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This annual report covers the activities of the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Mission Information and Test Systems directorate, which include the Western Aeronautical Test Range (Range Engineering and Range Operations), the Simulation Engineering Branch, and Information Services. This report contains highlights, current projects, and various awards achieved throughout 2012 and 2013.
Purpose of making ozone and water vapor profiles measurements in SEAC4RS is to give consistent coverage of the vertical structure at fixed sites to (1) complement 2 campaign aircraft sampling; (2) ground-truth satellite measurements of H O and ozone; (3) provide profiles for model evaluation; (4) study processes responsible for day-to-day variability at each site. Revised objective for 2013, due to cancellation of the 2012 and 2013 plans to operate in Southeast Asia: rapidly re-configure the original "SEACIONS," Southeast Asian Consortium for Intensive Ozonesonde Network Study, to a SouthEast American plan (SEACIONS) for collecting daily ozonesonde data during DC-8 and ER-2 flights throughout the southeastern US. As in previous IONS (2004, 2006, 2008), students were trained at St Louis, Tallahassee, Houston, Penn State, Huntsville, Socorro. Images of the soundings and related flight-planning products were posted each day at NASA and Penn State (PSU) websites. With the aircraft based at Ellington Field (Houston), water CFH (cryogenic frost-point hygrometer) sondes in addition to ozonesondes, were to be taken launched at that site.
From August 2012 to February 2013 a High Resolution Spectral Lidar (HSRL; 532 nm) was deployed at that National University of Singapore near a NASA Micro Pulse Lidar NETwork (MPLNET; 527 nm) site. A primary objective of the MPLNET lidar project is the production and dissemination of reliable Level 1 measurements and Level 2 retrieval products. This paper characterizes and quantifies error in Level 2 aerosol optical property retrievals conducted through inversion techniques that derive backscattering and extinction coefficients from MPLNET elastic single-wavelength datasets. MPLNET Level 2 retrievals for aerosol optical depth and extinction/backscatter coefficient profiles are compared with corresponding HSRL datasets, for which the instrument collects direct measurements of each using a unique optical configuration that segregates aerosol and cloud backscattered signal from molecular signal. The intercomparison is performed, and error matrices reported, for lower (0-5km) and the upper (>5km) troposphere, respectively, to distinguish uncertainties observed within and above the MPLNET instrument optical overlap regime.
Characterising radiation from wildland fires is an important focus of fire science because radiation relates directly to the combustion process and can be measured across a wide range of spatial extents and resolutions. As part of a more comprehensive set of measurements collected during the 2012 Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research (RxCADRE) field campaign, we used ground, airborne and spaceborne sensors to measure fire radiative power (FRP) from whole fires, applying different methods to small (2 ha) and large (.100 ha) burn blocks. For small blocks (n1/46), FRP estimated from an obliquely oriented long-wave infrared (LWIR) camera mounted on a boom lift were compared with FRP derived from combined data from tower-mounted radiometers and remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS). For large burn blocks (n1/43), satellite FRP measurements from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors were compared with near-coincident FRP measurements derived from a LWIR imaging system aboard a piloted aircraft. We describe measurements and consider their strengths and weaknesses. Until quantitative sensors exist for small RPAS, their use in fire research will remain limited. For oblique, airborne and satellite sensors, further FRP measurement development is needed along with greater replication of coincident measurements, which we show to be feasible.
We present initial analysis and conclusions from plasma observations made during the reported Mars Dust plume event of March - April 2012. During this period, multiple independent amateur observers detected a localized, high-altitude plume over the Martian dawn terminator [Sanchez-Lavega7 et al., Nature, 2015, doi:10.1038nature14162], the origin of which remains to be explained. We report on in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma density and solar wind parameters throughout this interval made by Mars Express, obtained over the surface region, but at the opposing terminator. We tentatively conclude that the formation and/or transport of this plume to the altitudes where it was observed could be due in part the result of a large interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) encountering the Martian system. Interestingly, we note that a similar plume detection in May 1997 may also have been associated with a large ICME impact at Mars.
