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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

High-Performance Reaction Wheel Optimization for Fine-Pointing Space Platforms: Minimizing Induced Vibration Effects on Jitter Performance plus Lessons Learned from Hubble Space Telescope for Current and Future Spacecraft Applications

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) applies large-diameter optics (2.5-m primary mirror) for diffraction-limited resolution spanning an extended wavelength range (approx. 100-2500 nm). Its Pointing Control System (PCS) Reaction Wheel Assemblies (RWAs), in the Support Systems Module (SSM), acquired an unprecedented set of high-sensitivity Induced Vibration (IV) data for 5 flight-certified RWAs: dwelling at set rotation rates. Focused on 4 key ratios, force and moment harmonic values (in 3 local principal directions) are extracted in the RWA operating range (0-3000 RPM). The IV test data, obtained under ambient lab conditions, are investigated in detail, evaluated, compiled, and curve-fitted; variational trends, core causes, and unforeseen anomalies are addressed. In aggregate, these values constitute a statistically-valid basis to quantify ground test-to-test variations and facilitate extrapolations to on-orbit conditions. Accumulated knowledge of bearing-rotor vibrational sources, corresponding harmonic contributions, and salient elements of IV key variability factors are discussed. An evolved methodology is presented for absolute assessments and relative comparisons of macro-level IV signal magnitude due to micro-level construction-assembly geometric details/imperfections stemming from both electrical drive and primary bearing design parameters. Based upon studies of same-size/similar-design momentum wheels' IV changes, upper estimates due to transitions from ground tests to orbital conditions are derived. Recommended HST RWA choices are discussed relative to system optimization/tradeoffs of Line-Of-Sight (LOS) vector-pointing focal-plane error driven by higher IV transmissibilities through low-damped structural dynamics that stimulate optical elements. Unique analytical disturbance results for orbital HST accelerations are described applicable to microgravity efforts. Conclusions, lessons learned, historical context/insights, and perspectives on future applications are given; these previously unpublished data and findings represents a valuable resource for fine-pointing spacecraft or space-based platforms using RWAs, Control Moment Gyros (CMGs), Momentum Wheels, or other ball-bearing-based rotational units.

Hasha, Martin D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimized Quantum Compilation for Near-Term Algorithms with OpenPulse

Quantum computers are traditionally operated by programmers at the granularity of a gate-based instruction set. However, the actual device-level control of a quantum computer is performed via analog pulses. Here, we introduce a compiler that exploits direct control at this microarchitectural level to achieve significant improvements for quantum programs. Unlike quantum optimal control, our approach is bootstrapped from existing gate calibrations and the resulting pulses are simple. Our techniques are applicable to any quantum computer and realizable on current devices. We validate our techniques with millions of experimental shots on IBM quantum computers, controlled via the OpenPulse control interface. For representative benchmarks, our pulse control techniques achieve both 1.6x lower error rates and 2x faster execution time, relative to standard gate-based compilation. These improvements are critical in the near-term era of quantum computing, which is bottlenecked by error rates and qubit lifetimes.

Gokhale, Pranav↗
DOE OSTI2022

The global spectrum of plant form and function: enhanced species-level trait dataset

Here we provide the ‘Global Spectrum of Plant Form and Function Dataset’, containing species mean values for six vascular plant traits. Together, these traits –plant height, stem specific density, leaf area, leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen content per dry mass, and diaspore (seed or spore) mass – define the primary axes of variation in plant form and function. The dataset is based on ca. 1 million trait records received via the TRY database (representing ca. 2,500 original publications) and additional unpublished data. It provides 92,159 species mean values for the six traits, covering 46,047 species. The data are complemented by higher-level taxonomic classification and six categorical traits (woodiness, growth form, succulence, adaptation to terrestrial or aquatic habitats, nutrition type and leaf type). Data quality management is based on a probabilistic approach combined with comprehensive validation against expert knowledge and external information. Intense data acquisition and thorough quality control produced the largest and, to our knowledge, most accurate compilation of empirically observed vascular plant species mean traits to date.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Metabolic Reaction Networks with Perturbation-Theory Machine Learning (PTML) Models

