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At least 145 records · Page 8

Techno-economic assessment for the production of algal fuels and value-added products: opportunities for high-protein microalgae conversion

Abstract Background Microalgae possess numerous advantages for use as a feedstock in producing renewable fuels and products, with techno-economic analysis (TEA) frequently used to highlight the economic potential and technical challenges of utilizing this biomass in a biorefinery context. However, many historical TEA studies have focused on the conversion of biomass with elevated levels of carbohydrates and lipids and lower levels of protein, incurring substantial burdens on the ability to achieve high cultivation productivity rates relative to nutrient-replete, high-protein biomass. Given a strong dependence of algal biomass production costs on cultivation productivity, further TEA assessment is needed to understand the economic potential for utilizing potentially lower-cost but lower-quality, high-protein microalgae for biorefinery conversion. Results In this work, we conduct rigorous TEA modeling to assess the economic viability of two conceptual technology pathways for processing proteinaceous algae into a suite of fuels and products. One approach, termed mild oxidative treatment and upgrading (MOTU), makes use of a series of thermo-catalytic operations to upgrade solubilized proteins and carbohydrates to hydrocarbon fuels, while another alternative focuses on the biological conversion of those substrates to oxygenated fuels in the form of mixed alcohols (MA). Both pathways rely on the production of polyurethanes from unsaturated fatty acids and valorization of unconverted solids for use as a material for synthesizing bioplastics. The assessment found similar, albeit slightly higher fuel yields and lower costs for the MA pathway, translating to a residual solids selling price of $899/ton for MA versus $1033/ton for MOTU as would be required to support a $2.50/gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) fuel selling price. A variation of the MA pathway including subsequent upgrading of the mixed alcohols to hydrocarbon fuels (MAU) reflected a required solids selling price of $975/ton. Conclusion The slight advantages observed for the MA pathway are partially attributed to a boundary that stops at oxygenated fuels versus fungible drop-in hydrocarbon fuels through a more complex MOTU configuration, with more comparable results obtained for the MAU scenario. In either case, it was shown that an integrated algal biorefinery can be economical through optimal strategies to utilize and valorize all fractions of the biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Soil incubation methods lead to large differences in inferred methane production temperature sensitivity

Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH 4 ) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q 10 value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q 10 values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model ( ecosys ) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH 4 production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH 4 production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH 4 production. CH 4 production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q 10 values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q 10 values of CH 4 production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q 10 values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q 10 value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive models enhance feedstock quality of corn stover via air classification

Feedstock heterogeneity is a fundamental obstacle to cost-competitive biobased products. Agricultural products like corn stover have anatomical components that vary in their chemical composition, mechanical properties, structure, and response to chemical and biological treatments. A technique that can enrich streams in select anatomical fractions would allow a tailored deconstruction approach to increase overall process efficiency. Air classification can be leveraged for such refining, however, fundamental characterization and understanding of the particle properties that underly the physics of air classification are only modestly documented. Here, we determine fundamental particle properties including mass-to-area ratio, drag coefficient, and partition velocity that describe how anatomical tissues of corn stover behave during air classification. In this work, mass-to-area ratios of anatomical tissues vary by nearly two orders of magnitude from 2.3 mg/mm 2 for cob to 0.04 mg/mm 2 for leaf. Drag coefficients of longer, fibrous materials (i.e., rind, husk, and sheath) are shown to correlate with particle area (p-value < 0.001) whereas granular tissues (i.e., cob, pith, and leaf) correlate better with mass-to-area ratio (p-values < 0.001). When compared to experimental observations, a simulated two-stage air classification and size reduction scenario predicts the overall partitioning of anatomical tissues within 15% for pith, husk, rind, and cob tissues. The model predicts an air-classified fraction preferentially enriched in cob (purity = 20%), rind (purity = 74%), and pith (purity = 4.5%) with a mass yield of 47%. Empirical relations for these properties can be used to predict the partitioning of corn stover during air classification based on anatomical type and size.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Agriculture’s Potential Regional Economic Contributions to the United States Economy When Supplying Feedstock to the Bio-Economy

