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Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

operational acceptability↗

Environmental Benefits Assessment of the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests Concept

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions has been a focus area of the scientific community for the past several years. Specifically, the aviation industry has set goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, providing a sustainable transportation mechanism with minimal impacts on the environment. This reduction must be accomplished through several means, including advanced technology, sustainable propulsion, efficient air traffic management, and improved operations. A potential solution for improving operations in an efficient air traffic management system is the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept. The TASAR concept applies onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of route modifications that would be beneficial to the flight, leading to a decrease in direct operating costs through fuel burn reduction and shorter flight times. This report discusses analyses that provide an estimate of the potential environmental benefits that result from the application of the TASAR concept. The data used for this benefits assessment was gathered during an operational evaluation on revenue flights with an airline partner between July 2018 and April 2019. The analyses in this report determined that there are impactful potential environmental benefits to be realized using the TASAR concept.

TASAR, Digital TASAR, 4D TASAR, SATM, Green Aviati↗

Overview of Model-Based Systems Engineering Efforts to Evolve the Airspace Research Roadmap

NASA’s Air Traffic Management-Exploration (ATM-X) UAM Airspace Subproject is conducting research that evolves UAM airspace towards a highly automated and operationally flexible system of the future. The complexity of UAM airspace evolution requires a plan to effectively organize, integrate, and communicate NASA’s research and development. The planning tool, called the UAM airspace research roadmap, or just roadmap, is key to the execution of NASA’s UAM airspace research over the next ten years. Implemented through Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methodology, the roadmap will help to prioritize and coordinate research efforts, and to integrate results that build towards NASA’s research goals of evolving UAM airspace for integration of UAM operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper presents an overview of on-going MBSE efforts to meet these overarching goals.

Model-Based Systems Engineering↗

Overview of Model-Based Systems Engineering Efforts to Evolve the Airspace Research Roadmap

NASA’s Air Traffic Management-Exploration (ATM-X) UAM Airspace Subproject is conducting research that evolves UAM airspace towards a highly automated and operationally flexible system of the future. The complexity of UAM airspace evolution requires a plan to effectively organize, integrate, and communicate NASA’s research and development. The planning tool, called the UAM airspace research roadmap, or just roadmap, is key to the execution of NASA’s UAM airspace research over the next ten years. Implemented through Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methodology, the roadmap will help to prioritize and coordinate research efforts, and to integrate results that build towards NASA’s research goals of evolving UAM airspace for integration of UAM operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper presents an overview of on-going MBSE efforts to meet these overarching goals. Note: Included mp4 video of presentation included in record, runtime 9 mins 57 secs.

Model-Based Systems Engineering↗

Automated Scenario Generation for Meeting Human-in-the-Loop Simulation Requirements

A two-step automated Multi-Aircraft Control System traffic scenario generation process for Human-in-the-Loop evaluations of air traffic management concepts is described. The first step of the two-step process employs the scenario generation capability currently available in NASA's Air Traffic Management Testbed. The second step refines the scenario by filtering flights from the traffic scenario based on route length, cruise speed, cruise altitude, entry time and the desired ratio of internal to external flights. A solution for achieving the desired ratio of internal to external flights, where internal flights are shorter flights and external flights are longer flights based on a distance threshold, is described. Finally, schedulers are described for shaping the hourly arrival traffic count as a function of time in response to airport capacity constraint or for increasing the traffic demand with respect to the available arrival capacity. Results generated for arrival traffic to the four major airports in the New York Metroplex on a busy day using the two-step procedure are discussed. These results show that traffic scenarios for Multi-Aircraft Control System that meet the Human-in-the-Loop and fast-time simulation requirements can be created automatically following the procedures described in the paper. The automated process will improve the accuracy and efficiency by eliminating the tedious manual process for scenario generation.

Automated Scenario Generation↗

Automated Scenario Generation for Meeting Human-In-The-Loop Simulation Requirements

A two-step automated Multi-Aircraft Control System traffic scenario generation process for Human-in-the-Loop evaluations of air traffic management concepts is described. The first step of the two-step process employs the scenario generation capability currently available in NASA's Air Traffic Management Testbed. The second step refines the scenario by filtering flights from the traffic scenario based on route length, cruise speed, cruise altitude, entry time and the desired ratio of internal to external flights. A solution for achieving the desired ratio of internal to external flights, where internal flights are shorter flights and external flights are longer flights based on a distance threshold, is described. Finally, schedulers are described for shaping the hourly arrival traffic count as a function of time in response to airport capacity constraint or for increasing the traffic demand with respect to the available arrival capacity. Results generated for arrival traffic to the four major airports in the New York Metroplex on a busy day using the two-step procedure are discussed. These results show that traffic scenarios for Multi-Aircraft Control System that meet the Human-in-the-Loop and fast-time simulation requirements can be created automatically following the procedures described in the paper. The automated process will improve the accuracy and efficiency by eliminating the tedious manual process for scenario generation.

