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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Effect of the Prior and the Experimental Design on the Inference of the Precision Matrix in Gaussian Chain Graph Models

Here, we investigate whether (and how) experimental design could aid in the estimation of the precision matrix in a Gaussian chain graph model, especially the interplay between the design, the effect of the experiment and prior knowledge about the effect. Estimation of the precision matrix is a fundamental task to infer biological graphical structures like microbial networks. We compare the marginal posterior precision of the precision matrix under four priors: flat, conjugate Normal-Wishart, Normal-MGIG and a general independent. Under the flat and conjugate priors, the Laplace-approximated posterior precision is not a function of the design matrix rendering useless any efforts to find an optimal experimental design to infer the precision matrix. In contrast, the Normal-MGIG and general independent priors do allow for the search of optimal experimental designs, yet there is a sharp upper bound on the information that can be extracted from a given experiment. We confirm our theoretical findings via a simulation study comparing (i) the KL divergence between prior and posterior and (ii) the Stein’s loss difference of MAPs between random and no experiment. Our findings provide practical advice for domain scientists conducting experiments to better infer the precision matrix as a representation of a biological network.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feedback-Based Fault-Tolerant and Health-Adaptive Optimal Charging of Batteries

The key technology barriers that hinder the growth of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are long charging time, the shorter life-time of EV batteries, and battery safety. Specifically, EV charging protocols have significant effects on battery lifetime and safety. If not charged properly, the battery could end up with shorter life, and more importantly, improper charging can cause battery faults leading to catastrophic failures. To overcome these barriers, we propose a closed-loop feedback based approach, that enables real-time optimal fast charging protocol adaptation to battery health and possess active diagnostic capabilities in the sense that, during charging, it detects real-time faults and takes corrective action to mitigate such fault effects. We utilize battery electrical-thermal model, explicit battery capacity and power fade aging models, and thermal fault model to capture battery behavior. In conjunction with the models, we adopt linear quadratic optimal control techniques to realize the feedback-based control algorithm. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

batteries↗

Real-time hybrid controls of energy storage and load shedding for integrated power and energy systems of ships

This paper presents an original energy management methodology to enhance the resilience of ship power systems. The integration of various energy storage systems (ESS), including battery energy storage systems (BESS) and super-capacitor energy storage systems (SCESS), in modern ship power systems poses challenges in designing an efficient energy management system (EMS). The EMS proposed in this paper aims to achieve multiple objectives. The primary objective is to minimize shed loads, while the secondary objective is to effectively manage different types of ESS. Considering the diverse ramp-rate characteristics of generators, SCESS, and BESS, the proposed EMS exploits these differences to determine an optimal long-term schedule for minimizing shed loads. Furthermore, the proposed EMS balances the state-of-charge (SoC) of ESS and prioritizes the SCESS’s SoC levels to ensure the efficient operation of BESS and SCESS. For better computational efficiency, we introduce the receding horizon optimization method, enabling real-time EMS implementation. Further, a comparison with the fixed horizon optimization (FHO) validates its effectiveness. Simulation studies and results demonstrate that the proposed EMS efficiently manages generators, BESS, and SCESS, ensuring system resilience under generation shortages. Additionally, the proposed methodology significantly reduces the computational burden compared to the FHO technique while maintaining acceptable resilience performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Model Predictive Control of Discrete-Continuous Energy Systems via Generalized Disjunctive Programming

Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) provides an alternative framework to model optimization problems with both discrete and continuous variables. The key idea behind GDP involves the use of logical disjunctions to represent discrete decisions in the continuous space, and logical propositions to denote algebraic constraints in the discrete space. Compared to traditional mixed-integer programming (MIP), the inherent logic structure in GDP yields tighter relaxations that are exploited by global branch and bound algorithms to improve solution quality. In this paper, we present a general GDP model for optimal control of hybrid systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous dynamics. Specifically, we use GDP to formulate a model predictive control (MPC) model for piecewise-affine systems with implicit switching logic. As an example, the GDP-based MPC approach is used as a supervisory control to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings with binary on/off, relay-based thermostats. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, and the improved solution quality compared to existing MIPbased control approaches.

Bhattacharya, Arnab↗

Coordinated frequency regulation among asynchronous AC grids with an MTDC system

With the increasing penetration level of renewable power, the power systems’ inertias are decreasing. To ensure that the frequency is above the threshold of the under frequency load shedding, one effective way is to share the spinning reserves among asynchronous AC grids through HVDC systems. In this paper, a coordinated frequency regulation scheme that enables spinning reserves sharing is proposed for such hybrid AC/DC grids. This scheme is a communication-free method that consists of the droop control, the inertia emulation control and the frequency safety control. The combined response of the three controls can increase not only the frequency nadir but also the settled frequency of the disturbed grid. In addition, the hysteresis comparators and the power injection limits are adopted in the frequency regulation scheme to reduce the coupling effect among AC grids. Thus, under small and harmless disturbance, the frequency regulation scheme will be inactive; the disturbance in strong AC grids would not affect the weak AC systems. The frequency regulation scheme coordinates well with the automatic generation control of the grids. Furthermore, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed frequency regulation scheme are verified through simulation studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On Anomaly Detection for Transactive Energy Systems with Competitive Market

