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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2021 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPRs ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar - to - diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the caverns drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns .

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven offshore CO 2 saline storage assessment methodology

The world produces approximately 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases annually. This is measured in CO 2 -equivalents, and geologic CO 2 storage has the potential to advance decarbonization and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies to assess offshore carbon storage are needed to address resource, regulatory, and commercial needs. Although most efforts to assess storage resources focus on onshore criteria, offshore reservoirs offer significant storage potential and distinct development challenges. Potential advantages of offshore carbon storage include being further from human population centers and less potential to interact with groundwater. The U.S. Department of Energy's method for evaluating storage capacity in non-oil-bearing saline reservoirs has been enhanced to support assessments for offshore environments in the Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage methodology (OCSS). This methodology applies data-driven capabilities to estimate saline storage capacity while accounting for features specific to offshore reservoirs. Features include changes in CO 2 density and sedimentary differences that impact estimates of permanence and capacity. The Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage Calculator mechanizes OCSS to estimate storage capacity. This paper presents the methodology and estimates for 18 geologic domains in the Gulf of Mexico. Potential storage distributions, sensitivity analyses, and the incorporation of spatial data and tools to support safe site selection are also discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗
DOE OSTI2022

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2022 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of a vailable drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the s tructural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite - element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Evaluation of CO 2 Storage Potential in the Offshore Atlantic Lower Cretaceous Strata, Southeastern United States

The geological storage of CO 2 in the Earth’s subsurface has the potential to significantly offset greenhouse gas emissions for safe, economical, and acceptable public use. Due to legal advantages and vast resource capacity, offshore CO 2 storage provides an attractive alternative to onshore options. Although offshore Lower Cretaceous reservoirs have a vast expected storage capacity, there is a limited quantitative assessment of the offshore storage resource in the southeastern United States. This work is part of the Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment (SOSRA) project, which presents a high-quality potential geological repository for CO 2 in the Mid- and South Atlantic Planning Areas. This is the first comprehensive investigation and quantitative assessment of CO 2 storage potential for the Lower Cretaceous section of the outer continental shelf that includes the Southeast Georgia Embayment and most of the Blake Plateau. An interpretation of 200,000 km of legacy industrial 2D seismic reflection profiles and geophysical well logs (i.e., TRANSCO 1005-1-1, COST GE-1, and EXXON 564-1) were utilized to create structure and thickness maps for the potential reservoirs and seals. We identified and assessed three target reservoirs isolated by seals based on their effective porosity values. The CO 2 storage capacity of these reservoirs was theoretically calculated using the DOE-NETL equation for saline formations. The prospective storage resources are estimated between 450 and 4700 Mt of CO 2 , with an offshore geological efficiency factor of dolomite between 2% and 3.6% at the formation scale.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR’s ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. This report covers impacts on drawdown availability due to SPR operations during Calendar Year 2022. A cavern has an available drawdown if, after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a pillar-to-diameter ratio of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for oil sales, purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern’s drawdown capacity may be continued. A methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is reiterated. This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditures. A total of 222 million barrels of oil were released in calendar-year 2022. A nearly-equal amount of raw water was injected, resulting in an estimated 34 million barrels of cavern leaching. Twenty caverns have now expended a full drawdown. Cavern BC 18 has expended all its baseline available drawdowns, and has no drawdowns remaining. Cavern BM 103 has expended one of its two baseline drawdowns, and is now a single-drawdown cavern. All other caverns with an expenditure went from at-least-5 to at-least-4 remaining drawdowns.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of overtime phenotypic variation of yeasts in chronic vulvovaginal candidosis cases

Abstract Chronic vulvovaginal candidosis results either from reinfection or from the ability of Candida spp. to persist in the vulva and/or vagina. Persistence is usually associated with increased antifungal (mainly azoles) resistance rates, which can explain treatment failure, and/or increased expression of virulence factors by Candida spp. The aim of this study was to assess the mechanisms leading to Candida spp persistence, by studying sequential isolates from women with chronic vulvovaginal candidosis, focusing on strains genotypes, azole resistance, and ability to form biofilms along the period of clinical evaluation. The strains were identified at species level by automated analysis of biochemical profiles and molecular typing evaluated by polymorphic DNA analysis. The capacity to form biofilm was assessed with a microtiter plate assay. Fluconazole susceptibility was determined by the microdilution broth assay at both pH 7 (following the recommended guideline) and pH 4.5 (as representative of vaginal pH). We studied samples from 17 clinically recurrent cases. In 53% of the chronic cases there were two or more isolates that had a phylogenetic relationship while the remaining (47%) were caused by different species. In those cases where related strains were involved in recurrence, we verified an increase in MIC at pH 7 and also an increased capacity to form biofilms over time. Significant correlation between these two parameters was observed only in cases caused by C. glabrata, evidencing the importance of these two factors to enhance persistence in the vaginal mucosa for this particular species.

