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At least 145 records · Page 8

Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Inventory Sensitivity Case

The Plateau to River (P2R) Model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in Washington State. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to describe an inventory sensitivity case of the CA base case. The inventory sensitivity case implements a change in the activity contribution from the vadose zone in the A Trenches Area model (for tritium (H-3) and iodine-129 (I-129)), BC Cribs and Trenches model (for I-129 and technetium-99 (Tc-99)), and the PUREX Area model (for H-3 and I-129). All other simulated inventories are identical to the CA base case. The simulation of F&T of contaminants reported in this case will support dose predictions as part of the Hanford Site CA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Ultrafast Closure Valve Use Cases

The purpose of this report is to document several use cases of the Ultra-Fast Closure Valve System (UCVS) at the Joint Actinide Shock Physics Experimental Research (JASPER) facility. The goal is to clearly identify the use cases so that an explosive hazard classification may be assigned.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Liquid–Liquid Equilibrium Prediction in Fast Pyrolysis Bio-Oil Systems: A Framework for Incorporating Bio-Oil Complexity

The study of mixtures of bio-oil, water and organic solvents in different proportions can serve as a cost-effective analysis of its content due to the formation of immiscible phases. This manuscript attempts to replicate experimentally determined partition coefficients (K OW ) of relevant species present in fast pyrolysis bio-oil (FPBO). A commercial flowsheeting simulator with surrogate bio-oil model representation is used. Concurrently, pyrolytic lignins in FPBO (‘pyrolignin’) do not have an agreed-upon structural representation, and the literature is ripe with wide variations of said representations. Thus, during the description of FPBO, this pyrolignin fraction was modeled using 20 possible structures (phenolic dimers to tetramers), with the goal of determining the structures for which the experimental data are best described. Two cases were considered: Case 1 normalized the reported experimental mass balance, while Case 2 included the unreported fraction in the mass balance to the total pyroligin. Please, add here a comment on the prediction of the Water oil equilibrium. The best KOW predictions for levoglucosan (LVG) were obtained when the system was modeled with no pyrolignin, presenting an MRE under 10% for both systems WO and BO. Among the possible structures, D2 (dimer), F1 (trimer) and I1, and I3 (tetramers) presented MRE ≤ 13% for both cases.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Recharge Sensitivity Case

The Plateau-to-River (P2R) model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to describe a recharge sensitivity case of the CA base case. The recharge sensitivity case implements a change in the activity contribution from the vadose zone in the A Trenches Area model (for tritium [H-3] and iodine-129 [I-129]), BC Cribs and Trenches model (for I-129 and technetium-99 [Tc-99]), or the Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Area model (for H-3 and I-129). All other simulated inventories are identical to the CA base case. The simulation of fate and transport of contaminants reported in this case will support dose predictions as part of the updated Hanford Site CA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis Comparisons on Geologic Case Studies: An International Collaboration

Over the past four years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. To examine ideas and have applicable test cases for comparison purposes, we have developed multiple case studies. Four of these case studies are presented in this report: the GRS clay case, the SNL shale case, the Dessel case, and the IBRAE groundwater case. We present the different sensitivity analysis methods investigated by various groups, the results obtained by different groups and different implementations, and summarize our findings.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Closeout Report of BNL LDRD 23-050 A Second EIC Detector: Physics Case and Conceptual Design

This document is the closeout report for LDRD 23-050, a type-A LDRD project awarded in FY2022 under the title “ A Second EIC Detector: Physics Case and Conceptual Design ”. The project was motivated by the strong interest within the EIC community in a second general-purpose detector and interaction region, and by the recognition that such a detector is essential to fully exploit the scientific potential of the EIC over its multi-decade lifetime. The key goals of the LDRD were to (i) strengthen the case for a second EIC detector, building on the arguments already articulated in the community Yellow Report, (ii) provide a realistic detector concept that is complementary to the current project detector, ePIC, in terms of physics reach, precision, and control of systematics, and (iii) broaden the overall physics program of the EIC facility. Since a possible second detector is expected to be realized with a delay of several years relative to the first detector, the project explicitly aimed at identifying technologies that are not yet sufficiently mature for ePIC but could be deployed on the later timescale of a second detector, thereby providing genuine complementarity and room for innovation. LDRD 23-050 provided support for two postdoctoral researchers and partial support for several BNL staff members, and the effort ramped up in mid-2023. Work was carried out in close collaboration with colleagues from the EIC project, the Cold QCD and STAR groups at BNL, and with substantial input from members of the EIC User Group and the ePIC Collaboration as reflected in the author list. Over the period from October 2022 through September 2025, this team developed and refined a physics program tailored to a second detector, translated the resulting physics requirements into detector-level performance targets, and explored multiple conceptual detector layouts capable of meeting these targets within the constraints of the second interaction region. The expected outcome, as stated in the original proposal, was a document detailing the physics potential and requirements of a second EIC detector, accompanied by a comprehensive conceptual detector design and an outline of the remaining R&D needed to bring the relevant technologies to maturity. The present report summarizes the progress that has been achieved toward these goals. It consolidates the physics studies, detector concepts, and technology assessments developed under this LDRD and places them in the broader context of worldwide detector R&D. While the evolving priorities of the EIC project and the substantial community effort required to design and construct ePIC naturally limited the scope of EIC-wide activities toward a second detector during this period, the work documented here is intended to provide a foundation and a point of reference for future efforts. Whatever form a second EIC detector may ultimately take, we hope that this report will serve as a useful guide for colleagues who continue to advance this program in the near- and mid-term future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Direct Air Capture Case Studies: Sorbent System (Rev. 1)

