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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Panel Session 6: Interagency Community of Practice in Risk and Performance Assessments

This panel focused on the status of the Inter-agency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P and RA COP). Representatives from the P and RA COP and subject matter experts discussed lessons learned and provide feedback on building the P and RA COP to support risk-informed environmental decision making. Each panelist provided a brief presentation followed by open discussion. Presentations proposed include: 1 - Applying Lessons Learned on Engineered Barrier Service Life to Performance Assessment (Craig Benson, University of Virginia - CRESP (USA)); 2 - Decision Analysis in Integrated Risk and Performance Assessment: Challenges (Paul Black, Neptune and Company, Inc. (USA)); 3 - Managing Uncertainty (Roger Seitz, IEI (USA)); 4 - U.S. EPA Superfund Program's Need for Model Comparison for Radioactive Contamination (Stuart Walker, Office of Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI), US EPA (USA)); 5 - CRESP Activities Supporting Performance and Risk Assessments (Kevin Brown, Vanderbilt University - CRESP (USA))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Waste Characterization Methods Based on Gamma-ray Imaging Spectrometers - 19454

Characterization of LLW, ILW, U, NORM and TENORM is critical to the nuclear industry's bottom line. Accurate measurements enable the disposal of waste at the lowest possible cost. In the past the most accurate technology available involved using HPGe detectors and extensive system modeling to estimate the total source term given what the user knows about the geometry of the source and any shielding between the source and the detectors. Now there are a variety of imaging detectors that are available commercially, including CZT and HPGe detectors that achieve energy resolution ≤1% FWHM at 662 keV. These devices couple the traditional high resolution spectroscopic analysis with next generation gamma-ray imaging information to more accurately characterize the radiation source term. Uncertainties in the source location will result in significant error in the characterization of an object's radioactivity. It is helpful if the object can be spun, such as a barrel, so that any asymmetry in the source distribution is averaged out from the detector's point of view. Even in the case of a spinning barrel it is important to determine if the radiation is concentrated near the center of the barrel or distributed near the edge. The closer one measures to a barrel, which usually dictates the time required to acquire data, the more these spatial variations in the source distribution will affect the calculated activity of each isotope. This paper will focus on showing the use of CZT imaging spectrometers to characterize complicated radiation source terms. The radiation images are used to determine where the source term should be defined in a radiation transport model that calculates the expected number of photopeak counts for each isotope detected. This is used to calculate the activity of the source. The transport model is used to determine the attenuation of the radiation source term through distance and shielding material, but the detection efficiency is based solely on radiation measurement data. These measurements are taken with a robotic source positioning device that allows for detailed directional efficiency calibration. It is a fully automated system where a detector is loaded into the device and all of the efficiency curves are captured as a function of direction by creating new measurements for each location the robot positions the source. These measurements are tagged with the true source location and the efficiency curve is calculated for each measurement. This is used to create a response function matrix as a function of energy and incident direction which is used to convert the direction dependent flux on the detector head determined from the simulation model to the expected number of counts per unit activity of each isotope of interest. The results of these source term reconstructions in both the spatial and spectral domain will be shown. The impact of improper specification of the source term will be shown for a few standard waste characterization scenarios to demonstrate the importance of proper source location determination. Finally, the underlying calibration method and some sample efficiency curves as a function of direction will be shown to demonstrate the importance of calibrating out directional response functions in imaging devices (which often have a strong forward sensitivity bias). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Joint Oscillation Analysis of Super-Kamiokande Atmospheric and T2K Accelerator Neutrino Data

The Super-Kamiokande and T2K Collaborations present a joint measurement of neutrino oscillation parameters from their atmospheric and beam neutrino data. It uses a common interaction model for events overlapping in neutrino energy and correlated detector systematic uncertainties between the two datasets, which are found to be compatible. Using 3244.4 days of atmospheric data and a beam exposure of 19.7⁢(16.3) × 10 20 protons on target in (anti)neutrino mode, the analysis finds a 1.9⁢𝜎 exclusion of 𝐶⁢𝑃 conservation (defined as 𝐽 𝐶⁢𝑃 = 0) and a 1.2⁢𝜎 exclusion of the inverted mass ordering.