Automated Scenario Generation↗

UAM Research – X4: Introduction to Community Based Rules (CBRs)

Recent advances in technology have enabled industry development of new and innovative vehicle types, offering lower operating costs and highly automated functionality that facilitates the introduction of new types of operations. These include low-altitude airspace operations with small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs), short distance urban and intercity operations, and high- altitude Upper Class E operations. These and other new operations are expected to result in a much higher operational tempo than is currently experienced across the National Airspace System (NAS). The projected increase in operations, as well as the introduction of new aircraft form factors and supporting technologies—including increasing autonomy—will present challenges to the existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, which is currently unable to cost-effectively scale and deliver needed services. In response to these challenges and opportunities, a highly automated, cooperative environment incorporating a federated network has been envisioned and described through multiple operational concepts, depicting the future operating environment as part of the NAS. Foundational to the success of this future operating environment is the establishment of common business rules and understandings across relevant stakeholders, referred to as Community Based Rules (CBRs). Development, adoption, and implementation of CBRs will require collaboration across multiple stakeholders, including operators, support services (industry), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), to identify and resolve a broad range of questions and challenges. Examples of these questions include “what rules are needed?”, “how are they expressed?”, and “how will they be managed?” This document identifies and describes an initial set of questions and considerations to be examined as efforts begin to create the innovative, automated, cooperative operating environment of the future. The goal is to establish a common frame of reference to support discussions and decisions regarding the future implementation of CBRs as part of the NAS.

Community Based Rules↗

Design of a final approach spacing tool for TRACON air traffic control

This paper describes an automation tool that assists air traffic controllers in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facilities in providing safe and efficient sequencing and spacing of arrival traffic. The automation tool, referred to as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST), allows the controller to interactively choose various levels of automation and advisory information ranging from predicted time errors to speed and heading advisories for controlling time error. FAST also uses a timeline to display current scheduling and sequencing information for all aircraft in the TRACON airspace. FAST combines accurate predictive algorithms and state-of-the-art mouse and graphical interface technology to present advisory information to the controller. Furthermore, FAST exchanges various types of traffic information and communicates with automation tools being developed for the Air Route Traffic Control Center. Thus it is part of an integrated traffic management system for arrival traffic at major terminal areas.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

Initial Field Evaluation of Pilot Procedures for Flying CTAS Descent Clearances

The Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is a new support system that is designed to assist air traffic controllers in the management of arrival traffic. CTAS will provide controllers with more information about current air traffic, enabling them to provide clearances for efficient, conflict-free descents that help achieve an orderly stream of aircraft at the final approach fix. CTAS is a computer-based system that functions as a "ground-based FMS" that can predict flight trajectories and arrival times for all incoming aircraft. CTAS uses an aircraft's cruise airspeed; current air traffic, winds and temperature; performance characteristics of the aircraft type; and individual airline preferences to create a flight profile from cruise altitude to the final approach fix. Controllers can use this flight profile to provide a descent clearance that will allow an aircraft to fly an efficient descent and merge more smoothly with other arriving aircraft. A field test of the CTAS Descent Advisor software was conducted at the Denver Center for aircraft arriving at the Stapleton International Airport from September 12-29. CTAS Descent clearances were given to a NASA flight test aircraft and to 77 airline flights that arrived during low traffic periods. For the airline portion of the field test, cockpit procedures and pilot briefing packages for both FMS equipped and unequipped aircraft were developed in cooperation with an airline. The procedures developed for the FMS equipped aircraft were to fly a VNAV descent at a controller specified speed to cross a metering fix at a specified altitude and speed. For nonFMS aircraft, the clearance also specified a CTAS calculated top-of-descent point. Some CTAS related flight deck issues included how much time was available to the pilots' for compliance, the amount of information that needed to be interpreted in the clearance and possible repercussions of misunderstandings. Data collected during the study ranged from subjective data (including the airline pilots' opinions and comments about the new descent clearances and procedures) to objective data (including observations of aircraft performance from the flight deck). This paper will present data and the resulting changes in the design of the procedures and clearance phraseology.

