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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Status of Multiple Channel Fuel Performance Capabilities Within the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Software

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a fast-running simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. It is a critical element of safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy and is utilized within industry to perform the transient safety analyses required to support the licensing of Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs). Although SAS is exceptionally fast for most transient scenarios, fuel performance calculations, along with the associated pre-transient characterization of the fuel pin, may be required for transient scenarios where fuel pin failure is hypothesized. Both the pre-transient characterization and the transient fuel performance calculation are necessary to properly quantify margins to potential fuel failure and assess the time spent potentially exceeding such margins during events. While safety analysis calculations with fuel performance models provide a more detailed characterization of the reactor during a transient, the pre-transient characterization can be time-consuming and computationally expensive. Often, large numbers of fuel pins have been exposed to similar pre-transient irradiation conditions. Similarly, the same pre-transient fuel characterization may be applicable to numerous transient conditions. This provides an opportunity to optimize the SAS computational framework such that pre-transient fuel characterization can be shared across multiple channels (fuel pins) and across multiple simulations, thus dramatically reducing overall computational costs. This report summarizes progress toward enhancing the SAS computational framework to support shared, multiple channel fuel performance characterizations intended to significantly reduce computational costs. Preliminary testing has shown that the computational time saved by using the pre-transient sharing capability is approximately equal to the time it takes to perform the pre-transient characterization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling of regional geophysics and local soil-structure models in the EQSIM fault-to-structure earthquake simulation framework

Accurate understanding and quantification of the risk to critical infrastructure posed by future large earthquakes continues to be a very challenging problem. Earthquake phenomena are quite complex and traditional approaches to predicting ground motions for future earthquake events have historically been empirically based whereby measured ground motion data from historical earthquakes are homogenized into a common data set and the ground motions for future postulated earthquakes are probabilistically derived based on the historical observations. This procedure has recognized significant limitations, principally due to the fact that earthquake ground motions tend to be dictated by the particular earthquake fault rupture and geologic conditions at a given site and are thus very site-specific. Historical earthquakes recorded at different locations are often only marginally representative. There has been strong and increasing interest in utilizing large-scale, physics-based regional simulations to advance the ability to accurately predict ground motions and associated infrastructure response. However, the computational requirements for simulations at frequencies of engineering interest have proven a major barrier to employing regional scale simulations. In a U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Initiative project, the EQSIM application development is underway to create a framework for fault-to-structure simulations. This framework is being prepared to exploit emerging exascale platforms in order to overcome computational limitations. This article presents the essential methodology and computational workflow employed in EQSIM to couple regional-scale geophysics models with local soil-structure models to achieve a fully integrated, complete fault-to-structure simulation framework. Here, the computational workflow, accuracy and performance of the coupling methodology are illustrated through example fault-to-structure simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Issue Summary of INL Phase IV Transient Results for IAEA CRP on HTGR UAM Benchmark

This report details the Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Code System (PHISICS)/Reactor Excursions and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5)-3D results obtained for the transient core exercises defined for Phase IV of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on high-temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) uncertainty analysis in modeling (UAM). The Phase III models and results are linked to the earlier Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE)/Sampler/New ESC-based Weighting Transport (NEWT) data generated for the lattice physics (lattice) stage Phase I of the CRP. The focus of this report is the Uncertainty/Sensitivity Assessment (U/SA) of the prismatic modular high-temperature gas cooled reactor (MHTGR)-350 design, and specifically for Exercises IV-1 and IV-2 of the benchmark: the Control Rod Withdrawal (CRW) and Pressurised Loss of Cooling (PLOFC) events. The statistical U/SA methodology is implemented and demonstrated using the RAVEN code, based on perturbed cross-section libraries obtained from the SCALE/Sampler sequence. Uncertainties in nuclear data (cross-sections and the average number of neutrons produced per fission, 235U[¯v ]) lead to standard deviations (uncertainties of one s) of approximately 0.5% in the core eigenvalues of the MHTGR-350 and core models. For the coupled neutronics/thermal fluid model, local power density uncertainties up to 3.6% were observed in the colder regions of the core, while the local maximum fuel temperature uncertainties reached 1.5% for the models that included thermal fluid uncertainties. The addition of thermal fluid uncertainties dominated the impacts of nuclear data uncertainties in all cases. The main contributors to uncertainties in the power density and fuel temperatures during the transients were uncertainties in the reactor operating conditions (total power, inlet mass flow rate and inlet gas temperature). Variations in the bypass flows did not have significant impact on any of the output variables. For the nuclear data uncertainties it was found that the 235U(¯v ) / 235U(¯v ) covariance produced the largest sensitivities in terms of its impact on the eigenvalue and peak reactor power. It was also observed that the impact of any nuclear data uncertainties on the maximum fuel temperature was much less significant that the impact on eigenvalue and power. Another important finding was that although the use of eight or more energy groups is recommended for best-estimate HTGR simulation, two-group models produced acceptable uncertainty and sensitivity results for most FOMs. Since the statistical U/SA methodology is computationally expensive, and most transient solver requirements will scale directly with the number of energy groups, two energy groups could be used by HTGR developers during the early stages of design when larger uncertainty margins can be tolerated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report: FY22