The economic impact of obtaining biomass could become significant to U.S. rural economies via the establishment of a bioeconomy. In 2023, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory provided a road map to obtain over a billion tons of biomass for conversion to bioenergy and other products. Using information from this roadmap, this study estimates the potential positive and negative economic impacts that occur because of land use change, along with increased technological advances. This is achieved by using the input–output model, IMPLAN, and impacting 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis regions in the conterminous United States. Biomass included in the analysis comprises dedicated energy crops, crop residues, and forest residues. The analysis found that managing pastures more intensively could result in releasing land to produce dedicated energy crops on 30.8 million hectares, resulting in the production of 361 million metric tons of biomass. This, coupled with crop residues from barley, corn, oats, sorghum, and wheat (162 million metric tons), plus forest residues (41 million metric tons), provide 564 million dry metric tons of biomass. Assuming the price for biomass in 2023 dollars was USD 77 per dry metric-ton, this additional production results in an economic benefit for the nation of USD 619 billion, an increase from the Business As Is scenario (Baseline) of almost USD 100 billion per year, assuming a mature biomass industry. An additional 700,000 jobs are required to grow, harvest/collect, and transport the biomass material from the land.

ForSEAM↗

Demonstration and technoeconomic analysis of dodecanol production from acetate using metabolically engineered Escherichia coli

In a circular bioeconomy, the one-way conversion of petroleum to chemicals and CO 2 is replaced with processes that reduce CO 2 to energy carriers and useful materials that are returned to CO 2 upon combustion. A circular bioeconomy that relies on photosynthesis to generate sugars as the chief energy carrier and precursor to chemical building blocks has yet to overcome many recalcitrant aspects of plant-based photosynthesis, namely, high feedstock costs, arable land scarcity, food competition, and fertilizer overuse. Acetate is a potential sustainable energy carrier because it can be produced from CO 2 either electrocatalytically or by acetogens via the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway. Here, in this work, we conducted a metabolic engineering study of Escherichia coli 's ability to convert acetate into dodecanol as a model oleochemical product. We performed techno-economic and life cycle analyses to determine break-even points with alternative fossil fuel-based strategies and identified critical process performance parameters for supporting an industrial acetate-based bioprocess. These analyses showed that oleochemical yield is the primary driver of minimum oleochemical selling price and carbon intensity. Therefore, to increase yield on acetate, we deleted the aceBAK operon, which facilitates funneling of acetate into biomass instead of product. We performed additional strain engineering to increase flux towards dodecanol and increase acetate uptake. Finally, we demonstrated increased yield in controlled bioreactors, improving from 13% of the maximum theoretical yield to 37%. Rigorous uncertainty analyses assuming a range of market conditions and future technological performances resulted in 88% and 37% of simulated scenarios having lower carbon intensities than fossil fuel-based routes and lower minimum selling prices than the market price.