Palmer, Everett↗

An Exploration of Radiation Physics in Electromagnetics

Contents include the following: NASA's Missions and Aeronautics Research. Today's Air Traffic Control System. Development of Decision-Support Tools. The Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). The Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA). The Surface Management System (SMS). Future Directions: The Joint Planning and Development Office.

Lee, Katherine K.↗

Flight-Management Algorithm for Fuel-Conservative Descents

Federal Aviation Administration has developed an automated time-based metering form of air traffic control for arrivals into terminal area called local flow management/profile descent (LFM/PD). LFM/PD saves fuel by matching airplane arrival flow to airport acceptance rate through time-control computations and by allowing pilot to descend at his discretion from cruise altitude to metering fix in an idle-thrust, clean configuration (landing gear up, flaps zero, speed brakes retracted).

Knox, C. E.↗

Report of the workshop on Aviation Safety/Automation Program

As part of NASA's responsibility to encourage and facilitate active exchange of information and ideas among members of the aviation community, an Aviation Safety/Automation workshop was organized and sponsored by the Flight Management Division of NASA Langley Research Center. The one-day workshop was held on October 10, 1989, at the Sheraton Beach Inn and Conference Center in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Participants were invited from industry, government, and universities to discuss critical questions and issues concerning the rapid introduction and utilization of advanced computer-based technology into the flight deck and air traffic controller workstation environments. The workshop was attended by approximately 30 discipline experts, automation and human factors researchers, and research and development managers. The goal of the workshop was to address major issues identified by the NASA Aviation Safety/Automation Program. Here, the results of the workshop are documented. The ideas, thoughts, and concepts were developed by the workshop participants. The findings, however, have been synthesized into a final report primarily by the NASA researchers.

Morello, Samuel A.↗

Management by Trajectory: Improving Predictability for Airspace Operations

In the present-day National Airspace System, the air traffic management system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, gaps in trajectory data and models, coupled with tactical control actions that are not communicated to automation systems or other stakeholders, lead to trajectory predictions that are less accurate than they could be. This affects traffic flow management performance. Management by Trajectory (MBT) is a NASA concept for air traffic management in which every flight operates in accordance with a 4D trajectory that is negotiated between the airspace user and the FAA to account for the airspace user’s goals while complying with NAS constraints. The primary benefit of MBT is an improvement in system performance due to increased trajectory predictability and stability, which result from managing traffic in all four dimensions (2D route, vertical, and time), ensuring that changes to the flight’s trajectory are incorporated into the assigned trajectory, and utilizing improved time or arrival control standards. Importantly, the performance improvements support increasing efficiency without increasing collision risk. This paper provides an overview of MBT and describes fast-time simulation results evaluating the safety, performance, and efficiency effects of MBT.

Fernandes, Alicia B.↗

Usability Evaluation of Fleet Management Interface for High Density Vertiplex Environments

To meet the rising demand for an Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) (i.e. urban and rural unmanned aircraft systems) ecosystem, the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) is hosting a series of simulations and flight tests under the High Density Vertiplex sub-project (HDV) to prototype and study the effectiveness AAM capabilities under various operational contexts. HDV aims to develop an integrated automation architecture to support terminal area flight operations. The HDV simulations and flight tests address safety, integration, and operational challenges, while integrated systems and software demonstrate design readiness, robustness, and interoperability. During the initial HDV simulation in 2021, a prototype traffic management tool developed by NASA called the Fleet Management Interface (FMI) was tested. FMI was designed to introduce an advanced level of human-automation interaction to aid both Ground Control Station Operators (GCSOs) and Fleet Managers (FMs) in remotely managing flights under their ownership. In a human-in-the-loop simulation, a usability study was conducted with the FMI to identify optimal approaches for displaying information to human operators using subjective measures of usability, workload, situation awareness, risk, and trust, along with qualitative feedback. This study consisted of task analysis in which GCSO and FM subjects used an Urban Air Mobility (UAM) environment to develop and execute a plan for two different traffic scenarios of remotely controlled vehicles. In each scenario, a remotely controlled vehicle completed a takeoff, active flight, and landing sequence while simulated traffic flew in the background at a rate of 20 operations per hour. In the first scenario, the controlled vehicle flew a nominal route with takeoff and landing at the same vertiport. In the second scenario, the controlled vehicle started on the nominal route, then diverted to an unplanned location mid-flight. Results showed that self- reported performance, usability, trust, and situation awareness ratings of FMI were moderately to strongly high. There were small differences between scenarios, with Scenario 2 being perceived as more unstable, complex, variable, risky, and potentially harmful than Scenario 1. Furthermore, participants described improvements that could be made to create a better user experience. For example, users suggested customizable interfaces to accommodate information display preferences, and the ability to review routes before assigning them. The results from this study will inform future development of the FMI with the end goal of creating a reference automation tool for airspace management procedures in AAM. The FMI could serve to reduce dependency on traditional air navigation services through increased automation in high density vertiplex environments.