Background: Checking the connectivity (structure) of complex Metabolic Reaction Networks(MRNs) models proposed for new microorganisms with promising properties is an importantgoal for chemical biology. Objective: In principle, we can perform a hand-on checking (Manual Curation). However, this is achallenging task due to the high number of combinations of pairs of nodes (possible metabolic reactions). Results: The CPTML linear model obtained using the LDA algorithm is able to discriminate nodes(metabolites) with the correct assignation of reactions from incorrect nodes with values of accuracy,specificity, and sensitivity in the range of 85-100% in both training and external validation dataseries. Methods: In this work, we used Combinatorial Perturbation Theory and Machine Learning techniquesto seek a CPTML model for MRNs >40 organisms compiled by Barabasis’ group. First, wequantified the local structure of a very large set of nodes in each MRN using a new class of node indexcalled Markov linear indices fk. Next, we calculated CPT operators for 150000 combinationsof query and reference nodes of MRNs. Last, we used these CPT operators as inputs of differentML algorithms. Conclusion: Meanwhile, PTML models based on Bayesian network, J48-Decision Tree and RandomForest algorithms were identified as the three best non-linear models with accuracy greaterthan 97.5%. The present work opens the door to the study of MRNs of multiple organisms usingPTML models.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using FENOSOL{sup TM} Phenolic Foam as a Shock Absorber for Type B Packaging - 17256

Type B and fissile material transportation packages are designed to withstand deformation from dynamic forces experienced during impacts in hypothetical accident conditions. A critical aspect is to ensure the containment system is not breached. The package design normally includes impact limiters made up of a shell filled with energy-absorbing material. Various types of materials are used as energy absorbers, including wood, foam, and honeycomb structures. Synthetic foam is an ideal material for impact limiters; it has isotropic material properties, it acts as a heat insulator during fire conditions, and it maintains structural integrity at high temperatures. In addition, the density of the foam may be controlled during the manufacturing process, allowing the cask designer flexibility to select the right density for each application. The foam properties can be used as inputs for numerical simulations of dynamic impacts. These simulations are a key component of the safety analysis report for Type B transportation casks. Robatel has recently invested in equipment to produce FENOSOL{sup TM} phenolic foam in our factory for use in our cask designs. This acquisition was made jointly between Robatel and the CEA, with Robatel ensuring the industrialization of the product. In the past decade, this foam was successfully integrated into more than 10 European cask designs, and there has been extensive in-laboratory characterization of its properties. FENOSOL{sup TM} has already been accepted by the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) as a shock absorbing material for use in cask designs. Since the acquisition of the phenolic foam production process by Robatel, a new research and development program has been launched to provide more accurate information to our clients, extend the range of application of this foam, and to improve its properties. Robatel has built an extensive database of material characteristics through the use of a universal mechanical tester, a scanning electron microscope, and a nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometer. In addition, Robatel has successfully implemented FENOSOL{sup TM} in two recent cask designs. This included scale model drop testing of a 9 meter drop in three orientations, and a pin puncture drop test. Robatel is in the process of producing FENOSOL{sup TM} samples for testing according to ASTM standards. Various densities will be included in the study. The testing will include duro-meter hardness, specific heat, thermal conductivity, compressive strength and modulus, and tensile strength. Once the testing is complete, Robatel will compile the data in the form of product specification sheets for each density. These information sheets and test reports will be used to validate FENOSOL{sup TM} for use in future impact limiters for the North American Type B cask market. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Data Reporting Standards for High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) Thermal-Fluid Experiments

Since 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy's Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) has been at the forefront of nuclear research, specifically concentrating on advancing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technologies. By Fiscal Year 2023, NEUP has authorized 35 projects dedicated to HTGR research, each contributing significantly to the enhancement of our understanding of this technology. The outcomes of these diverse projects have been disseminated through final NEUP reports, peer-reviewed journal articles, and presentations at academic conferences, forming a comprehensive tapestry of knowledge. Despite the substantial value of these findings, their dissemination has been fragmented, posing challenges for accessibility to researchers and policymakers and leading to underutilization of DOE investments. Recognizing this critical gap and its potential consequences for the future of nuclear research, the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) program conducted an extensive survey of completed and ongoing HTGR NEUP projects. This survey enabled the compilation of crucial data, resulting in the development of a specialized public-access database tailored for computational fluid dynamics and system code validation, specifically designed for HTGR applications. However, the data collection process revealed a significant challenge in central data organization due to individual researchers from different institutes employing varying logics and preferences for recording and documenting experimental data. Consequently, an urgent need has been identified to establish a standardized reporting format for HTGR experimental projects. Addressing this issue is essential for enhancing collaboration, maximizing the impact of DOE investments, and ensuring the seamless advancement of HTGR technologies in nuclear research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗
NASA NTRS1975

Assessment of NDE reliability data

Twenty sets of relevant nondestructive test (NDT) reliability data were identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations was formulated, and a model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets was developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, were formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program was written and debugged to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence limits by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. An example of the calculated reliability of crack detection in bolt holes by an automatic eddy current method is presented.

