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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Changes in Concentration and Yield of Riverine Dissolved Silicon From the Poles to the Tropics

Riverine exports of silicon (Si) influence global carbon cycling through the growth of marine diatoms, which account for ~25% of global primary production. Climate change will likely alter river Si exports in biome-specific ways due to interacting shifts in chemical weathering rates, hydrologic connectivity, and metabolic processes in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Nonetheless, factors driving long-term changes in Si exports remain unexplored at local, regional, and global scales. We evaluated how concentrations and yields of dissolved Si (DSi) changed over the last several decades of rapid climate warming using long-term data sets from 60 rivers and streams spanning the globe (e.g., Antarctic, tropical, temperate, boreal, alpine, Arctic systems). We show that widespread changes in river DSi concentration and yield have occurred, with the most substantial shifts occurring in alpine and polar regions. The magnitude and direction of trends varied within and among biomes, were most strongly associated with differences in land cover, and were often independent of changes in river discharge. These findings indicate that there are likely diverse mechanisms driving change in river Si biogeochemistry that span the land-water interface, which may include glacial melt, changes in terrestrial vegetation, and river productivity. Finally, trends were often stronger in months outside of the growing season, particularly in temperate and boreal systems, demonstrating a potentially important role of shifting seasonality for the flux of Si from rivers. Our results have implications for the timing and magnitude of silica processing in rivers and its delivery to global oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Seasonal Cycle by Tropical Instability Waves

Feedbacks from tropical instability waves (TIWs) on the seasonal cycle of the eastern Pacific Ocean are studied using two eddy-rich ocean simulations, with and without TIWs. By warming the equatorial waters by up to 0.4°C through nonlinear advection in boreal summer and fall, TIWs reduce the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in upper ocean temperatures. In addition, TIWs stabilize the upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) through enhanced barotropic energy conversion, leading to a year-round weakening by -0.15 m s -1 and preventing an unrealistic re-intensification in boreal fall usually found in non-eddy resolving models. A coarser simulation at 1-degree horizontal resolution fails to reproduce the TIW-induced nonlinear warming of equatorial waters, but succeeds in inhibiting the EUC re-intensification. This suggests a threshold effect in TIW strength, associated with the model's ability to simulate eddies, which may be responsible for long-standing biases displayed by global climate models in this region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The temperature sensitivity of soil: microbial biodiversity, growth, and carbon mineralization

Abstract Microorganisms drive soil carbon mineralization and changes in their activity with increased temperature could feedback to climate change. Variation in microbial biodiversity and the temperature sensitivities (Q10) of individual taxa may explain differences in the Q10 of soil respiration, a possibility not previously examined due to methodological limitations. Here, we show phylogenetic and taxonomic variation in the Q10 of growth (5–35 °C) among soil bacteria from four sites, one from each of Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical biomes. Differences in the temperature sensitivities of taxa and the taxonomic composition of communities determined community-assembled bacterial growth Q10, which was strongly predictive of soil respiration Q10 within and across biomes. Our results suggest community-assembled traits of microbial taxa may enable enhanced prediction of carbon cycling feedbacks to climate change in ecosystems across the globe.

Wang, Chao (ORCID:0000000257567505)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11–19 °C above contemporary values. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in high-latitude surface energy balance driven by snowpack and vegetation dynamics under warmer climate

With rapid climate warming, expected changes in snowpack and vegetation will alter the seasonal surface albedo of high-latitude ecosystems. The extent to which these albedo changes may affect surface energy balances and thus soil temperatures is uncertain, but represents a potentially important component of ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. Here, we apply a well-tested process-rich ecosystem model, ecosys , to examine changes in seasonal surface albedo and soil temperature driven by climate-induced snowpack and vegetation changes across Alaska under a warmer twenty-first century climate. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the modeled changes in surface albedo exhibited large seasonal and spatial variations. We found spring albedo decreases driven by increases in snow-free periods (>20 d) and an extended growing season length that resulted in greater gains in leaf area index (LAI) in most parts of Alaska. In contrast, we modeled increases in summer and winter albedo (despite modeled increases in LAI) across much of the boreal forest due to an increased proportion of aspen, which has a higher leaf albedo than the currently dominant black spruce. Modeled latent heat fluxes generally increase across the twenty-first century, particularly during the spring and summer. Overall, climate warming and changes in surface energy fluxes resulted in a 3.5 ± 0.50 °C increase in spatial- and annual-averaged top 10 cm surface soil temperatures across Alaskan ecosystems by the year 2100, with larger increases in tundra than boreal forest regions. We conclude that under warmer climates, seasonal variations in albedo and surface energy fluxes are particularly pronounced during the spring and summer, driven by changes in snowpack and vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗
DOE OSTI2020