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package, is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are relevant to the current and future stockpile. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS). Additionally, this work is being used to test a newly available framework in W-13, Weapons Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaled-up fabrication of durable and porous adsorbent-coated minichannels on aluminum for CO 2 separation

A method was developed to fabricate zeolite 13X adsorbent-coated minichannels on aluminum for CO₂ adsorption applications in this study. It emphasizes the innovative use of aluminum as a substrate, which offers airtight assembly, paving the way for highly efficient adsorption systems. An optimized coating process was developed using a slurry of Zeolite 13X, yeast, sugar, and xanthan gum, resulting in durable and highly porous layers that enhance CO₂ capture performance. A PETG peeler was designed to remove the top layer of the yeast-engineered adsorbent coatings, revealing a super porous and foamy structure. The teeth of the peeler were designed and fabricated for high repeatability and rapid prototyping. Breakthrough experiments were conducted on the scaled-up adsorbent bed using gas mixtures of 80% CO₂, 20% N₂, and 20% CO₂, 80% N₂ to represent different industrial scenarios. The performance of the bed was evaluated at flow rates of 160 and 190 cm³ min -1 using a Raman Laser Gas Analyzer (RLGA), demonstrating stable adsorption without degradation across multiple cycles. Computational modeling of integral transport phenomena under the chosen experimental conditions was pursued using gPROMS ProcessBuilder™, and the modeling results were compared with those from the tests for adsorption time, which resulted in an error margin of 2% to 9% for the breakthrough time, confirming the easy reproducibility of the design through modeling. This research advances CO₂ capture technologies by providing an effective and scalable solution for producing aluminum-based adsorbent coated beds, supporting industrial carbon capture efforts.

CO2 capture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ion-temperature- and density-gradient-driven instabilities and turbulence in Wendelstein 7-X close to the stability threshold

Electrostatic gyrokinetic instabilities and turbulence in the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator are studied. Particular attention is paid to the ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) instability and its character close to marginal stability [Floquet-type turbulence (Zocco et al., Phys. Rev. E, vol. 106, 2022, p. L013202) with no electron temperature gradient]. The flux tube version of the δƒ code stella (Barnes et al., J. Comput. Phys., vol. 391, 2019, pp. 365–380) is used to run linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations with kinetic electrons. The nature of the dominant instability depends on the wavelength perpendicular to the magnetic field, and the results are conveniently displayed in stability diagrams that take this dependence into account. This approach highlights the presence of universal instabilities, which are less unstable but have longer wavelengths than other modes. A quasi-linear estimate of the heat flux suggests they are relevant for transport. Close to the stability threshold, the linear eigenmodes and turbulence form highly extended structures along the computational domain if the magnetic shear is small. Numerical experiments and diagnostics are undertaken to assess the resulting radial localisation of the turbulence, which affects the interaction of the latter with zonal flows. Increasing the amplitude of the magnetic shear (e.g.through current drive) has a stabilising effect on the turbulence and, thus, reduces the nonlinear energy transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Modeling of Plutonium Radiation Chemistry in Nitric Acid Solutions. 1. Cobalt-60 Gamma Irradiation of Pu(IV)

We report careful manipulation of the plutonium oxidation states is essential in the study and utilization of its rich redox chemistry. To achieve this level of control, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry is critical due to the unavoidable exposure of plutonium to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. To this end, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multiscale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu(IV) redox chemistry in concentrated nitric acid solutions (1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 M). Under these acidic, aqueous solution conditions, cobalt-60 gamma irradiation afforded marginal net conversion of Pu(IV) to Pu(VI), the extent of which was dependent on the concentration of HNO 3 and absorbed gamma dose. Multiscale calculations, which are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicate that this observation is due to a combination of inherent plutonium disproportionation reactions and several radiation-induced processes, including redox cycling between Pu(IV) and Pu(III), as achieved by the reduction of Pu(IV) by nitrous acid and hydrogen peroxide, the oxidation of Pu(III) by nitrate and hydroxyl radicals, and the sequential oxidation of Pu(IV) to Pu(V) and Pu(VI) by the remaining available yield of nitrate radicals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constrained variational optimization of counting-time allocation in sequential scattering measurements: Application to Bonse–Hart USANS

