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At least 145 records · Page 8

Significant Effective Radiative Forcing of Stratospheric Wildfire Smoke

Abstract The radiative forcing (RF) of volcanic sulfate is well quantified. However, the RF of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) smoke with absorbing carbonaceous aerosols has not been considered in climate assessment reports. With the Community Earth System Model, we studied two record‐breaking wildfire events, the 2017 Pacific Northwest Event (PNE) and the 2019–2020 Australian New Year event (ANY), that perturbed stratospheric chemistry and the earth's radiation budget. We calculated a global annual‐mean effective RF (ERF) of −0.04 ± 0.02 and −0.17 ± 0.02 W/m 2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for PNE and ANY, respectively. The complexity of longwave RF led to an uncertainty of about 50% in the ERF at the TOA among climate models. We found that modeled ERF from wildfire smoke was 70%–270% more negative than the ERF of mass‐equivalent sulfate aerosol, highlighting its important role in the climate radiative budget.

Liu, Cheng‐Cheng↗

Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP

High-resolution ice core records from coastal Antarctica are particularly useful to inform our understanding of environmental changes and their drivers. Here, we present a decadally resolved record of sea-salt sodium (a proxy for open-ocean area) and non-sea salt calcium (a proxy for continental dust) from the well-dated Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) core, focusing on the time period between 40–26 ka BP. The RICE dust record exhibits an abrupt shift towards a higher mean dust concentration at 32 ka BP. Investigating existing ice-core records, we find this shift is a prominent feature across Antarctica. We propose that this shift is linked to an equatorward displacement of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Subsequent to the wind shift, data suggest a weakening of Southern Ocean upwelling and a decline of atmospheric CO 2 to lower glacial values, hence making this shift an important glacial climate event with potentially important insights for future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Historical Extreme Weather Event Impacts

Understanding how past extreme weather events have affected a site is an integral part of site-level resilience planning. Energy and water resilience planning has been a key priority for the federal government for many years and agencies look to develop processes for identifying and addressing critical resilience gaps at their facilities and across their sites. The purpose of this information paper is to help inform how organizations could begin structuring a comprehensive process for recording the impacts of extreme weather events in order to facilitate climate vulnerability assessments, and thus, resilience planning. The paper highlights current limitations for developing event history assessments and suggests a framework for more consistently capturing key data points.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales where their impacts are most prominent. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 50,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with observations for spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale distributions of TC translation speeds, lifetime maximum intensities and intensification rates. Also, spatial variations in coastal frequency and precipitation for landfalling TCs are well-reproduced in RAFT. In summary, the synthetic TC database based on RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for robust assessment of TC wind and rainfall risk for the US coastal regions and other areas affected by Atlantic TCs.

Xu, Wenwei↗

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗

Microstructure and Composition of Passivating Interfaces in Silicon Heterojunction Solar Modules Weathered in Different Climates

Sanyo/Panasonic patented silicon heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) solar cells in the 1990's, which demonstrated world record photovoltaic (PV) efficiency around 2014 and inspired the newer generations of silicon heterojunction technology (SHJ) as well as the current world record back-contact PV cell designs. The high-quality passivation strategy, utilizing ultra-thin layers of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H), leads to high voltages and long carrier lifetimes, but these qualities may degrade over time as the modules operate outdoors. Here, we investigate local microstructure and composition at the interface layers of cells from HIT modules weathered in a hot, humid climate (Florida, USA) and temperate climate (Colorado, USA) for 10 years. We employ a comprehensive set of high-resolution electron microscopy imaging and spectroscopy to directly resolve structure and composition in these cells down to the nanoscale. We show features such as alignment of the In2O3 transparent conducting oxide and a-Si:H layers on the textured c-Si facets, interfacial oxidation at the a-Si:H/c-Si and In2O3/a-Si:H interfaces, and twinned c-Si resulting from epitaxial growth into the a-Si:H layer. Our results raise potential degradation mechanisms in these outdoor-weathered modules, but the root cause of electrical loss remains uncertain due to the very small changes in aged samples. This study shows that many atomic scale features at the In2O3/a-Si:H/c-Si interfaces are surprisingly robust, and the electrical losses with aging may either be attributed to other pathways or be very sensitive to the subtle chemical and microstructural features observed here.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dates and rates of loess deposition and soil formation on the Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA

Loess-paleosol sequences in eolian deposits on the Snake River Plain, Idaho, western United States, preserve records of late Pleistocene to Holocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we examine climate-driven changes in the timing and rate of loess accretion, soil formation, and pedogenic carbonate accumulation in the eastern and central Snake River Plain. High rates of loess deposition often correspond with dry, cold, and windy conditions and/or high sediment supply, while soil formation indicates landscape stability. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of four loess-soil sequences provides a record of the timing of loess deposition, and radiocarbon dating ( 14 C) of soil inorganic carbon provides ages for soil formation and pedogenic carbonate precipitation. On the central Snake River Plain, marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 is marked by loess deposition between ca. 50 ka and 33 ka, and pedogenic carbonate accumulation between ca. 42 ka calibrated years before present (cal. B.P.) and 31 ka cal. B.P. During MIS 2, loess deposition between ca. 21 ka and 15 ka is contemporaneous with pedogenic carbonate precipitation. MIS 2 is characterized by diffuse pedogenic carbonate formation and rapid loess accumulation. Both the eastern and central Snake River Plain study sites experienced high rates of loess deposition during MIS 2; however, the eastern Snake River Plain had almost three times faster rates of loess accumulation (0.56−0.63 m/k.y. from ca. 25 ka to 17 ka) as compared to the central Snake River Plain (0.18−0.26 m/k.y. from ca. 21 ka to 15 ka). During MIS 1, loess deposition on the central Snake River Plain ca. 11 ka was coincident with pedogenic carbonate formation ca. 10 ka cal. B.P. MIS 3 and MIS 1 are characterized by A horizons and well-developed Bk horizons, indicating soil stability and lower rates of loess accumulation during these intervals. Finally, this study highlights the role of late Quaternary−scale climatic variability on rates and amounts of soil inorganic carbon storage.

Geosciences↗

U-Pb zircon age constraints on the earliest eruptions of the Deccan Large Igneous Province, Malwa Plateau, India

Climate instability driven by emission of volatiles during emplacement of large igneous provinces (LIPs) is frequently invoked as a potential cause of mass extinctions. However, documenting this process in the geologic record requires a holistic understanding of eruption rates, the location of eruptive centers, and potential sources of climate-changing volatiles. We present new chemical abrasion–isotope dilution–thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb zircon geochronology from Malwa Plateau basalts on the northern margin of the Deccan LIP, India. These basalts have been previously interpreted as either an extension of the province's main volcanic stratigraphy or as an independent eruptive center active up to millions of years prior to the main eruptive phase. Our data instead demonstrate that the lower Malwa Plateau basalts are temporally correlative with the first pulse of Deccan volcanism and provide new constraints on its initiation and duration. Paleomagnetic data further indicate that upper Malwa Plateau basalts may be age-equivalent to the second, third, and fourth pulses of Deccan volcanism. The relative thicknesses of age-equivalent packages of basalt are consistent with eruption of the Deccan LIP from a southward-migrating eruptive center. The first eruptive pulse is coeval with a ~200 kyr Late Maastrichtian warming event preserved globally in contemporaneous stratigraphic sections. We propose that the first pulse of Deccan magmatism was more voluminous in the north, where it erupted through organic-rich sedimentary rocks of the Narmada-Tapti rift basin. Thermal metamorphism of these sediments could have been a source of sufficient CO 2 to drive the Late Maastrichtian warming event, which if true would reconcile the apparent dampened warming signals associated with later Deccan eruptive pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Role of Atmospheric Rivers on Groundwater: Lessons Learned From an Extreme Wet Year

Abstract In the coastal regions of the western United States, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are associated with the largest precipitation generating storms and contribute up to half of annual precipitation, but the impact of ARs on the integrated hydrologic cycle, specifically on groundwater storage and hydrodynamics, is largely unknown. To better explore the hydrologic behavior of AR versus non‐AR event precipitation, we present a novel combination of two water tracking methods (one in the atmosphere and one in the subsurface) to explicitly track the full lifecycle of water parcels generated by ARs. Simulations of northern California's Cosumnes River watershed during the record wet 2017 water year are performed via the coupling of a high‐resolution regional climate model and a land surface‐groundwater model accounting for lateral groundwater flow. Despite ARs contributing more precipitation than non‐AR storms, we find less AR water is preferentially stored in aquifers by year end. Fractionally, ARs result in 300% less snow derived groundwater‐recharged compared to non‐AR precipitation. Rain‐on‐snow (RoS) plays an important role in AR‐driven discharge, where over 50% of total discharge from ARs snow is from RoS events. Finally, despite record‐breaking annual precipitation, simulated groundwater depletion occurs by year end due to estimates of groundwater pumping activities. The results from these simulations serve as a partial analogue of future hydrologic conditions where ARs are expected to intensify and provide a greater fraction of annual precipitation due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Thaw Rate Doubles When Accounting for Subsidence in a Permafrost Warming Experiment

