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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to develop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors providing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication sub-missions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Structure Prediction for Infrasound Propagation Modeling Using Deep Learning

Abstract Infrasound is generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasonic waves travel through the dynamic atmosphere, which can change on the order of minutes to hours. Infrasound propagation largely depends on the wind and temperature structure of the atmosphere. Numerical weather prediction models are available to provide atmospheric specifications, but uncertainties in these models exist and they are computationally expensive to run. Machine learning has proven useful in predicting tropospheric weather using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An LSTM network is utilized to make atmospheric specification predictions up to ∼30 km for three different training and testing scenarios: (a) the model is trained and tested using only radiosonde data from the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, (b) the model is trained on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US, excluding the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, which was reserved for testing, and (c) the model is trained and tested on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US. Long Short‐Term Memory predictions are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis model and show cases where the LSTM outperforms, performs equally as well, or underperforms in comparison to the state‐of‐the‐art. Regional and temporal trends in model performance across the US are also discussed. Results suggest that the LSTM model is a viable tool for predicting atmospheric specifications for infrasound propagation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the surface temperature of earth-like planets

We introduce a novel Earth-like planet surface temperature model (ESTM) for habitability studies based on the spatial–temporal distribution of planetary surface temperatures. The ESTM adopts a surface energy balance model (EBM) complemented by: radiative–convective atmospheric column calculations, a set of physically based parameterizations of meridional transport, and descriptions of surface and cloud properties more refined than in standard EBMs. The parameterization is valid for rotating terrestrial planets with shallow atmospheres and moderate values of axis obliquity (ϵ≲45{sup ∘}). Comparison with a 3D model of atmospheric dynamics from the literature shows that the equator-to-pole temperature differences predicted by the two models agree within ≈5 K when the rotation rate, insolation, surface pressure and planet radius are varied in the intervals 0.5≲Ω/Ω{sub ⊕}≲2, 0.75≲S/S{sub ∘}≲1.25, 0.3≲p/(1 bar)≲10, and 0.5≲R/R{sub ⊕}≲2, respectively. The ESTM has an extremely low computational cost and can be used when the planetary parameters are scarcely known (as for most exoplanets) and/or whenever many runs for different parameter configurations are needed. Model simulations of a test-case exoplanet (Kepler-62e) indicate that an uncertainty in surface pressure within the range expected for terrestrial planets may impact the mean temperature by ∼60 K. Within the limits of validity of the ESTM, the impact of surface pressure is larger than that predicted by uncertainties in rotation rate, axis obliquity, and ocean fractions. We discuss the possibility of performing a statistical ranking of planetary habitability taking advantage of the flexibility of the ESTM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guiding the Design of Heterogeneous Electrode Microstructures for Li-Ion Batteries: Microscopic Imaging, Predictive Modeling, and Machine Learning

Electrochemical and mechanical properties of lithium-ion battery materials are heavily dependent on their 3D microstructure characteristics. A quantitative understanding of the role played by stochastic microstructures is critical for the prediction of material properties and for guiding synthesis processes. Furthermore, tailoring microstructure morphology is also a viable way of achieving optimal electrochemical and mechanical performances of lithium-ion cells. To facilitate the establishment of microstructure-resolved modeling and design methods, a review covering spatially and temporally resolved imaging of microstructure and electrochemical phenomena, microstructure statistical characterization and stochastic reconstruction, microstructure-resolved modeling for property prediction, and machine learning for microstructure design is presented here. The perspectives on the unresolved challenges and opportunities in applying experimental data, modeling, and machine learning to improve the understanding of materials and identify paths toward enhanced performance of lithium-ion cells are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Throughput Microfluidics Platform for Intracellular Delivery and Sampling of Biomolecules from Live Cells