Two anomaly-detection criteria are proposed for transactive energy systems with competitive markets. Participants of transactive energy systems seek an optimal power allocation through hybrid economic-control methods to facilitate the integration of various types of distributed energy resources to power distribution systems. In transactive energy systems, every participant is assumed to be a rational entity, and consumers have diminishing marginal utility and suppliers have increasing marginal cost. With the first proposed anomaly-detection criterion, the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility are examined. The impact of line flow constraints is also taken into consideration. Then, the second anomaly-detection criterion is proposed for TESs with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate. The second criterion is more accurate than the first one for TES with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate, but it requires the knowledge of that rate. Neither criteria requires more data than those necessary to find the optimal power allocation and the market-clear price in a transactive energy system. Therefore, the proposed criteria do not disclose any more data than necessary. As the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility in a TES with competitive markets results in convex objective functions in an optimization problem and strongly convex ones when marginal cost and marginal utility changes faster than a certain rate, the two detection criteria are also applicable to anomaly detection of general convex optimization problems. Simulations are carried out to show the efficacy of the proposed criteria to detect anomalies caused by cyberattacks.

Wang, Peng↗

Microgrid energy scheduling under uncertain extreme weather: Adaptation from parallelized reinforcement learning agents

Microgrids are useful solutions for integrating renewable energy resources and providing seamless green electricity to minimize carbon footprint. In recent years, extreme weather events happened often worldwide and caused significant economic and societal losses. Such events bring uncertainties to the microgrid energy scheduling problems and increase the challenges of microgrid operation. Traditional optimization approaches suffer from the inaccuracy of the uncertain microgrid model and the unseen events. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) - based approaches are also hampered by the limited generalization and the increasing computational burden when stochastic formulations are required to accommodate the uncertainties. This paper proposes a new parallelized reinforcement learning (PRL) method based on the probabilistic events to handle the microgrid energy uncertainties. Specifically, several local learning agents are employed to interact with pertinent microgrid environments in a distributed manner and report outcomes to the global agent, which will optimize microgrid energy resources online during extreme events. The stochastic microgrid energy optimization problem is reformulated to include all possible scenarios with probabilities. The advantage estimate functions of learning agents are designed with a backward sweep to transfer the outcomes to the value function updating process. Two simulation studies, stochastic optimization and online testing, are performed to compare with several existing RL approaches. Results substantiate that the proposed PRL method can achieve up to 20% optimization performance improvement with 4 and 28 times less computation cost than Q-learning with experience replay and multi-agent Q-learning approaches, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyclic loading–unloading impacts on geomechanical stability of multiple salt caverns for underground hydrogen storage

Underground caverns in a salt dome are promising geologic features to store hydrogen because of salt’s extremely low permeability and self-healing behavior. The salt cavern storage community, however, has not fully understood the geomechanical behaviors of salt rock driven by quick operation cycles of injection–production, which may significantly impact the cost-effective storage-recovery performance of multiple caverns. Our field-scale generic model captures the impact of cyclic loading–unloading on the salt creep behavior and deformation under different cycle frequencies, operating pressure, and spatial order of operating cavern(s). This systematic simulation study indicates that the initial operation cycle and arrangement of multiple caverns play a significant role in the creep-driven loss of cavern volumes and cavern deformation. Finally, our future study will develop a new salt constitutive model based on geomechanical tests of site-specific salt rock to probe the cyclic behaviors of salt precisely both beneath and above the dilatancy boundary, including reverse (inverse transient) creep, the Bauschinger effect, and damage-healing mechanism.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Targeted inhibition of MASTL kinase activity induces apoptosis in breast cancer

Microtubule-associated serine/threonine kinase-like (MASTL) (or Greatwall kinase (GWL)) is an important cell cycle regulating kinase that regulates the G2-M transition. Uncontrolled MASTL activity is implicated in breast cancer progression. To date, very few inhibitors have been reported against this protein. Here, structure-based computational modeling indicates that the natural product flavopiridol (FLV) binds strongly to MASTL and these results are validated using molecular dynamics simulation studies. Further, an in vitro kinase assay reveals an EC 50 (effective concentration) value of FLV to be 82.1 nM and a better IC 50 compared to the positive reference compound, staurosporine. FLV is found to inhibit MASTL kinase activity, arresting the cell growth in the G1 phase and inducing apoptosis in breast cancer cells. Consistent with these results differential gene expression obtained using RNA sequencing studies, and validated by RT PCR and immunoblot analysis, indicate that MASTL inhibition induces cell cycle arrest and apoptotic-related genes. Furthermore, metastasis- and inflammation- related genes are downregulated. Thus, the deregulation of MASTL signaling pathways on targeted inhibition of its kinase activity is revealed. This study lays a strong foundation for investigating FLV as a lead compound in breast cancer therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep reinforcement learning for optimal control of induction welding process

