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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

PRISTINE: An Emulation Platform for PCB-Level Hardware Trojans

Printed circuit Boards (PCBs) are becoming increasingly vulnerable to malicious design alteration, also known as Trojan attacks, due to a distributed business model that often involves various untrusted parties. Such attacks can be mounted at various stages in the PCB life cycle. The relative ease of alteration of PCB hardware even after fabrication (due to physical access to surface-mounted critical components and traces) makes them attractive for an adversary to manipulate their functional/physical behavior for malicious intent. There is a growing need to explore viable Trojan attacks in a PCB, analyze their functional and physical characteristics (e.g., impact on power or delay), and study the effectiveness of countermeasures against these attacks. While simulation-based approaches for PCB Trojan insertion are effective at creating a large population of possible Trojans, they fail to provide functional feasibility analysis with a realistic workload for a trigger circuit. Also, they cannot estimate a Trojan’s side-channel footprint due to the unavailability of physical models of diverse PCB components. To address these deficiencies, in this paper, we present PRISTINE, a PCB-level emulation system for any integrity or physical tampering issues, specifically, hardware Trojan insertion. The need for building such an emulation platform to resolve PCB trust issues in the supply chain is also surveyed and discussed. Both custom Hardware Hacking (HaHa) boards and multiple commercial PCBs are then used to test the ability of the proposed system to emulate various hardware Trojans specially designed to exploit board-specific hardware characteristics. Experimental results on emulated board-level Trojans show that a wide range of Trojans can be successfully activated, thus enabling the expected payload effects on both types of boards to be studied and quantified. The resulting data are further analyzed to create PCB-level Trojan benchmarks. In particular, a comparative evaluation of the experimental results is used to propose a risk level metric that quantifies the probability of detection and degree of payload impact of each Trojan on a given commercial PCB.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon Dioxide Utilization Life Cycle Analysis Guidance for the U.S. DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (Version 2.0)

Capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and placing it in permanent storage in geologic formations is an option for reducing CO 2 emissions, but it may not be a viable one for all CO 2 emitters. For some, the added cost of capture may be too high to implement, or the geology near the source may not be suitable for storage. In these circumstances, other options will be needed. Carbon use and reuse, or CO 2 utilization (CO2U), is an alternative approach that seeks beneficial uses for captured CO 2 , such as using it as a feedstock in the production of fuels, chemicals, and building materials. These uses would give CO 2 value that could be used by suppliers (emitters) to offset capture costs. One of the principal features and challenges associated with CO2U is that the products derived from CO 2 must have lower carbon footprints than their conventional counterparts. Previous assessments of CO2U alternatives have focused on the carbon content of utilization products as an indicator of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions reduction potential. However, embodied emissions are—at best—only weakly correlated with the amount of carbon contained in any physical product. Therefore, the most attractive CO2U options will both displace the carbon in an existing product and improve the overall carbon efficiency of the manufacturing process. Research to overcome barriers will include identifying existing co-feeds and available low-carbon energy sources to enable the conversion of CO 2 to value-added products under favorable processing conditions. New discoveries in the fields of nano- and bio-technology will be applied to efficiently utilize CO 2 in new applications. Development of advanced materials and processes, integrating CO 2 capture with utilization processes (e.g., algae), exploring a diverse slate of products from CO 2 to effectively offset capture costs and developing processes based on waste energy are means to overcome these barriers. The research will lead to the development of advanced catalysts, materials, and equipment that can be used to convert CO 2 into useful products. The result will be multiple flexible and adaptable technology platforms that can be used to produce suites of products spanning multiple utilization pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adroit Materials Final Scientific/Technical Report kV-class GaN-based Junction Barrier Schottky diodes using ion implantation