Sequential scattering measurements are often performed under a fixed experimental-time budget, even though the expected count rate varies strongly across the measured coordinate. When the dwell time at each measurement position can be controlled independently, this variation creates a general resource-allocation problem: how should the available time be distributed to minimize the uncertainty of the reconstructed profile? We formulate this problem as a constrained variational optimization for measurements governed by Poisson counting statistics. When each measurement is treated independently, minimizing the averaged squared relative uncertainty yields an inverse-square-root intensity allocation. The formulation is then generalized to include correlations between neighboring measurements and an instrumental resolution operator, leading to an allocation criterion that equalizes the marginal reduction in posterior uncertainty per unit measurement time. Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS), in which reciprocal space is sampled sequentially through analyzer-angle stepping, provides an experimentally grounded application. Computational benchmarking shows that the optimized allocation outperforms uniform-time and constant-relative-error strategies, while application to an experimentally measured graphite USANS profile from the Spallation Neutron Source, using Poisson resampling under alternative schedules, demonstrates how counting time should be redistributed toward weak-intensity regions under an identical total duration. The resulting framework applies to sequential scattering and related scanning measurements whenever local dwell times are adjustable and directly determine the measurement uncertainties, and when the relevant correlation and instrumental-response models are available.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structure-Informed Graph Learning of Networked Dependencies for Online Prediction of Power System Transient Dynamics

Online transient analysis plays an increasingly important role in dynamic power grids as the renewable generation continues growing. Traditional numerical methods for transient analysis not only are computationally intensive but also require precise contingency information as input, and therefore, are not suitable for online applications. Existing online transient assessment studies focus on the determination of post-contingency system stability or stability margin. Here, this paper develops a novel graph-learning framework, Deep-learning Neural Representation or DNR, for online prediction, of the time-series trajectories of the system states using initial system responses that can be measured by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed DNR framework consists of two sequential modules: a Network Constructor that captures network dependencies among generators, and a Dynamics Predictor that predicts the system trajectories. The key to improved prediction performance is the introduction of the spatio-temporal message-passing operations into graph neural networks with structural knowledge. Its effectiveness and scalability are validated through comparative studies, demonstrating the prediction performance under different contingency scenarios for systems of different sizes. This framework provides a solution to online predicting post-fault system dynamics based on real-time PMU measurements. Additionally, it can also be applied to facilitate the offline transient simulation without simulating the entire trajectories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Rate Constant for NH 2 +HO 2 and Third-Body Collision Efficiencies for NH 2 +H(+M) and NH 2 +NH 2 (+M)

In low-temperature flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 mixtures, the NH 2 consumption rate and the product distribution is controlled by the reactions NH 2 + HO 2 → products (R1), NH 2 + H (+M) → NH 3 (+M) (R2), and NH 2 + NH 2 (+M) → N 2 H 4 (+M) (R3). In the present work, published flash photolysis experiments by, among others, Cheskis and co-workers, are re-interpreted using recent direct measurements of NH 2 + H (+N 2 ) and NH 2 + NH 2 (+N 2 ) from Altinay and Macdonald. To facilitate analysis of the FP data, relative third-body collision efficiencies compared to N 2 for R2 and R3 were calculated for O 2 and NH 3 as well as for other selected molecules. We report results were in good agreement with the limited experimental data. Based on reported NH 2 decay rates in flash photolysis of NH 3 /O 2 /N 2 , a rate constant for NH 2 + HO 2 → NH 3 + O 2 (R1a) of $k_{1\text{a}}$ = 1.5(±0.5) × 10 14 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K was derived. This value is higher than earlier determinations based on the FP results but in good agreement with recent theoretical work. Kinetic modeling of reported N 2 O yields indicates that NH 2 + HO 2 → H 2 NO + O (R1c) is competing with R1a, but perturbation experiments with addition of CH4 indicate that it is not a dominating channel. Measured HNO profiles indicate that this component is formed directly by NH 2 + HO 2 → HNO + H 2 O (R1b), but theoretical work indicates that R1b is only a minor channel. Based on this analysis, we estimate $k_{1\text{c}}$ = 2.5 × 10 13 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 and $k_{1\text{b}}$ = 2.5 × 10 12 cm 3 mol –1 s –1 at 295 K, with significant uncertainty margins.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

On Using Linux Kernel Huge Pages with FLASH, an Astrophysical Simulation Code

We present efforts at improving the performance of FLASH, a multi-scale, multi-physics simulation code principally for astrophysical applications, by using huge pages on Ookami, an HPE Apollo 80 A64FX platform. FLASH is written principally in modern Fortran and makes use of the PARAMESH library to manage a block-structured adaptive mesh. We explored options for enabling the use of huge pages with several compilers, but we were only able to successfully use huge pages when compiling with the Fujitsu compiler. As a result, the use of huge pages substantially reduced the number of translation lookaside buffer misses, but overall performance gains were marginal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machining digital twin for hybrid manufacturing