Fleet manager↗

Integrating the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) in CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer

The Center-Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Automation System (CTAS), developed at NASA Ames Research Center for assisting controllers in the management and control of air traffic in the extended terminal area, supports the modeling of more than four hundred aircraft types. However, 90% of them are supported indirectly by mapping them to one of a relatively few aircraft types for which CTAS has detailed drag and engine thrust models. On the other hand, the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA), developed and maintained by Eurocontrol, supports more than 300 aircraft types, about one third of which are directly supported, i.e. they have validated performance data. All these data were made available for CTAS by integrating BADA version 3.8 into CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer (TS). Several validation tools were developed and used to validate the integrated code and to evaluate the accuracy of trajectory predictions generated using CTAS "native" and BADA Aircraft Performance Models (APM) comparing them with radar track data. Results of these comparisons indicate that the two models have different strengths and weaknesses. The BADA APM can improve the accuracy of CTAS predictions at least for some aircraft types, especially small aircraft, and for some flight phases, especially climb.

Abramson, Michael↗

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Airspace safety must be assured for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) to become reality. Emerging operations need to safely integrate with existing and future air traffic. UAM is anticipated to evolve in stages. Early stages, characterized by low-density operations, may be accommodated by traditional air traffic management approaches. However, to enable the scale of UAM operations necessary to reach ubiquitous integration into daily life, new paradigms that utilize collaborative and automated systems are being considered. Correspondingly, traditional approaches for determining a safe number of simultaneous operations in an airspace must be adapted to suit evolving traffic management paradigms. In this paper, we examine dynamic density as an approach to determine when an airspace is excessively populated, and safety may become compromised. We review previous work on dynamic density as it relates to air traffic controller workload and propose factors that may be more fitting for UAMs. Rather than considering controller workload, we propose factors that suggest increased likelihood of loss of separation and may lead to conflicts that require tactical avoidance maneuvers. In addition to monitoring dynamic density for tactical decision making, we endeavor to predict airspace dynamic density with adequate look-ahead to allow for strategic route selection.

UAM↗

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

Current Safety Nets Within the U.S. National Airspace System

There are over 70,000 flights managed per day in the National Airspace System, with approximately 7,000 aircraft in the air over the United States at any given time. Operators of each of these flights would prefer to fly a user-defined “4D” trajectory (4DT), which includes arrival and departure times; preferred gates and runways at the airport; efficient, wind-optimal routes for departure, cruise and arrival phase of flight; and fuel efficient altitude profiles. To demonstrate the magnitude of this achievement a single flight from Los Angeles to Baltimore, accesses over 35 shared or “constrained” resources that are managed by roughly 30 air traffic controllers (at towers, approach control and en route sectors); along with traffic managers at 12 facilities, using over 22 different, independent automation system (including TBFM, ERAM, STARS, ASDE-X, FSM, TSD, GPWS, TCAS, etc.). In addition, dispatchers, ramp controllers and others utilize even more systems to manage each flight’s access to operator-managed resources. Flying an ideal 4DT requires successful coordination of all flight constraints among all flights, facilities, operators, pilots and controllers. Additionally, when conditions in the NAS change, the trajectories of one or more aircraft may need to be revised to avoid loss of flight efficiency, predictability, separation or system throughput. The Aviation Safety Network has released the 2016 airliner accident statistics showing a very low total of 19 fatal airliner accidents, resulting in 325 fatalities1. Despite several high profile accidents, the year 2016 turned out to be a very safe year for commercial aviation, Aviation Safety Network data show. Over the year 2016 the Aviation Safety Network recorded a total of 19 fatal airliner accidents [1], resulting in 325 fatalities. This makes 2016 the second safest year ever, both by number of fatal accidents as well as in terms of fatalities. In 2015 ASN recorded 16 accidents while in 2013 a total of 265 lives were lost. How can we keep it that way and not upset the apple cart by premature insertion of innovative technologies, functions, and procedures? In aviation, safety nets function as the last system defense against incidents and accidents. Current ground-based and airborne safety nets are well established and development to make them more efficient and reliable continues. Additionally, future air traffic control safety nets may emerge from new operational concepts.

Smith, Brian E.↗