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At least 145 records · Page 8

E-PINNs: Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have demonstrated promise as a framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations. Despite recent progress in the field, it remains challenging to quantify uncertainty in these networks. While techniques such as Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) provide a principled approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty through Bayesian inference, they can be computationally expensive for large-scale applications. In this work, we propose Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks (E-PINNs), a framework that uses a small network, the epinet, to efficiently quantify epistemic uncertainty in PINNs. The proposed approach works as an add-on to existing, pre-trained PINNs with a small computational overhead. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework in various test cases and compare the results with B-PINNs using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) posterior estimation and dropout-equipped PINNs (Dropout-PINNs). In our experiments, E-PINNs achieve calibrated coverage with competitive sharpness at substantially lower cost. We demonstrate that when B-PINNs produce narrower bands, they under-cover in our tests. E-PINNs also show better calibration than Dropout-PINNs in these examples, indicating a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off.

AI for Science↗

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

3D multi-system Bayesian calibration with energy conservation to study rapidity-dependent dynamics of nuclear collisions

Considerable information about the early-stage dynamics of heavy ion collisions is encoded in the rapidity dependence of measurements. To leverage the large amount of experimental data, we perform a systematic analysis using three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of multiple collision systems — large and small, symmetric and asymmetric. Specifically, we perform fully 3D multi-stage hydrodynamic simulations initialized by a parameterized model for rapidity-dependent energy deposition, which we calibrate on the hadron multiplicity and anisotropic flow coefficients. We utilize Bayesian inference to constrain properties of the early- and late-time dynamics of the system, and highlight the impact of enforcing global energy conservation in our 3D model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Source localization for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

The nuclear imaging system at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a crucial diagnostic for determining the geometry of inertial confinement fusion implosions. The geometry is reconstructed from a neutron aperture image via a set of reconstruction algorithms using an iterative Bayesian inference approach. An important step in these reconstruction algorithms is finding the fusion source location within the camera field-of-view. Currently, source localization is achieved via an iterative optimization algorithm. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning approach for source localization. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network to predict source locations given a neutron aperture image. We show that this approach decreases computation time by several orders of magnitude compared to the current optimization-based source localization while achieving similar accuracy on both synthetic data and a collection of recent NIF deuterium–tritium shots.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quantifying bias due to non-Gaussian foregrounds in an optimal reconstruction of CMB lensing and temperature power spectra

We estimate the magnitude of the bias due to non-Gaussian extragalactic foregrounds on the optimal reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential and temperature power spectra. The reconstruction is performed using a Bayesian inference method known as the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE). We apply MUSE to a minimum variance combination of multifrequency maps drawn from the Agora publicly available simulations of the lensed CMB and correlated extragalactic foreground emission. Taking noise levels appropriate to the SPT-3G D1 release, we find non-Gaussian foregrounds may bias the MUSE reconstruction of the lensing potential amplitude at the level of (0.7 ± 0.3)σ when using modes up to ℓ max = 3500. We do not detect a statistically significant bias, finding a value of (-0.4 ± 0.3)σ, when restricted to lower angular multipoles, ℓ max = 3000. This work is a first step toward understanding the impact of extragalactic foregrounds on optimal reconstructions of CMB temperature and lensing potential power spectra.

Statistical sampling techniques↗

Impurity transport study based on measurement of visible wavelength high-n charge exchange transitions at W7-X

Abstract A recently installed high-speed charge exchange diagnostic at the W7-X stellarator has been used to identify several high-n Rydberg emission lines near 500 nm following impurity injections. The wavelengths of observed high-n Rydberg transitions are independent of the impurity species and originate from ions with ionization states ranging from 14+ to 45+ suggesting that this approach can be applied to a variety of heavy impurities. Moreover, little to no passive signal is observed since the high-n energy levels are unlikely to be populated by electron impact excitation. The combination of the newly developed diagnostic and the observation of high-n Rydberg states provides spatially resolved, high-speed measurements of multiple charge states which are analyzed in a Bayesian inference framework to determine both impurity diffusion and convection profiles. Measurements from the 2023 experimental campaign conclusively show high diffusion and an inward pinch in the core, well above predictions by neoclassical theory.