The PAMELA space experiment is providing first direct observations of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) with energies from about 80 MeV to several GeV in near-Earth orbit, bridging the low energy measurements by other spacecrafts and the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) data by the worldwide network of neutron monitors. Its unique observational capabilities include the possibility of measuring the flux angular distribution and thus investigating possible anisotropies associated to SEP events. The analysis is supported by an accurate back-tracing simulation based on a realistic description of the Earth's magnetosphere, which is exploited to estimate the SEP energy spectra as a function of the asymptotic direction of arrival with respect to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). In this work we report the results for the May 17, 2012 event.
We present a study of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the boreal winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 produced with a new high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. This system is based on a modified version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) with an extended vertical domain up to approximately 116 km altitude coupled with a hybrid four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system that assimilates both standard operational meteorological observations in the troposphere and satellite-based observations of temperature, ozone and water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere. NAVGEM-based MLT analyzed winds are validated using independent meteor radar wind observations from nine different sites ranging from 69 deg N-67 deg S latitude. Time-averaged NAVGEM zonal and meridional wind profiles between 75 and 95 km altitude show good qualitative and quantitative agreement with corresponding meteor radar wind profiles. Wavelet analysis finds that the 3-hourly NAVGEM and 1-hourly radar winds both exhibit semi-diurnal, diurnal, and quasi-diurnal variations whose vertical profiles of amplitude and phase are also in good agreement. Wavelet analysis also reveals common time-frequency behavior in both NAVGEM and radar winds throughout the Northern extra tropics around the times of major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in January 2010 and January 2013, with a reduction in semi-diurnal amplitudes beginning around the time of a mesospheric wind reversal at 60 deg N that precedes the SSW, followed by an amplification of semi-diurnal amplitudes that peaks 10-14 days following the onset of the mesospheric wind reversal. The initial results presented in this study demonstrate that the wind analyses produced by the high altitude NAVGEM system accurately capture key features in the observed MLT winds during these two boreal winter periods.
We report on a case study of the complex type II radio burst of 2012 January 19 and its association with a white-light coronal mass ejection (CME). The complexity can be described as the appearance of an additional type II burst component and strong intensity variation. The dynamic spectrum shows a pair of type II bursts with fundamental harmonic structures, one confined to decameter-hectometric (DH) wavelengths and the other extending to kilometric (km) wavelengths. By comparing the speeds obtained from white-light images with that speed of the shock inferred from the drift rate, we show that the source of the short-lived DH component is near the nose.
Aerosol mass concentrations are affected by local emissions as well as long-range transboundary (LRT) aerosols. This work investigates regional and local variations of aerosols based on Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON).We constructed DRAGON-Japan and DRAGON-Osaka in spring of 2012. The former network covers almost all of Japan in order to obtain aerosol information in regional scale over Japanese islands. It was determined from the DRAGON-Japan campaign that the values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) decrease from west to east during an aerosol episode. In fact, the highest AOT was recorded at Fukue Island at the western end of the network, and the value was much higher than that of urban areas. The latter network (DRAGON-Osaka) was set as a dense instrument network in the megalopolis of Osaka, with a population of 12 million, to better understand local aerosol dynamics in urban areas. AOT was further measured with a mobile sun photometer attached to a car. This transect information showed that aerosol concentrations rapidly changed in time and space together when most of the Osaka area was covered with moderate LRT aerosols. The combined use of the dense instrument network (DRAGON-Osaka) and high-frequency measurements provides the motion of aerosol advection, which coincides with the wind vector around the layer between 700 and 850 hPa as provided by the reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.
During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases ('dropouts') in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere- ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M-I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.
The PAMELA (Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astro-physics) spaceborne experiment was launched on 15 June 2006 and has been continuously collecting data since then. The apparatus measures electrons, positrons, protons, anti-protons and heavier nuclei from about 100 megaelectronvolts to several hundreds of gigaelectronvolts. The on-board instrumentation is built around a permanent magnet with a silicon microstrip tracker, providing charge and track detection information. During solar maximum conditions of solar cycle 24, PAMELA has been providing key information about solar energetic particles (SEPs) and their influence at Earth. We discuss here the recent 2012 March 7 SEP event with a brief comment on the subsequent Forbush decrease, registered by PAMELA. This event was also observed by Fermi/LAT (Large Area Telescope) exhibiting unprecedented time-extended gamma-ray emission (greater than 100 megaelectronvolts) lasting nearly 20 hours. We compare the derived accelerated ion population at the Sun with the ion population measured in space by PAMELA and discuss the implications for particle acceleration.
