Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Architecture Identification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Domain Aware Deep-learning Algorithms Integrated with Scientific-computing Technologies (DADAIST)

This technical report summarized the contribution of the DADAIST project funded by the Data Model Convergence Initiative via the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) investments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Specifically, we report the development of the NeuroMANCER (Neural Modules with Adaptive Nonlinear Constraints and Efficient Regularizations), a new open-source Scientific Machine Learning library for formulating and solving parametric constrained optimization problems, physics-informed system identification, and parametric optimal control problems. NeuroMANCER is using differentiable programming to combine modern data-driven models and optimization modeling language into a coherent algorithmic and software framework. NeuroMANCER is a Pytorch-based framework and adopts much of its philosophy focused on research and development, rapid prototyping, and streamlined deployment. Strong emphasis is given to extensibility, interoperability with the PyTorch ecosystem, and quick adaptability to custom domain problems. Neuromancer repository contains a comprehensive library of differentiable modules, including custom activation functions, matrix factorizations, deep learning architectures, neural differential equations, differential equation solvers, implicit layers such as iterative solvers, high-level API for symbolic expressions, API for modeling and control of dynamical systems, and extensive set of tutorial code examples in the form of python scripts and jupyter notebooks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

DOE Repository Metadata Profile (DRMP): A Metadata Framework for Advancing Interoperability and AI Readiness Across Scientific Repositories

The Department of Energy (DOE) funds a diverse and distributed ecosystem of repositories that steward scientific data, publications, and software across its research programs, user facilities, and national laboratories. While significant progress has been made in standardizing dataset-level metadata, the metadata describing repositories themselves (their identity, governance, access interfaces, policies, and technical capabilities) remains inconsistent and fragmented across DOE-funded systems. This variability limits discoverability, interoperability, automated validation, and AI-driven analysis, all of which are increasingly essential for modern scientific workflows. To address this gap, the DOE Data Curation Working Group (DCWG) developed the DOE Repository Metadata Profile (DRMP). The DRMP is a practical, community-driven framework that defines how repositories can describe themselves in a consistent, machine-actionable, and scalable manner. The DRMP is not a new metadata schema. Instead, it is a mapping profile and structured element set capturing the essential characteristics of DOE repositories. It harmonizes repository-level metadata across six widely adopted community schemas: RE3Data; DCAT-US v3; Schema.org; Dublin Core; DataCite 4.6; and PREMIS 3.0. This harmonization eliminates reinvention and enables interoperability within DOE and across the broader scientific ecosystem. A core objective of the DRMP is to reduce burden on repositories by allowing them to reuse their existing metadata through a Rosetta-style crosswalk rather than redesigning local implementations. The profile introduces a three-level conformance model that supports incremental adoption: • Level 1 – Minimum Viable Record (MVR): foundational identification elements required for workflows, project registration, and basic repository presence. • Level 2 – Interoperable: structured metadata enabling alignment with national and international discovery systems. • Level 3 – AI-Ready: enhanced provenance, policy transparency, fixity, semantic context, and capabilities that support automated reasoning, model training governance, and machine-assisted curation. To support implementation, the DRMP includes JSON Schema definitions, OpenAPI patterns, and MCP templates that allow repositories to publish machine-readable metadata directly within existing platforms. These resources are modular and lightweight, enabling adoption without major architectural change. Adopting the DRMP enables repositories to: • Enhance discoverability and interoperability by aligning identifiers, classifications, and descriptive elements across widely used schema standards. • Support federated discovery and cross-registration across DOE systems, Data.gov, and international catalogs. • Enable AI agents and workflow orchestration systems to interpret repository-level metadata within the American Science Cloud (AmSC) through Model Context Protocol (MCP)-based context publication. • Demonstrate alignment with DOE’s open science, stewardship, and FAIR data priorities. This guidance represents a community-driven step forward. Through voluntary adoption and continued feedback, the DRMP advances a cohesive, machine-actionable description of DOE repositories that supports FAIR data practices, preparing the infrastructure for AI-enabled research, and strengthening the discoverability and reuse of DOE’s scientific outputs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Comparison of Object Detection Networks for Shrapnel Identification in Ultrasound Images

