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Overview presentation summarizing computational risk assessment/risk management tools and recommended practices developed by the U.S. DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership.
This report documents a risk assessment of CO 2 containment loss and induced shear failure due to geologic carbon storage at the Wabash CarbonSAFE site. The operator, Wabash Valley Resources, has proposed adapting the onsite integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) facilities to produce hydrogen and injecting the byproduct CO 2 stream into the subsurface Potosi dolomite formation. The purpose of this study is to assess (1) CO 2 sequestration performance relative to the CarbonSAFE goals of storing 50 Mt over 30 years, (2) the risk of containment loss due to leakage along a wellbore and into an overlying aquifer, and (3) the state of stress and risk of reactivating existing fractures. This study relied upon the initial site characterization work performed by the Illinois State Geologic Survey (ISGS) along with analogue data collected from other carbon sequestration projects in the region.
Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.
This presentation demonstrates a spatial analysis workflow to assess data availability for the many components of geologic carbon storage technical viability. The workflow relies upon a knowledge-data framework that links the different components of GCS technical viability to the data types needed for evaluation. Using this contextual information, a combination of data science methods (e.g., natural language processing) and spatial analyses are applied to identify areas where sufficient data exists for a given component. The results are aggregated into maps illustrating data density and spatial gaps across all technical viability factors and data categories, as well as the individual component and category level for a more nuanced understanding. Presented at the FECM NETL Carbon Management Program Review Meeting 2024.
Carbon capture and biochemical storage are some of the primary drivers of photosynthetic yield and productivity. To elucidate the mechanisms governing carbon allocation, we designed a photosynthetic light response test system for genetic and metabolic carbon assimilation tracking, using microalgae as simplified plant models. The systems biology mapping of high light-responsive photophysiology and carbon utilization dynamics between two variants of the same Picochlorum celeri species, TG1 and TG2 elucidated metabolic bottlenecks and transport rates of intermediates using instationary 13 C-fluxomics. Simultaneous global gene expression dynamics showed 73% of the annotated genes responding within one hour, elucidating a singular, diel-responsive transcription factor, closely related to the CCA1/LHY clock genes in plants, with significantly altered expression in TG2. Transgenic P. celeri TG1 cells expressing the TG2 CCA1/LHY gene, showed 15% increase in growth rates and 25% increase in storage carbohydrate content, supporting a coordinating regulatory function for a single transcription factor.
This presentation demonstrates a spatial analysis workflow to assess data availability for the many components of geologic carbon storage technical viability. The workflow relies upon a knowledge-data framework that links the different components of GCS technical viability to the data types needed for evaluation. Using this contextual information, a combination of data science methods (e.g., natural language processing) and spatial analyses are applied to identify areas where sufficient data exists for a given component. The results are aggregated into maps illustrating data density and spatial gaps across all technical viability factors and data categories, as well as the individual component and category level for a more nuanced understanding. Presented at the Geological Society of America Connects 2024 Annual Meeting in Anaheim, California, 22-25 September 2024.
Fast forecasting of the reservoir pressure distribution during geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from few wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynamic reservoir pressure. Employing an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates three-dimensional (3D) geologic properties and predicts reservoir pressure with quantified uncertainties. We use a synthetic commercial-scale GCS model with bimodally distributed permeability and porosity to demonstrate the efficacy of the workflow. A two-step CNN-PCA approach is employed to parameterize the bimodal fields. The computational efficiency of the workflow is boosted by two residual U-Net based surrogate models for surface displacement and reservoir pressure predictions, respectively. The workflow can complete data assimilation and reservoir pressure forecasting in half an hour on a personal computer.
Abstract It is estimated that carbon emissions should reach net-zero by 2050 to meet important climate targets. Carbon capture is likely necessary to reach these targets, requiring a long-term storage solution such as geological carbon sequestration. However, as with any subsurface activity, leakage can occur, potentially impacting groundwater quality near the storage site. Rapid detection is essential to mitigate damage to this resource. Since CO 2 will acidify groundwater, the concentrations of acid soluble minerals and associated cations will increase. Thus, an in-situ, real-time element analysis system based on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is under development to monitor these elements. The system splits the traditional LIBS system into a miniature, all-optical sensor head built around a passively Q-switch laser fiber coupled to a control unit. Previous work has validated the LIBS technique for use at high pressure as well as the split system design. In this work, a fieldable prototype sensor is developed and tested in an onsite monitoring well where trace elements concentrations (approx. 0–3 ppm) were tracked over 20 days. These concentrations varied in response to local rainfall, diluting with increased rain, demonstrating the ability of a LIBS-based sensor to track trace elements under real-world conditions.
This report summarizes the workplan, technical progress, and high-level findings for the Polk Carbon Storage Complex (PCSC) CarbonSAFE Phase III project. The project was designed to advance a commercial-scale geologic CO 2 storage by drilling and completing two characterization wells to strengthen an already-submitted Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permit application, acquiring new subsurface data, advancing National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements, progressing CO 2 transportation engineering, and developing commercial and community engagement frameworks.
This work presents a detailed supercritical CO 2 storage resource estimation for the stacked basalt reservoirs in the Grande Ronde Basalt of the Columbia River Basalt Group in eastern Washington and Oregon. The assessment aims to derisk the commercialization potential of geologic carbon storage in basalt by leveraging both structural and mineralization trapping of CO 2 in basalt. The structural closures formed by anticlinal ridges and synclinal valleys in Yakima Fold Belt are excellent physical traps to accommodate injected supercritical CO 2 . Rigorous hydraulic testing, well logs and simulation results from the Wallula Basalt Pilot #1 well showed the occurrence of 17 suitable permeable injection zones (up to 2,496 mD) intercalated with dense seals (~2.6E-10 mD) in the Grand Ronde Basalt. In addition, geochemical studies showed fast reactions between supercritical CO 2 and dissolved basalt minerals to form stable carbonates. In conclusion, our calculation indicates up to 40 gigatons (P90) of mineralization storage resources exist in the Grande Ronde Basalt reservoirs.
