cohorts were matched on multiple cancer‐related prognostic factors, comorbidities, and demographics. The effect of ICI on overall survival was quantified with Cox regression incorporating matching weights. Cumulative life‐years gained system‐wide were calculated from the difference in adjusted 5‐year restricted mean survival times. Results There were 27,322 patients in the ICI cohort and 69,801 patients in the historical control cohort. Among ICI patients, the most common cancer types were NSCLC (46%) and melanoma (10%). ICI demonstrated a large OS benefit in most cancer types with heterogeneity across cancer types (NSCLC: adjusted HR [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.58,p < 0.001; urothelial: aHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83–1.01,p = 0.066). The relative benefit of ICI was stable across patient age, comorbidity, and self‐reported race subgroups. Across VHA, 15,859 life‐years gained were attributable to ICI within 5‐years of treatment, with NSCLC contributing the most life‐years gained. Conclusion We demonstrated substantial increase in survival due to ICIs across a national health system, including in patient subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Risk and incidence of head and neck cancers in veterans living with HIV and matched HIV‐negative veterans

Background Persons living with HIV/AIDS have a higher incidence of virus‐related and tobacco/alcohol‐related cancers. This study is the first to estimate the effect of HIV versus HIV‐negative veterans on the risk of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma incidence in a large retrospective cohort study. Methods The authors constructed a retrospective cohort study using patient data from 1999 to 2016 from the National Veterans Administration Corporate Data Warehouse and the VA Central Cancer Registry. This cohort study included 45,052 veterans living with HIV/AIDS and 162,486 HIV‐negative patients matched by age, sex, and index visit (i.e., HIV diagnosis date or clinic visit date). The age‐standardized incidence rates and estimated adjusted hazard ratios were calculated with a Cox proportional hazards regression for oropharyngeal and nonoropharyngeal head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The authors also abstracted human papillomavirus (HPV) status from oropharyngeal HNSCC diagnosed after 2010. Results Veterans living with HIV/AIDS (VLWH) have 1.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36, 2.14) times the risk of oropharyngeal cancer and 2.06 (95% CI, 1.76, 2.42) times the hazard of nonoropharyngeal cancer compared with HIV‐negative veterans. VLWH with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) were more likely to be HPV‐positive ( N = 30 [81.1%]) than the HIV‐negative veterans with OPSCC ( N = 50 [67.6%]), although this difference was not significant ( p = .135). For nonoropharyngeal cancer, the increased risk of oral cavity cancer among VLWH drove the increased risk. Conclusions The study results suggest that HIV may play a role in virally mediated and nonvirally mediated HNSCC. As the HIV prevalence rises in the United States due to better survival and the incidence of HPV‐positive oropharyngeal HNSCC increases, the interaction between HPV and HIV becomes increasingly relevant.

Mazul, Angela L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Changes in Trace Metal Bioavailability in the Sediment Pore water of a Constructed Wetland Using Passive Pore water Samplers

Sediments in aquatic systems often act as a major sink for contaminants. Diffusive gradient in thin films (DGTs) and in situ equilibrium dialysis samplers (peepers) are two major in situ pore water sampling devices that overcome the problems associated with conventional pore water sampling methods. In the present study, DGTs and peepers were used to study the spatial and seasonal effects (cool months, October–February; warm months, May–September) on metal bioavailability in the H‐02 constructed wetland and the sink versus source role of the sediments by calculating the metal resupply capacity. Data showed similar seasonal trends in metal concentrations using passive samplers, peepers, and DGTs. Pooled Cu and Zn concentrations measured using DGTs were lower in warm months (1.67 ± 1.50 and 2.62 ± 0.68 μg L –1 , respectively, p < 0.001) versus in cool months (2.12 ± 0.65 and 5.58 ± 1.33 μg L –1 , respectively, p < 0.001; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Sulfate (SO 4 2− ) concentrations were significantly (p = 0.0139) lower in warm months (averaged at 0.22 ± 0.05 mg L –1 ) compared to in cool months (0.16 ± 0.05 mg L –1 ). The increase in SO 4 2− concentration is an indicator of the lower activity of sulfate‐reducing bacteria, which need SO 4 2− during anaerobic respiration, in which SO 4 2− is reduced to sulfide (S 2– ) that forms insoluble salts with Cu and Zn, which could partially explain the higher bioavailability of these metals in the cool season. Metal resupply capacity of the sediments was mostly <0.2 for Cu and Zn. Taken together, the H0‐2 wetland sediments mostly acted as a sink to both Cu and Zn over the course of the present study. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2726–2736. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk in Japan: A pooled analysis of eight population‐based cohort studies