Hybrid manufacturing consisting of metal additively manufactured preforms and computer numerical control (CNC) machining has been established to be an effective method for high material use rates. However, hybrid manufacturing introduces unique challenges. Near-net shape designs are typically selected, which result in a smaller margin for part placement within the stock and stringent requirements for work coordinate system identification. Additionally, less stock material reduces the preform stiffness, which limits the material removal rates during machining. This paper demonstrates a digital twin for CNC machining of a wire arc additively manufactured preform that implements: 1) structured light scanning for stock model identification and tool path generation; 2) a fused filament fabrication apparatus to attach temporary fiducials and scan targets to the preform that enable coordinate system definition for both the CAM and CNC machine; 3) preform and tool tip frequency response function measurements to enable stable milling parameter selection; and 4) post-manufacturing measurements of geometry, surface finish, and structural dynamics to confirm designer intent. These efforts define key components of the machining digital twin for hybrid manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of water valuation metrics: Supporting sustainable water use in manufacturing

In the manufacturing sector, water has been often considered too cheap to conserve. Such thinking relies on water valuations that limit the value of water to the price paid. Using such simple methods, the share of water cost to total manufacturing cost is significantly small, <3%. As a result, conserving water and enabling technology uptake is difficult to justify economically and slow to advance, hindering progress toward sustainable water use. However, the value of water to a manufacturer is far greater than the price paid. Valuations such as the true cost of water consider the additional in-plant treatment and energy costs and have been gaining greater traction in the manufacturing sector. However, true cost alone still undervalues water by not accounting for economic and social costs related to scarcity and environmental externalities. This paper makes the case and presents a framework for valuing manufacturing water beyond the price paid and the true cost. The proposed fuller valuation of manufacturing water takes into account the internal and opportunity costs associated with the realization of water risks. The paper follows with a review of a wide range of water valuation metrics, both at the specific industry level and regional/economy-wide level. The use of various valuation metrics incorporating the relationship between the change in value with change in water use, such as marginal value of water, shadow price, and elasticity at the specific industry level, has been limited in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Further, a limited number of studies exist on data-intensive subjective evaluation techniques such as computable general equilibrium modeling and input-output modeling for regional water valuation. After reviewing water value metrics, several recent case studies from manufacturers from the literature are presented to illustrate both the promise and challenges of a fuller valuation of water as proposed here. Some large multinational corporations have moved toward assessing the value of water via supply chain sustainability initiatives, environmental profit and loss accounting, estimating risk-adjusted values of water, hydro-economic modeling, natural capital asset valuation, and developing value chain indices. This paper provides policymakers and technology developers a framework for monetizing water value beyond its true cost and current metrics. If adopted, such fuller water valuations can help make the business case for the development and deployment of cost-effective water-conserving technologies, thereby improving the sustainability of the manufacturing sector with respect to water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond Capacity Credits: Adaptive Stress Period Planning for Evolving Power Systems

This paper combines and applies concepts from several researchers to outline an alternative framework to plan power systems for resource adequacy needs, which we call Adaptive Stress Period Planning (ASPP). It first provides background information regarding least-cost planning objectives and the challenge of balancing an increasing need for model representation with computational intensity as power systems evolve in complexity. Next, it motivates the opportunity for a new paradigm by outlining challenges of frameworks in use today that rely on aggregate capacity heuristics (i.e., capacity credits and planning reserve margins). Subsequently, it lays out main process details of ASPP, which more directly represents spatial and temporal dynamics of power systems in a capacity expansion model with a process to adaptively select risk periods. The paper concludes with a summary of the approach, its benefits, and opportunities for future work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of driver head pose dynamics and instantaneous driving in safety critical events: Application of computer vision in naturalistic driving

This paper investigates the role of driver behavior especially head pose dynamics in safety–critical events (SCEs). Using a large dataset collected in a naturalistic driving study, this paper analyzes the head pose dynamics and driving behavior in moments leading up to crashes or near-crashes. The study uses advanced computer vision and mixed logit modeling techniques to identify patterns and relationships between drivers’ head pose dynamics and crash involvement. The results suggest that driver-head pose dynamics, especially poses that indicate distraction and movement volatility, are important factors that can contribute to undesirable safety outcomes. Marginal effects show that angular deviation for head pose dynamics indicated by yaw, pitch and roll increase the likelihood of crash intensity by 4.56%, 4.92% and 8.26% respectively. Furthermore, traffic flow and lane changing also contribute to increase in likelihood of crash intensity. These findings provide new insights into pre-crash factors, especially human factors and safety–critical events. The study highlights the importance of considering human factors in designing driver assistance systems and developing safer vehicles. This research contributes by examining naturalistic driving data at the microscopic level with early detection of behaviors that lead to SCEs and provides a basis for future research on automation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Language of Reliability: A System Engineer Perspective

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