Ultrasound imaging is a critical tool for triaging and diagnosing subjects but only if images can be properly interpreted. Unfortunately, in remote or military medicine situations, the expertise to interpret images can be lacking. Machine-learning image interpretation models that are explainable to the end user and deployable in real time with ultrasound equipment have the potential to solve this problem. We have previously shown how a YOLOv3 (You Only Look Once) object detection algorithm can be used for tracking shrapnel, artery, vein, and nerve fiber bundle features in a tissue phantom. However, real-time implementation of an object detection model requires optimizing model inference time. Here, we compare the performance of five different object detection deep-learning models with varying architectures and trainable parameters to determine which model is most suitable for this shrapnel-tracking ultrasound image application. We used a dataset of more than 16,000 ultrasound images from gelatin tissue phantoms containing artery, vein, nerve fiber, and shrapnel features for training and evaluating each model. Every object detection model surpassed 0.85 mean average precision except for the detection transformer model. Overall, the YOLOv7tiny model had the higher mean average precision and quickest inference time, making it the obvious model choice for this ultrasound imaging application. Other object detection models were overfitting the data as was determined by lower testing performance compared with higher training performance. In summary, the YOLOv7tiny object detection model had the best mean average precision and inference time and was selected as optimal for this application. Next steps will implement this object detection algorithm for real-time applications, an important next step in translating AI models for emergency and military medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scientific machine learning benchmarks

Deep learning has transformed the use of machine learning technologies for the analysis of large experimental datasets. In science, such datasets are typically generated by large-scale experimental facilities, and machine learning focuses on the identification of patterns, trends and anomalies to extract meaningful scientific insights from the data. In upcoming experimental facilities, such as the Extreme Photonics Application Centre (EPAC) in the UK or the international Square Kilometre Array (SKA), the rate of data generation and the scale of data volumes will increasingly require the use of more automated data analysis. Furthermore, at present, identifying the most appropriate machine learning algorithm for the analysis of any given scientific dataset is a challenge due to the potential applicability of many different machine learning frameworks, computer architectures and machine learning models. Historically, for modelling and simulation on high-performance computing systems, these issues have been addressed through benchmarking computer applications, algorithms and architectures. Extending such a benchmarking approach and identifying metrics for the application of machine learning methods to open, curated scientific datasets is a new challenge for both scientists and computer scientists. Here, we introduce the concept of machine learning benchmarks for science and review existing approaches. As an example, we describe the SciMLBench suite of scientific machine learning benchmarks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Merger identification through photometric bands, colours, and their errors

Aims. We present the application of a fully connected neural network (NN) for galaxy merger identification using exclusively photometric information. Our purpose is not only to test the method’s efficiency, but also to understand what merger properties the NN can learn and what their physical interpretation is. Methods. We created a class-balanced training dataset of 5860 galaxies split into mergers and non-mergers. The galaxy observations came from SDSS DR6 and were visually identified in Galaxy Zoo. The 2930 mergers were selected from known SDSS mergers and the respective non-mergers were the closest match in both redshift and r magnitude. The NN architecture was built by testing a different number of layers with different sizes and variations of the dropout rate. We compared input spaces constructed using: the five SDSS filters: u, g, r, i, and z; combinations of bands, colours, and their errors; six magnitude types; and variations of input normalization. Results. We find that the fibre magnitude errors contribute the most to the training accuracy. Studying the parameters from which they are calculated, we show that the input space built from the sky error background in the five SDSS bands alone leads to 92.64 ± 0.15% training accuracy. We also find that the input normalization, that is to say, how the data are presented to the NN, has a significant effect on the training performance. Conclusions. We conclude that, from all the SDSS photometric information, the sky error background is the most sensitive to merging processes. This finding is supported by an analysis of its five-band feature space by means of data visualization. Moreover, studying the plane of the g and r sky error bands shows that a decision boundary line is enough to achieve an accuracy of 91.59%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of Open-Source URBANopt and Dragonfly Energy Modeling Capabilities into Practitioner Workflows for District-Scale Planning and Design