Nondestructive cell membrane permeabilization systems enable the intracellular delivery of exogenous biomolecules for cell engineering tasks as well as the temporal sampling of cytosolic contents from live cells for the analysis of dynamic processes. Here, in this paper, we report a microwell array format live-cell analysis device (LCAD) that can perform localized-electroporation induced membrane permeabilization, for cellular delivery or sampling, and directly interfaces with surface-based biosensors for analyzing the extracted contents. We demonstrate the capabilities of the LCAD via an automated high-throughput workflow for multimodal analysis of live-cell dynamics, consisting of quantitative measurements of enzyme activity using self-assembled monolayers for MALDI mass spectrometry (SAMDI) and deep-learning enhanced imaging and analysis. By combining a fabrication protocol that enables robust assembly and operation of multilayer devices with embedded gold electrodes and an automated imaging workflow, we successfully deliver functional molecules (plasmid and siRNA) into live cells at multiple time-points and track their effect on gene expression and cell morphology temporally. Furthermore, we report sampling performance enhancements, achieving saturation levels of protein tyrosine phosphatase activity measured from as few as 60 cells, and demonstrate control over the amount of sampled contents by optimization of electroporation parameters using a lumped model. Lastly, we investigate the implications of cell morphology on electroporation-induced sampling of fluorescent molecules using a deep-learning enhanced image analysis workflow.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Uniform and Half‐Space Models for Magnetic Dipole Sources in a Conducting Medium: I. Theory and Results

Underground nuclear events result in electromagnetic signals near the event location. Of particular interest, because its signal can be potentially enhanced by the use of large cavities to decouple the seismic signal, is the generation of an EMP signal within the nuclear detonation (NUDET) cavity, from the formation of a bubble in the local magnetic field. This mechanism is equivalent to a buried time varying magnetic dipole. In order to model such signals Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing a detailed model for the propagation of RF signals from buried sources to nearby sensors, with a focus on sources that are magnetic dipole in character. In order to validate this code, models for simple geometries involving magnetic dipole sources have been implemented. These models represent the fields from vertical and horizontal dipoles in cylindrical coordinates, either in a uniform linear isotropic electrical medium, or in a space consisting of two half spaces interfacing at the plane z=0, with the upper half space having the electrical properties of free space and the lower half space having arbitrary linear conductivity and electrical permittivity. While primarily intended for the validation of the more detailed model, the shorter turnaround time of these models facilitates the study of the general properties of geomagnetic bubble signals. This report summarizes the theory and example results for those models. The use of the model for model validation is illustrated with the near and surface fields for dipoles with Gaussian time dependence. Also examined are the surface fields expected for the geomagnetic bubble predicted by the numerical model of Kovalenko et al for a 1 kt nuclear detonation. The model of Kovalenko et al was also rescaled to allow comparison with Zablocki’s electric field observations for Bilby, Event III, and Event V. While the rescaled Kovalenko et al model had approximately the right time scale for the duration of the main peak, and a slower fall than rise also in qualitative agreement with the observations, the predicted signals had very different polarizations, were too low by more than an order of magnitude, and had less temporal structure. A simple comparison with the vertical B field data of Sweeney, where the detailed event geometries and yields are classified, but the sensor range and bounds on the yields are given, suggest that the scaled Kovalenko et al model gives too small a peak field compared to observations for that data set as well, except perhaps for the Borate event. A companion report will give a detailed discussion of the implementation and code.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Temporal Characterization of Hydrates System Dynamics beneath Seafloor Mounds. Integrating Time-Lapse Electrical Resistivity Methods and In Situ Observations of Multiple Oceanographic Parameters