The primary aim of this research was to develop GaN-based Junction Barrier Schottky (JBS) diodes using an innovative ion implantation process previously established in ARPA-E funded projects. The central focus of our proposed technology revolves around selective area p-type doping, accomplished through the implantation of Mg ions. This approach builds upon our successes in the ARPA-E PNDIODES program, advancing towards commercial device integration. Selective area p-doping plays a pivotal role in realizing the next generation of GaN-based power devices, capable of significantly reducing the carbon footprint in the United States by several million tons. While ion implantation is a well-established technique for achieving selective area doping in SiC and Si materials, its feasibility in GaN had not been demonstrated until now. To fabricate high voltage GaN JBS diodes, we initially created thick n-type drift layers with high carrier concentrations ranging from 5×1015 cm-3 to 2×1016 cm-3 and very high mobilities. Subsequently, Mg ions were selectively implanted to form p-type islands within the n-type drift layer. To reduce electric field crowding at the edge of the diode and to achieve high breakdown voltage, junction edge termination (JTE) and floating field rings (FFRs) were formed using Mg implantation. A high temperature, high-pressure post-implantation annealing process was carried out to activate the implanted Mg ions. As a result, we were able to demonstrate GaN JBS diodes with a breakdown voltage of 915 V and an on-resistance of 0.6 mΩ·cm2. These diodes exhibited a forward bias current density of 1 kA/cm2 at 1.5 V. Subsequently, we achieved GaN JBS diodes with a remarkable breakdown voltage of 1900 V and an on-resistance of 1.9 mΩ·cm2, capable of sustaining a forward bias current density of 0.5 kA/cm2 at 1.5 V. Importantly, the ON and OFF state performance of these GaN JBS diodes surpassed that of Si and SiC-based power diodes reported in existing literature. Lastly, we successfully grew 60 μm thick GaN:Si layers using HVPE with a carrier concentration of approximately 3 to 5×1015 cm-3. Based on simulation and empirical data these devices represent 5 kV GaN JBS power diodes, leveraging the developed processes in this project.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Symmetry-Based Structured Matrices for Efficient Approximately Equivariant Networks

There has been much recent interest in designing symmetry-aware neural networks (NNs) exhibiting relaxed equivariance. Such NNs aim to interpolate between being exactly equivariant and being fully flexible, affording consistent performance benefits. In a separate line of work, certain structured parameter matrices -- those with displacement structure, characterized by low displacement rank (LDR) -- have been used to design small-footprint NNs. Displacement structure enables fast function and gradient evaluation, but permits accurate approximations via compression primarily to classical convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this work, we propose a general framework -- based on a novel construction of symmetry-based structured matrices -- to build approximately equivariant NNs with significantly reduced parameter counts. Our framework integrates the two aforementioned lines of work via the use of so-called Group Matrices (GMs), a forgotten precursor to the modern notion of regular representations of finite groups. GMs allow the design of structured matrices -- resembling LDR matrices -- which generalize the linear operations of a classical CNN from cyclic groups to general finite groups and their homogeneous spaces. We show that GMs can be employed to extend all the elementary operations of CNNs to general discrete groups. Further, the theory of structured matrices based on GMs provides a generalization of LDR theory focussed on matrices with cyclic structure, providing a tool for implementing approximate equivariance for discrete groups. We test GM-based architectures on a variety of tasks in the presence of relaxed symmetry. We report that our framework consistently performs competitively compared to approximately equivariant NNs, and other structured matrix-based compression frameworks, sometimes with a one or two orders of magnitude lower parameter count.

Samudre, Ashwin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Enabled Sensor Fusion for In-Situ Defect Detection in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. The current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques such as X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT), which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. RTX Technologies Research Center (RTRC) has licensed ORNL’s Peregrine software package – a printer- and camera-agnostic data analytics tool designed specifically for detecting process anomalies using in situ data collected during powder bed printing. The goal of this project was to feed temporally rich, multi-modal sensor data, including visible light, integrated near infrared (NIR), and spatially mapped co-axial melt pool thermal emission data into Peregrine to enable detection of subsurface flaws. XCT data was used as ground truth training data to allow Peregrine’s deep learning algorithms to recognize anomalies in these complex data streams in both test artifacts and industrially relevant geometries. Completion of this program has seen the successful implementation of multi-modal, multi-layer sensor data footprints for training of machine learning models in Peregrine. Flaws detected in XCT data have been successfully detected directly from this in situ data footprint, and initial analyses of the in situ probability-of-detection has been conducted, showing performance levels commensurate with traditional non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods. The in situ monitoring methodology was then applied to an industrially relevant component that was using post-build NDE, highlighting the utility of the proposed method for hard-to-inspect AM components. As a direct result of this program, two journal manuscripts [1], [2] have been published in Additive Manufacturing, with additional manuscripts planned following program completion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Establishing Maximal Core Excess Reactivity Envelope for TREAT Test Vehicle Insertion

The Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility is an air-cooled reactor composed of graphite-urania fuel encapsulated in zirconium alloy canisters and surrounded by ~2 ft (~61 cm) of nuclear grade graphite. The primary role of TREAT is to provide in-pile nuclear-heated safety research via transient testing [1]. The following work represents further analyses building upon previously reported work to support larger volume test vehicles within TREAT [2]. The Broad Use Specimen Transient Experiment Rig (BUSTER) provides ample versatility for numerous transient test concepts. However, future testing and experiment needs will require testing environments of different in-core footprints. The versatility of TREAT allows for the development of variegated core layouts with key limitations emplaced as operational safety temperature restrictions and available core reactivity. The focus of this current effort is to gauge core arrangements for TREAT core loadings to support centralized experimental testing of varying dimensional capacity. The total core excess reactivity (ER) was computed for different arrangements to establish comparison tables that enable ready assessment of core ER available for future experiment concepts. Test vehicle worths would then be necessary to establish available ER to support transient testing requirements and to perform reactor performance and safety calculations [3,4].

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) [Abstract]

Approximately half of global energy consumption is used for heating and cooling. Because fossil fuels are used to meet most of this demand, heating and cooling of buildings produces a large portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The proposed project seeks to demonstrate the feasibility of a seasonal thermal energy storage concept called fracture thermal energy storage (FTES), which has the potential to dramatically lower energy requirements for heating and cooling and improve the resilience of building energy systems. FTES is a technique for building a highly efficient heat exchanger by creating a carefully designed set of fractures in the ground below a building. This heat exchanger allows thermal energy to be stored over seasonal timeframes—for example, hot thermal energy that is easily captured in the summer or energy from waste heat sources—to meet heating needs during colder months. FTES offers a solution with a relatively small footprint and lower cost compared to currently operating aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems and could be used in the many areas without aquifers suitable for ATES. If commercialized, FTES systems could exceed the 2.5 TWh of energy storage per year from the more than 2,800 ATES systems in operation worldwide, which range from 0.1 MW to 30 MW. The savings in CO2 emissions per year are also expected to match or exceed individual ATES projects, with the largest, a 30 MW system used to provide heating and cooling to the University of Technology in Eindhoven in the Netherlands, estimated to save 13,000 tons of CO2 emissions per year. FTES utilizes mature drilling and fracturing technology and therefore has the potential to be rapidly commercialized once demonstrated. The ability to construct and establish flow through an FTES heat exchanger has been demonstrated by a previous project and the potential for efficient, large-capacity energy storage has been shown using numerical models. However, no experimental validation of these numerical estimates of thermal energy storage has been made. The first crucial need to advance FTES technology is to identify the sensitivity of key metrics such as thermal energy storage and production rates, capacities, and efficiencies to design parameters such as the number of fractures, depth/temperature of fractures, size of fractures, and circulation rates. The second crucial need is experimental testing of achievable thermal performance with optimized system design parameters. The proposed scope of work seeks to systematically address these two critical needs through a highly complementary international collaboration spanning theory, laboratory, and mesoscale field evaluation. The proposed work plan calls for using dimensional analysis and existing state-of-the-art numerical simulators to design carefully scaled laboratory and 10-meter-scale field tests of the thermal efficiency of FTES. The existing advanced laboratory and intermediate-scale field testbeds that will be used for this project will allow for detailed monitoring of the system performance during the test and of how the performance changes across time and length scales. These results will determine the feasibility of full- scale FTES systems. If the thermal performance is consistent with model predictions, the results will provide a strong economic justification for rapid commercialization of FTES technology in a wide range of geographical areas.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

An analytic approximation to the covariance between pre- and post-reconstruction galaxy two-point statistics

