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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicle Charging Demand in the Chicago Metropolitan Area through 2030

This report outlines the collaborative efforts between Argonne National Laboratory and Exelon in advancing the Agent-Based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM). Aligning with ComEd’s beneficial electrification plan, this study developed eight scenarios to access the temporal and spatial distribution of charging load and demand stemming from the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV) adoption, augmented public charging infrastructure deployment, and increased multi-unit dwelling (MUD) charging availability. Enhancements to the ATEAM model encompassed the simulation of multiple days of travel behavior, estimation of total public charging infrastructure needs, user interface refinements, and output tracking at both vehicle and charging station levels. The total electricity consumption for residential and public charging to support over 800,000 BEVs in Chicago in 2029 is projected at approximately 10.2 GWh. Enhanced MUD home charging accessibility (70%) amplifies the home charging load in the study area by 1.5% compared to the baseline scenario (10%). The widespread adoption of BEVs reduces peak charging loads, owing to their inclusion across households with diverse income levels, thus fostering a more dispersed charging activity pattern. However, widespread BEV adoption increases the peak home charging load in areas with lower median household incomes, reflecting a higher BEV concentration in these locales and, subsequently, heightened peak charging demands. In the Widespread BEV adoption scenario, fewer census tracts exhibit elevated peak loads for combined home and public charging, indicating a more even distribution of charging demand across the study area. Predominantly, peak loads for combined charging—both home and public— occur between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. across all scenarios, encompassing the majority of census tracts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Filling the cellulosic bio-economy gap by utilizing a wedge approach combined with stakeholder collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. Here, the role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Study of wrap mode impact on Pseudomonas aeruginosa motion in the chemotactic field of fungi

An agent-based discrete computational model biologically calibrated to Pseudomonas aeruginosa migration is used to explore the impacts of bacterial reversals and wrap mode on the efficiency of motion in different environments, both with and without chemotaxis. It is first shown that wrap mode increases the exploration of continuous multimodal chemotactic profiles such as those produced by biologically relevant fungal networks. For cells undergoing a run-reverse pattern, it is shown that the bacteria are likely to remain at the first local chemoattractant maximal production site on a hypha they find. However, with wrap mode, the bacteria can more easily escape these local sites to further explore their neighboring environment along the fungi, suggesting that wrap mode may be beneficial for migration along the fungi in liquid. In a different set of simulations of bacterial motion close to an isolated chemotactic source, wrap mode is shown to increase the ability of a bacterium to reorient toward the source while reducing the overall motion required for similar chemotactic efficiency as a run-reverse strategy, suggesting a potential metabolic benefit. In contrast, model simulations show that wrap mode can increase the rate of dispersal of P. aeruginosa in a nonchemotactic environment.

Hansen, Austin [University of California, Riversid↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parking Strategies and Outcomes for Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations

Parking spots are a premium commodity, especially in dense downtown settings, so this study examines the service impacts of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) parking in legal on- or off-street locations when idle across Travis County in Austin, Texas. Here, using an agent-based activity-based travel demand model with dynamic traffic simulation, two restricted-parking strategies for SAVs were simulated. SAVs either found the nearest available parking spot or the lowest-cost spot (via a tradeoff of parking fees and distance-based costs). Two comparisons were conducted to analyze the impacts of these strategies. First, two restricted parking strategies were compared, where SAVs park without competition with private human-driven vehicles (HVs) for parking locations. Second, a more realistic analysis compared two SAV parking strategies with a scenario where SAVs remain idle in place. Private HVs in all scenarios and strategies of this comparison park at the closest designated location unless they opt for private parking. Using a supply of 8,400 aggregated parking locations in Austin, this study simulated fleet performance under different trip demands, with SAV fares of $\$0.62$ per kilometer ($\$1$ per mile) plus a $\$1$ fixed pickup fee with dynamic ridesharing permitted. Parking costs were negligible in both SAV parking search strategies applied to the Austin network because of the region’s provision of mostly free parking. Requiring SAVs to park on designated on- and off-street parking locations and parking lots (restricted parking) also increased parking costs for HV drivers by up to 22% since SAVs occupied some free parking spaces, especially in the least-cost parking search strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AMMPER: a user-friendly agent-based model that recapitulates simple metabolic responses of yeast to deep-space radiation