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is an important pathway for meeting climate mitigation goals. While the economic viability of CCUS is well understood, previous studies do not evaluate the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Permian Basin specifically regarding the new Section 45Q tax credits. We developed a technoeconomic analysis method, evaluated the economic feasibility of CCS at the acid gas injection (AGI) wells, and assessed the implication of Section 45Q tax credits for CCS at the AGIs. We find that the compressors, well depth, and the permit and monitoring costs drive the facility costs. Compressors are the predominant contributors to capital and operating expenditure driving the levelized cost of CO 2 storage. Strategic cost reduction measures identified include 1) sourcing of low-cost electricity and 2) optimizing operational efficiency in well operations. In evaluating the impact of the tax credits on CCS projects, facility scale proved decisive. We found that facilities with an annual injection rate exceeding 10,000 MT storage capacity demonstrate economic viability contingent upon the procurement of inputs at the least cost. The new construction of AGI wells were found to be economically viable at a storage capacity of 100,000 MT. The basin is heavily focused on CCUS (tax credit – $\$$65/MT CO 2 ), which overshadows CCS ($\$$85/MT CO 2 ) opportunities. Balancing the dual objectives of CCS and CCUS requires planning and coordination for optimal resource and pore space utilization to attain the basin's decarbonization potential. We also found that CCS on AGI is a lower cost CCS option as compared to CCS on other industries.
The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.
Conference presentation at American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Annual Meeting, San Diego, California, October 27–31, 2024. We presented a high-level overview of many novel and sustainable carbon storage monitoring methods that are at various stages of planning or demonstration to accelerate the deployment of CCS technologies at future CCS sites across the United States. Our work impacts the general CCS industry by providing novel and more sustainable methods for tracking CO 2 plume migration and performing assurance monitoring. Our work primarily benefits three parties: 1) CCS community members through knowledge sharing of lessons learned; 2) CCS operators through commercialization of additional methods, including improvements on workflows and simplification of fieldwork; and 3) stakeholders of CCS projects through implementation of low-impact and more autonomous monitoring solutions.
R code associated with "Assessing the Effect of a Deep-Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights from a Multi-Site US Study" These scripts can be used to analyze the accompanying dataset: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16620529. (1) resampling_functions.R : Creates functions for resampling data for nonparametric bootstrapping (2) bootstrap_depth_profiles.R : Applies resampling functions to the dataset (3) gapfill_masscalcs.R : Prepares data for equivalent mass calculations (4) get_14C_EM.R : Applies soilR to obtain the 14C end member for mixing model calculations (5) mass_aggregate.R : Performs equivalent mass and mass weighted averaging calculations.
Conference presentation at International Meeting for Applied Geoscience & Energy (IMAGE), Houston, Texas, August 25–28, 2025. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) is leading applied research on electromagnetic (EM) monitoring methods at an active carbon storage site in North Dakota. Injection operations at the site began in February 2024, with a permitted injection rate of up to 2.7 million tonnes of CO 2 annually using six injection wells. CO 2 is captured on-site and injected into the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer located at a depth of approximately 1800 meters. The EERC led acquisition of multiple active- and passive-source EM techniques between August and October of 2024 to provide a thorough understanding of the resistivity profile at the site.
This project introduces an advanced deep learning (DL)-based surrogate modeling approach to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of large-scale geological carbon storage (GCS) simulations. Using the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset as training data, the study employs a residual U-Net architecture to predict critical state variables such as pressure and CO₂ saturation, as well as CO₂ plume migration. By incorporating key geological parameters (e.g., porosity, permeability, and rock facies) and physics-informed inputs like the diffusive time of flight and time step, the DL model effectively reduces computational complexity while maintaining robust physical constraints. Compared to traditional simulators like Eclipse, the DL model achieves remarkable accuracy, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.57 psi for pressure and 0.007 for saturation, and dramatically reduces computational time from hours to just 69.9 seconds for 50-step simulations. These results demonstrate the potential of innovative DL methodologies to improve the predictivity and operational efficiency of GCS simulations, providing a reliable foundation for decision-making in CCS operations. Supported by the SMART initiative, this project underscores the success of leveraging computational innovations to advance CCS technologies.
In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.
ABSTRACT Cover crops, a promising strategy to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in croplands and mitigate climate change, have typically been shown to benefit soil carbon (C) storage from increased plant C inputs. However, input‐driven C benefits may be augmented by the reduction of C outputs induced by cover crops, a process that has been tested by individual studies but has not yet been synthesized. Here we quantified the impact of cover crops on organic C loss via soil erosion (SOC erosion) and revealed the geographical variability at the global scale. We analyzed the field data from 152 paired control and cover crop treatments from 57 published studies worldwide using meta‐analysis and machine learning. The meta‐analysis results showed that cover crops widely reduced SOC erosion by an average of 68% on an annual basis, while they increased SOC stock by 14% (0–15 cm). The absolute SOC erosion reduction ranged from 0 to 18.0 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 and showed no correlation with the SOC stock change that varied from −8.07 to 22.6 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 at 0–15 cm depth, indicating the latter more likely related to plant C inputs. The magnitude of SOC erosion reduction was dominantly determined by topographic slope. The global map generated by machine learning showed the relative effectiveness of SOC erosion reduction mainly occurred in temperate regions, including central Europe, central‐east China, and Southern South America. Our results highlight that cover crop‐induced erosion reduction can augment SOC stock to provide additive C benefits, especially in sloping and temperate croplands, for mitigating climate change.