A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.
We performed high-dispersion near-infrared spectroscopic observations of comet C/2010 G2 (Hill) at 2.5 AU from the Sun using NIRSPEC (R approx. equal to 25,000) at the Keck II Telescope on UT 2012 January 9 and 10, about a week after an outburst had occurred. Over the two nights of our observations, prominent emission lines of CH4 and C2H6, along with weaker emission lines of H2O, HCN, CH3OH, and CO were detected. The gas production rate of CO was comparable to that of H2O during the outburst. The mixing ratios of CO, HCN, CH4, C2H6, and CH3OHwith respect to H2O were higher than those for normal comets by a factor of five or more. The enrichment of COand CH4 in comet Hill suggests that the sublimation of these hypervolatiles sustained the outburst of the comet. Some fraction of water in the inner coma might exist as icy grains that were likely ejected from nucleus by the sublimation of hypervolatiles. Mixing ratios of volatiles in comet Hill are indicative of the interstellar heritage without significant alteration in the solar nebula.
Optically thin cirrus cloud (optical depth < 0.3) net radiative forcing represents one of the primary uncertainties in climate feedback, as sub-visible clouds play a fundamental role in atmospheric radiation balance and climate change. A lidar is a very sensitive optical device to detect clouds with an optical depth as low as 10-4. In this paper we assess the daytime net radiative forcing of sub-visible cirrus clouds detected at Goddard Space Flight Center, a permanent observational site of the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network in 2012. Depending on their height, season and hour of the day, the solar albedo effect can outweigh the infrared greenhouse effect, cooling the earth atmosphere system rather than warming it exclusively. As result, based on latitude, the net forcing of sub-visible cirrus clouds can be more accurately parameterized in climate models.
The 2012 July 6 X1.1 are at S13W59 and a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a space speed of 1900 km s1 were associated with type III and type II radio bursts. The metric-to-decametric type II radio burst extended down to 5 MHz. Simultaneously a slowly drifting feature with a harmonic structure was observed by Wind and STEREO radio receivers around and below 1 MHz, above the strong type III radio burst at lower frequencies. The radio direction finding analysis of this lower-frequency interplanetary (IP) type II radio burst indicates that the radio source was located near the nose and possibly towards the southern flank of the CME-driven shock. These results provide an independent confirmation of the previous suggestions that when the metric and IP type II bursts are overlapping, the lower-frequency IP type II radio burst originates near the shock nose, whereas the source of the higher-frequency metric type II burst is closer to the Sun in the shock flank region. These results further support the idea that the coronal and IP type II bursts are produced by the same CME-driven shock.
Flash droughts refer to droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal (i.e., on the order of weeks to a few months). Such droughts can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. We investigated the prediction skill of U.S. flash droughts at subseasonal lead times in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project. An additional comprehensive set of hindcasts with NASA?s GEOSv2.1, a model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. Here we focus on results for the 2012 Great Plains flash drought, noting that the findings based on this event are generally applicable to other U.S. flash droughts. The prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While the skill is limited to less than 2 weeks in most models, it is considerably higher (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-North Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary Rossby waves.
Rapid-onset droughts, known as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. Here, we investigate the prediction skill of the extreme 2012 flash drought over the U.S. Great Plains at subseasonal lead times (3 weeks or more in advance) in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). An additional comprehensive set of subseasonal hindcasts with NASA’s GEOS model, a SubX model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. The results show that the prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While skillful predictions are restricted to within the first two forecast weeks in most models, skill is considerably better (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization once dry soil conditions are established, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Evidence is provided that the importance of soil moisture initialization applies more generally to central U.S. summer flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation anomalies.