For humans venturing to deep space, radiation exposure poses a major health risk. Fundamental research into the biological effects of space radiation are essential for enabling exploration, and the first experimental organisms we send to deep space will be microbial. Yet there are many ways in which microorganisms are likely to experience the effects of high-energy particle radiation (such as Galactic Cosmic Rays) differently from multicellular animals, partly due to the simple fact that microbes are small and unicellular-- less likely to get hit in the first place, and less likely to communicate damage between cells. Computational modeling can aid in designing experiments and predicting the biological effects of radiation, but thus far particle radiation models have not focused on microbes. Here we present the latest developments in AMMPER, the Agent-based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation. Originally written in 2021, AMMPER is a Python-based model that incorporates radiation track data from NASA's RITRACKS software and simulates the growth, damage, and death of yeast cells in 3D. It is now freely available as an open-source package on NASA's GitHub repository. Recent improvements include the ability to simulate the dynamics of alamarBlue, a color-changing redox dye commonly used to track metabolic activity in microbial spaceflight experiments. We demonstrate that a simple blue-pink-clear transition model is able to recapitulate key features observed in empirical data from ground studies. AMMPER also includes a new graphical user interface and introductory tutorial to facilitate ease of use by a wider audience. AMMPER can help us to understand how spatially heterogeneous particle radiation damage at the single-cell level can translate to growth differences at the population level, ultimately allowing us to better interpret experiments using microbes as model organisms and how well their results apply to humans.

yeast↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Delay-, Distance-, and Cordon-Based Congestion Pricing Strategies Via Large-Scale Simulation

This study compares the impacts of delay-, distance-, and cordon-based congestion pricing strategies for Austin, Texas, using the POLARIS agent-based activity-based travel demand simulation model. This approach enables agent-level heterogeneity and realistic choice options (including destination, mode, and activity scheduling) for dynamic traffic assignment and congestion feedbacks across a major metro region, which are features lacking in past work. To ensure comparability, distance-based tolls were set to generate the same revenue as delay-based tolling of $3.5 M/day, averaging $1.17/resident/day or $0.42/vehicle-trip. Delay-based pricing delivers 44% lower network delay and 13% lower VHT compared to the no-toll baseline, levels unmatched by other pricing strategies. At the height of the AM peak, drivers pay up to $0.13/mile on average, though most links in the network remain untolled. Distance-based pricing is the most effective at reducing VMT (by 4%), but VHT reductions (of 6%) primarily stem from drivers selecting closer destinations, achieving only one-fourth the delay reduction of delay-based pricing. Across various implementations of delay- and distance-based pricing, the results suggest that spatial variations of tolls are far more important than temporal variations. Cordon tolls produce minimal impacts at the network-wide level, but offer substantial delay reductions inside the cordon. Other major findings include: 1) delay-based pricing increases trip-making during the PM peak period due to backward shifts in discretionary-activity start times by higher-income residents; and 2) tolls’ spatial impacts, including changes in network flows and tolls paid by residents, vary substantially between delay- and distance-based pricing strategies.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Opinion dynamics in financial markets via random networks

We investigate financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize individuals in a financial market according to their trading strategy, namely, whether they are noise traders or fundamentalists. The opinion of a local majority compels the market exchanging behavior of noise traders, whereas the global behavior of the market influences the decisions of fundamentalist agents. We introduce a noise parameter, q , to represent the level of anxiety and perceived uncertainty regarding market behavior, enabling the possibility of adrift financial action. We place individuals as nodes in an Erdös-Rényi random graph, where the links represent their social interactions. At any given time, individuals assume one of two possible opinion states ±1 regarding buying or selling an asset. The model exhibits fundamental qualitative and quantitative real-world market features such as the distribution of logarithmic returns with fat tails, clustered volatility, and the long-term correlation of returns. We use Student’s t distributions to fit the histograms of logarithmic returns, showing a gradual shift from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime depending on the fraction of fundamentalist agents. Furthermore, we compare our results with those concerning the distribution of the logarithmic returns of several real-world financial indices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bounded-Confidence Models of Multidimensional Opinions with Topic-Weighted Discordance

People’s opinions on a wide range of topics often evolve over time through their interactions with others. Models of opinion dynamics primarily focus on one-dimensional opinions, which represent opinions on one topic. However, opinions on various topics are rarely isolated; instead, they can be interdependent and correlated. In a bounded-confidence model (BCM) of opinion dynamics, agents are receptive to each other only if their opinions are sufficiently similar. Here, we extend classical agent-based BCMs—namely, the Hegselmann–Krause BCM, which has synchronous interactions, and the Deffuant–Weisbuch BCM, which has asynchronous interactions—to a multidimensional setting, in which the opinions are multidimensional vectors representing opinions of different topics and opinions on different topics are interdependent. To measure opinion differences between agents, we introduce topic-weighted discordance functions that account for opinion differences in all topics. We define regions of receptiveness for our models, and we use them to characterize the steady-state opinion clusters and provide an analytical approach to compute these regions. In addition, we numerically simulate our models on various networks with initial opinions drawn from a variety of distributions. When initial opinions are correlated across different topics, our topic-weighted BCMs yield significantly different results in both transient and steady states compared to baseline models, where the dynamics of each opinion topic are independent.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
NASA NTRS1996

An Open Computing Infrastructure that Facilitates Integrated Product and Process Development from a Decision-Based Perspective