High-performance districts and communities offer opportunities for reducing energy use, emissions, and costs, and can be instrumental in helping cities achieve their climate goals. The design of such communities requires identification of opportunities early on and their re-evaluation throughout the planning process. There is a need for energy modeling tools that connect 3D Computer-Aided Design (CAD) platforms to simulation engines, enabling detailed energy analysis of districts within the workflows and tools used by practitioners. This paper introduces the Dragonfly and URBANoptTM combined toolset that supports the creation of urban models from a range of geometry formats typically used by designers and planners, and provides an integrated pathway to simulate district-scale energy systems. The toolset is piloted by a global architecture and master planning firm to evaluate several key urban-scale technical questions for the design of a district in Chicago. The findings indicate that, while energy savings can be achieved through traditional architectural studies and enhancements to individual building efficiency, the modeling toolset helps identify additional savings and insights that can be achieved when considering district-scale energy systems. Finally, this study demonstrates how the Dragonfly/URBANopt toolset can integrate with master planning workflows, thereby enabling an iterative performance-based design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding the protein–ligand interactions using parallel graph neural networks

Abstract Protein–ligand interactions (PLIs) are essential for biochemical functionality and their identification is crucial for estimating biophysical properties for rational therapeutic design. Currently, experimental characterization of these properties is the most accurate method, however, this is very time-consuming and labor-intensive. A number of computational methods have been developed in this context but most of the existing PLI prediction heavily depends on 2D protein sequence data. Here, we present a novel parallel graph neural network (GNN) to integrate knowledge representation and reasoning for PLI prediction to perform deep learning guided by expert knowledge and informed by 3D structural data. We develop two distinct GNN architectures: $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{F}}$$ GNN F is the base implementation that employs distinct featurization to enhance domain-awareness, while $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{P}}$$ GNN P is a novel implementation that can predict with no prior knowledge of the intermolecular interactions. The comprehensive evaluation demonstrated that GNN can successfully capture the binary interactions between ligand and protein’s 3D structure with 0.979 test accuracy for $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{F}}$$ GNN F and 0.958 for $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{P}}$$ GNN P for predicting activity of a protein–ligand complex. These models are further adapted for regression tasks to predict experimental binding affinities and $$\hbox {pIC}_{\mathrm{50}}$$ pIC 50 crucial for compound’s potency and efficacy. We achieve a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.66 and 0.65 on experimental affinity and 0.50 and 0.51 on $$\hbox {pIC}_{\mathrm{50}}$$ pIC 50 with $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{F}}$$ GNN F and $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{P}}$$ GNN P , respectively, outperforming similar 2D sequence based models. Our method can serve as an interpretable and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) tool for predicted activity, potency, and biophysical properties of lead candidates. To this end, we show the utility of $$\hbox {GNN}_{\mathrm{P}}$$ GNN P on SARS-Cov-2 protein targets by screening a large compound library and comparing the prediction with the experimentally measured data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dissecting the Genetic Architecture of Carbon Partitioning in Sorghum Using Multiscale Phenotypes

Carbon partitioning in plants may be viewed as a dynamic process composed of the many interactions between sources and sinks. The accumulation and distribution of fixed carbon is not dictated simply by the sink strength and number but is dependent upon the source, pathways, and interactions of the system. As such, the study of carbon partitioning through perturbations to the system or through focus on individual traits may fail to produce actionable developments or a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this complex process. Using the recently published sorghum carbon-partitioning panel, we collected both macroscale phenotypic characteristics such as plant height, above-ground biomass, and dry weight along with microscale compositional traits to deconvolute the carbon-partitioning pathways in this multipurpose crop. Multivariate analyses of traits resulted in the identification of numerous loci associated with several distinct carbon-partitioning traits, which putatively regulate sugar content, manganese homeostasis, and nitrate transportation. Using a multivariate adaptive shrinkage approach, we identified several loci associated with multiple traits suggesting that pleiotropic and/or interactive effects may positively influence multiple carbon-partitioning traits, or these overlaps may represent molecular switches mediating basal carbon allocating or partitioning networks. Conversely, we also identify a carbon tradeoff where reduced lignin content is associated with increased sugar content. The results presented here support previous studies demonstrating the convoluted nature of carbon partitioning in sorghum and emphasize the importance of taking a holistic approach to the study of carbon partitioning by utilizing multiscale phenotypes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Breakthrough Listen Search for Intelligent Life: Searching for Technosignatures in Observations of TESS Targets of Interest