Optimizing induction welding (IW) process parameters for the application of joining thermoplastic composites is challenging as it requires achieving complex spatiotemporal thermal characteristics along the weld-line to obtain desired weld quality. We formulate an optimal control problem which captures these requirements and seeks to optimize the IW coil speed using a fast-acting dynamic IW process model. We develop a novel Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) framework to solve this computationally challenging control problem and demonstrate via simulation study that the learned DRL feedback control policy results in better spatiotemporal thermal characteristics as compared to the current state-of-the-art.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiplicity trigger detector for the S π RIT experiment

A multiplicity trigger detector (MTD) was developed for the SπRIT experiment that aims to probe the high- density symmetry energy via heavy-ion collisions (HICs). The MTD is designed to measure the charged-particle multiplicity in HICs to provide a trigger signal that can be used to select high-multiplicity events induced by central collisions. The MTD consists of two side-walls segmented into 30 plastic scintillation paddles, each equipped with a multi-pixel photon counter. A custom board with EASIROC front-end ASIC is used as readout electronics. A multiplicity logic signal is generated by an on-board FPGA that processes the discriminated signals from EASIROCs. The overall latency of the whole detector system for outputting the trigger is less than 100 ns, including 52 ns of electronics latency for processing the signals. During the measurement of 112 Sn + 124 Sn reactions at an incident energy of 270 MeV/nucleon, the minimum multiplicity threshold of the MTD was set to 4, where the overall trigger efficiency was obtained to be about 39 % for inclusive nuclear reactions. Furthermore, a simulation study with a numerical calculation of HICs found that the central collisions of impact parameters of less than 4 fm can be triggered with a high efficiency of more than 95 % by the experimental trigger condition.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Exclusive J/$\psi$ detection and physics with ECCE

The EIC Comprehensive Chromodynamics Experiment (ECCE) detector has been recommended as a reference design for the proposed Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) program. Here, this paper presents simulation studies of exclusive J/$\psi$ detection and selected physics impact results in EIC using the projected ECCE detector concept. Exclusive quarkonium photoproduction is one of the most popular processes in EIC, which has a large cross section and a simple final state. Due to the gluonic nature of the exchange Pomeron, this process can be related to the gluon distributions in the nucleus. Preliminary results estimate the excellent statistics benefited from the large cross section of J/$\psi$ photoproduction and superior performance of ECCE detector concept. The precise measurement of exclusive J/$\psi$ photoproduction at EIC will help us to more deeply understand nuclear gluon distributions, near threshold production mechanism and nucleon mass structure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Search for e → τ charged lepton flavor violation at the EIC with the ECCE detector

The recently approved Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) will provide a unique new opportunity for searches of charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) and other new physics scenarios. In contrast to the e ↔ μ CLFV transition for which very stringent limits exist, there is still a relatively large discovery space for the e → τ CLFV transition, potentially to be explored by the EIC. Here, with the latest detector design of ECCE (EIC Comprehensive Chromodynamics Experiment) and projected integral luminosity of the EIC, we find the τ-leptons created in the DIS process ep → τX are expected to be identified with high efficiency. A first ECCE simulation study, restricted to the 3-prong τ-decay mode and with limited statistics for the Standard Model backgrounds, estimates that the EIC will be able to improve the current exclusion limit on e → τ CLFV by an order of magnitude. As a result, the very high vertex resolution of the ECCE detector configuration plays a critical role in τ identification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

STOPGAP—A time-of-flight extension for the Belle II TOP barrel PID system

The Belle II barrel region is instrumented with the Time of Propagation (TOP) particle identification system. Due to its mechanical design, the individual TOP modules do not overlap, leaving a gap of around 2 cm between them in the azimuthal direction. This leads to a 6%–9% drop in acceptance, depending on the track’s momentum. We propose a solution to remedy these gaps by instrumenting them with fast silicon detectors to directly measure the time-of-flight of traversing particles. We present here a simulation study discussing the performance requirements and the possible sensor technologies, and we demonstrate that such a project could be realized with novel, fast monolithic CMOS sensors, or alternatively AC-LGAD sensors, both of which are expected to reach MIP timing resolutions of down to 50 ps or better.

Hartbrich, Oskar↗

Feasibility of using crystal channeling for the beam loss mitigation in slow extraction at 8GeV

In the accelerator applications of slow extraction for High Energy Physics (HEP), one of the prime challenges is the mitigation of beam losses, which is becoming increasingly critical with the continuous rise in beam power. A significant breakthrough was achieved earlier at CERN through the successful deployment of proton beam channeling in a crystal at 400GeV, effectively diverting the beam away from extraction septa and offering new avenues for improving slow extraction efficiency. However, a crucial question remains whether this approach is still effective at lower and medium proton beam energies. In this paper, we present the promising results of the computer simulation studies of the septum shadowing at 8GeV for the Mu2e project slow extraction at Fermilab. In conclusion, across the wide range of beam parameters, the beam loss reduction is shown to range between 40% and factor of three.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