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NASA NTRS2018

Operator Trust Function for Predicted Drone Arrival

To realize the full benefit from autonomy, systems will have to react to unknown events and uncertain dynamic environments. The resulting number of behaviors is essentially infinite; thus, the system is effectively non-deterministic but an operator needs to understand and trust the actions of the autonomous vehicles. This research began to tackle non-deterministic systems and trust by beginning to develop a user trust function based on intent information displayed and the prescribed bounds on allowable behaviors/actions of the non-deterministic system. Linear regression shows promise on being able to predict a person’s confidence of the machine’s prediction. Linear regression techniques indicated that subject characteristics, scenario difficulty, the experience with the system, and confidence earlier in the scenario account for approximately 60% of the variation in confidence ratings. This paper details the specifics of the liner regression model – essentially a trust function – for predicting a person’s confidence.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FloodPlanet: High-Resolution Commercial Imagery for Training and Validation of Deep Learning-Based Models of Inundation Extent

Flooding events are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide and are known to cause extensive damage. Public optical and radar satellite imagery can be used to detect large areas of inundation in rural areas, however, long revisit times and coarse spatial resolution limit applications for short-lived events and urban areas. Commercial constellations such as those operated by Planet offer increased spatial and temporal resolution and can supplement mapping efforts to provide more information to disaster response, relief, and mitigation efforts. Deep learning requires high quality labeled data for training across coincident sensors. The FloodPlanet dataset presented here contains labeled surface water for 18 events across the world based on Planetscope imagery with coincident Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 ( HLS) or Sentinel-1 and builds upon the previously existing Sen1Floods11, xBD, and NASA Sentinel-1 datasets. Sen1Floods11 includes 4,831 512x512 pixel overlapping tiles of coincident Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data observing 11 flood events across the world from 2017-2019. The dataset contains a combination of automated and hand-labeled surface water for use in training and validation of inundation modeling efforts. The xBD dataset identifies flood-damaged buildings and indicates the scale of damage to each (none, minor, moderate, and major) from four flood events which occurred in the United States, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh from the same time period. The NASA dataset contains hand-labeled water bodies observed in Sentinel-1 imagery during five flood events within the 2017-2019 period. The effort presented here utilizes observations from these previously investigated flood events to generate labels of surface water at the 3-5m spatial resolution provided by Planetscope and facilitate the comparison between public and commercial data. A data pipeline was built which uses clustering algorithms to pick the most suitable overlapping chips between the public data and PlanetScope data for manual labeling. Labels were created manually using NASA’s ImageLabeler tool and include areas of high- and low-confidence water. The high confidence designation is reserved for areas of open, unobstructed water while low confidence is used for areas of suspected water beneath vegetation, clouds, or cloud shadows. Expected to be released in late 2022, the FloodPlanet dataset will include tiled imagery with a unique ID for each 1024x1024 pixel tile, 7 bands of HLS data, and high- and low-confidence flood labels in both shapefile and tiff formats. The authors will follow Spatial Temporal Access Catalog (STAC) guidelines to release FloodPlanet on the Radiant Earth ML hub, which hosts public datasets for machine learning.

Alexander Melancon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging the 2024 Solar Eclipse to Enhance Science Learning through Citizen Science

The solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, provided a rare and compelling opportunity for educators and students to engage in hands-on citizen science. Two NASA Science Activation projects GLOBE Mission Earth (GME) and NASA Earth Science Education Collaborative (NESEC) partnered together to provide a unique professional development experience for educators interested in the eclipse. They invited educators to participate in a specialized 5-week online workshop designed to engage the educators in Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) citizen science about the eclipse. The workshop was designed to support their certification as GLOBE educators and develop their knowledge, skills, and confidence in conducting a GLOBE investigation. Over 60 educators from across the United States took part in this workshop, which focused on investigating the eclipse by collecting and analyzing atmospheric data. The GLOBE Program promotes environmental and scientific literacy by enabling participants to collect Earth science data and contribute it to a global database accessible for research. The 2024 GLOBE Eclipse workshop trained educators in specific GLOBE protocols—Clouds, Air Temperature, and Surface Temperature—using the GLOBE Eclipse tool integrated into the GLOBE Observer app. This training was supplemented with guidance on engaging students in authentic scientific research and creating research posters to present their findings. The workshop aimed to enhance educators’ skills and confidence in integrating GLOBE protocols into their teaching practices. It addressed several key areas outlined in the National Academies' report on Learning through Citizen Science, including scientific context, nature of participation, and project infrastructure. Educators learned about the atmospheric effects of solar eclipses and were trained to use scientific tools and data analysis methods relevant to their research. They also engaged in live sessions and asynchronous activities, practicing data collection and analysis with real-time feedback. Survey results from the workshop highlighted that participants were primarily motivated by the desire to better use data in their classrooms and improve their proficiency with the GLOBE Observer app. Post-workshop evaluations showed significant increases in educators' confidence regarding their ability to conduct and guide scientific research. Participants reported feeling well-prepared to use the GLOBE Observer app for data collection and were successful in integrating their eclipse observations into classroom activities. Participants also valued the opportunity to contribute to authentic science through GLOBE, which involved observing atmospheric changes such as air temperature fluctuations and cloud cover alterations during the eclipse. The success of the workshop is evident in the increased confidence and skill levels of educators, as well as the publication of research posters on the GLOBE Mission Earth Student Research webpage.This session will discuss how the GLOBE Eclipse workshop series effectively utilized the unique context of the solar eclipse to enhance science education through citizen science. By adhering to the principles outlined in the Learning through Citizen Science framework, the workshop successfully engaged educators and students in meaningful scientific practices, demonstrating the potential of citizen science to enrich science education and foster a deeper understanding of Earth systems.

Jessica Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Operator Workload and Task Allocation in m:N Operational Architectures of Uncrewed Aerial Systems

Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) show promise in urban air transport, package delivery, and emergency services. UAS efficiency can be significantly improved by having fewer operators (m) manage a greater number of vehicles (N), or the m:N architecture of operation. The current study investigates how workload affects operators’ task-allocation decision-making and potential effects of two crucial human factors: trust and self-confidence. In the context of a simulated UAS package-delivery task, 10 participants with expertise in UAS operation were recruited. Each participant reported their preferred task-allocation strategy for a set of five subtasks while watching two sets of videos with different workload levels. Perceived workload, trust, and self-confidence were also measured after each video session. Overall, participants indicated a preference for automation for most of the subtasks under the delivery mission. Trust, rather than workload and self-confidence, played a significant role in experts’ decisions of task-allocation and assignment methods. Higher trust led to higher preference for automation.

workload↗
NASA NTRS1983

Determining Normal-Distribution Tolerance Bounds Graphically

Graphical method requires calculations and table lookup. Distribution established from only three points: mean upper and lower confidence bounds and lower confidence bound of standard deviation. Method requires only few calculations with simple equations. Graphical procedure establishes best-fit line for measured data and bounds for selected confidence level and any distribution percentile.

Mezzacappa, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Forced convection heat transfer to air/water vapor mixtures

Heat transfer coefficients were measured using both dry and humid air in the same forced convection cooling scheme and were compared using appropriate nondimensional parameters (Nusselt, Prandtl and Reynolds numbers). A forced convection scheme with a complex flow field, two dimensional arrays of circular jets with crossflow, was utilized with humidity ratios (mass ratio of water vapor to air) up to 0.23. The dynamic viscosity, thermal conductivity and specific heat of air, steam and air/steam mixtures are examined. Methods for determining gaseous mixture properties from the properties of their pure components are reviewed as well as methods for determining these properties with good confidence. The need for more experimentally determined property data for humid air is discussed. It is concluded that dimensionless forms of forced convection heat transfer data and empirical correlations based on measurements with dry air may be applied to conditions involving humid air with the same confidence as for the dry air case itself, provided that the thermophysical properties of the humid air mixtures are known with the same confidence as their dry air counterparts.

Richards, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A modified VAPEPS method for predicting vibroacoustic response of unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels

VAPEPS (VibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is a computer program used to predict the vibroacoustic response of a structure. An alternate VAPEPS modeling technique, the Modified NASA Lewis Method, is an improvement for modeling unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels. The Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction is compared to the standard ASMS VAPEPS prediction, and the acoustic test data for three spacecraft panels. An analytical method of computing variance is presented and used to compute 95 percent confidence levels. These levels are compared to the standard VAPEPS confidence levels and to the envelope of the test data. As a result of using the new methodology suggested in the paper, both the mean prediction and the 95 percent confidence level prediction agree well with the test data in both spectral shape and magnitude. Therefore, the Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction methodology may be used to define more realistic random vibration test levels.