Physics↗

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗

Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R 0 ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25–93% and 65–85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Fast, differentiable, and extensible big bang nucleosynthesis package

Here, we introduce light isotope nucleosynthesis with JAX (LINX), a new differentiable public big bang nucleosynthesis code designed for fast parameter estimation. By leveraging JAX, LINX achieves both speed and differentiability, enabling the use of Bayesian inference, including gradient-based methods. We discuss the formalism used in LINX for rapid primordial elemental abundance predictions and give examples of how LINX can be used. When combined with differentiable cosmic microwave background power spectrum emulators, LINX can be used for joint cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis analyses without requiring extensive computational resources, including on personal hardware.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Two-Step Procedure to Detect Cosmological Gravitational Wave Backgrounds with Next-Generation Terrestrial Gravitational-Wave Detectors

Cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds are an exciting science target for next-generation ground-based detectors, as they encode invaluable information about the primordial Universe. However, any such background is expected to be obscured by the astrophysical foreground from compact-binary coalescences. We propose a novel framework to detect a cosmological gravitational-wave background in the presence of binary black holes and binary neutron star signals with next-generation ground-based detectors, including Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope. Our procedure involves first removing all the individually resolved binary black hole signals by notching them out in the time-frequency domain. Then, we perform joint Bayesian inference on the individually resolved binary neutron star signals, the unresolved binary neutron star foreground, and the cosmological background. For a flat cosmological background, we find that we can claim detection at 5⁢𝜎 level when Ω ref ≥ 2.7 × 10 −12 /$\sqrt{𝑇_{obs}/yr}$, where 𝑇 obs is the observation time (in years), which is within a factor of ≲ 2 from the sensitivity reached in the absence of these astrophysical foregrounds.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Gaussian-process generative model for the QCD equation of state

We develop a generative model for the nuclear matter equation of state at zero net baryon density using the Gaussian process regression method. We impose first-principles theoretical constraints from lattice quantum chromodynamics and hadron resonance gas at high- and low-temperature regions, respectively. By allowing the trained Gaussian process regression model to vary freely near the phase transition region, we generate random smooth crossover equations of state with different speeds of sound that do not rely on specific parametrizations. Here, we explore a collection of experimental observable dependencies on the generated equations of state, which paves the groundwork for future Bayesian inference studies to use experimental measurements from relativistic heavy-ion collisions to constrain the nuclear matter equation of state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact of dark matter on tidal signatures in neutron star mergers with the Einstein Telescope

If dark matter (DM) accumulates inside neutron stars (NS), it changes their internal structure and causes a shift of the tidal deformability from the value predicted by the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). In principle, this shift could be observable in the gravitational-wave (GW) signal of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We investigate the effect of fermionic, noninteracting DM when observing a large number of GW events from DM-admixed BNSs with the precision of the proposed Einstein telescope (ET). Specifically, we study the impact on the recovery of the baryonic EOS and whether DM properties can be constrained. For this purpose, we create event catalogs of BNS mock events with DM fraction up to 1%, from which we reconstruct the posterior uncertainties with the Fisher matrix approach. Using this data, we perform joint Bayesian inference on the baryonic EOS, DM particle mass, and DM particle fraction in each event. Here, our results reveal that when falsely ignoring DM effects, the EOS posterior is biased toward softer EOSs, though the offset is rather small. Further, we find that within our assumptions of our DM model and population, ET will likely not be able to test the presence of DM in BNSs, even when combining many events and adding Cosmic Explorer (CE) to the next-generation detector network. Likewise, the potential constraints on the DM particle mass will remain weak because of degeneracies with the fraction and EOS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cosmological parameter estimation with a joint-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis

Here, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, consistently combining likelihoods and taking into account uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates for the first time. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, 𝑁 eff , using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX , a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find 𝑁 eff =3.0⁢8$^{+0.15}_{−0.14}$, 2.9⁢4$^{+0.16}_{−0.15}$, or 2.96$^{+0.13}_{−0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the lambda cold dark matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