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At least 145 records · Page 8

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Moving toward automated µFTIR spectra matching for microplastic identification: addressing false identifications and improving accuracy

Abstract Infrared spectroscopy is a widely used tool for studying microplastics and identifying microparticles. Researchers rely on spectral libraries to differentiate between synthetic and natural materials. Unfortunately, spectral library matching is not perfect, and best practices require researchers to use time consuming, manual peak matching to assess spectral matches. Moving toward automated matching requires increased confidence in the matching process. Using spectra matching software may increase the efficiency of particle identification, however some matching strategies may confuse natural materials such as cotton, silk, and plant matter with common classes of synthetics such as polyesters and polyamides. In this experiment, we prepared 22 pristine sample materials from natural and synthetic sources and measured micro-Fourier transform infrared (µFTIR) spectra in transmission mode for each sample using a Thermo Nicolet iN10 MX instrument. The collected spectra were then input into two spectral library matching systems (Omnic Picta and Open Specy), using a total of five identification routines. Next, we placed a subset of four pristine microplastic materials in a biologically active river system for two weeks to simulate environmental samples. These simulated environmental samples were processed using 10% hydrogen peroxide for 24 h to remove organic contamination and then identified using the strongest performing library. We found that libraries with fewer sample spectra produced lower correlation matches and that using derivative correction greatly reduced the number of inaccuracies in identifying materials as either natural or synthetic. We also found that environmental fouling reduced the correlation value of library matches when compared to pristine particles, however the effect was not consistent across the four materials tested. Overall, we found that the accuracy of automated library matching in the tested systems and processing routines varied from 64.1 to 98.0% for distinguishing between natural and synthetic materials, and that a high Hit Quality Index (HQI) did not always correlate with accuracy. These results are important for the microplastic field, demonstrating a need to rigorously test spectral libraries and processing routines with known materials to ensure identification accuracy.

Kozloski, Rachel↗

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗

Investigating Temperature Uniformity and Accuracy in PV Module Lamination: A Verification Study

This study investigates the temperature uniformity and accuracy of a photovoltaic (PV) module lamination process by addressing inconsistencies identified in 2017 data where irregular temperature changes were observed across setpoints. The 2017 data showed a notable drop in temperature upon bladder initiation, except for the 145 degrees Celsius profile. This inconsistency indicated potential inaccuracies in manual data recording methods. To address this concern, a verification experiment was conducted to evaluate temperature uniformity across the 2014 Bent River SPL2828 laminator platen and within test samples. Thermocouples, paired with Omega data acquisition software, were deployed to measure temperatures at multiple platen locations and within test samples. The experiment compared lamination temperatures of polyethylene-co-vinyl acetate (EVA) encapsulant when paired with solite glass or TPE backsheets. The methodology included verifying temperature uniformity directly on the platen and by using a large glass/EVA/glass sample using multiple thermocouples. Smaller samples were built with glass/EVA/glass and glass/EVA/backsheet configurations with one centered thermocouple to verify and compare sample temperatures. This verification aims to refine lamination temperature profiles, enhance data accuracy and provide insights into optimal process control for uniform module lamination. Ensuring consistent and uniform lamination may improve the accuracy and reliability of research outcomes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accuracy optimized neural networks do not effectively model optic flow tuning in brain area MSTd

Accuracy-optimized convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have emerged as highly effective models at predicting neural responses in brain areas along the primate ventral stream, but it is largely unknown whether they effectively model neurons in the complementary primate dorsal stream. We explored how well CNNs model the optic flow tuning properties of neurons in dorsal area MSTd and we compared our results with the Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NNMF) model, which successfully models many tuning properties of MSTd neurons. To better understand the role of computational properties in the NNMF model that give rise to optic flow tuning that resembles that of MSTd neurons, we created additional CNN model variants that implement key NNMF constraints – non-negative weights and sparse coding of optic flow. While the CNNs and NNMF models both accurately estimate the observer's self-motion from purely translational or rotational optic flow, NNMF and the CNNs with nonnegative weights yield substantially less accurate estimates than the other CNNs when tested on more complex optic flow that combines observer translation and rotation. Despite its poor accuracy, NNMF gives rise to tuning properties that align more closely with those observed in primate MSTd than any of the accuracy-optimized CNNs. This work offers a step toward a deeper understanding of the computational properties and constraints that describe the optic flow tuning of primate area MSTd.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reliability, biological variability, and accuracy of multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis for measuring body composition components