Mcnelis, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Pivotal-Function Assessment Of Reliability Of Software

Approach developed to establish utility of pivotal functions for estimation and prediction of reliability of software. Improved estimates of reliability with statistical confidence obtained when relatively few testing data available. Pivotal functions effective tools for determination of confidence limits for reliability of software and prediction limits for time to next failure. Provides exact confidence and prediction limits regardless of how many bugs found in software.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A modified VAPEPS method for predicting vibroacoustic response of unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels

VAPEPS (vibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is a computer program used to predict the vibroacoustic response of a structure. An alternate VAPEPS modeling technique, the Modified NASA Lewis Method, is an improvement for modeling unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels. The Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction is compared to the standard ASMS VAPEPS prediction, and the acoustic test data for three spacecraft panels. An analytical method of computing variance is presented and used to compute 95 percent confidence levels. These levels are compared to the standard VAPEPS confidence levels and to the envelope of the test data. As a result of using the new methodology suggested in the paper, both the mean prediction and the 95 percent confidence level prediction agree well with the test data in both spectral shape and magnitude. Therefore, the Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction methodology may be used to define more realistic random vibration test levels.

Mcnelis, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A classification of the galaxy groups

A statistical criterion has been proposed to reveal the random and physical clusterings among stars, galaxies and other objects. This criterion has been applied to the galaxy triples of the list by Karachentseva, Karaschentsev and Scherbanovsky, and the double galaxies of the list by Dahari where the primary components are the Seyfert galaxies. The confident physical, probable physical, probable optical and confident optical groups have been identified. The limit difference of radial velocities of components for the confident physical multiple galaxies has also been estimated.

Anosova, Joanna P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A comment on the suspected solar neutrino -- solar activity connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (namely, solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (namely, solar particles), based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the chi-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Absorption in X-ray spectra of high-redshift quasars

We present evidence that X-ray absorption is common in high-redshift quasars. We have studied six high-redshift (z approximately 3) quasars with the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) of which four are in directions of low Galactic N(sub H). Three out of these four show excess absorption, while only three in approximately 50 z approximately less than 0.4 quasars do, indicating that such absorption must be common, but not ubiquitous, at high redshifts, and that the absorbers must lie at z greater than 0.4. The six quasars were: S5 0014+81, Q0420-388, PKS 0438-436, S4 0636+680. PKS 2000-330, PKS 2126-158, which have redshifts between 2.85 and 3.78. PKS 0438-436 and PKS 2126-158 show evidence for absorption above the local Galactic value at better than 99.999% confidence level. If the absorber is at the redshift of the quasar, then values of N(sub H) = (0.86(+0.49, -0.28)) x 10(exp 22) atoms/sq cm for PKS 0438-436, and N(sub H) = (1.45(+1.20, -0.64)) x 10(exp 22) atoms/ sq cm for PKS 2126-158, are implied, assuming solar abundances. The spectrum of S4 0636+680 also suggests the presence of a similarly large absorption column density at the 98% confidence level. This absorption reverses the trend for the most luminous active galactic nuclei (AGN) to have the least X-ray absorption, so a new mechanism is likely to be responsible. Intervening absorption due to damped Lyman(alpha) systems is a plausible cause. We also suggest, as an intrinsic model, that intracluster material, e.g., a cooling flow, around the quasar could account for both the X-ray spectrum and other properties of these quasars. All the quasars are radio-loud and three are gigahertz peaked (two of the three showing absorption). No excess absorption above the Galactic value is seen toward Q0420-388. This quasar has two damped Lyman(alpha) systems at z = 3.08. The limit on the X-ray column density implies a low ionization fraction, N(H I)/N(H) approximately greater than 4 x 10(exp -3) (3 (sigma)), for solar abundances, for these systems, and can set a weak limit on the size of the absorber. In the emitted frame these PSPC spectra cover the band approximately 0.5-10 keV, which has been well observed for low-redshift quasars and AGN. Comparison of high and low-redshift spectra in this emitted band shows no change of mean spectral index greater than Delta alpha(sub E) greater than 0.3 (99% confidence) with either redshift or luminosity, for radio-loud quasars.

