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At least 145 records · Page 8

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating Electron Temperature and Density Using Van Allen Probe Data: Typical Behavior of Energetic Electrons in the Inner Magnetosphere

Abstract The Earth's inner magnetosphere contains multiple electron populations influenced by different factors. The cold electrons of the plasmasphere, warm plasma that contributes to the ring current, and the relativistic plasma of the radiation belts often seem to behave independently. Using omni‐directional flux and energy measurements from the HOPE and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments aboard the Van Allen Probes, we provide a detailed density and temperature description of the inner magnetosphere, offering a comprehensive statistical analysis of the entire Van Allen Probe era. While number density and temperature data at geosynchronous orbit are available, this study focuses on the warm plasma in the inner magnetosphere . Values of density and temperature are extracted by fitting energy and phase space density to obtain the distribution function. The fitted distributions are related to the zeroth and second moments to estimate the number density and temperature. Analysis has indicated that a two Maxwellian fit is sufficient over a wide range of and that there are two independent plasma populations. The more energetic population has a median number density of approximately and a temperature of around 130 keV, with a temperature peak observed between L * = 4 and L * = 4.5. This population is relatively uniform in magnetic local time (MLT). In contrast, the less energetic warm electron population has a median number density of about and a temperature of 7.4 keV. Strong statistical trends in density and temperature across both L * and MLT are presented, along with potential sources driving these variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Whistler Chorus Amplification in the Magnetosphere: The Nonlinear Free‐Electron Laser Model and the Ginzburg‐Landau Equation

We present a novel nonlinear model for whistler-mode chorus amplification based on the free-electron laser (FEL) mechanism. First, we derive the nonlinear collective variable equations for the whistler-electron interaction. Consistent with in situ satellite observations, these equations predict that a small seed wave can undergo exponential growth, reaching a peak of a few hundred picoteslas after a few milliseconds, followed by millisecond timescale amplitude modulations. Next, we show that when one accounts for multiple wave frequencies and wave spatial variations, the amplitude and phase of the whistler wave can be described by the Ginzburg-Landau equation (GLE), providing a framework for the investigation of solitary wave behavior of chorus modes. These findings enhance our understanding of wave-particle interactions and space weather in the Van Allen radiation belts, deepen the connection between whistler-electron dynamics and FELs, and reveal a novel connection between whistler-mode chorus and the GLE.

Ginsburg-Landau equation↗

Observational evidence for groundwater influence on crop yields in the United States

As climate change shifts crop exposure to dry and wet extremes, a better understanding of factors governing crop response is needed. Recent studies identified shallow groundwater—groundwater within or near the crop rooting zone—as influential, yet existing evidence is largely based on theoretical crop model simulations, indirect or static groundwater data, or small-scale field studies. Here, we use observational satellite yield data and dynamic water table simulations from 1999 to 2018 to provide field-scale evidence for shallow groundwater effects on maize yields across the United States Corn Belt. We identify three lines of evidence supporting groundwater influence: 1) crop model simulations better match observed yields after improvements in groundwater representation; 2) machine learning analysis of observed yields and modeled groundwater levels reveals a subsidy zone between 1.1 and 2.5 m depths, with yield penalties at shallower depths and no effect at deeper depths; and 3) locations with groundwater typically in the subsidy zone display higher yield stability across time. We estimate an average 3.4% yield increase when groundwater levels are at optimum depth, and this effect roughly doubles in dry conditions. Groundwater yield subsidies occur ~35% of years on average across locations, with 75% of the region benefitting in at least 10% of years. Overall, we estimate that groundwater-yield interactions had a net monetary contribution of approximately $10 billion from 1999 to 2018. This study provides empirical evidence for region-wide groundwater yield impacts and further underlines the need for better quantification of groundwater levels and their dynamic responses to short- and long-term weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Theoretical investigation of plasma wave generation by pulsed electron beams in space

Here, we report theoretical calculations of plasma wave generation in the whistler modes and in the extraordinary modes, by pulsed electron beams in a magnetized plasma. The numerical simulations of the wave generation take into account the longitudinal expansion of the electron beam due to the space charge force and the energy spread. The work presented in this article provides predictions for the wave generation performance of the beam plasma interactions experiment (Beam PIE), where pulsed electron beams were produced by a spaceborne radio frequency (RF) linear accelerator. We also theoretically explore the desirable properties of the pulsed electron beam for future space experiments, which will be the next step toward eventually demonstrating the radiation-belt remediation (RBR).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Early glacier advance in New Zealand during the Antarctic Cold Reversal