Faria-Gonçalves, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2025

HydroBio: Hydropower Capacity and Freshwater Biodiversity in Conterminous United States Sub-basins

This dataset summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin level throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). It contains descriptive information regarding each sub-basin (e.g., 8-digit hydrologic unit code identifier, name, states, and size) along with sub-basin-level summaries of: 1) existing hydropower capacity (MW), 2) potential nominal non-powered dam (NPD) capacity (MW), 3) potential capacity of new stream reach development (NSD) (MW), and 4) freshwater biodiversity, including the total richness of fish, crayfish, and mussels and metrics that account for how rare and threatened those species tend to be. Hydropower data were obtained from Oak Ridge National Laboratory data resources (Existing Hydropower Assets, Non-Powered Dam Technical Potential, and New Stream Reach Development). Freshwater biodiversity data were obtained from NatureServe. Sub-basin characteristic information was obtained from the United States Geological Survey. Additionally, long data that provide lists of unique elements within each sub-basin for each constituent data resource (e.g., NatureServe, Existing Hydropower Assets) are provided to enhance dataset utility for users. The dataset provides, for the first time, a national-level assessment of existing and potential hydropower capacity in the context of freshwater biodiversity and is a valuable resource for stakeholders tasked with providing affordable, reliable energy to the American public while maintaining or enhancing invaluable freshwater resources. The dataset contains six data files in comma separated (*.csv) format that are within a zipped file.

Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
NASA NTRS2005

Technical Consultation of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) Battery Charge Capacity Prediction

The purpose of the GSFC position paper is to identify critical HST milestone dates for continued science studies followed by the attachment of a re-entry module or a robotic servicing mission. The paper examines the viability of the HST with respect to the NiH2 continued battery charge capacity. In the course of the assessment, it was recognized that the HST battery thermal control system has an average heat dissipation limitation of 30 W per bay per orbit cycle. This thermal constraint will continue to govern options for battery capacity maintenance. In addition, the HST usage represents the longest exposure ofNiH2 batteries to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at the current level of Depth of Discharge (DOD). Finally, the current battery life is at the limit predicted by the manufacturer, Eaglepicher. Therefore, given these factors, the potential exists that the HST battery capacities could radically degrade at any point. Given this caveat on any life extrapolations, the conservative model proposed in the GSFC position paper was viewed by the NESC as having several technical assumptions such as limited utilization of flight battery capacity data, the susceptibility of the proposed prediction method to large variations when supplemented with additional information, and the failure to qualitatively or quantitatively assess life prediction sensitivities. The NESC conducted an independent evaluation of the supporting information and assumptions to generate the predictions for battery capacity loss and practicality of on-orbit battery conditioning.

Gentz, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Integrated Analysis of Airport Capacity and Environmental Constraints

LMI conducted an integrated analysis of airport capacity and environmental constraints. identifying and ranking the key factors limiting achievement of NextGen capacity goals. The primary metric used was projected throughput, which was estimated for the years 2015 and 2025 based on the unconstrained demand forecast from the Federal Aviation Administration, and planned improvements including those proposed in the NextGen plan. A set of 310 critical airports was identified.. collectively accounting for more than 99 percent of domestic air traffic volume; a one-off analytical approach was used to isolate the constraint being assessed. The study considered three capacity constraints (runway.. taxiway, and gate) and three environmental constraints (fuel, NO(x) emissions, and noise). For the ten busiest airports, runway and noise are the primary and secondary constraints in both 2015 and 2025. For the OEP 35 airports and overall for the remaining airports, the most binding constraint is noise. Six of the 10 busiest airports, will face runway constraints in 2025, and 95 will face gate constraints. Nearly every airport will be subject to constraints due to emissions and NOx. Runway and taxi constraints are more concentrated in the large airports: environmental constraints are present at almost every airport regardless of size.