Computer applications for design have evolved rapidly over the past several decades, and significant payoffs are being achieved by organizations through reductions in design cycle times. These applications are overwhelmed by the requirements imposed during complex, open engineering systems design. Organizations are faced with a number of different methodologies, numerous legacy disciplinary tools, and a very large amount of data. Yet they are also faced with few interdisciplinary tools for design collaboration or methods for achieving the revolutionary product designs required to maintain a competitive advantage in the future. These organizations are looking for a software infrastructure that integrates current corporate design practices with newer simulation and solution techniques. Such an infrastructure must be robust to changes in both corporate needs and enabling technologies. In addition, this infrastructure must be user-friendly, modular and scalable. This need is the motivation for the research described in this dissertation. The research is focused on the development of an open computing infrastructure that facilitates product and process design. In addition, this research explicitly deals with human interactions during design through a model that focuses on the role of a designer as that of decision-maker. The research perspective here is taken from that of design as a discipline with a focus on Decision-Based Design, Theory of Languages, Information Science, and Integration Technology. Given this background, a Model of IPPD is developed and implemented along the lines of a traditional experimental procedure: with the steps of establishing context, formalizing a theory, building an apparatus, conducting an experiment, reviewing results, and providing recommendations. Based on this Model, Design Processes and Specification can be explored in a structured and implementable architecture. An architecture for exploring design called DREAMS (Developing Robust Engineering Analysis Models and Specifications) has been developed which supports the activities of both meta-design and actual design execution. This is accomplished through a systematic process which is comprised of the stages of Formulation, Translation, and Evaluation. During this process, elements from a Design Specification are integrated into Design Processes. In addition, a software infrastructure was developed and is called IMAGE (Intelligent Multidisciplinary Aircraft Generation Environment). This represents a virtual apparatus in the Design Experiment conducted in this research. IMAGE is an innovative architecture because it explicitly supports design-related activities. This is accomplished through a GUI driven and Agent-based implementation of DREAMS. A HSCT design has been adopted from the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and is implemented in IMAGE. This problem shows how Design Processes and Specification interact in a design system. In addition, the problem utilizes two different solution models concurrently: optimal and satisfying. The satisfying model allows for more design flexibility and allows a designer to maintain design freedom. As a result of following this experimental procedure, this infrastructure is an open system that it is robust to changes in both corporate needs and computer technologies. The development of this infrastructure leads to a number of significant intellectual contributions: 1) A new approach to implementing IPPD with the aid of a computer; 2) A formal Design Experiment; 3) A combined Process and Specification architecture that is language-based; 4) An infrastructure for exploring design; 5) An integration strategy for implementing computer resources; and 6) A seamless modeling language. The need for these contributions is emphasized by the demand by industry and government agencies for the development of these technologies.

Hale, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Adaptivity in Agent-Based Routing for Data Networks

Adaptivity, both of the individual agents and of the interaction structure among the agents, seems indispensable for scaling up multi-agent systems (MAS s) in noisy environments. One important consideration in designing adaptive agents is choosing their action spaces to be as amenable as possible to machine learning techniques, especially to reinforcement learning (RL) techniques. One important way to have the interaction structure connecting agents itself be adaptive is to have the intentions and/or actions of the agents be in the input spaces of the other agents, much as in Stackelberg games. We consider both kinds of adaptivity in the design of a MAS to control network packet routing. We demonstrate on the OPNET event-driven network simulator the perhaps surprising fact that simply changing the action space of the agents to be better suited to RL can result in very large improvements in their potential performance: at their best settings, our learning-amenable router agents achieve throughputs up to three and one half times better than that of the standard Bellman-Ford routing algorithm, even when the Bellman-Ford protocol traffic is maintained. We then demonstrate that much of that potential improvement can be realized by having the agents learn their settings when the agent interaction structure is itself adaptive.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2024

An On-Board Off-Board Framework for Online Replanning: Applied to UAVs in Urban Environments

Autonomous systems are being used in a multitude of areas at an increasing rate and require a high level of adaptivity and intelligence to operate safely, especially under faulty conditions. This paper introduces a novel genetic algorithm tailored for UAV trajectory replanning, with an improved execution time via search space reduction based on the operating conditions of the UAV and its remaining mission. A unique characteristic of the replanning agent is its fast-start and adaptive properties, pre-seeding candidates with partial solutions and dynamically tuning elitism, crossover, and mutation rates in correspondence to the average fitness and diversity of the population. A population restart mechanism and early stopping mechanism are evaluated as well to assess their effect on solution quality and runtime. Previous work on genetic algorithms for UAV replanning were conducted with short trajectories in a small state space. Our UAV operates in a 56,000 square meter simulated urban environment, with static obstacles and a total of 53 possible waypoints. The agent increases the safety and reliability of UAV autonomy when operating under faulty conditions and when replanning is required.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. Using GHEDesigner, a lookup table was created to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on agent energy bills. This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of different costing and pricing future scenarios. While the code is still under development and nationwide simulations are ongoing, initial results for two states are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts and considering multiple costing scenarios.

ambient temperature loop↗