Acetate↗

Production of Biocrude in an Advanced Photobioreactor-Based Biorefinery

Algenol Biotech, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Georgia Institute of Technology, Arizona State University, and Reliance Industries formed a team to advance the state of the art in algal biomass production and downstream processing technologies, with the end goal of a sustainable, economically viable biofuel intermediate (BFI, biocrude) product. The project included examination of high value co-product production as a market entry strategy and for enhancing the economics of a biorefinery for BFI production. The project targeted innovations in biology, operations, and engineering. The goals of the project were: BFI productivity greater than 4,000 gal-BFI/acre-yr on an annualized basis; energy efficient innovations in downstream operations resulting in an energy expenditure less than 10% of the BFI energy content and a carbon footprint reduction of more than 60% compared to fossil alternatives; and a comprehensive Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that identifies limiting factors for commercial viability of a photobioreactor (PBR)-based biofuel product. The project achieved the overall objectives. Strain development efforts led to the identification of a strain (Cyanobacterium sp. AB1166) that, relative to the previous best strain (Cyanobacterium sp. AB1), exhibited a ~10% increase in productivity under commercially-relevant cultivation conditions and also resulted in cultures with a >50% reduction in viscosity such that harvesting efficiency was improved; these results represent achievement of key project milestones. Progress was also made at NREL in altering the biochemical composition of algal biomass to improve the yield of BFI produced via HTL. These strain enhancements coupled with improved outdoor cultivation practices, including semi-continuous operation, increased areal biomass productivity by nearly 80% over the established baseline productivity. The annualized productivity achieved (26.8 g/m2-d), paired with HTL conversion yields realized at NREL and RIL (38% ± 2% BFI), translates to 4,100 gal-BFI/acre-yr, exceeding the FY20 BETO goal of 3,700 gal-BFI/acre-yr. Significant progress was also demonstrated in large scale PBR-based production system design, operability, and cost reduction. A 24,000-L production module comprised of 240 interlinked PBRs was constructed and successfully operated outdoors for over one year in Fort Myers, Florida. Aided by a state-of-the-art productivity model, the productivities achieved convincingly demonstrated scalability of laboratory results determined at the mL to L scale to large-scale outdoor operations exceeding 20,000 L. The system was used to cultivate Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina), an industrially-relevant cyanobacterium and source for phycocyanin, an approved blue food colorant that Algenol is developing as a risk reduction strategy for future biofuel projects and as a potential business opportunity. A key project milestone to develop phycocyanin extraction and purification technologies was achieved ahead of schedule, and product samples received positive feedback from potential customers. The production and downstream operations data generated in this project were used to conduct and refine Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments to provide research guidance for reducing the costs and environmental footprint of algal biofuel and co-product manufacturing plants. Several CO 2 supply scenarios for an algal biorefinery were identified as being capable of providing a large (>60%) reduction in carbon footprint in comparison to gasoline. The TEA assessments incorporated detailed comparisons of PBR versus open pond production systems, yielding a 3-fold higher areal productivity for PBRs and suggesting overall production cost parity for the two systems. The progress in this ABY2 project addressed many of the the barriers identified for the Advanced Algal Systems R&D Program and are directly relevant to achieving the established BETO goals associated with large scale biofuel production and cost reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Economic analysis of the benefits to petroleum refiners for low carbon boosted spark ignition biofuels

A refinery modeling framework is developed to estimate the benefits of blending high-quality biofuels directly with refinery gasoline components for attaining a premium grade fuel (also termed as Co-Optima Boosted SI gasoline here). Our results change the paradigm of bio-blendstocks (BBs) being competitors to fossil components, by identifying opportunities for refineries to add value to their product slate, from some favorable BB properties. This potential value can be characterized by calculating the breakeven value (BEV), as defined down below. The proposed modeling framework incorporates extensive data from (1) projected product over the next few decades, (2) crude oil and refinery products pricing, and (3) fuel specifications. The complete refinery models serve as a basis for assessing the value of biofuels, assuming profitability remains the same for representative petroleum refinery configurations. Our assessment showed wide range of variation of biofuels BEV from $\$$20-$\$$120/bbl, within the considered blending level and crude prices. Further, the BEV was correlated with the fuel octane ratings such as octane numbers (research, RON and motor octane numbers, MON) and both antiknock index (AKI, average of RON and MON) and sensitivity (S, difference between RON and MON), with a slightly higher correlation with the sensitivity. However, the expected decrease in gasoline demand for the upcoming years could negatively impact biofuels demand and value, in a business-as-usual scenario. Our analysis also showed a more valuable bio-blendstocks incorporation in smaller refineries since they can enhance the capabilities for producing specialty, high-value fuels/products, and introduce high octane-barrels into otherwise constrained blending operations. Additional implications towards refiners include opportunities to rebalance operations, access to high-value fuel markets, and synchronization with broader transportation industry trends. Furthermore, results indicate the value of Co-Optima boosted spark ignition (BSI) efficiency gains can extend to refiners to incentivize decarbonization and diversified feedstock production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grids

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aims to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies in power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid: Preprint

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aimto meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A probabilistic economic and environmental impact assessment of a cyanobacteria-based biorefinery