Hasan, Shahab↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electric Access System Enhancement (EASE): Assessment of a Distributed Energy Resource Management System for Enabling Dynamic Hosting Capacity

The Electric Access System Enhancement (EASE) project demonstrated a scalable, interoperable, and cost-effective means of integrating high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). The control architecture developed leveraged a Distributed Energy Resource Management System, Distribution System Operator for transacting energy, and 3rd Party DER Aggregator platform. The project identified ways to enhance the customer interconnection process to the grid and improve access to information from DERs and optimize the usage of DERs to provide energy services in a simulated day-ahead shadow market while maintain grid reliability. By integrating these capabilities into a scalable system of systems, the DSO can effectively balance DER generation and customer demand on the distribution network. This capability allows the grid to host more DER than traditionally possible on wires alone. Hosting more DER has the added benefit of supplying increased demand growth, sometimes beyond the capacity limits of the distribution network itself. This is known as a dynamic hosting capacity, which could help utilities manage the forecasted growth in electricity demand as California switch to electric vehicles and appliances. This could help to establish energy storage and PV generation as a “pseudo firm” generation resource mix if managed appropriately and provide sufficient resource adequacy for distribution capacity upgrade deferrals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating National-Scale Wind Potential Using Spatially Explicit Turbine Layout Optimization

National renewable energy potential assessments play a broad and critical role in analysis of the clean energy transition by providing foundational estimates of developable clean resources. Common to all past wind potential assessments is an assumption that wraps the complexity of wind plant layout (arrangement of turbines) into a single metric known as capacity density, or rated power capacity per unit of land area. Quite often, a singular capacity density or rotor-diameter driven capacity density is used in wind potential assessments across broad geographies despite the complexities of local drivers. Here, we present a new wind technical potential assessment for the United States, leveraging a spatial optimization approach in lieu of the traditional uniform capacity density. The optimization approach is a spatially explicit method for determining the potential locations of individual wind turbines-taking into account the turbine configuration, plant economics and losses, wind resource, and siting considerations. Our approach accounts for the interactions between wind technology design, wind plant layout, and the vast array of regulatory, land use and infrastructure conflicts with wind development. Our results highlight the potential ability of larger turbines to enable increased wind capacity, up to a point, and increased generation when siting turbines in and around spatial constraints; moreover, they demonstrate and capture the LCOE benefit of relatively lower capacity densities and reduced wake losses when land is relatively abundant. These insights provide foundational knowledge for the wind sector as it develops and pursues future turbine models and as wind energy markets expand in zero-carbon futures. Further, when applied in capacity expansion models, supply curves developed by these methods can provide detailed local insights about where wind turbines might be deployed in and among known siting constraints for those regions where wind energy is determined to be economic, providing critical nuance to local decision-makers and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Roberts, J. Brent↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cost and Energy Metrics for Municipal Water Reuse

Municipal water reuse can contribute to a circular water economy in different contexts and with various treatment trains. This study synthesized information regarding the current technological and regulatory statuses of municipal reuse. It provides process-level information on cost and energy metrics for three potable reuse and one nonpotable reuse case studies using the new Water Techno-economic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform (WaterTAP3). WaterTAP3 enabled comparisons of cost and energy metrics for different treatment trains and for different alternative water sources consistently with a common platform. A carbon-based treatment train has both a lower calculated levelized cost of water (LCOW) ($0.40/m3) and electricity intensity (0.30 kWh/m3) than a reverse osmosis (RO)-based treatment train ($0.54/m3 and 0.84 kWh/m3). In comparing LCOW and energy intensity for water production from municipal reuse, brackish water, and seawater based on the largest facilities of each type in the United States, municipal reuse had a lower LCOW and electricity than seawater but higher values than for production from brackish water. For a small (2.0 million gallon per day) inland RO-based municipal reuse facility, WaterTAP3 evaluated different deep well injection and zero liquid discharge (ZLD) scenarios for management of RO concentrate. Adding ZLD to a facility that currently allows surface discharge of concentrate would approximately double the LCOW. For all four case studies, LCOW is most sensitive to changes in weighted average cost of capital, on-stream capacity, and plant life. Baseline assessments, pipe parity metrics, and scenario analyses can inform greater observability and understanding of reuse adoption and the potential for cost-effective and energy-efficient reuse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