This study was designed to investigate temporal variations in hydrate system dynamics by measuring changes in volumes of hydrate beneath hydrate-bearing mounds on the continental slope of the northern Gulf of Mexico, the landward extreme of hydrate occurrence in this region. Direct Current Resistivity (DCR) measurements were made contemporaneously with measurements of oceanographic parameters at Woolsey Mound, a carbonate-hydrate complex on the mid-continental slope, where formation and dissociation of hydrates are most vulnerable to variations in oceanographic parameters affected by climate change, and where changes in hydrate stability can readily translate to loss of seafloor stability, impacts to benthic ecosystems, and venting of greenhouse gases to the water-column, and eventually, the atmosphere. We focused our study on hydrate within seafloor mounds because the structurally-focused methane flux at these sites likely causes hydrate formation and dissociation processes to occur at higher rates than at sites where the methane flux is less concentrated and we wanted to maximize our chances of witnessing association/dissociation of hydrates. We selected a particularly well-studied hydrate-bearing seafloor mound near the landward extent of the hydrate stability zone, Woolsey Mound (MC118). This mid-slope site has been studied extensively and the project was able to leverage considerable resources from the team’s research experience at MC118. The site exhibits seafloor features associated with gas expulsion, hydrates have been documented at the seafloor, and changes in the outcropping hydrates have been documented, photographically, to have occurred over a period of months. We conducted observatory-based, in situ measurements to 1) characterize, geophysically, the sub-bottom distribution of hydrate and its temporal variability, and 2) contemporaneously record relevant environmental parameters (temperature, pressure, salinity, turbidity, bottom currents) to detect short-term changes within the hydrates system, identify relationships/impacts of local oceanographic parameters on the hydrates system, and improve our understanding of how seafloor instability is affected by hydrates-driven changes. A 2009 DCR survey of MC118 demonstrated that we could image resistivity anomalies to a depth of 75m below the seafloor in water depths of 1km. We reconfigured this system to operate autonomously on the seafloor in a pre-programmed mode, for periods of months. We designed and built a novel seafloor lander and deployment capability that would allow us to investigate the seafloor at potential deployment sites and deploy instruments only when conditions met our criteria. This lander held the DCR system, controlling computers, and battery power supply, as well as instruments to record oceanographic parameters. During the first of two cruises to the study site, we conducted resistivity surveying, selected a monitoring site, and deployed the instrumented lander and DCR, centered on what appeared to be the most active locations within the site, programmed to collect a DCR profile, weekly. After a 4.5-month residence on the seafloor, the team recovered all equipment. Unfortunately, several equipment failures occurred prior to recovery of the instrument packages. Prior to the failures, however, two resistivity profiles were collected together with oceanographic data. Results show, unequivocally, that significant changes can occur in both hydrate volume and distribution during time periods as brief as one week. Occurrences appear to be controlled by both deep and near-surface structure. Results have been integrated with seismic data from the area and show correspondence in space of hydrate and structures, including faults and gas chimneys.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning and artificial intelligence for wildfire prediction

Wildfire ignition, intensity, and spread rates are tightly linked with water cycle extremes. The science of wildfire prediction has traditionally encompassed the use of physical and empirical models to quantify the direction and speed of fire spread, plume injection and fire-aerosol impacts on atmospheric composition, predictions of fire season severity on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales, and assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of fire risk across landscapes. Together with expanding observation networks, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to revolutionize the application of such models for fire science, saving lives, protecting critical infrastructure, and providing more accurate estimates of wildfire-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

MO-AB-BRA-08: A Modular Multi-Source X-Ray Tube for Novel Computed Tomography Applications

Purpose: To develop and build a practical implementation of an x-ray line source for the rapidly increasing number of multi-source imaging applications in CT. Methods: An innovative x-ray tube was designed using CST Particle Studio, ANSYS, and SolidWorks. A slowly varying magnetic field is synchronized with microsecond gating of multiple thermionic electron sources. Electrostatic simulations were run to optimize the geometry of the optics and prevent electrode arcing. Magnetostatic simulations were used for beam deflection studies and solenoid design. Particle beam trajectories were explored with an emphasis on focusing, acceleration, deflection, and space charge effects. Thermal constraints were analyzed for both transient and steady-state regimes. Electromagnetic simulations informed the design of a prototype unit under construction. Results: Particle tracking simulations for a benchtop system demonstrate that three 80 keV electron beams are able to be finely controlled and laterally swept a combined distance of 15 cm over a stationary target with an oscillating magnetic field in the hundreds of gauss. The beams are pulsed according to scanning sequences developed for implementation in a mock stationary CT scanner capable of a 30 ms temporal resolution. Beam spot diameters are approximately 1 mm for 30 mA beams and the stationary target stays well within thermal limits. The relevant hardware and control circuits were developed for incorporation into a physical prototype. Conclusion: A new multi-source x-ray tube was designed in a modular form factor to push the barriers of high-speed CT and spur growth in emerging imaging applications. This technology can be used as the basis for a stationary high-speed CT scanner, a system for generating a virtual fan-beam for dose reduction, or for reducing scatter radiation in cone-beam CT utilizing a tetrahedron beam CT geometry. A 2.4 kW benchtop system is currently being built to show proof of concept for the tube. Support for this research was provided by the University of Wisconsin Madison, Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Graduate Education with funding from the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The geophysics, geology and mechanics of slow fault slip

