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This paper is not a description per se of the efforts by two software cost analysts. Rather, it is an outline of the methodology used for FSW cost analysis presented in a form that would serve as a foundation upon which others may gain insight into how to perform FSW cost analyses for their own problems at hand.
This report describes Rockwell International's cost analysis results of manned launch vehicle concepts for two way transportation system payloads to low earth orbit during the basic and option 1 period of performance for contract NAS8-39207, advanced transportation system studies. Vehicles analyzed include the space shuttle, personnel launch system (PLS) with advanced launch system (ALS) and national launch system (NLS) boosters, foreign launch vehicles, NLS-2 derived launch vehicles, liquid rocket booster (LRB) derived launch vehicle, and cargo transfer and return vehicle (CTRV).
Current space project cost models attempt to predict space flight project cost via regression equations, which relate the cost of projects to technical performance metrics (e.g. weight, thrust, power, pointing accuracy, etc.). This paper examines the introduction of engineering management parameters to the set of explanatory variables. A number of specific engineering management variables are considered and exploratory regression analysis is performed to determine if there is statistical evidence for cost effects apart from technical aspects of the projects. It is concluded that there are other non-technical effects at work and that further research is warranted to determine if it can be shown that these cost effects are definitely related to engineering management.
A second iteration of the program baseline configuration and cost for the solid propellant rocket engines used with the space shuttle booster system is presented. The purpose of the study was to ensure that total program costs were complete and to review areas where costs might be overly conservative and could be reduced. Labor and material were analyzed in more depth, more definition was prepared to separate recurring from nonrecurring costs, and the operations portions of the engine and stage were separated into more identifiable activities.
The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.
The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.
The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.
This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.
The current module and installation costs for the U.S. National Photovoltaic Program's grid-connected systems are significantly higher than required for economic viability of this alternative. Attention is accordingly given to the prospects for installed module cost reductions in flat plate, linear focus Fresnel concentrator, and point focus Fresnel concentrator candidate systems. Cost projections indicate that all three systems would meet near-term and midterm goals, provided that module costs of $2.80/W(p) and $0.70/W(p), respectively, are met. The point focus Fresnel system emerges as the most viable for the near term.
Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.
The Early Flight Fission-Test Facilities (EFF-TF) team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been tasked by the Naval Reactors Prime Contract Team (NRPCT) to provide a cost and delivery rough order of magnitude estimate for a refractory metal-based lithium (Li) flow circuit. The design is based on the stainless steel Li flow circuit that is currently being assembled for an NRPCT task underway at the EFF-TF. While geometrically the flow circuit is not representative of a final flight prototype, knowledge has been gained to quantify (time and cost) the materials, manufacturing, fabrication, assembly, and operations to produce a testable configuration. This Technical Memorandum (TM) also identifies the following key issues that need to be addressed by the fabrication process: Alloy selection and forming, cost and availability, welding, bending, machining, assembly, and instrumentation. Several candidate materials were identified by NRPCT including molybdenum (Mo) alloy (Mo-47.5 %Re), tantalum (Ta) alloys (T-111, ASTAR-811C), and niobium (Nb) alloy (Nb-1 %Zr). This TM is focused only on the Mo and Ta alloys, since they are of higher concern to the ongoing effort. The initial estimate to complete a Mo-47%Re system ready for testing is =$9,000k over a period of 30 mo. The initial estimate to complete a T-111 or ASTAR-811C system ready for testing is =$12,000k over a period of 36 mo.
Information from an Air Force study was used to determine the potential availability and cost of a modified conventional fuel with a naphthene content which could have a thermal stability near that of JP-7 for high-speed civil transports. Results showed sufficient capacity for a fuel made of a blend of 50 percent naphthenic straight run kerosene and 50 percent hydrocracked product, assuming a near-term requirement of 210,000 BBL per day. Fuel cost would be as low as 62.5 to 64.5 cents per gallon, assuming 20 dollars per barrel for crude.
In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.
The objective of the Space Transportation Booster Engine Configuration Study is to contribute to the ALS development effort by providing highly reliable, low cost booster engine concepts for both expendable and reusable rocket engines. The objectives of the Space Transportation Booster Engine (STBE) Configuration Study were: (1) to identify engine development configurations which enhance vehicle performance and provide operational flexibility at low cost; and (2) to explore innovative approaches to the follow-on Full-Scale Development (FSD) phase for the STBE.
Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.
It will be shown that the greatest barrier to American exploration of the planet Mars is not the development of the technology needed to deliver humans and return them safely to earth. Neither is it the cost of such an undertaking, as has been previously suggested, although certainly, such a venture may not be inexpensive by some measures. The predicted costs of exploration have discouraged serious political dialog on the subject. And, in fact, even optimistic projections of the NASA budget do not contain the resources required, under the existing development and management paradigm, for human space exploration programs. It will be demonstrated that the perception of the costs of such a venture, and the cultural responses to the perceptions are factors inhibiting American exploration of the moon and the planet Mars. Cost models employed in the aerospace industry today correctly mirror the history of past space programs, and as such, are representative of the existing management and development paradigms. However, if, under this current paradigm no major exploration programs are feasible, then cost analysis methods based in the past may not have great utility in exploring the needed cultural changes. This paper explores the use of a new type of model, the activity based cost model, which will treat management style as an input variable, in a sense providing a tool whereby a complete, affordable program might be designed, including both the technological and management aspects.
The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.
One method of evaluating the potential of emerging solar cell and array technologies is to compare their projected capabilities in space flight applications to those of established Si solar cells and arrays. Such an application-oriented comparison provides an integrated view of the elemental comparisons of efficiency, radiation resistance, temperature sensitivity, size, mass, and cost in combination. In addition, the assumptions necessary to make the comparisons provide insights helpful toward determining necessary areas of development or evaluation. Finally, as developments and evaluations progress, the results can be used in more precisely defining the overall potential of the new technologies in comparison to existing technologies. The projected capabilities of Si, InP, and GaAs cells and arrays are compared.