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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Characterization of Surface Discharges in Insulating Material for Spacers: Electrode Shape, Discharge Mode, and Revision of the Creepage Concept

In the design of MV AC and DC spacers, the predominant factors are surface and interface conditions. Design is generally carried out on specifications and standards which are based on long-term experience and lab testing. However, the diffusion of power electronics with a trend to increase electric field, switching frequency, and rise time to achieve higher power density calls for an innovative, global approach to optimized insulation system design. A new methodology, based on field simulation, discharge modeling, and partial discharge inception measurements, called the three-leg approach, can form the basis to optimize insulation design for any type of supply voltage waveform. This paper focuses on the influence of the type of electrode on the inception and phenomenology of surface discharges and, as a consequence, on the interpretation of the results used for application of the three-leg approach. It is demonstrated that a typical electrode system used for insulating material testing can generate both gas and surface discharges at the triple point, when the electrodes have a smooth profile that is used to avoid corona or flashover. Hence, testing partial discharge may not provide a straightforward indication of the surface discharge inception and, thus, be partially misleading for insulation design. Another takeover is that such analysis must benefit from PD testing tools endowed with analytics able to provide automatic identification of the type of defect generating PD, i.e., internal, surface, and corona, since design and remedy actions can be taken, and adequate insulating materials developed, only knowing the type of source generating PD. Hence, testing partial discharge may not provide a straightforward indication of surface discharge inception and, thus, be partially misleading for insulation design. In addition to the importance of the three-leg approach to favor reliable and optimized design of insulation systems, there is a clear need to have a PD testing tool endowed with analytics. It should preferably be able to provide automatic identification of the type of defect generating PD, i.e., internal, surface, and corona.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2006

Comprehensive Environmental Informatics System (CEIS) Integrating Crew and Vehicle Environmental Health

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems have been pursued as highly integrated systems that include smart sensors, diagnostic and prognostics software for assessments of real-time and life-cycle vehicle health information. Inclusive to such a system is the requirement to monitor the environmental health within the vehicle and the occupants of the vehicle. In this regard an enterprise approach to informatics is used to develop a methodology entitled, Comprehensive Environmental Informatics System (CEIS). The hardware and software technologies integrated into this system will be embedded in the vehicle subsystems, and maintenance operations, to provide both real-time and life-cycle health information of the environment within the vehicle cabin and of its occupants. This comprehensive information database will enable informed decision making and logistics management. One key element of the CEIS is interoperability for data acquisition and archive between environment and human system monitoring. With comprehensive components the data acquired in this system will use model based reasoning systems for subsystem and system level managers, advanced on-board and ground-based mission and maintenance planners to assess system functionality. Knowledge databases of the vehicle health state will be continuously updated and reported for critical failure modes, and routinely updated and reported for life cycle condition trending. Sufficient intelligence, including evidence-based engineering practices which are analogous to evidencebased medicine practices, will be included in the CEIS to result in more rapid recognition of off-nominal operation to enable quicker corrective actions. This will result from better information (rather than just data) for improved crew/operator situational awareness, which will produce significant vehicle and crew safety improvements, as well as increasing the chance for mission success, future mission planning as well as training. Other benefits include improved reliability, increase safety in operations and cost of operations. The cost benefits stem from significantly reduced processing and operations manpower, predictive maintenance for systems and subjects. The improvements in vehicle functionality and cost will result from increased prognostic and diagnostic capability due to the detailed total human exploration system health knowledge from CEIS. A collateral benefit is that there will be closer observations of the vehicle occupants as wrist watch sized devices are worn for continuous health monitoring. Additional database acquisition will stem from activities in countermeasure practices to ensure peak performance capability by occupants of the vehicle. The CEIS will provide data from advanced sensing technologies and informatics modeling which will be useful in problem troubleshooting, and improving NASA s awareness of systems during operation.

Nall, Mark E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convergence of micro-geochemistry and micro-geomechanics towards understanding proppant shale rock interaction: A Caney shale case study in southern Oklahoma, USA

As a direct outcome of economic development coupled with an increase in population, global energy demand will continue to rise in the coming decades. Although renewable energy sources are increasingly investigated for optimal production, the immediate needs require focus on energy sources that are currently available and reliable, with a minimal environmental impact; the efficient exploration and production of unconventional hydrocarbon resources is bridging the energy needs and energy aspirations, during the current energy transition period. The main challenges are related to the accurate quantification of the critical rock properties that influence production, their heterogeneity and the multiscale driven physico-chemical nature of rock–fluid interactions. A key feature of shale reservoirs is their low permeability due to dominating nanoporosity of the clay-rich matrix. As a means of producing these reservoirs in a cost-effective manner, a prerequisite is creation of hydraulic fracture networks capable of the highest level of continued conductivity. Fracturing fluid chemical design, formation brine geochemical composition, and rock mineralogy all contribute to swelling-induced conductivity damage. The Caney Shale is an organic-rich, often calcareous mudrock. Many studies have examined the impact that clay has on different kinds of shale productivity but there is currently no data reported on the Caney Shale in relation to horizontal drilling; all reported data on the Caney Shale is on vertical wells which are shallow, compared to an emerging play that is at double the depth. Here, in this work we develop geochemical–geomechanical integration of rock properties at micro-and nanoscales that can provide insights into the potential proppant embedment and its mitigation. The novel methodology amalgamates the following: computed X-ray tomography, scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy, micro-indentation, and Raman spectroscopy techniques. Here, our results show that due to the multiscale heterogeneity in the Caney Shale, these geochemical and structural properties translate into a variation in mechanical properties that will impact interaction between the proppant and the host shale rock.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of PuO 2 film thickness by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) calibration curve method