We present a simple analytic approximation for the covariance between pre-reconstruction galaxy power spectrum measurements and post-reconstruction two-point correlation functions. This cross-covariance is essential for joint analyses that combine full-shape clustering information with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, as commonly performed in modern spectroscopic surveys. Our model builds on the disconnected contribution to the covariance and accounts for the damping of correlations due to the BAO reconstruction process. We validate our analytic prescription against numerical simulations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), testing both idealized cubic geometries and realistic survey configurations including complex footprints and fiber assignment effects. Despite neglecting survey window functions in the analytic calculation, we find excellent agreement with simulation-based covariances and demonstrate that cosmological parameter constraints are virtually unchanged when using our approximation. Our results show that the pre-post cross-covariance is sufficiently small that even approximate treatments are adequate for cosmological inference, opening a pathway toward fully analytic covariance matrices for next-generation galaxy surveys.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Center Waste Heat as an Emerging Urban Thermal Hazard: First Field Measurements of Neighborhood-Scale Air Temperature Impacts

Data centers are among the fastest-growing sources of concentrated anthropogenic heat in urban environments. Despite heat flux densities that exceed peak solar irradiance by a factor of 2–6, their thermal impacts on adjacent communities have never been directly measured or reported in the peer-reviewed literature. This short communication addresses that gap by presenting the first vehicle-based traverse measurements of air temperature in residential neighborhoods downwind of operational data centers. Five traverses at four facilities in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, ranging from a 36 MW single-building data center in Mesa to a 169 MW colocation campus in Chandler, reveal downwind air temperature warming as high as 2.2 °C, with average downwind air temperatures 0.7–0.9 °C warmer than corresponding upwind areas. Thermal signatures were detectable at distances up to 500 m from facility perimeters. The 36 MW Mesa facility rejects waste heat equivalent to the electricity consumption of approximately 40,000 households, while the 169 MW Chandler campus is equivalent to over 180,000 households, both concentrated into footprints smaller than a single residential subdivision. With U.S. data center capacity projected to more than double by 2030, these findings establish data center anthropogenic waste heat as a previously undocumented urban thermal hazard demanding attention from the data center and urban planning communities.

Phoenix↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dual Purpose – Heating & Cooling – Thermal Battery for Flexible and Energy-Efficient Heat Pump Systems

The integration of heat pumps with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) systems is gaining attention as a viable solution for managing peak building demand driven by immense cooling and heating loads. With growing reliance on renewable energy sources, thermal energy storage offers an excellent opportunity to mitigate mismatches in thermal load between energy supply and demand. The use of phase-change material (PCM) TES is especially promising, as PCMs offer significant latent energy storage capacity with smaller temperature glides in smaller volumes compared to other TES technologies. However, challenges arise because current HP-TES architectures can load-shift only cooling or heating, not both, requiring two systems and thus doubling cost, weight, and footprint. Furthermore, current research efforts lack specific tools and techniques to advance integrated systems from concept design to end-user application, focusing on only discharge performance. To address these challenges, this research proposes a dual-mode (heating and cooling) integrated HP-TES system that uses room-temperature PCM-TES as a high-temperature heat source in heating mode and a low-temperature heat sink in cooling mode, thereby reducing temperature lifts and compressor power. Design criteria for PCM-TES heat exchangers were developed, balancing thermal-hydraulic performance with practical constraints such as available building space and weight requirements along with PCM selection considerations such as shipping conditions, moisture exposure, and number of available cycles. A detailed transient model for HP-TES systems was developed to enable rapid annual performance assessments in any US climate zone.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2016

Laser Pulse Production for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar

The Lasers and Electro-Optics Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center has been tasked with building the Lasers for the Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Mission, to be installed on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on the International Space Station (ISS). GEDI will use three NASA-developed lasers, each coupled with a Beam Dithering Unit (BDU) to produce three sets of staggered footprints on the Earth's surface to accurately measure global biomass. We will report on the design, assembly progress, test results, and delivery process of this laser system.