Microbial based biofuels represent a potential promising solution as an environmentally favorable transportation fuel. Cyanobacteria have many of the same advantages as microalgae: ability for rapid growth in otherwise non-arable regions, suitability for genetic engineering, and simple nutritional needs. Additionally, cyanobacteria can be engineered to secrete valuable co-products that can be harvested independent from the produced biomass. However, little work has been done to identify the processes and the economic and environmental impacts associated with a large-scale cyanobacteria-to-fuels facility. The present study is a concurrent techno-economic and life cycle assessment of a facility that generates fuels and methyl laurate, an oleochemical, from the cyanobacterial species Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Here, the biorefinery model includes all aspects of cultivation, separation of the secreted methyl laurate, biomass harvesting and fuel processing via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the dewatered biomass. The assessments leverage Monte Carlo analysis (MCA) to address uncertainty and variability inherent in the most significant input parameters, replacing them with probabilistic functions. For the facility configuration producing both fuels and the oleochemical co-product, the MCA average minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) is $\$2.47$ per decimeter (dm 3 ) or $\$9.34$ per gallon of gasoline equivalent (gge) with the corresponding average global warming potential determined to be 118 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . The case producing only fuels results in an MCA average MFSP of $\$2.01$-(dm 3 ) -1 ($\$7.60$-gge -1 ) and an average environmental impact of 100 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . These results are compared to static optimistic and conservative scenario analysis estimates, illustrating the over- and under-estimation of outcomes associated with non-stochastic methods. Suggested facility improvements include increases in pond productivity of both the biomass and methyl laurate oil production, as well as improvements to carbon utilization and bio-crude yield from HTL processing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB)

The Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) has been developed as an integral part of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model to analyze greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use change (LUC) and land management change (LMC) in the context of overall biofuel life-cycle analysis (LCA). CCLUB relies on i) biofuel production scenarios, ii) LUC and LMC scenarios, and iii) emission factors (EF) to generate GHG emissions of LUC and LMC for biofuel production in gram carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per MJ of fuel produced. Figure 1 outlines the calculations and data sources within CCLUB that are described in this document and Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within CCLUB, which is built in Microsoft Excel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Electricity Costs and Carbon Implications for CO 2 -to-Fuels in Selected Locations in 2030

With the growing interest in converting carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to fuels and products to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions and extend carbon from biogenic and other sources, the development of carbon capture and utilization (CO2U) technologies and industry is crucial. The Markets, Resources, and Environmental and Energy Justice of CO 2 -to-Fuels Technologies (short title: MarkeRs & EEJ) project supports this goal by assessing the resource and market potential and infrastructure requirements for mid-term (-2030) and long-term (-2050) deployment of CO2U technologies. The overall project analyzes CO2U economic and resource requirements as well as sustainability and environmental and energy justice (EEJ) metrics. This report focuses on short-term (-2030) aspects of the project. It identifies three CO2U locations in the Midwestern United States and quantifies the costs for potential electricity resources and marginal emissions for each site in the near term (e.g., 2030). We focus on four electricity purchase options, including retail rate, physical power purchase agreement (PPA), financial PPA, and real-time pricing (RTP), for each of the three sites and consider potential policies such as production tax credits (PTCs). We also assess time-dependent hourly marginal electricity costs and the marginal emission rates using modeled scenarios from Cambium (Gagnon et al. 2021).The results of the analysis are expected to inform other projects within the U.S. Department of Energy's CO 2 -to-Fuels Consortium, especially the Economics and Sustainability of CO 2 Utilization Technologies with Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Analysis (TEA/LCA) project, led by Michael Wang of Argonne National Laboratory and Ling Tao of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project results are also expected to inform the investment and technology communities and policymakers at the U.S. Department of Energy, state, and regional levels and guide investment by government and industry in research and development portfolios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Expansion of Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) to Address Induced Land Use Changes and Other Indirect Effects of Clean Fuel Production for R&D GREET ® 2024