Warming and disturbance alter soil microbiome diversity and function in a northern forest ecotone

ABSTRACT The response to global change by soil microbes is set to affect important ecosystem processes. These impacts could be most immediate in transitional zones, such as the temperate-boreal forest ecotone, yet previous work in these forests has primarily focused on specific subsets of microbial taxa. Here, we examined how bacterial and fungal communities respond to simulated above- and below-ground warming under realistic field conditions in closed and open canopy treatments in Minnesota, USA. Our results show that warming and canopy disturbance shifted bacterial and fungal community structure as dominant bacterial and fungal groups differed in the direction and intensity of their responses. Ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungal communities with greater connectivity (higher prevalence of strongly interconnected taxa based on pairwise co-occurrence relationships) were more resistant to compositional change. Warming effects on soil enzymes involved in the hydrolytic and oxidative liberation of carbon from plant cell walls and nutrients from organic matter were most strongly linked to fungal community responses, although community structure–function relationships differed between fungal guilds. Collectively, these findings indicate that warming and disturbance will influence the composition and function of microbial communities in the temperate-boreal ecotone, and fungal responses are particularly important to understand for predicting future ecosystem functioning.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of linear regression, k-nearest neighbour and random forest methods in airborne laser-scanning-based prediction of growing stock

Abstract In this study, for five sites around the world, we look at the effects of different model types and variable selection approaches on forest yield modelling performances in an area-based approach (ABA). We compared ordinary least squares regression (OLS), k-nearest neighbours (kNN) and random forest (RF). Our objective was to test if there are systematic differences in accuracy between OLS, kNN and RF in ABA predictions of growing stock volume. The analyses are based on a 5-fold cross-validation at five study sites: an eucalyptus plantation, a temperate forest and three different boreal forests. Two completely independent validation datasets were also available for two of the boreal sites. For the kNN, we evaluated multiple measures of distance including Euclidean, Mahalanobis, most similar neighbour (MSN) and an RF-based distance metric. The variable selection approaches we examined included a heuristic approach (for OLS, kNN and RF), exhaustive search among all combinations (OLS only) and all variables together (RF only). Performances varied by model type and variable selection approaches among sites. OLS and RF had similar accuracies and were more efficient than any of the kNN variants. Variable selection did not affect RF performance. Heuristic and exhaustive variable selection performed similarly for OLS. kNN fared the poorest amongst model types, and kNN with RF distance was prone to overfitting when compared with a validation dataset. Additional caution is therefore required when building kNN models for volume prediction though ABA, being preferable instead to opt for models based on OLS with some variable selection, or RF with all variables together.

Cosenza, Diogo N.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photosynthetic capacity in middle-aged larch and spruce acclimates independently to experimental warming and elevated CO 2

Photosynthetic acclimation to both warming and elevated CO 2 of boreal trees remains a key uncertainty in modelling the response of photosynthesis to future climates. We investigated the impact of increased growth temperature and elevated CO 2 on photosynthetic capacity (V cmax and J max ) in mature trees of two North American boreal conifers, tamarack and black spruce. We show that V cmax and J max at a standard temperature of 25°C did not change with warming, while V cmax and J max at their thermal optima (T opt ) and growth temperature (T g ) increased. Moreover, V cmax and J max at either 25°C, T opt or T g decreased with elevated CO 2 . The J max /V cmax ratio decreased with warming when assessed at both T opt and T g but did not significantly vary at 25°C. The J max /V cmax increased with elevated CO 2 at either reference temperature. We found no significant interaction between warming and elevated CO 2 on all traits. If this lack of interaction between warming and elevated CO 2 on the V cmax , J max and J max /V cmax ratio is a general trend, it would have significant implications for improving photosynthesis representation in vegetation models. However, future research is required to investigate the widespread nature of this response in a larger number of species and biomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coarse woody debris decomposition assessment tool: Model development and sensitivity analysis