Introduction Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) systems are gaining popularity for use in research and fitness assessments as the technology improves and becomes more affordable and easier to use. Multifrequency BIA (MF-BIA) may improve accuracy and precision using octopolar contacts for segmental analyses. Purpose Evaluate reliability, biological variability, and accuracy of component measures (total body water, mass, and composition) of commercially available MF-BIA system (InBody 770, Cerritos, California, USA). Methods Fourteen healthy military-age adults were assessed by MF-BIA in duplicate on five laboratory visits across 3 weeks (10 measures each). Participants were evaluated at the same time of day after refraining from strenuous exercise (> 48 h), alcohol consumption (> 24 h), and caffeine, nicotine, and food (> 10 h). Systematic error (test–retest reliability) and biological variability (day-to-day reliability) were summarized by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) values determined for body mass (fat, fat-free, total) and body water (extracellular, intracellular, total). Body composition measurements derived from BIA on the second visit were also tested for accuracy compared to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Results Test–retest reliability was very high for all measurements of whole-body water and mass (ICC ≥ 0.999) and high for regional body water and mass (ICC 0.973–1.000). Biological variability was observable with very minor differences between tests (same day) for total and regional body water (0.0–0.2 L) and total and regional body mass measurements (0.0–0.2 kg); while between day differences were slightly higher (0.0–0.5 L and 0.1–0.7 kg). Compared to DXA, the MF-BIA whole-body measures showed an offset in %BF (Bias −4.0 ± 2.8%; Standard error of the estimate (SEE), 2.6%), an overprediction for total body fat-free mass (Bias 2.8 ± 2.1 kg; SEE 2.2 kg) and an underprediction of total body fat mass (Bias −2.9 ± 2.0 kg; SEE 1.9 kg). Conclusion Under controlled conditions with fit and healthy men and women, this MF-BIA system has high methodological reliability and demonstrates stable day-to-day measurements of major body composition components. Previously reported ~3% body fat offset compared to criterion methods was again confirmed. Precision of the InBody 770 shows consistency and supports further testing of this specific device as a new military standards method and suitability across a wider range of %BF.

Nutrition & Dietetics↗

ON THE ACCURACY OF MEASUREMENTS MADE UPON FILMS PHOTOGRAPHED BY BAKER-NUNN SATELLITE TRACKING CAMERAS

The photographs taken by the Baker-Nunn cameras of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory were formerly measured with Van Biesbroeck goniometers, but are now measured exclusively with Mann two-screw comparators. Instead of measuring point images, we usually have to measure oblong images, either trails or breaks (the latter produced by interruption of the exposure). We can therefore expect that the accuracy of the determination of their positions is more influenced by the personal errors than it is in conventional astrometry. Approximately 800 measurements were made on 34 images of different length, and, from these, the frequency distribution of settings was determined. Then the relationship between this distribution and the length of the image (trail or break) was examined, and the relationship between the "magnitude error" and the length of image was determined. Measurements were made at different angles formed by the trails and the reticle lines, and it was found that the accuracy was not affected by the angle of the setting. Position determinations have been made using reference stars at different distances. On the basis of these results, we can conclude that the accuracy is neither influenced by the distortion of the emulsion nor by the optical distortion within an area of a diameter of S cm (5°.8). We believe that we are justified in using the linear plate constant method, at least within this area. From numerous double and multiple measurements, the following standard errors were determined for a single position.