Yee, B. G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optical Characterization of a Multipoint Lean Direct Injector for Gas Turbine Combustors: Velocity and Fuel Drop Size Measurements

Performance of a multipoint, lean direct injection (MP-LDI) strategy for low emission aero-propulsion systems has been tested in a Jet-A fueled, lean flame tube combustion rig. Operating conditions for the series of tests included inlet air temperatures between 672 and 828 K, pressures between 1034 and 1379 kPa and total equivalence ratios between 0.41 and 0.45, resulting in equilibrium flame temperatures approaching 1800 K. Ranges of operation were selected to represent the spectrum of subsonic and supersonic flight conditions projected for the next-generation of commercial aircraft. This document reports laser-based measurements of in situ fuel velocities and fuel drop sizes for the NASA 9-point LDI hardware arranged in a 3 3 square grid configuration. Data obtained represent a region of the flame tube combustor with optical access that extends 38.1-mm downstream of the fuel injection site. All data were obtained within reacting flows, without particle seeding. Two diagnostic methods were employed to evaluate the resulting flow path. Three-component velocity fields have been captured using phase Doppler interferometry (PDI), and two-component velocity distributions using planar particle image velocimetry (PIV). Data from these techniques have also offered insight into fuel drop size and distribution, fuel injector spray angle and pattern, turbulence intensity, degree of vaporization and extent of reaction. This research serves to characterize operation of the baseline NASA 9- point LDI strategy for potential use in future gas-turbine combustor applications. An additional motive is the compilation of a comprehensive database to facilitate understanding of combustor fuel injector aerodynamics and fuel vaporization processes, which in turn may be used to validate computational fluid dynamics codes, such as the National Combustor Code (NCC), among others.

Heath, Christopher M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Lunar Observations to Validate In-Flight Calibrations of Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System Instruments

The validation of in-orbit instrument performance requires stability in both instrument and calibration source. This paper describes a method of validation using lunar observations scanning near full moon by the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. Unlike internal calibrations, the Moon offers an external source whose signal variance is predictable and non-degrading. From 2006 to present, in-orbit observations have become standardized and compiled for the Flight Models-1 and -2 aboard the Terra satellite, for Flight Models-3 and -4 aboard the Aqua satellite, and beginning 2012, for Flight Model-5 aboard Suomi-NPP. Instrument performance parameters which can be gleaned are detector gain, pointing accuracy and static detector point response function validation. Lunar observations are used to examine the stability of all three detectors on each of these instruments from 2006 to present. This validation method has yielded results showing trends per CERES data channel of 1.2% per decade or less.

Daniels, Janet L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite

Background: Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals. Objectives: The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different endpoints: LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labelling hazard categories, very toxic chemicals (LD50 =50 mg/kg), and non-toxic chemicals (LD50 >2000 mg/kg). Methods: An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches. Results: The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared to in vivo results. Discussion: CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for over 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the NTP’s Integrated Chemical Environment. The models are also implemented in a free, standalone open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS1990

A flight-dynamic helicopter mathematical model with a single flap-lag-torsion main rotor

A mathematical model of a helicopter system with a single main rotor that includes rigid, hinge-restrained rotor blades with flap, lag, and torsion degrees of freedom is described. The model allows several hinge sequences and two offsets in the hinges. Quasi-steady Greenberg theory is used to calculate the blade-section aerodynamic forces, and inflow effects are accounted for by using three-state nonlinear dynamic inflow model. The motion of the rigid fuselage is defined by six degrees of freedom, and an optional rotor rpm degree of freedom is available. Empennage surfaces and the tail rotor are modeled, and the effect of main-rotor downwash on these elements is included. Model trim linearization, and time-integration operations are described and can be applied to a subset of the model in the rotating or nonrotating coordinate frame. A preliminary validation of the model is made by comparing its results with those of other analytical and experimental studies. This publication presents the results of research compiled in November 1989.