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is an important component in forests, hosting a variety of organisms that have critical roles in nutrient cycling and carbon (C) storage. We developed a process-based model using literature, field observations, and expert knowledge to assess woody debris decomposition in forests and the movement of wood C into the soil and atmosphere. The sensitivity analysis was conducted against the primary ecological drivers (wood properties and ambient conditions) used as model inputs. The analysis used eighty-nine climate datasets from North America, from tropical (14.2° N) to boreal (65.0° N) zones, with large ranges in annual mean temperature (26.5°C in tropical to -11.8°C in boreal), annual precipitation (6,143 to 181 mm), annual snowfall (0 to 612 kg m -2 ), and altitude (3 to 2,824 m above mean see level). The sensitivity analysis showed that CWD decomposition was strongly affected by climate, geographical location and altitude, which together regulate the activity of both microbial and invertebrate wood-decomposers. CWD decomposition rate increased with increments in temperature and precipitation, but decreased with increases in latitude and altitude. CWD decomposition was also sensitive to wood size, density, position (standing vs downed), and tree species. The sensitivity analysis showed that fungi are the most important decomposers of woody debris, accounting for over 50% mass loss in nearly all climatic zones in North America. The model includes invertebrate decomposers, focusing mostly on termites, which can have an important role in CWD decomposition in tropical and some subtropical regions. The role of termites in woody debris decomposition varied widely, between 0 and 40%, from temperate areas to tropical regions. Woody debris decomposition rates simulated for eighty-nine locations in North America were within the published range of woody debris decomposition rates for regions in northern hemisphere from 1.6° N to 68.3° N and in Australia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive

This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2026

SPRUCE Bud Cold Hardiness of Trees and Shrubs in Experimental Plots, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, 2021-2025

This dataset contains bud cold hardiness measurements from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site (Hanson et al, 2017) within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. Cold hardiness was quantified as the temperature at which low temperature exotherms (LTEs) were identified (i.e., the temperature at which supercooled water within a bud freezes) measured by differential thermal analysis (DTA). Buds were sampled at semi-regular intervals from September 2021 through May 2025 (2021-09-25 to 2025-05-21) across four seasons (2021-2022 through 2024-2025) for four co-occurring boreal peatland tree and shrub species: Picea mariana (PIMA), Larix laricina (LALA), Rhododendron groenlandicum (RHGR), and Chamaedaphne calyculata (CHCA). Samples were collected across the experiment's warming gradient (ambient to +9 degrees Celsius (C)) and pooled by species within each enclosure. These data were used to assess the species- and season-specific effects of experimental warming on cold hardiness and cold damage risk in boreal peatland vegetation (Campos-Arguedas et al, accepted). This dataset contains one data file in comma-separate values (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: a data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

Chamaedaphne calyculata↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leafweb: Dataset in Support of Coupled Modeling of Photophysics, Photochemistry, and Biochemistry of Photosynthesis, December 2022 Release

This data set contains measurements of leaf gas exchange and Pulse-Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometry of light, carbon dioxide (CO2), oxygen (O2), and temperature responses from 26 C3 photosynthetic and four C4 photosynthetic species measured by independent researchers in Canada, China, Finland, Netherlands, and United States in the field, garden, or greenhouse. Data were collected between 1987 and 2021, however data for individual species only provide coverage over a few hours to one year. Species include three lianas, three shrubs, two boreal deciduous trees, two boreal evergreen needle-leaf tree, three temperate deciduous trees, four tropical deciduous trees, three tropical evergreen trees, one C3 grass, three C4 grasses, and six crop varieties. These measurements are conducted according to standard protocols in gas exchange (Long and Bernacchi 2003) and PAM fluorometry (Baker 2008). The Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) dataset contains one-year continuous fluorometry observations made at intervals of 10 or 30 minutes in the field under natural environments using Walz monitoring PAM. Measurements from all other 29 species include simultaneous PAM fluorometry and gas exchange observations. Among these 29 species, seven species were measured with light response curves only (i.e., light intensity varied systematically with ambient CO2 concentration controlled at a constant level, e.g., 400 ppm). All the other 22 species were measured with both the light response and CO2 response (i.e., ambient CO2 concentration varied systematically with light intensity controlled at a constant level, e.g., 1200 µmolm-2s-1). For most species, measurements were made with temperature controlled at ~ 25 degrees Celsius (C) with the exceptions of Scots pine (natural diurnal and seasonal variations), tomato cultivar Basket Vee (~ 21 degrees C), and cotton which contained temperature stress experiments (9 to 40 degrees C). All measurements were made at ambient O2 concentration except for the tomato cultivar Basket Vee and cotton which used two O2 levels (2 and 21%) and rice and tomato cultivar Growdena which used five O2 levels (2, 10, 21, 35, and 50%). This dataset supports the complete modeling of photosynthesis at the leaf scale, including photophysical, photochemical, and biochemical reactions. It will support research in the applications of remotely sensed solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence and the responses of energy dissipation pathways to environmental variations across species and climates. This dataset contains 260 data files in comma separate (.csv) format contained inside 11 compressed (*.zip) files. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary, a species information table, and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

air temperature↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions

Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