ASTROMETRY↗

Mariner Venus-Mercury 1973 midcourse velocity requirements and delivery accuracy

The primary mission is described, which consists of encounters with Venus and Mercury; (a second encounter with Mercury is also possible). The exptected navigation sequences were simulated with a Monte Carlo computer program for the purpose of determining midcourse correction velocity requirements and delivery accuracies. These simulations provide sensitivity in velocity requirements and delivery accuracies to error sources affecting the navigation process. The orbit determination capability at the final pre-Venus maneuver is shown to be the dominant contributor to the velocity requirements for the primary mission. Similarly, the orbit determination capability at the final pre-Mercury maneuver is shown to be the dominant contributor to the delivery accuracy at Mercury.

Mckinley, E. L.↗

Analysis of instrumentation error effects on the identification accuracy of aircraft parameters

An analytical investigation is presented of the effect of unmodeled measurement system errors on the accuracy of aircraft stability and control derivatives identified from flight test data. Such error sources include biases, scale factor errors, instrument position errors, misalignments, and instrument dynamics. Two techniques (ensemble analysis and simulated data analysis) are formulated to determine the quantitative variations to the identified parameters resulting from the unmodeled instrumentation errors. The parameter accuracy that would result from flight tests of the F-4C aircraft with typical quality instrumentation is determined using these techniques. It is shown that unmodeled instrument errors can greatly increase the uncertainty in the value of the identified parameters. General recommendations are made of procedures to be followed to insure that the measurement system associated with identifying stability and control derivatives from flight test provides sufficient accuracy.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

Position determination accuracy from the microwave landing system

Analysis and results are given for the position determination accuracy obtainable from the microwave landing guidance system. Siting arrangements, coverage volumes, and accuracy standards for the azimuth, elevation, and range functions of the microwave system are discussed. Results are given for the complete coverage of the systems and are related to flight operational requirements for position estimation during flare, glide slope, and general terminal area approaches. Range rate estimation from range data is also analyzed. The distance measuring equipment accuracy required to meet the range rate estimation standards is determined, and a method of optimizing the range rate estimate is also given.

Cicolani, L. S.↗

Air traffic control surveillance accuracy and update rate study

The results of an air traffic control surveillance accuracy and update rate study are presented. The objective of the study was to establish quantitative relationships between the surveillance accuracies, update rates, and the communication load associated with the tactical control of aircraft for conflict resolution. The relationships are established for typical types of aircraft, phases of flight, and types of airspace. Specific cases are analyzed to determine the surveillance accuracies and update rates required to prevent two aircraft from approaching each other too closely.

Craigie, J. H.↗

Accuracy, resolution, and cost comparisons between small format and mapping cameras for environmental mapping

Successful aerial photography depends on aerial cameras providing acceptable photographs within cost restrictions of the job. For topographic mapping where ultimate accuracy is required only large format mapping cameras will suffice. For mapping environmental patterns of vegetation, soils, or water pollution, 9-inch cameras often exceed accuracy and cost requirements, and small formats may be better. In choosing the best camera for environmental mapping, relative capabilities and costs must be understood. This study compares resolution, photo interpretation potential, metric accuracy, and cost of 9-inch, 70mm, and 35mm cameras for obtaining simultaneous color and color infrared photography for environmental mapping purposes.

Clegg, R. H.↗

The effects of random path fluctuations on the accuracy of laser ranging systems

The precision of satellite ranging systems, limited in part by atmospheric refraction and scattering, is examined. The effects of atmospheric turbulence on the accuracy of single color and multicolor ranging systems is discussed. The statistical characteristics of the random path length fluctuations induced by turbulence are examined. Correlation and structure functions are derived using several proposed models for the variations of the optical path length. For single color systems it is shown that the random path length fluctuations can limit the accuracy of a range measurement to a few centimeters. Two color systems can partially correct for the random path fluctuations so that in most cases their accuracy is limited to a few millimeters. However, at low elevation angles and over long horizontal paths two color systems can also have errors approaching a few centimeters.