We report that modern geodetic and seismologic observations describe the behavior of fault slip over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Slip at sub-seismogenic speeds is evident from top to bottom of lithospheric faults and plays an important role throughout the earthquake cycle. Where earthquakes and tremor accompany slow slip, they help illuminate the spatiotemporal evolution of fault slip. Geophysical subsurface imaging and geologic field studies provide information about suitable environments of slow slip. In particular, exhumed fault and shear zones from various depths reveal the importance of multiple deformation processes and fault-zone structures. Most geologic examples feature frictionally weak and velocity-strengthening materials, well-developed mineral fabrics, and abundant veining indicative of near-lithostatic fluid pressure. To produce transient slow slip events and tremor, in addition to the presence of high-pressure fluids a heterogeneous fault-zone structure, composition, and/or metamorphic assemblage may be needed. Laboratory and computational models suggest that velocity-weakening slip patches smaller than a critical dimension needed for earthquake nucleation will also fail in slow slip events. Changes in fluid pressure or slip rate can cause a fault to transition between stable and unstable fault slip behavior. Lastly, future interdisciplinary investigations of slow fault slip, directly integrating geophysical, geological and modeling investigations, will further improve our understanding of the dynamics of slow slip and aid in providing more accurate earthquake hazard characterizations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Angular-spatial hp -adaptivity for radiative transfer with discontinuous Galerkin spectral element methods

Radiative transfer is important for many science and engineering applications, and numerical simulations of radiative transfer can be challenging. For instance, the radiation field is seven-dimensional – three spatial, two angular, one wavelength, and one temporal – and often features steep gradients. Therefore, memory usage is a key issue. To reduce memory, some past work has investigated the use of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), typically for either the spatial or angular coordinate, and typically for only h -adaptivity. Here, we propose the use of AMR for the spatial and angular coordinates together, and the use of h - and p -adaptivity together as hp -AMR for the potential for further memory savings. We implemented the proposed method for several test cases in two spatial and one angular dimension, with the discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. These test cases featured highly anisotropic angular radiation, with or without steep spatial gradients. Our primary findings from these test cases were: (1) Angular hp -adaptivity can deliver the radiation solution with the same accuracy as, and with much less computational memory than, uniform angular h - or p -refinements, or angular h -adaptivity alone. This is most obvious when the incoming radiation is highly anisotropic, in which case the savings can be orders of magnitude. (2) Full spatial-angular hp -adaptivity is more efficient in solution representation, compared to solely spatial or solely angular -adaptivity. This is most evident when steep gradients are present in both the spatial and angular distribution. These results suggest that adaptive spatial- hp angular-refinement may perform well in large-scale seven-dimensional applications.

Adaptive refinement↗
DOE OSTI2016

Visibility graphlet approach to chaotic time series

Many novel methods have been proposed for mapping time series into complex networks. Although some dynamical behaviors can be effectively captured by existing approaches, the preservation and tracking of the temporal behaviors of a chaotic system remains an open problem. In this work, we extended the visibility graphlet approach to investigate both discrete and continuous chaotic time series. We applied visibility graphlets to capture the reconstructed local states, so that each is treated as a node and tracked downstream to create a temporal chain link. Our empirical findings show that the approach accurately captures the dynamical properties of chaotic systems. Networks constructed from periodic dynamic phases all converge to regular networks and to unique network structures for each model in the chaotic zones. Furthermore, our results show that the characterization of chaotic and non-chaotic zones in the Lorenz system corresponds to the maximal Lyapunov exponent, thus providing a simple and straightforward way to analyze chaotic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stability and response of trapped solitary wave solutions of coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations in an external, $\mathcal{PT}$- and supersymmetric potential

In this work, we present trapped solitary wave solutions of a coupled nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) system in 1 + 1 dimensions in the presence of an external, supersymmetric and complex $\mathcal{PT}$-symmetric potential. The Schrödinger system this work focuses on possesses exact solutions whose existence, stability, and spatio-temporal dynamics are investigated by means of analytical and numerical methods. Two different variational approximations are considered where the stability and dynamics of the solitary waves are explored in terms of eight and twelve time-dependent collective coordinates (CCs). We find regions of stability for specific potential choices as well as analytic expressions for the small oscillation frequencies in the CC approximation. Our findings are further supported by performing systematic numerical simulations of the NLS system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Multi-Band Uncertainty Set Based Robust SCUC With Spatial and Temporal Budget Constraints