Permafrost soils, which are perennially frozen soils found throughout cold regions, contain vast quantities of carbon and ice. When permafrost thaws, carbon can be lost to the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. This means it is important to track permafrost thaw, which is often done using active layer thickness, or the depth of the seasonally thawed surface layer of soil. However, ice volume can be lost from thawing permafrost, causing the soil surface to drop. Conventional measurements do not account for this surface drop, and the rate of thaw could therefore be underestimated. We found that experimentally warmed soils dropped at a rate of 6 cm year-1, mostly due to loss of ice volume and also due to the loss of soil mass. When accounting for the change in soil surface height over time, the full depth of permafrost thaw was 49% greater. The increased depth of thaw resulted in more than twice as much carbon being thawed as was estimated with standard methods that did not account for subsidence. These findings suggest that permafrost is thawing more quickly than long-term records indicate and that this could result in additional carbon release contributing to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Middle and Late-Holocene coastal environments of far Southeastern Russia as inferred from palynological and diatom data

Existing discontinuous palynological records from coastal and river valley exposures, with varying quality of radiocarbon control, suggested that the regional Holocene climate in southern areas of the Russian Far East was characterized by as many as 10 fluctuations in temperature and/or precipitation. In this study, palynological data from Zerkalnoye Lake, located on the western coast of the Sea of Japan, indicate a gradual decline in temperature through the Middle and Late-Holocene with a Holocene thermal maximum between 8800 and 5500 cal yr BP. Three wetter than present intervals, marked by an increase in Pinus koraiensis, occurred c. 3600–3500 cal yr BP, 2340–2050 cal yr BP, and 1830–1800 cal yr BP. The Zerkalnoye record shows the dominance of Quercus-broadleaf forests during the Middle and Early Holocene, although Quercus shows a gradual decrease as climate cooled during this interval. Diatom analysis of the Zerkalnoye sediments documents that the site was a shallow bay or coastal lagoon until c. 3540 cal yr BP. After that time, a freshwater lake was established, which had variable marine influences probably caused by sea level changes following deglaciation. The diatom data indicate a cool water interval between 2900 and 2580 cal yr BP, also noted in other sites in the region. Changes in the basin’s depositional environment do not affect the palynological record, indicating such sites can provide reliable paleovegetational and paleoclimatic records. In conclusion, the discrepancies of the various regional paleoclimatic scenarios indicate the need for the further collection of continuous records from coastal to alpine zones in this region of northeastern Asia.

Environmental sciences↗

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap (Second Edition)

The first ICEF Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap was released in December 2023. Since that time, attention to artificial intelligence (AI) has continued to grow at a rapid pace. Tens of billions of dollars have poured into AI projects, policymakers around the world have considered new AI policies, and OpenAI reports that each month more than 200 million people now use ChatGPT. Signs of a changing climate continue to grow as well. Based on global average temperatures, July 22, 2024 was the warmest day ever recorded; 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded; and the 10 warmest years on record are the past 10 years. Yet global emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb. Can AI help cut emissions of greenhouse gases? This Roadmap explores that question. In this second edition of the Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap, a team of 25 co-authors builds on last year’s roadmap—comprehensively updating all old chapters, adding six new chapters and offering 5–10 specific, actionable recommendations in each chapter. Our goal is to provide a useful resource for experts and non-experts alike. In Part I of this Roadmap, we provide brief introductions to both AI and climate change. In Part II, we explore eight sectors in which AI is helping respond to climate change and could do much more. In Part III, we explore crosscutting issues. We close with findings and recommendations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Abstract Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier—fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

A database of global storm surge reconstructions

Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