Abstract Although alcohol consumption is reported to increase the incidence of breast cancer in European studies, evidence for an association between alcohol and breast cancer in Asian populations is insufficient. We conducted a pooled analysis of eight large‐scale population‐based prospective cohort studies in Japan to evaluate the association between alcohol (both frequency and amount) and breast cancer risk with categorization by menopausal status at baseline and at diagnosis. Estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual cohorts and combined using random‐effects models. Among 158 164 subjects with 2 369 252 person‐years of follow‐up, 2208 breast cancer cases were newly diagnosed. Alcohol consumption had a significant association with a higher risk of breast cancer in both women who were premenopausal at baseline (regular drinker compared to nondrinker: HR 1.37, 1.04‐1.81, ≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.74, 1.25‐2.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .017) and those who were premenopausal at diagnosis (≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.89, 1.04‐3.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .032). In contrast, no significant association was seen in women who were postmenopausal at baseline or at diagnosis, despite a substantial number of subjects and long follow‐up period. Our results revealed that frequent and high alcohol consumption are both risk factors for Asian premenopausal breast cancer, similarly to previous studies in Western countries. The lack of a clear association in postmenopausal women in our study warrants larger investigation in Asia.

Iwase, Madoka↗
DOE OSTI2023

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population‐based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m 2 ); normal (18.5‐22.9 kg/m 2 ); overweight (23‐24.9 kg/m 2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m 2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02‐1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14‐1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Oze, Isao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone‐related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16–1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13–14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50–4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08–2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Shin, Aesun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Stage N3 of the Eighth Edition AJCC Staging System for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Objectives To validate stage nodal (N)3 of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods This retrospective cohort study extracted NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2016. Pathologically confirmed patients with complete data of level IV, N3a, and N3b lymph node metastasis were investigated. The included patients were divided into level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Five‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) were compared among the three groups. Results A total of 693 patients were included: 285 (41.13%) patients in the level IV group, 124 (17.89%) patients in the N3a group, and 284 (40.98%) patients in the N3b group. The 5‐year OS (57.1%, 55.0%, and 55.2%) and CSS (64.4%, 63.5%, and 64.4%) were not different among the level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that N stage was not an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91–1.17; P = .65) or CSS (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89–1.19; P = .70). Conclusion Stage N3 of the 8th edition AJCC staging system for NPC is reasonable. Level of Evidence III Laryngoscope , 131:535–540, 2021

Pan, Xin‐Bin↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mathematical assessment of the isolation random forest method for anomaly detection in big data

We present the mathematical analysis of the Isolation Random Forest Method (IRF Method) for anomaly detection, proposed by Liu F.T., Ting K.M. and Zhou Z. H. in their seminal work as a heuristic method for anomaly detection in Big Data. We prove that the IRF space can be endowed with a probability induced by the Isolation Tree algorithm (iTree). In this setting, the convergence of the IRF method is proved, using the Law of Large Numbers. Here, a couple of counterexamples are presented to show that the method is inconclusive and no certificate of quality can be given, when using it as a means to detect anomalies. Hence, an alternative version of the method is proposed whose mathematical foundation is fully justified. Furthermore, a criterion for choosing the number of sampled trees needed to guarantee confidence intervals of the numerical results is presented. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to compare the performance of the classic method with the proposed one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Population Dynamics and Temporal Trends of Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract Because of their long-term listing under the Endangered Species Act, much interest has been placed on estimating population vital rates for Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the biotic and abiotic factors that influence the interannual variability in those vital rates have rarely been evaluated. We used mark–recapture data to estimate fish growth, survival, and trends in abundance for fluvial adult Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Over an 8-year period, a total of 1,205 individual Bull Trout were collected at a weir on the East Fork Salmon River (29 km upstream of its confluence with the Salmon River) during June–September, of which 420 were recaptures from prior years. Bull Trout varied in length from 215 to 756 mm and achieved a slightly larger asymptotic length and a slightly lower rate of growth relative to other fluvial and adfluvial Bull Trout populations. Apparent survival averaged 0.42 across all years, which was similar to previous studies estimating apparent survival for Bull Trout. The number of emigrating anadromous salmonid smolts in the upper Salmon River basin positively influenced East Fork Salmon River Bull Trout growth and survival, and survival was higher in years with lower annual discharge. Assessment of population growth via linear regression analysis indicated that the Bull Trout population was increasing during the study period (λ = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.03–1.14). Our findings highlight the ecological link between the abundance of wild and hatchery Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Sockeye Salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss smolts and growth and survival of adult Bull Trout in systems where these species occur in sympatry.