The dramatic increase of renewable energy resources in recent years, together with the long-existing load forecast errors and increasingly involved price sensitive demands, has introduced significant uncertainties into power systems operation. In order to guarantee the operational security of power systems with such uncertainties, robust optimization has been extensively studied in security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems, for immunizing the system against worst uncertainty realizations. However, traditional robust SCUC models with single-band uncertainty sets may yield over-conservative solutions in most cases. This paper proposes a multi-band robust model to accurately formulate various uncertainties with higher resolution. By properly tuning band intervals and weight coefficients of individual bands, the proposed multi-band robust model can rigorously and realistically reflect spatial/temporal relationships and asymmetric characteristics of various uncertainties, and in turn could effectively leverage the tradeoff between robustness and economics of robust SCUC solutions. The proposed multi-band robust SCUC model is solved by Benders decomposition (BD) and outer approximation (OA), while taking the advantage of integral property of the proposed multi-band uncertainty set. In addition, several accelerating techniques are developed for enhancing the computational performance and the convergence speed. Numerical studies on a 6-bus system and the modified IEEE 118-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed robust SCUC approach for enhancing uncertainty modeling capabilities and mitigating conservativeness of the robust SCUC solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Breaking Computational Barriers: Real-time Analysis and Optimization with Large-scale Nonlinear Models via Model Reduction

Model reduction for dynamical systems is a promising approach for reducing the computational cost of large-scale physics-based simulations to enable high-fidelity models to be used in many- query (e.g., Bayesian inference) and near-real-time (e.g., fast-turnaround simulation) contexts. While model reduction works well for specialized problems such as linear time-invariant systems, it is much more difficult to obtain accurate, stable, and efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) for systems with general nonlinearities. This report describes several advances that enable nonlinear reduced-order models (ROMs) to be deployed in a variety of time-critical settings. First, we present an error bound for the Gauss-Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) nonlinear model reduction technique. This bound allows the state-space error for the GNAT method to be quantified when applied with the backward Euler time-integration scheme. Second, we present a methodology for preserving classical Lagrangian structure in nonlinear model reduction. This technique guarantees that important properties--such as energy conservation and symplectic time-evolution maps--are preserved when performing model reduction for models described by a Lagrangian formalism (e.g., molecular dynamics, structural dynamics). Third, we present a novel technique for decreasing the temporal complexity --defined as the number of Newton-like iterations performed over the course of the simulation--by exploiting time-domain data. Fourth, we describe a novel method for refining projection-based reduced-order models a posteriori using a goal-oriented framework similar to mesh-adaptive h -refinement in finite elements. The technique allows the ROM to generate arbitrarily accurate solutions, thereby providing the ROM with a 'failsafe' mechanism in the event of insufficient training data. Finally, we present the reduced-order model error surrogate (ROMES) method for statistically quantifying reduced- order-model errors. This enables ROMs to be rigorously incorporated in uncertainty-quantification settings, as the error model can be treated as a source of epistemic uncertainty. This work was completed as part of a Truman Fellowship appointment. We note that much additional work was performed as part of the Fellowship. One salient project is the development of the Trilinos-based model-reduction software module Razor , which is currently bundled with the Albany PDE code and currently allows nonlinear reduced-order models to be constructed for any application supported in Albany. Other important projects include the following: 1. ROMES-equipped ROMs for Bayesian inference: K. Carlberg, M. Drohmann, F. Lu (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), M. Morzfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2. ROM-enabled Krylov-subspace recycling: K. Carlberg, V. Forstall (University of Maryland), P. Tsuji, R. Tuminaro. 3. A pseudo balanced POD method using only dual snapshots: K. Carlberg, M. Sarovar. 4. An analysis of discrete v. continuous optimality in nonlinear model reduction: K. Carlberg, M. Barone, H. Antil (George Mason University). Journal articles for these projects are in progress at the time of this writing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Comprehensive Informative Metric for Analyzing HPC System Status Using the LogSCAN Platform

Log processing by Spark and Cassandra-based ANalytics (LogSCAN) is a newly developed analytical platform that provides flexible and scalable data gathering, transformation and computation. One major challenge is to effectively summarize the status of a complex computer system, such as the Titan supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). Although there is plenty of operational and maintenance information collected and stored in real time, which may yield insights about short- and long-term system status, it is difficult to present this information in a comprehensive form. In this work, we present system information entropy (SIE), a newly developed metric that leverages the powers of traditional machine learning techniques and information theory. By compressing the multivariant multi-dimensional event information recorded during the operation of the targeted system into a single time series of SIE, we demonstrate that the historical system status can be sensitively represented concisely and comprehensively. Given a sharp indicator as SIE, we argue that follow-up analytics based on SIE will reveal in-depth knowledge about system status using other sophisticated approaches, such as pattern recognition in the temporal domain or causality analysis incorporating extra independent metrics of the system.

Hui, Yawei↗