In 2022, the National Energy Technology Laboratory published a techno-economic assessment (TEA) examining the performance and cost of a generic solid sorbent-based direct air capture (DAC) system, “Direct Air Capture Case Studies: Sorbent System”. Revision 1 of this report builds on the previous effort by updating assumptions to reflect the evolving industry and recent developments in the DAC research and development (R&D) portfolio. Revision 1 of the report also expands the case list to examine a variety of sorbent DAC system configurations. The objective of this series is to present transparent and independent TEAs that can serve as a guideline for sorbent DAC TEA development and highlight potential avenues for cost reductions that can inform R&D. The sorbent considered is not reflective of any one material type; rather, it represents an approximate average of reported material performance in the literature. The base cases presented in this series do not represent optimized systems due to the nascence of the technology and lack of publicly available information. The base cases serve as a reference for informative sensitivity analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active Thermochemical Tables: Enthalpies of Formation of Bromo- and Iodo-Methanes, Ethenes and Ethynes

Here, the thermochemistry of halocarbon species containing iodine and bromine is examined through an extensive interplay between new Feller–Peterson–Dixon (FPD) style composite methods and a detailed analysis of all available experimental and theoretical determinations using the thermochemical network that underlies the Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT). From the computational viewpoint, a slower convergence of the components of composite thermochemistry methods is observed relative to species that solely contain first row elements, leading to a higher computational expense for achieving comparable levels of accuracy. Potential systematic sources of computational uncertainty are investigated, and, not surprisingly, spin-orbit coupling is found to be a critical component, particularly for iodine containing molecular species. The ATcT analysis of available experimental and theoretical determinations indicates that prior theoretical determinations have significantly larger uncertainties than originally reported, particularly in cases where molecular spin-orbit effects were ignored. Accurate and reliable heats of formation are reported for 38 halogen containing systems, based on combining the current computations with previous experimental and theoretical work via the ATcT approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nu Tools: Exploring Practical Roles for Neutrinos in Nuclear Energy and Security

For decades, physicists have used neutrinos from nuclear reactors to advance basic science. These pursuits have inspired many ideas for application of neutrino detectors in nuclear energy and security. While developments in neutrino detectors are now making some of these ideas technically feasible, their value in the context of real needs and constraints has been unclear. This report seeks to help focus the picture of where neutrino technology may find practical roles in nuclear energy and security. This report is the final product of the Nu Tools study, commissioned in 2019 by the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D). The study was conducted over two years by a group of neutrino physicists and nuclear engineers. A central theme of the study and this report is that useful application of neutrinos will depend not only on advancing physics and technology but also on understanding the needs and constraints of potential end-users. The Study Approach emphasized broad end-user engagement. The major effort, undertaken from May to December 2020, was a series of engagements with the wider nuclear energy and security communities. Interviews with 41 experts revealed points of common understanding, which this report captures in three Cross-Cutting Findings, a Framework for Evaluating Utility, and seven Use Case Findings. The report concludes with two Recommendations. The findings and recommendations are summarized below. The respective ordering within each category does not represent a prioritization or implied value judgement.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Beryllium disease among construction trade workers at Department of Energy nuclear sites: A follow‐up