ABSTRACT Glacial landscapes preserve records of past climate change. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the Late Quaternary provides information about past climate change and context for present‐day glacier response to climate warming. Using 28 beryllium‐10 ( 10 Be) surface exposure dates and snowline reconstructions, we present glacier fluctuations and climate changes for the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Ahuriri River catchment, Southern Alps of New Zealand (44°7′50″S, 169°38′29″E). Prominent terminal and lateral moraine features from the upper right tributary of the Ahuriri River valley have exposure ages of 14.5 ± 0.3, 13.6 ± 0.3 and 12.6 ± 0.2 ka, suggesting retreat of the glacier during the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Maximum elevation of lateral moraines (MELM) and accumulation area ratio (AAR) suggest snowline elevations at these ages were ≤700, ≤630 and ~360 m lower than today, respectively. This equates to air temperatures ≤3.9, ≤3.5 and 2.3 ± 0.7 °C lower than today (1981–2010), assuming no changes in past precipitation. Ice‐sculpted bedrock surfaces bound by a lateral moraine at nearby Canyon Creek have an age of 13.1 ± 0.3 ka, indicating the moraine correlates with those in the Ahuriri upper right tributary. MELM and AAR reconstructions from the Canyon Creek suggest that snowline elevations at 14.5–13.6 ka were ≤500 or ~380 m lower than today, corresponding to air temperatures ≤2.8 or 2.4 ± 0.7 °C lower than the present‐day (1981–2010). Our results provide insight into the structure of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Southern Alps, showing that the largest glacier advance occurred at the start of this interval at c . 14.5 ± 0.3 ka and was followed by gradual retreat. We hypothesize that the early cooling and glacier readvance in New Zealand at the onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal were triggered by a latitudinal shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring microstructures and anisotropies of serpentinites

Serpentine minerals have received a lot of attention because of their unique crystal structures, their wide occurrence in orogenic belts and their potential role in contributing seismic anisotropy in subducting slabs. Several studies have investigated crystal preferred orientation (CPO) in high temperature antigorite serpentinites from Japan, the Alps, Spain, Cuba and Tibet, documenting significant crystal alignment. However, only a limited number of lower grade serpentines have been explored to date. Mainly because of submicroscopic microstructural heterogeneities CPO cannot be measured with conventional methods such as optical microscopy and EBSD. In this study 15 serpentinites from different tectonic settings in California, the Central Alps and Northern Spain have been investigated, mainly with high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction, to quantify bulk crystal alignment. We find that CPO is strong on sheared surfaces of fractured blocks and secondary veins but the bulk of most serpentinite samples, except high-grade recrystallized antigorite serpentinite, show only weak crystal alignment. Correspondingly calculated seismic anisotropy based on CPO is not very significant. This is supported by very heterogeneous microstructures as documented with SEM and TEM analyses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Non-carbonaceous–Carbonaceous Meteorite Dichotomy

The isotopic dichotomy between non-carbonaceous (NC) and carbonaceous (CC) meteorites indicates that meteorite parent bodies derive from two genetically distinct reservoirs, which presumably were located inside (NC) and outside (CC) the orbit of Jupiter and remained isolated from each other for the first few million years of the solar system. Here we review the discovery of the NC–CC dichotomy and its implications for understanding the early history of the solar system, including the formation of Jupiter, the dynamics of terrestrial planet formation, and the origin and nature of Earth’s building blocks. The isotopic difference between the NC and CC reservoirs is probably inherited from the solar system’s parental molecular cloud and has been maintained through the rapid formation of Jupiter that prevented significant exchange of material from inside (NC) and outside (CC) its orbit. The growth and/or migration of Jupiter resulted in inward scattering of CC bodies, which accounts for the co-occurrence of NC and CC bodies in the present-day asteroid belt and the delivery of presumably volatile-rich CC bodies to the growing terrestrial planets. Earth’s primitive mantle, at least for siderophile elements like Mo, has a mixed NC–CC composition, indicating that Earth accreted CC bodies during the final stages of its growth, perhaps through the Moon-forming giant impactor. The late-stage accretion of CC bodies to Earth is sufficient to account for the entire budget of Earth’s water and highly volatile species.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Science of the Van Allen Probes Science Operations Centers