Takahashi, Marc D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Genome-Wide Transcription Factor DNA Binding Sites and Gene Regulatory Networks in Clostridium thermocellum

Clostridium thermocellum is a thermophilic bacterium recognized for its natural ability to effectively deconstruct cellulosic biomass. While there is a large body of studies on the genetic engineering of this bacterium and its physiology to-date, there is limited knowledge in the transcriptional regulation in this organism and thermophilic bacteria in general. The study herein is the first report of a large-scale application of DNA-affinity purification sequencing (DAP-seq) to transcription factors (TFs) from a bacterium. We applied DAP-seq to > 90 TFs in C. thermocellum and detected genome-wide binding sites for 11 of them. We then compiled and aligned DNA binding sequences from these TFs to deduce the primary DNA-binding sequence motifs for each TF. These binding motifs are further validated with electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and are used to identify individual TFs’ regulatory targets in C. thermocellum . Our results led to the discovery of novel, uncharacterized TFs as well as homologues of previously studied TFs including RexA-, LexA-, and LacI-type TFs. We then used these data to reconstruct gene regulatory networks for the 11 TFs individually, which resulted in a global network encompassing the TFs with some interconnections. As gene regulation governs and constrains how bacteria behave, our findings shed light on the roles of TFs delineated by their regulons, and potentially provides a means to enable rational, advanced genetic engineering of C. thermocellum and other organisms alike toward a desired phenotype.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Genome-wide Transcription Factor DNA Binding Sites and Gene Regulatory Networks in Clostridium thermocellum

Clostridium thermocellum is a thermophilic bacterium recognized for its natural ability to effectively deconstruct cellulosic biomass. While there is a large body of studies on the genetic engineering of this bacterium and its physiology to-date, there is limited knowledge in the transcriptional regulation in this organism and thermophilic bacteria in general. The study herein is the first report of a high-throughput application of DNA-affinity purification sequencing (DAP-seq) to transcription factors (TFs) from a thermophile. We applied DAP-seq to >90 TFs in C. thermocellum and detected genome-wide binding sites for 11 of them. We then compiled and aligned DNA binding sequences from these TFs to deduce the primary DNA-binding sequence motifs for each TF. These binding motifs are further validated with electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and are used to identify individual TFs’ regulatory targets in C. thermocellum. Our results led to the discovery of novel, uncharacterized TFs as well as homologues of previously studied TFs including RexA-, LexA- and LacI-type TFs. We then used these data to reconstruct gene regulatory networks for the 11 TFs individually, which resulted in a global network encompassing the TFs with some interconnections. As gene regulation governs and constrains how bacteria behave, our findings shed light on the roles of TFs delineated by their regulons, and potentially provides a means to enable rational, advanced genetic engineering of C. thermocellum and other organisms alike towards a desired phenotype.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Kenya Food Security & Agriculture II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance Drought Warning Systems and Develop Capacity to Use the RHEAS Model in Kenya

Twenty-three counties in Kenya experience frequent drought, which damages agricultural productivity and threatens the health and well being of millions. NASA DEVELOP partnered with NASA SERVIR, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) to enhance drought-detection capacity using NASA Earth observations. Currently, the NDMA publishes monthly Early Warning Bulletins with drought conditions for each arid or semi-arid county in Kenya. These bulletins utilize the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) from the Moderate Resolution ImagingSpectroradiometer (MODIS) as well as a variety of biophysical, social and economic drought indicators, but do not allow for advanced forecasting. To improve drought-monitoring capabilities, the team created a Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) using the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) model and data from Aqua and Terra MODIS and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The CDI combined precipitation anomalies, soil moisture anomalies, evaporative stress, and VCI according to weights determined by principal component analysis. To evaluate the performance of the CDI across Kenya, the team compiled a dataset of drought events from historical reports and the NDMA’s records. Results suggested that the CDI detected drought earlier thanVCI alone. However, more validation is needed to ensure that the CDI accurately and consistently detects drought earlier than current warning systems. In order to better understand the behavior of individual indices and the potential for earlier drought detection, the team also conducted a time-lag analysis. The team found that VCI responds to drought, on average, one month later than most other indices included in the CDI, suggesting that incorporating additional indices could improve early drought warning systems in Kenya.

Food Security & Agriculture↗