Neutrino detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Gold Nanorod Spectral Morphology Analysis Pipeline

The development of a colloidal synthesis procedure to produce nanomaterials with high shape and size purity is often a time-consuming, iterative process. This is often due to quantitative uncertainties in the required reaction conditions and the time, resources, and expertise intensive characterization methods required for quantitative determination of nanomaterial size and shape. Absorption spectroscopy is often the easiest method for colloidal nanomaterial characterization. However, due to the lack of a reliable method to extract nanoparticle shapes from absorption spectroscopy, it is generally treated as a more qualitative measure for metal nanoparticles. This work demonstrates a gold nanorod (AuNR) spectral morphology analysis tool, called AuNR-SMA, which is a fast and accurate method to extract quantitative structural information from colloidal AuNR absorption spectra. To demonstrate the practical utility of this model, we apply it to three distinct applications. First, we demonstrate this model's utility as an automated analysis tool in a high-throughput AuNR synthesis procedure by generating quantitative size information from optical spectra. Second, we use the predictions generated by this model to train a machine learning model to predict the resulting AuNR size distributions under specified reaction conditions. Third, we apply this model to spectra extracted from the literature where no size distributions are reported and impute unreported quantitative information on AuNR synthesis. This approach can potentially be extended to any other nanocrystal system where absorption spectra are size dependent, and accurate numerical simulation of absorption spectra is possible. In addition, this pipeline could be integrated into automated synthesis apparatuses to provide interpretable data from simple measurements, help explore the synthesis science of nanoparticles in a rational manner, or facilitate closed-loop workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator: A parallel analysis to describe the use of Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant global threat. However, despite urgent need, there remains uncertainty surrounding best practices for pharmaceutical interventions to treat COVID-19. In particular, conflicting evidence has emerged surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, alone or in combination, for COVID-19. The COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator convened by the Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA, in collaboration with Friends of Cancer Research, assembled experts from the health systems research, regulatory science, data science, and epidemiology to participate in a large parallel analysis of different data sets to further explore the effectiveness of these treatments. Methods: Electronic health record (EHR) and claims data were extracted from seven separate databases. Parallel analyses were undertaken on data extracted from each source. Each analysis examined time to mortality in hospitalized patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and the two in combination as compared to patients not treated with either drug. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and propensity score methods were undertaken to adjust for confounding. Frequencies of adverse events in each treatment group were also examined. Results: Neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin, alone or in combination, were significantly associated with time to mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. No treatment groups appeared to have an elevated risk of adverse events. Conclusion: Administration of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and their combination appeared to have no effect on time to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Continued research is needed to clarify best practices surrounding treatment of COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pandora-based muon neutrino disappearance search in the SBN program with 1muonNp quasi-elastic like channel

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab aims to perform a definitive search for light sterile neutrinos using multiple liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. We present the status of an analysis of muon neutrino charged-current interactions in two SBN detectors (SBND and ICARUS), selecting fully contained events with one muon and at least one proton in the final state, inspired by the recent ICARUS standalone results. This topology-driven selection reduces dependence on neutrino interaction cross-section modeling while preserving high statistics and good neutrino energy resolution, enabled by robust reconstruction and particle identification. Fully contained events enable precise kinematic reconstruction and support relative measurements between detectors, directly addressing the core goals of the SBN program. A detailed evaluation of systematic uncertainties is currently underway, with the objective of reducing the dominant systematics to the percent level. The current status of this analysis, with a particular focus on the event selection performance, will be presented in this poster.

Artero Pons, Maria [Padua U.; INFN, Padua]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Correlations to Cs-137 to Reduce Uncertainty in SRS Tank Farm Tc-99 and I-129 Inventories - 19266

Performance Assessment (PA) modeling of the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) shows that iodine-129 (I-129) dominates peaks of potential future doses, followed by contributions from technetium-99 (Tc-99). While these radionuclides are important from a PA perspective, they are relatively unimportant from a safety analysis or occupational exposure perspective. As such, the storage of Tc-99 and I-129 within liquid waste at Savannah River Site (SRS) have not been well tracked, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the estimated inventories of Tc-99 and I-129 used for PA modeling. Alternatively, cesium-137 (Cs-137) is considered a high-risk radionuclide from an occupational exposure perspective and is well characterized. Within the liquid waste at SRS, analyses have shown that concentrations of Cs-137 are closely correlated to both Tc-99 and I-129. These correlations and the abundance of Cs-137 data were leveraged to significantly reduce inventory uncertainty for waste destined to be disposed at the SDF. Previous attempts to mathematically define these correlations had two flaws: (1) the defined correlations failed to address the impact of the relatively short half-life of Cs-137 compared to the long half-lives of Tc-99 and I-129, and (2) the analyses relied on a small number of samples. To address the issue of the decay rate from the short half-life, all Cs-137 concentrations were decayed to a single future date. To improve the number of samples used to develop the correlations, a literature review was performed resulting in a larger data set. The data underwent a validation process, then the correlations were updated. The resulting correlations were used to improve inventory estimates for Tc-99 and I-129 for an ongoing revision to the SDF PA. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A probabilistic inverse prediction method for predicting plutonium processing conditions