Abstract Background Construction workers at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities are screened to identify DOE‐related occupational illnesses, including beryllium sensitization (BeS) and chronic beryllium disease (CBD). The study objectives were to estimate beryllium disease risks and the CBD claims acceptance rate in the energy workers' benefits program. Methods Workers diagnosed with BeS via beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test (BeLPT) included in screening examinations were interviewed about subsequent diagnosis of CBD. We estimated the proportion who developed CBD based on the ratio of CBD cases, based on self‐reported compensation claim status, to all workers with BeS interviewed. We used stratified analyses to explore trends in disease frequency by age, race, sex, DOE employment duration, site, trade group, and cigarette smoking history. Results Between 1998 and 2020, 21,854 workers received a BeLPT; 262 (1.20%) had BeS (two abnormals or one abnormal plus one borderline test); 212 (0.97%) had a single abnormal BeLPT. Of 177 BeS workers interviewed, 35 (19.8%) reported an accepted CBD compensation claim. The claims acceptance rate among BeS workers increased with years of DOE employment, from 8.4% with <5 years to 33.3% for >25 or more years. Five of 68 interviewed workers with a single positive BeLPT reported CBD claim acceptance; an additional CBD case was confirmed by chart review (8.8%). Conclusions Years of DOE work predict the risk of developing CBD among those sensitized and getting a claim for CBD accepted. Ongoing surveillance and increased awareness of the risk of beryllium exposure and CBD as an occupational disease among construction workers are needed.

Cloeren, Marianne↗

Policies to Decarbonize District Heating: International Best Practices

This report analyzes and discusses best practices within DH systems throughout many countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Using case studies, the report outlines findings of how DH systems can impact CO 2 emission reductions and energy efficiency. These findings can be used by national policymakers and municipalities in Ukraine to illustrate the impacts from increasing connections to DH systems, and decarbonizing DH systems, on country’s emission reduction and energy efficiency goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Error Analysis on Numerical Integration Algorithms in a Hypoelasticity Framework

This report determines local truncation errors for common stress integration algorithms used in explicit finite element codes with hypoelastic material models. The hypoelastic integration algorithms in question utilize an operator splitting procedure in a rotation neutralized configuration, where the stress response is determined from de- coupling the total deformation into rotational and strain dependent components. This document analyzes the error in evolving the stress given a one-step time increment Δt and compares the errors associated with both the rotational and strain components of the operator splitting method. A slight modification to a traditional algorithm is proposed and studied, where the rate of deformation is appropriately rotated from the midstep configuration at t n+1/2 to the end step configuration at t n+1 before the constitutive evaluation. The proposed modification either completely eliminates the error associated with the rotation rate or is of the same order of magnitude as the original algorithm for the three test cases considered in this report. These cases consist of an unaxial stretch with a constant true strain rate with a rigid body rotation, an uniaxial stretch with a constant engineering strain rate with a rigid body rotation, and a simple shear deformation. All three cases are compared to a closed form solution, and in almost every test case the alternative algorithm yields the most accurate one-step local truncation error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tariff Setting in the District Heating Sector: Recommendations Based on International Experience

Ukraine’s district heating (DH) system is an essential resource for the country and has the potential to provide efficient, local, and renewable energy to a large share of the population. However, inefficient regulation and management have caused the sector to experience a vicious cycle of financial, operational, and technological problems. Overcoming these challenges and building a sustainable DH system requires comprehensive reforms, which could attract significant investment, improve the quality of services, and increase the efficiency of DH. One of the key elements of a comprehensive reform program should be a comprehensive reform of the tariff system. The purpose of this report is to provide analysis of European models for tariff regulation and recommendations for reforms to Ukraine’s DH tariff system. The report presents several case studies from European countries, followed by analysis of the current tariff system in Ukraine and barriers to effective regulation. Based on these findings, the report proposes actions Ukraine could take to improve the tariff regulatory system and promote a sustainable DH sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

ASME Code Revisions to Incorporate 316H and Alloy 617 Viscoplastic Constitutive Models to Section III, Division 5 and Code Case N-898

This report provides a final status update on work to develop and implement two new constitutive models for 316H stainless steel and the Ni-based Alloy 617 in Nonmandatory Appendix Z to the Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code rules covering the design and construction of Class A high temperature nuclear reactor components. This report summarizes the objections of the overall project and provides the final versions of the constitutive models proposed for incorporation into the ASME Code. The report also provides an update on the balloting status at ASME of the two proposed constitutive models. As of the time of writing (July 2022) the models are on-track to be approved by ASME after the August 2022 Code Week. If so, this will mean the 316H model will be published in the 2023 edition of the Code and the A617 model available as part of a revised Code Case immediately

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Initial Scoping Efforts for a Plant-Wide Digital Infrastructure Modernization Business Case Study

This research report describes the preparatory efforts to perform a BCA on an expanded set of digital upgrades envisioned for implementation at the Luminant?s Comanche Peak nuclear plant. It captures efforts to scope the digital upgrade effort to enable performance of the BCA. The final BCA will be the subject of a subsequent report. LWRS pilot research in this area is intended to enable this effort and to provide a roadmap to others to follow. INL appreciates the Luminant?s participation in this research.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