Elvis, Martin↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Comment on the Suspected Solar Neutrino-Solar Activity Connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (viz., solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (viz., solar particles), based on the (chi)-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the (chi)-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Satellite Sensed Skin Sea Surface Temperature

Quantitative predictions of spatial and temporal changes the global climate rely heavily on the use of computer models. Unfortunately, such models cannot provide the basis for climate prediction because key physical processes are inadequately treated. Consequently, fine tuning procedures are often used to optimize the fit between model output and observational data and the validation of climate models using observations is essential if model based predictions of climate change are to be treated with any degree of confidence. Satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations provide high spatial and temporal resolution data which is extremely well suited to the initialization, definition of boundary conditions and, validation of climate models. In the case of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the SST (or more correctly the 'Skin' SST (SSST)) is a fundamental diagnostic variable to consider in the validation process. Daily global SST maps derived from satellite sensors also provide adequate data for the detection of global patterns of change which, unlike any other SST data set, repeatedly extend into the southern hemisphere extra-tropical regions. Such data are essential to the success of the spatial 'fingerprint' technique, which seeks to establish a north-south asymmetry where warming is suppressed in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Some estimates suggest that there is a greater than 80% chance of directly detecting significant change (97.5 % confidence level) after 10-12 years of consistent global observations of mean sea surface temperature. However, these latter statements should be qualified with the assumption that a negligible drift in the observing system exists and that biases between individual instruments required to derive a long term data set are small. Given that current estimates for the magnitude of global warming of 0.015 K yr(sup -1) - 0.025 K yr(sup -1), satellite SST data sets need to be both accurate and stable if such a warming trend is to be confidently detected. Some of these activities are focussed to develop and deploy instrumentation suitable for the collection of precise in situ measurements of the SSST which can be used to improve the accuracy of satellite measurements, while others develop techniques to generate improved global analyses of sea surface temperature using historical data.

Donlon, Craig↗
NASA NTRS1996

Improved Limits on Gamma-Ray Burst Repetition from BATSE

We tighten previous upper limits on gamma-ray burst repetition by analyzing the angular power spectrum of the BATSE 3B catalog of 1122 bursts. At 95% confidence, we find that no more than 2% of all observed bursts can be labeled as repeaters, even if no sources are observed to repeat more than once. If a fraction f of all observed bursts can be labeled as repeaters that are observed to burst upsilon times each, then all models with (upsilon - 1)f greater than or equal to 0.05 are ruled out at 99% confidence, as compared to the best previous 99% limit (upsilon - 1)f greater than or equal to 0.27. At 95% confidence, our new limit is (upsilon - 1)f greater than or equal to 0.02. Thus, even a cluster of six events from a single source would have caused excess power above that present in the 3B catalog. We conclude that the current BATSE data are consistent with no repetition of classical gamma-ray bursts and that any repeater model is severely constrained by the near-perfect isotropy of their angular distribution.

Tegmark, Max↗
NASA NTRS1996

Improved Limits on Gamma-Ray Burst Repetition from BATSE

We tighten previous upper limits on gamma-ray burst repetition by analyzing the angular power spectrum of the BATSE 3B catalog of 1122 bursts. At 95% confidence, we find that no more than 2% of all observed bursts can be labeled as repeaters, even if no sources are observed to repeat more than once. If a fraction f of all observed bursts can be labeled as repeaters that are observed to burst nu times each, then all models with (nu - 1)f greater than or equal to 0.05 are ruled out at 99% confidence, as compared to the best previous 99% limit (nu - 1)f greater than or equal to 0.27. At 95% confidence, our new limit is (nu - 1)f greater than or equal to 0.02. Thus, even a cluster of six events from a single source would have caused excess power above that present in the 3B catalog. We conclude that the current BATSE data are consistent with no repetition of classical gamma-ray bursts and that any repeater model is severely constrained by the near-perfect isotropy of their angular dis- tribution.