In the past decade, nuclear chemists and physicists have been conducting studies to investigate the signatures associated with the production of special nuclear material (SNM). In particular, these studies aim to determine how various processing parameters impact the physical, chemical, and morphological properties of the resulting special nuclear material. By better understanding how these properties relate to the processing parameters, scientists can better contribute to nuclear forensics investigations by quantifying their results and ultimately shortening the forensic timeline. This paper aims to statistically analyze and quantify the relationships that exist between the processing conditions used in these experiments and the various properties of the nuclear end-product by invoking inverse methods. In particular, these methods make use of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surface models in conjunction with Bayesian model calibration techniques to probabilistically determine processing conditions as an inverse function of morphological characteristics. Not only does the model presented in this paper allow for providing point estimates of a sample of special nuclear material, but it also incorporates uncertainty into these predictions. This model proves sufficient for predicting processing conditions within a standard deviation of the observed processing conditions, on average, provides a solid foundation for future work in predicting processing conditions of particles of special nuclear material using only their observed morphological characteristics, and is generalizable to the field of chemometrics for applicability across different materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deciphering Discrepancies: A Comparative Analysis of Docker Image Security

As the use of microservices continues to grow and become a foundational approach to architecting software solutions, ensuring the security of microservices is paramount. Docker images have emerged as the predominant solution to containerize microservices–and thus, Docker images are becoming a large attack surface. Thus, reducing vulnerabilities in Docker images will reduce microservice cyberattacks. A common way to find vulnerabilities in Docker images employs static analysis tools like Trivy and Grype. However, these tools frequently generate disparate vulnerability reports when analyzing the same Docker image, thus causing uncertainty in tool selection. We collected 927 Docker images, analyzed them with Trivy and Grype, and compared the vulnerabilities reported in each image. Among the 865 images found to have vulnerabilities, Trivy and Grype disagreed on both the number of vulnerabilities and the vulnerability IDs found therein. Since both tools interface with external vulnerability databases, some discrepancies can be attributed to how the tools interface with these external resources. The external vulnerability databases partially overlap and frequently contradict one another, thereby creating challenges for static analysis tool developers and end users alike. This New Ideas and Emerging Results (NIER) study contains new and critical information that practitioners need for selecting and using static analysis tools–given that increases in the use of Docker technologies means increases in the size of the attack surfaces.

Boles, Brittany [Montana State University]↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dark Energy Survey Year 3 high-redshift sample: selection, characterization, and analysis of galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT The fiducial cosmological analyses of imaging surveys like DES typically probe the Universe at redshifts z < 1. We present the selection and characterization of high-redshift galaxy samples using DES Year 3 data, and the analysis of their galaxy clustering measurements. In particular, we use galaxies that are fainter than those used in the previous DES Year 3 analyses and a Bayesian redshift scheme to define three tomographic bins with mean redshifts around z ∼ 0.9, 1.2, and 1.5, which extend the redshift coverage of the fiducial DES Year 3 analysis. These samples contain a total of about 9 million galaxies, and their galaxy density is more than 2 times higher than those in the DES Year 3 fiducial case. We characterize the redshift uncertainties of the samples, including the usage of various spectroscopic and high-quality redshift samples, and we develop a machine-learning method to correct for correlations between galaxy density and survey observing conditions. The analysis of galaxy clustering measurements, with a total signal to noise S/N ∼ 70 after scale cuts, yields robust cosmological constraints on a combination of the fraction of matter in the Universe Ωm and the Hubble parameter h, $\Omega _m h = 0.195^{+0.023}_{-0.018}$, and 2–3 per cent measurements of the amplitude of the galaxy clustering signals, probing galaxy bias and the amplitude of matter fluctuations, bσ8. A companion paper (in preparation) will present the cross-correlations of these high-z samples with cosmic microwave background lensing from Planck and South Pole Telescope, and the cosmological analysis of those measurements in combination with the galaxy clustering presented in this work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An International Round-Robin Study on Thermoelectric Module Testing and Development of Standard Power Generation Modules

An international round-robin study on thermoelectric power generation modules was conducted with nine participating laboratories. Two types of commercially available bismuth telluride modules, 30 mm × 30 mm and 40 mm × 40 mm, were used. A test protocol was followed with five temperature set points from 50°C to 150°C. Graphite sheets were used as thermal interface materials with test pressure at 100 psi (0.69 MPa). The results showed large lab-to-lab variations and the key source of uncertainty for module efficiency was identified as the heat flux measurement. In the meantime, significant uncertainty was also found in maximum electrical power (P max ) measurements. As a result of the round-robin, a “standard module” with 4 × 4 legs on a 20 mm × 20 mm platform was suggested. A skutterudite module and a half-Heusler module were produced with identical geometry and 4 mm × 4 mm × 8 mm legs. All transport properties to calculate the figure-of-merit, zT, were measured from ambient temperature to 500°C. Module performance was measured by two laboratories. Two finite-element-analysis (FEA)-based models were developed independently to simulate and predict the module performance. In conclusion, the standard modules eliminated significant test uncertainties and are aimed at assisting device design and achieving more accurate performance predictions.

Round-robin↗