The Van Allen Probes mission operations materialized through a distributed model in which operational responsibility was divided between the Mission Operations Center (MOC) and separate instrument specific SOCs. The sole MOC handled all aspects of telemetering and receiving tasks as well as certain scientifically relevant ancillary tasks. Each instrument science team developed individual instrument specific SOCs proficient in unique capabilities in support of science data acquisition, data processing, instrument performance, and tools for the instrument team scientists. In parallel activities, project scientists took on the task of providing a significant modeling tool base usable by the instrument science teams and the larger scientific community. With a mission as complex as Van Allen Probes, scientific inquiry occurred due to constant and significant collaboration between the SOCs and in concert with the project science team. Planned cross-instrument coordinated observations resulted in critical discoveries during the seven-year mission. Instrument cross-calibration activities elucidated a more seamless set of data products. Specific topics include post-launch changes and enhancements to the SOCs, discussion of coordination activities between the SOCs, SOC specific analysis software, modeling software provided by the Van Allen Probes project, and a section on lessons learned. One of the most significant lessons learned was the importance of the original decision to implement individual team SOCs providing timely and well-documented instrument data for the NASA Van Allen Probes Mission scientists and the larger magnetospheric and radiation belt scientific community.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Can upscaling ground nadir SIF to eddy covariance footprint improve the relationship between SIF and GPP in croplands?

Ground solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is important for the mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of vegetation gross primary production (GPP) at fine spatiotemporal scales. However, eddy covariance (EC) observations generally cover larger footprint areas than ground SIF observations (a bare fiber with nadir), and this footprint mismatch between nadir SIF and GPP could complicate the canopy SIF-GPP relationships. Here, we upscaled nadir SIF observations to EC footprint and investigated the change in SIF-GPP relationships after the upscaling in cropland. We included 13 site-years data in our study, with seven site-years corn, four site-years soybeans, and two site-years miscanthus, all located in the US Corn Belt. All sites’ crop nadir SIF observations collected from the automated FluoSpec2 system (a hemispheric-nadir system) were upscaled to the GPP footprint-based SIF using vegetation indices (VIs) calculated from high spatiotemporal satellite reflectance data. We found that SIF-GPP relationships were not substantially changed after upscaling nadir SIF to GPP footprint at our crop sites planted with corn, soybean, and miscanthus, with R 2 change after the upscaling ranging from -0.007 to 0.051 and root mean square error (RMSE) difference from -0.658 to 0.095 umol m –2 s –1 relative to original nadir SIF-GPP relationships across all the site-years. The variation of the SIF-GPP relationship within each species across different site-years was similar between the original nadir SIF and upscaled SIF. Different VIs, EC footprint models, and satellite data led to marginal differences in the SIF-GPP relationships when upscaling nadir SIF to EC footprint. Furthermore, our study provided a methodological framework to correct this spatial mismatch between ground nadir SIF and GPP observations for croplands and potentially for other ecosystems. Our results also demonstrated that the spatial mismatch between ground nadir SIF and GPP might not significantly affect the SIF-GPP relationship in cropland that are largely homogeneous.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Survey-wide asteroid discovery with a high-performance computing enabled non-linear digital tracking framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. Here, we present a novel method that adapts “digital tracking” – traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images – to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

Asteroid discovery↗

The RAM-SCB model and its applications to advance space weather forecasting

Energetic particle fluxes that are part of the Earth’s ring current and radiation belts can intensify significantly during space weather events like geomagnetic storms and could cause severe damage to satellite-based technologies. Understanding the physical processes that control their dynamics and improving our capability for their prediction is thus extremely important. In the context of space weather applications and user needs, this paper provides a brief description of our kinetic ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) and its further extension to implement a self-consistent electric (E) field. Specific examples that demonstrate RAM-SCB capabilities and limitations to reproduce the near-Earth space weather environment are given. In this paper, the current status of RAM-SCB is assessed and plans for its further improvement are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction

Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects

Growing demand for hydrogen is exposing the environmental and economic limits of reforming-based and carbon-managed supply chains, while the scale-up of electrolytic capacity remains capital-constrained. Geologic hydrogen, defined as molecular H₂ generated and stored within the Earth's crust offers a complementary, potentially lower-cost resource, yet exploration is still ad hoc. This review (1) revisits a global inventory of confirmed hydrogen seeps and subsurface occurrences; (2) analyzes the controlling reactions, migration pathways, and trapping conditions governing these occurrences; (3) proposes a process-based geologic hydrogen system concept analogous to, yet distinct from, the petroleum system; and (4) evaluates potential geologic hydrogen systems within the United States as a representative case study. Here, we contrast natural systems powered by serpentinization, mantle degassing or radiolysis with anthropogenic systems that stimulate the same reactions or convert in-situ hydrocarbons. Stable hydrogen accumulations require generation rates that outpace combined physical, chemical and microbial losses; the Bourakébougou field (Mali) exemplifies a self-recharging, free-gas reservoir sustained by meteoric-water serpentinization beneath an efficient caprock. Prospective geologic hydrogen resources are likely to occur in regions where iron-rich lithologies, deep-seated faults, and low-permeability sealing formations coexist. Applying this principle, we highlight three promising hydrogen play types in U.S. geological terrains: ophiolite belts (Appalachian and Californian regions), the Midcontinent Rift and the Lake Superior banded‑iron formations. Multiphysics numerical models and positive-unlabeled machine-learning workflows help to accelerate play screening and de-risk future production; yet, reaction kinetics, stimulation strategies, and full techno-economic and life-cycle assessments remain pivotal knowledge gaps.

Anthropogenic hydrogen generation↗

Magmatic, hydrothermal and ore element transfer processes of the southeastern Archean Superior Province implied from electrical resistivity structure

Although magmatic- and metamorphic- derived fluids are widely recognized mineralizing agents, the role of crustal architecture in defining source and sink zones within the middle to lower crust and upper mantle of ancient orogens remains enigmatic. The globally largest and best-preserved Archean greenstone belts lie in the Superior Province, Canada. They provide an ideal location to investigate the influence of igneous construction and subsequent syn-deformational plutonism and metamorphism on the localization of metal-rich melts and fluids throughout the crustal column. Integration of three-dimensional magnetotelluric modelling and seismic reflection sections across the Abitibi subprovince reveals details of a 'whole-of-crust' magmatic and hydrothermal system. East-west low resistivity structures broadly underlie the surface traces of the major deformation zones that are host to significant gold endowment (>200 Moz), while mid-crustal cross trends suggest mineralized fluids flowed along 'pipes' within fault planes. Most low resistivity structures are inferred to represent domains containing interconnected zones of graphite and/or sulfide. Furthermore, these delineate relict mantle source/transit domains and crustal pathways enriched by the flow of magmas or metamorphic fluids genetically related to a late-stage pulse of ore-bearing magmatism, possibly as a result of slab break-off or delamination. Using the combined MT and seismic data, we develop a 3-D crustal-scale model which highlights how evolving orogenic architecture-controlled mass transfer and metallogenic processes developed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding Asteroid 16 Psyche’s composition through 3D impact crater modeling

Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest M-type (metallic) Main Belt Asteroid (MBA). Radar albedo data indicate Psyche’s surface is rich in metallic content, but estimates for Psyche’s bulk structure vary widely, with bulk density estimates ranging from 1.4 ± 0.3 g/cm 3 to 4.5 ± 1.4 g/cm 3 and porosity estimates ranging from 30% to 70%. A forthcoming NASA discovery mission will visit Psyche. Narrowing the range of estimated compositions of Psyche prior to mission launch can help to determine the necessary tools for asteroid analysis. Psyche has two large impact structures in its Southern hemisphere, with estimated diameters from 50 km to 70 km and estimated depths up to 6.4 km. In this work, we present results from 2D and 3D hydrocode simulations of the largest of these impact structures. Through quantitative comparison of the simulated crater dimensions with measured values, our models suggest that Psyche is largely composed of porous, metallic material. In addition, to match the crater dimensions, our simulations indicate that the angle of impact was significantly altered from vertical by 45–60 degrees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