Laser Oscillator↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connected Loads – Grid Connected Appliances: Commercial Refrigeration System Fault Detection and Diagnostics

As one of the most energy-intensive end-uses in the commercial buildings sector, supermarkets consume around 50 kWh/ft 2 (or 537.6 kWh/m 2 ) of electricity annually, or more than 2 million kWh of electricity per year for a typical store. The biggest consumer of energy in a supermarket is its refrigeration system, which accounts for 40–60% of its total electricity usage and is equivalent to about 2–3% of the total energy consumed by commercial buildings in United States, or around 0.5 quadrillion Btu (or 0.53 quadrillion KJ). Also, the supermarket refrigeration system is one of the biggest consumers of refrigerants. Current supermarket refrigeration systems rely on high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants. Reducing refrigerant usage or using environment friendly alternatives can result in significant climate benefits. Transcritical CO2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attention in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in commercial buildings such as supermarkets. The refrigeration system can also be adapted to handle flexible building loads and be integrated into grid response transactive control to balance the supply and demand of the electric grid. Even minor improvements in the efficiency and operational reliability of supermarket refrigeration systems can create significant value in terms of saving energy, improving food quality, protecting the environment, reducing carbon footprint, and enhancing electric grid resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Creating the Distributed Energy Resources Education Center (DEREC)

The built environment in the United States consumes 40% of the energy generated and emits roughly the same percentage of total carbon footprint. Distributed energy resources (DER), small or modular energy generation and storage technologies, present the nation with an opportunity to substantially improve those metrics while securing the nation’s energy independence. As opportunities increase for implementing such technologies, they also continue to evolve and often outpace the nation’s traditional building practices. In an effort to effectively and proactively incorporate distributed energy resources into the nation’s energy supply, Southface Energy Institute convened with national and regional partners to create the Distributed Energy Resources Education Center (DEREC). Using national model codes and their regionally amended versions as a collective starting point, the DEREC team collaborated with industry experts and identified impediments to effective implementation of DERs, developing discipline-specific curriculum to eliminate those impediments. The center, developed in collaboration with Interstate Renewable Energy Committee (IREC) and National Buildings Institute (NBI), leverages existing DER education content as well as new and dynamic training materials and online courses that collectively engage the many roles necessary for DER implementations, including designers, code officials, builders and skilled trades, and building owners who specify, inspect, build, operate, and maintain buildings with DERs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

MicroShell Minimalist Shell for Xilinx Microprocessors

MicroShell is a lightweight shell environment for engineers and software developers working with embedded microprocessors in Xilinx FPGAs. (MicroShell has also been successfully ported to run on ARM Cortex-M1 microprocessors in Actel ProASIC3 FPGAs, but without project-integration support.) Micro Shell decreases the time spent performing initial tests of field-programmable gate array (FPGA) designs, simplifies running customizable one-time-only experiments, and provides a familiar-feeling command-line interface. The program comes with a collection of useful functions and enables the designer to add an unlimited number of custom commands, which are callable from the command-line. The commands are parameterizable (using the C-based command-line parameter idiom), so the designer can use one function to exercise hardware with different values. Also, since many hardware peripherals instantiated in FPGAs have reasonably simple register-mapped I/O interfaces, the engineer can edit and view hardware parameter settings at any time without stopping the processor. MicroShell comes with a set of support scripts that interface seamlessly with Xilinx's EDK tool. Adding an instance of MicroShell to a project is as simple as marking a check box in a library configuration dialog box and specifying a software project directory. The support scripts then examine the hardware design, build design-specific functions, conditionally include processor-specific functions, and complete the compilation process. For code-size constrained designs, most of the stock functionality can be excluded from the compiled library. When all of the configurable options are removed from the binary, MicroShell has an unoptimized memory footprint of about 4.8 kB and a size-optimized footprint of about 2.3 kB. Since MicroShell allows unfettered access to all processor-accessible memory locations, it is possible to perform live patching on a running system. This can be useful, for instance, if a bug is discovered in a routine but the system cannot be rebooted: Shell allows a skilled operator to directly edit the binary executable in memory. With some forethought, MicroShell code can be located in a different memory location from custom code, permitting the custom functionality to be overwritten at any time without stopping the controlling shell.

Werne, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Laser Pulse Production for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar

The Lasers and Electro-Optics Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center has been tasked with building the Lasers for the Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Mission, to be installed on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on the International Space Station (ISS)1. GEDI will use three NASA-developed lasers, each coupled with a Beam Dithering Unit (BDU) to produce three sets of staggered footprints on the Earth's surface to accurately measure global biomass. We will report on the design, assembly progress, test results, and delivery process of this laser system.