Roth, Curtis J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Scale-Derived Ages in Wild Juvenile and Adult Steelhead Using Parental-Based Tagging

Abstract Accurate age information is a critical component in fisheries monitoring, management, and research. The ability to assign accurate ages to fish by using nonlethal structures is vital in calculating cohort productivity for fish species with low abundances and variable life histories. A common nonlethal method to assign ages is by interpretation of patterns in scales. Validation of ages is not easily obtained for free-ranging fishes; however, the development of genetic “tags” has expanded age validation opportunities. In this study, we used parental-based genetic tagging to validate ages determined from scales collected from juvenile and adult steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in two streams within the Snake River basin. Juvenile scale ages were in agreement with 93% of the known ages. Adult scale ages were in agreement with 89% of the known ages. Although overall bias in juvenile ages was very low, we saw a slight positive bias in younger fish (young of the year and age 1) and a small negative bias in older juveniles (ages 2–4). A small negative bias in ages of adults was a consequence of errors in freshwater age. The errors observed did not significantly bias age compositions because the 90% confidence intervals about the age proportions based on scales contained the known proportions; therefore, scale analysis is an acceptable method for assigning ages to Snake River steelhead. We discuss the value of validated known-age scales as a reference collection, and as an illustrative use, we constructed a circulus count guide to aid technicians in identifying missing annuli and distinguishing true from false annuli. To demonstrate the use of the circulus guidelines, we reanalyzed samples with age discrepancies, applying the circulus count data and the known age to identify mistakes.

Reinhardt, Leslie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical suppression of invasive Northern Pike in Box Canyon Reservoir, Washington

Abstract Objective Northern Pike Esox lucius recently invaded Box Canyon Reservoir, Washington, expanding to over 10,000 individuals by 2011. To limit further impacts, a significant reduction in population abundance was required. Project objectives were to reduce relative abundance (catch per unit effort [CPUE]) to less than 1.7 Northern Pike/net (87% reduction) in the core area and to less than 0.5 Northern Pike/net in the northern reservoir section within 3 years and then maintain those abundance targets thereafter. Methods Using gill nets, we conducted intensive annual (2012–2018) suppression each spring, focusing on spawning aggregations in shallow (<2-m), flooded habitats. To evaluate CPUE, a standardized spring pike index netting (SPIN) survey was conducted annually in May and compared to suppression netting CPUE. Result In total, 17,464 Northern Pike were removed in 4868 net sets, with 92.9% captured in the first 3 years, limiting future recruitment. Mean SPIN CPUE in the core area declined from a presuppression (2011) high of 13.2 Northern Pike/net to less than 1.0 Northern Pike/net by 2014. Effort was reduced by up to 80% as the project transitioned from the initial suppression phase (2012–2014) to a control phase (2015–2018), which explored the minimum effort required to maintain abundance targets. A significant rebound in CPUE occurred from 2017 to 2018, indicating that over 267 net sets annually may be required for long-term control. Although the mean CPUE (±95% confidence interval) increased slightly in 2018 (0.6 ± 0.5 Northern Pike/net), the target abundance in the core area was achieved annually from 2013 to 2018. Changes in suppression CPUE reflected those observed in SPIN surveys, further validating the survey and corroborating abundance trends. Conclusion Results demonstrate that the suppression of Northern Pike in large, complex waters is feasible but requires a substantial long-term commitment. We expect the suppression of this invasive species to become standard practice outside of its native range. The methodology and equipment described here could be applied directly or modified by others to suppress Northern Pike.

Bean, Nicholas J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sources of error in detonation calorimeters and error analysis for neat 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5- trinitrobenzene (TATB)

Here, a calorimeter for measuring heats of detonation at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is described. A calibration precision of 0.2 % at the 95 % confidence interval (CI) is reported. Sources of uncertainty are discussed, including nonequivalent sources, which are those arising from differences between calibration and experimental tests. The systematic error due to nonequivalent sources is bounded to 0.19–0.22 % of the measured heat for a standard detonation test where the confinement material is gold. The recommendation is to correct for the systematic error by adding 0.19 % to the reported value and adding 0.03 % to the uncertainty. It is demonstrated that the precision of a detonation test is variable with testing duration because a source of uncertainty resides in the thermodynamic correction factor k6, which accounts for the contribution to heat by stirring; the generated power is additive and therefore highly impacted by total test time. The relative proportion also varies with the magnitude of heat release and sample size, adding variance to the weight of the error arising from the correction factor. A full error analysis based on the described sources of uncertainty is developed. The methodology is applied to a test series on neat 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5- trinitrobenzene (TATB), demonstrating an ultimate precision of 0.7 % (single test) for materials testing and a relative standard deviation of 1.8 %.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