Exoplanetary systems are prime targets for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). With the recent uptick in the identification of candidate and confirmed exoplanets through the work of missions like the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we are beginning to understand that Earth-like planets are common. In this work, we extend the Breakthrough Listen (BL) search for extraterrestrial intelligence to include targeted searches of stars identified by TESS as potential exoplanet hosts. We report on 113 30 minute cadence observations collected for 28 targets selected from the TESS Input Catalog from among those identified as containing signatures of transiting planets. The targets were searched for narrowband signals from 1 to 11 GHz using the turboSETI pipeline architecture modified for compatibility with the Google Cloud environment. Data were searched for drift rates of ±4 Hz s{sup −1} above a minimum signal-to-noise threshold of 10, following the parameters of previous searches conducted by Price et al. and Enriquez et al. The observations presented in this work establish some of the deepest limits to date over such a wide band (1–11 GHz) for life beyond Earth. We determine that fewer than 12.72% of the observed targets possess transmitters operating at these frequencies with an equivalent isotropic radiated power greater than our derived threshold of 4.9×10{sup 14} W.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Malcolm Deployment Guide for Solar Power Generation Plants

This guide provides detailed instructions for deploying Malcolm in Solar Power Generation systems. It covers the deployment process, from understanding the network architecture of these systems to configuring network switches and Switched Port Analyzer (SPAN) ports or mirror ports or TAPs. The guide also includes best practices for deploying Hedgehog sensors, another critical component in these systems. Following this guide, users can enhance network visibility, improve their system’s security, and effectively troubleshoot common issues.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Dynamic Force Coefficients for an Additively Manufactured Hermetic Squeeze Film Bearing Support Damper Utilizing a Pass-Through Channel

Abstract The following paper presents breakthrough experimental results for a new hermetic squeeze film damper (HSFD) concept that is integrally designed within an externally pressurized tilting-pad radial gas bearing support. The flexibly damped gas bearing module was designed for a 7.2″ (183 mm) diameter shaft and fabricated using direct metal laser melting (DMLM); also known as additive manufacturing. The bearing and HSFD were sized based on ongoing studies for oil-free supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power turbines in the 8.5 MW–10 MW power range. The development of the new damper concept was motivated by past dynamic testing on HSFD, which generated frequency-dependent stiffness and damping force coefficients. In efforts to eliminate the frequency dependency, a new HSFD architecture was conceived that adds accumulator volumes and a pass-through channel to previously conceived HSFD flow network designs. The other motivation for the work is the need to develop a cost-effective and reliable oil-free bearing technology that is scalable to large power turbomachinery applications. There were several objectives for the following work. The first objective was to successfully design and fabricate a single piece bearing-damper using additive manufacturing, while dimensionally controlling critical design features. The paper discusses the manufacturing steps and shows cut-ups that reveal adequate clearance control capability with internal damper clearances. The second objective was to perform experimental testing with the new HSFD design in efforts to extract stiffness and damping coefficients for excitation frequencies within 20–160 Hz and peak vibration amplitudes between 0.25 mils (6.35 microns) to 1 mil (25.4 microns). The test results for a single HSFD bearing module indicated that the design modifications to the HSFD architecture were successful in eliminating nearly all the frequency dependencies for the stiffness force coefficient. The dynamic tests yielded a stiffness coefficient that varied between 112 klb/in. (19.6 MN/m) and 96 klb/in. (16.8 MN/m). The damping force coefficient however, exhibited relatively more variation with frequency with values residing between 175 lb-s/in. (31 kN-s/m) to 214 lb-s/in. (37 kN-s/m). Finally, the paper advances a three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model using transient finite element analysis (FEA) coupled to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The FSI analysis performed between 20 Hz and 80 Hz was used to predict the stiffness and damping of the HSFD using a quarter-section model of the damper. The FSI analysis was able to support test results by showing only a 6–7.4% change in the magnitude of force coefficients. Stiffness predictions agree reasonably well with experiments whereas damping is underpredicted.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancements supporting IC usage of PEM libraries on next-gen platforms