Laser Oscillator↗
NASA NTRS2016

Paving the Path for Human Space Exploration: The Challenges and Opportunities

Lauri Hansen, Director of Engineering at NASA Johnson Space Center will discuss the challenges of human space exploration. The future of human exploration begins with our current earth reliant missions in low earth orbit. These missions utilize the International Space Station to learn how to safely execute deep space missions. In addition to serving as an exploration test bed and enabling world class research, the International Space Station enables NASA to build international and commercial partnerships. NASA's next steps will be to enable the commercialization of low earth orbit while concentrating on developing the spacecraft and infrastructure necessary for deep space exploration and long duration missions. The Orion multi-purpose crew vehicle and the Space Launch System rocket are critical building blocks in this next phase of exploration. There are many challenges in designing spacecraft to perform these missions including safety, complex vehicle design, and mass challenges. Orion development is proceeding well, and includes a significant partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA) to develop and build the Service Module portion of the spacecraft. Together, NASA and ESA will provide the capability to take humans further than we have ever been before - 70,000 km past the moon. This will be the next big step in expanding the frontiers of human exploration, eventually leading to human footprints on Mars.

Hansen, Lauri↗
NASA NTRS2007

Ares Launch Vehicles Overview: Space Access Society

America is returning to the Moon in preparation for the first human footprint on Mars, guided by the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration. This presentation will discuss NASA's mission, the reasons for returning to the Moon and going to Mars, and how NASA will accomplish that mission in ways that promote leadership in space and economic expansion on the new frontier. The primary goals of the Vision for Space Exploration are to finish the International Space Station, retire the Space Shuttle, and build the new spacecraft needed to return people to the Moon and go to Mars. The Vision commits NASA and the nation to an agenda of exploration that also includes robotic exploration and technology development, while building on lessons learned over 50 years of hard-won experience. NASA is building on common hardware, shared knowledge, and unique experience derived from the Apollo Saturn, Space Shuttle, and contemporary commercial launch vehicle programs. The journeys to the Moon and Mars will require a variety of vehicles, including the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, which transports the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle, which transports the Lunar Surface Access Module. The architecture for the lunar missions will use one launch to ferry the crew into orbit, where it will rendezvous with the Lunar Module in the Earth Departure Stage, which will then propel the combination into lunar orbit. The imperative to explore space with the combination of astronauts and robots will be the impetus for inventions such as solar power and water and waste recycling. This next chapter in NASA's history promises to write the next chapter in American history, as well. It will require this nation to provide the talent to develop tools, machines, materials, processes, technologies, and capabilities that can benefit nearly all aspects of life on Earth. Roles and responsibilities are shared between a nationwide Government and industry team. The Exploration Launch Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center manages the design, development, testing, and evaluation of both vehicles and serves as lead systems integrator. A little over a year after it was chartered, the Exploration Launch Projects team is testing engine components, refining vehicle designs, performing wind tunnel tests, and building hardware for the first flight test of Ares I-X, scheduled for spring 2009. The Exploration Launch Projects team conducted the Ares I System Requirements Review (SRR) at the end of 2006. In Ares' first year, extensive trade studies and evaluations were conducted to refine the design initially recommended by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study, conceptual designs were analyzed for fitness, and the contractual framework was assembled to enable a development effort unparalleled in American space flight since the Space Shuttle. Now, the project turns its focus to the Preliminary Design Review (PDR), scheduled for 2008. Taking into consideration the findings of the SRR, the design of the Ares I is being tightened and refined to meet the safety, operability, reliability, and affordability goals outlined by the Constellation Program. The Ares V is in the early design stage, focusing its activities on requirements validation and ways to develop this heavy-lift system so that synergistic hardware commonality between it and the Ares I can reduce the operational footprint and foster sustained exploration across the decades ahead.

Cook, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine many of these theoretical assumptions, including the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. This study also employs empirical and theoretical information to test these assumptions, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of these calculations in the future.

Matney, Mark↗