Since the late 2000s, biofuel life-cycle analysis (LCA) has included induced land use change (ILUC) and other indirect effects (I-effects) of large-scale feedstock production for biofuels. In ILUC and I-effect emissions modeling, economic models are used to simulate the area of land conversion among different land types and other I-effects such as non-feedstock crop production and livestock production that are driven by the scenarios of biofuel production volume shocks. On the other hand, emission factors (EF) models estimate carbon stock changes and GHG emissions associated with these changes. Finally, the area and type of ILUC and I-effects are combined with the EFs to estimate the biofuel ILUC/I-effect GHG emissions in the unit of grams of CO 2 equivalent per MJ biofuel produced (g CO 2 e/MJ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Algal Biomass Production via Open Pond Algae Farm Cultivation: 2023 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for platform research conducted under the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). It allows for the impact of research progress (both directly achieved in-house at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL] and furnished by partner organizations) to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall biofuel production process for a particular biomass processing pathway, whether based on terrestrial or algal biomass feedstocks. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance, and progress can be tracked toward out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate economically viable biofuel technologies. NREL's algae SOT benchmarking efforts historically focused both on front-end algal biomass production and separately on back-end conversion to fuels through NREL's "combined algae processing" (CAP) pathway. The production model is based on outdoor long-term cultivation data, enabled by comprehensive algal biomass production trials conducted under the Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research (DISCOVR) consortium efforts, driven by data furnished by Arizona State University (ASU) at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) testbed site. The CAP model is based on experimental efforts conducted primarily under NREL research and development projects. This report focuses on front-end algal biomass production, documenting the pertinent algal biomass cultivation parameters that were input to the NREL open pond algae farm model. Through partnerships under DISCOVR, collaborators at ASU furnished details on cultivation performance metrics including biomass productivity and harvest densities for recent growth trials done at the AzCATI site. The resulting biomass productivity was calculated at 16.7 g/m 2 /day (ash-free dry weight [AFDW], annual average) for seasonal cultivation of Picochlorum celeri TG2 and Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM biomass strains at the ASU site. Picochlorum celeri achieved the best productivity from April to September, with Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM being used between October and March. Tetraselmis striata LANL1001, usually part of the strain rotation in previous cultivation SOTs, was supplanted by Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM in this year's outdoor cultivation trials. Finally, building from an industry case study presented in the 2022 SOT report, in the Appendix of this report we provide an update on further improved data furnished by an industry collaborator and resultant impacts on economics reflecting several seasonal scenarios. This case study provides a supplementary datapoint on work being performed elsewhere with a more dedicated focus on improved compositional quality, producing biomass enriched in lipids as may be more optimal for conversion upgrading to fuels and products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Computational Investigation of the Catalytic Hydrodeoxygenation of Propanoic Acid over a Cu(111) Surface

Cu-based alloy catalysts have recently been investigated experimentally for the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of biomass-derived organic acids. Here, the HDO of propanoic acid (PAc) has been studied over Cu(111) by mean-field microkinetic modeling based on parameters obtained from first-principles calculations. Models were developed for the gas- and liquid-phase HDO in condensed water and 1,4-dioxane. In agreement with experimental observations, the gas-phase PAc conversion rate is low at 573 K and increases in liquid water by 1 order of magnitude. In all reaction environments, the decarboxylation mechanism is dominant at low hydrogen partial pressures less than 0.1 bar, and the C–COO bond dissociation is the rate-controlling elementary step. This observation contrasts with the rate-controlling step identified over most group VIII metal surfaces, which is the C–OH bond dissociation in the decarbonylation mechanism. At high hydrogen (H 2 ) partial pressures greater than 10 bar, the HDO of PAc produces propionaldehyde that can readsorb and further react through decarbonylation to produce C 2 alkane products, which is conceptually different from the low H 2 partial pressure scenario. At high H 2 partial pressures, the initial hydrogenation at the carbonyl carbon of PAc becomes the rate-controlling elementary step.

Catalysts↗

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The circular bioeconomy: a driver for system integration

Background: Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results: The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions: Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO 2 , water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