Gardner, C. S.↗

Measurement accuracy of flow velocity via a digital-frequency-counter laser velocimeter processor

The laser velocimeter (LV) technique has so far been successfully applied to many flow situations to obtain mean velocity and turbulence level measurements. The paper deals with a unique LV system employing a digital frequency counter for measurements of turbulence spectra within the objectives of achieving higher accuracies and a wider range of velocities than were possible by previous analog systems. Systematic analysis of the effects of LV system errors in the accuracy of the turbulence power spectral measurements is performed and shown to agree reasonably with the experimental LV spectra results. Sufficient understanding of the accuracy and limitations of the digital frequency counter LV spectral measurement system is obtained. Among the major system errors encountered in a typical digital frequency counter LV processor, the truncation error is regarded as the most serious source of error. The quantizing step size defined as the ratio of Doppler frequency to processor clock frequency is an important parameter in determining the dynamic range of a turbulence power spectrum.

Wang, J. C. F.↗

Effects of random path fluctuations on the accuracy of laser ranging systems

Effects of turbulence-induced pathlength fluctuations on the accuracy of single-color laser ranging systems are examined. Correlation and structure functions for the path deviations are derived using several proposed models for the variation of the turbulence structure parameter with altitude. For single-color systems, random pathlength fluctuations can limit the accuracy of a range measurement to a few centimeters when the turbulence is strong and the effective propagation path is long (greater than 10 km). Two-color systems can partially correct for the random path fluctuations so that in most cases their accuracy is limited to a few millimeters. However, at low elevation angles for satellite ranging (less than 20 deg) and over long horizontal paths, two-color systems can also have errors approaching a few centimeters.

Gardner, C. S.↗

Additional studies of forest classification accuracy as influenced by multispectral scanner spatial resolution

First, an analysis of forest feature signatures was used to help explain the large variation in classification accuracy that can occur among individual forest features for any one case of spatial resolution and the inconsistent changes in classification accuracy that were demonstrated among features as spatial resolution was degraded. Second, the classification rejection threshold was varied in an effort to reduce the large proportion of unclassified resolution elements that previously appeared in the processing of coarse resolution data when a constant rejection threshold was used for all cases of spatial resolution. For the signature analysis, two-channel ellipse plots showing the feature signature distributions for several cases of spatial resolution indicated that the capability of signatures to correctly identify their respective features is dependent on the amount of statistical overlap among signatures. Reductions in signature variance that occur in data of degraded spatial resolution may not necessarily decrease the amount of statistical overlap among signatures having large variance and small mean separations. Features classified by such signatures may thus continue to have similar amounts of misclassified elements in coarser resolution data, and thus, not necessarily improve in classification accuracy.

Sadowski, F. E.↗

Methods for the computation of detailed geoids and their accuracy

Two methods for the computation of geoid undulations using potential coefficients and 1 deg x 1 deg terrestrial anomaly data are examined. It was found that both methods give the same final result but that one method allows a more simplified error analysis. Specific equations were considered for the effect of the mass of the atmosphere and a cap dependent zero-order undulation term was derived. Although a correction to a gravity anomaly for the effect of the atmosphere is only about -0.87 mgal, this correction causes a fairly large undulation correction that was not considered previously. The accuracy of a geoid undulation computed by these techniques was estimated considering anomaly data errors, potential coefficient errors, and truncation (only a finite set of potential coefficients being used) errors. It was found that an optimum cap size of 20 deg should be used. The geoid and its accuracy were computed in the Geos 3 calibration area using the GEM 6 potential coefficients and 1 deg x 1 deg terrestrial anomaly data. The accuracy of the computed geoid is on the order of plus or minus 2 m with respect to an unknown set of best earth parameter constants.

Rapp, R. H.↗

TRASYS: Checkout of accuracy of direct irradiation calculations for discs, trapezoids, cones, and circular paraboloids

Results of the direct irradiation link of the TRASYS program are evaluated. Several surface configurations were investigated. The accuracy of the results was examined for simple cases where the answers were analytically known. By varying an accuracy factor in the program, the amount of computer time needed to achieve different degress of accuracy was determined.

Mackeen, R. C.↗