This milestone reports on the culmination of several years of effort by multiple PEM support software development teams to provide capabilities for use in LLNL-developed integrated codes on next-gen ASC platforms, including GPU support. We will provide a survey of relevant Application Program Interfaces (API) that are required to support LLNL IC code capability on relevant architectures, with a focus on Sierra and El Capitan. We will identify and summarize all dependencies between PEM supported libraries and IC supported physics codes. We will provide an assessment of algorithmic improvements that have been deployed, as well as future developments that are required to complete the GPU porting efforts. This assessment will include a description of programming models adopted by each of the PEM projects, distinct algorithmic challenges for each of the capabilities, and information about sharing GPU memory between the APIs and host codes. We will develop targeted test problems to assess computational performance. Finally, this milestone will result in identification of gaps in our effort to assist the LLNL ASC program in prioritization of effort for porting software to El Capitan.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-Dimensional Mapping of Resistivity and Microstructure of Composite Electrodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Nanoparticle silicon–graphite composite electrodes are a viable way to advance the cycle life and energy density of lithium-ion batteries. However, characterization of composite electrode architectures is complicated by the heterogeneous mixture of electrode components and nanoscale diameter of particles, which falls beneath the lateral and depth resolution of most laboratory-based instruments. In this work, we report an original laboratory-based scanning probe microscopy approach to investigate composite electrode microstructures with nanometer-scale resolution via contrast in the electronic properties of electrode components. Applying this technique to silicon-based composite anodes demonstrates that graphite, SiOx nanoparticles, carbon black, and LiPAA binder are all readily distinguished by their intrinsic electronic properties, with measured electronic resistivity closely matching their known material properties. Resolution is demonstrated by identification of individual nanoparticles as small as ~20 nm. Our technique presents future utility in multiscale characterization to better understand particle dispersion, localized lithiation, and degradation processes in composite electrodes for lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep graph representations embed network information for robust disease marker identification

We report that the accurate disease diagnosis and prognosis based on omics data rely on the effective identification of robust prognostic and diagnostic markers that reflect the states of the biological processes underlying the disease pathogenesis and progression. In this article, we present GCNCC, a Graph Convolutional Network-based approach for Clustering and Classification, that can identify highly effective and robust network-based disease markers. Based on a geometric deep learning framework, GCNCC learns deep network representations by integrating gene expression data with protein interaction data to identify highly reproducible markers with consistently accurate prediction performance across independent datasets possibly from different platforms. GCNCC identifies these markers by clustering the nodes in the protein interaction network based on latent similarity measures learned by the deep architecture of a graph convolutional network, followed by a supervised feature selection procedure that extracts clusters that are highly predictive of the disease state. By benchmarking GCNCC based on independent datasets from different diseases (psychiatric disorder and cancer) and different platforms (microarray and RNA-seq), we show that GCNCC outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unraveling the mechanism of tip-enhanced molecular energy transfer

Electronic Energy Transfer (EET) between chromophores is fundamental in many natural light-harvesting complexes, serving as a critical step for solar energy funneling in photosynthetic plants and bacteria. The complicated role of the environment in mediating this process in natural architectures has been addressed by recent scanning tunneling microscope experiments involving EET between two molecules supported on a solid substrate. These measurements demonstrated that EET in such conditions has peculiar features, such as a steep dependence on the donor-acceptor distance, reminiscent of a short-range mechanism more than of a Förster-like process. By using state of the art hybrid ab initio/electromagnetic modeling, here we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of tip-enhanced EET. In particular, we show that this process can be understood as a complex interplay of electromagnetic-based molecular plasmonic processes, whose result may effectively mimic short range effects. Therefore, the established identification of an exponential decay with Dexter-like effects does not hold for tip-enhanced EET, and accurate electromagnetic modeling is needed to identify the EET mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Braxton Marlatt Intern Poster

The Internet of Things (IoT) encompasses a vast network of interconnected devices embedded with software, sensors, and network connectivity, enabling data collection and exchange. While IoT technology revolutionizes various industries, it also introduces significant security challenges. This research focuses on enhancing IoT security through the implementation of Zero Trust Architecture concepts, specifically targeting the Network and Device pillars of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Zero Trust Maturity Model. By generating Codified Attack Surfaces (CAS) using custom Structured Threat Information eXpression bundles, this project aims to provide enhanced visibility into network communications, detect vulnerabilities in device firmware, and improve the overall security posture for IoT devices and networks. The methodology involves defining custom STIX schema and objects, collecting data from intra-IoT traffic, external network traffic, and firmware analysis, and automating the conversion and correlation of this data into STIX bundles. The automated generation of attack surfaces offers comprehensive insights into activity, vulnerabilities, and anomalies within an IoT environment, enabling proactive threat identification and mitigation.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