Tegmark, Max↗
NASA NTRS1999

UV Spectral Variability and the Lyman-Alpha Forest in the Lensed Quasar Q0957+561

Far-ultraviolet spectra of the gravitational lens components Q0957+561 A and B were obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) at five equally spaced epochs, one every two weeks. We confirm the flux variability of the quasar's Lyman-alpha and O VI lambda 1037 emission lines reported in IUE (International Ultraviolet Explorer) spectra. The fluxes in these lines vary on a time scale of weeks in the local rest frame (LRF), independently of each other and of the surrounding continuum. The individual spectra of each image were co-added to investigate the properties of the Lyman-alpha forest along the two lines of sight to the quasar. Absorption lines having equivalent width W (sub lambda) greater than or equal to 0.3 Angstroms in the LRF not previously identified as interstellar lines, metal lines, or higher order Lyman lines were taken to be LY-alpha forest lines. The existence of each line in this consistently selected set was then verified by its presence in two archival FOS spectra with approx. 1.5 times higher signal to noise than our co-added spectra. Ly-alpha forest lines with W (sub lambda) greater than or equal to 0.3 Angstroms appear at 42 distinct wavelengths in the spectra of the two images. Two absorption lines in the spectrum of image A have no counterpart at that wavelength in the spectrum of image B, and two lines in image B have no counterpart in image A. Based on the separation of the lines of sight at the redshift of the absorption lines appearing in only one spectrum, the density of the absorbing clouds in the direction of Q0957+561 must change significantly over a distance of 79 (+34, -26) h (sub 50) (sup -1) kpc in the simplified model where the absorbers are treated as spherical clouds and the characteristic dimension is the radius. (We adopt H (sub 0)= 50 h (sub 50) km s (sup -1) kpc (sup -1), q (sub 0) = 1/2, and LAMBDA = 0 throughout the paper.) The two limits define the 68% confidence interval on the characteristic dimension, equivalent to the 1 sigma confidence interval for a Gaussian distribution. The 95% confidence interval extends from (32 - 250) h (sub 50) (sup -1) kpc. We show in the Appendix that the fraction of Ly-alpha forest lines that appear in only one spectrum can be expressed as a rapidly converging power series in 1/r, where r the ratio of the radius of the cloud to the separation of the two LOS at the redshift of the cloud. This power series can be rewritten to give r in terms of the fraction of Ly-alpha forest wavelengths that appear in the spectrum of only one image. A simple linear approximation to the solution which everywhere agrees with the power series solution to better than 0.8% for r greater than or equal to 2 is derived in the Appendix.

Dolan, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Cooperative Robotics and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life

If we think tenuous abodes of life may be hiding in remote extraterrestrial environmental niches, and if we want to assess the biological status of a given locale or entire planet before sending humans (perhaps because of contamination concerns or other motivations) then we face the challenge of robotically exploring a large space efficiently and in enough detail to have confidence in our assessment of the biological status of the environment in question. On our present schedule of perhaps two or so missions per opportunity, we will likely need a different exploratory approach than singular stationary landers or singular rover missions or sample return, because there appear to be fundamental limitations in these mission profiles to-obtain the many samples we will likely need if we want to have confidence in assessing the biological status of an environment in which life could be hiding in remote environmental niches. Singular rover missions can potentially accommodate sampling over a fairly large area, but are still limited by range and can be a single point of failure. More importantly, such mission profiles have limited payload capabilities which are unlikely to meet the demanding requirements of life-detection. Sample return has the advantage of allowing sophisticated analysis of the sample, but also has the severe limitations associated with only being able to bring back a few samples. This presentation will suggest two cooperative robotic approaches for exploration that have the potential to overcome these difficulties and facilitate efficient and thorough life-detecting exploration of a large space. Given the two premises state above, it appears at least two fundamental challenges have to be met simultaneously: coverage of a large space and bringing to bear a sophisticated suite of detection and experimental payloads on any specific location in order to address a major challenge in looking for extraterrestrial life: namely, executing a wide variety of detection scenarios and in situ experiments in order to gather the required data for a confident assessment that life has been detected and to, more generally, cover a wide range of extraterrestrial life possibilities. Cooperative robotics ]ends itself to this kind of problem because cooperation among the combined capabilities of a variety of simple single function agents can give rise to fairly complex task execution such as the search for and detection of extraterrestrial life.

Lupisella, Mark L.↗