Plutonium (Pu) surfaces are highly reactive toward oxygen containing species and, therefore, invariably covered with oxides (e.g. PuO 2 ) during transport and handling. The actual thickness of the surface oxide may dictate if a plutonium part is suitable for a certain application. As a result, a cost-effective, quick, non-destructive, yet reliable means to measure the oxide layer thickness formed on Pu samples is desirable. In this study, the cross-sections of a series of room temperature grown oxides on Pu samples were trenched by focus ion beam (FIB) then observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to measure the surface oxide thicknesses, which were then combined with the corresponding oxygen k-ratios provided by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) to form calibration curves. Oxide thickness measurements for the calibration curves were made on samples within the typical SEM observable range for PuO 2 (35–400 nm). The portion of the calibration curve in the thinner oxide region (<35 nm) were approximated via Pouchou and Pichoir’s Φ(ρz) theory. Two specimens with micrometer-thick PuO 2 standards (one formed at room temperature and the other at higher temperature with a higher level of crystallinity) were made for the k-ratios in this study, allowing EPMA users to choose the standard that best suits their needs. If the surface corrosion is known to be PuO 2 (from the environment in which the Pu sample is stored) or if the stoichiometry of the surface oxide is confirmed by a preliminary/compliment technique, these calibration curves allow EPMA users to quickly and efficiently determine PuO 2 thicknesses from the measured oxygen k-ratios of their samples. The methodology presented in this study can also be used as a template for creating calibration curves for oxides grown on other actinides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2005

Fluorescent Approaches to High Throughput Crystallography

X-ray crystallography remains the primary method for determining the structure of macromolecules. The first requirement is to have crystals, and obtaining them is often the rate-limiting step. The numbers of crystallization trials that are set up for any one protein for structural genomics, and the rate at which they are being set up, now overwhelm the ability for strictly human analysis of the results. Automated analysis methods are now being implemented with varying degrees of success, but these typically cannot reliably extract intermediate results. By covalently modifying a subpopulation, 51%, of a macromolecule solution with a fluorescent probe, the labeled material will add to a growing crystal as a microheterogeneous growth unit. Labeling procedures can be readily incorporated into the final stages of purification. The covalently attached probe will concentrate in the crystal relative to the solution, and under fluorescent illumination the crystals show up as bright objects against a dark background. As crystalline packing is more dense than amorphous precipitate, the fluorescence intensity can be used as a guide in distinguishing different types of precipitated phases, even in the absence of obvious crystalline features, widening the available potential lead conditions in the absence of clear hits. Non-protein structures, such as salt crystals, will not incorporate the probe and will not show up under fluorescent illumination. Also, brightly fluorescent crystals are readily found against less fluorescent precipitated phases, which under white light illumination may serve to obscure the crystals. Automated image analysis to find crystals should be greatly facilitated, without having to first define crystallization drop boundaries and by having the protein or protein structures all that show up. The trace fluorescently labeled crystals will also emit with sufficient intensity to aid in the automation of crystal alignment using relatively low cost optics, further increasing throughput at synchrotrons. This presentation will focus on the methodology for fluorescent labeling, the crystallization results, and the effects of the trace labeling on the crystal quality.

Pusey, Marc L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Fluorescent Approaches to High Throughput Crystallography

X-ray crystallography remains the primary method for determining the structure of macromolecules. The first requirement is to have crystals, and obtaining them is often the rate-limiting step. The numbers of crystallization trials that are set up for any one protein for structural genomics, and the rate at which they are being set up, now overwhelm the ability for strictly human analysis of the results. Automated analysis methods are now being implemented with varying degrees of success, but these typically can not reliably extract intermediate results. By covalently modifying a subpopulation, less than or = 1%, of a macromolecule solution with a fluorescent probe, the labeled material will add to a growing crystal as a microheterogeneous growth unit. Labeling procedures can be readily incorporated into the final stages of purification. The covalently attached probe will concentrate in the crystal relative to the solution, and under fluorescent illumination the crystals show up as bright objects against a dark background. As crystalline packing is more dense than amorphous precipitate, the fluorescence intensity can be used as a guide in distinguishing different types of precipitated phases, even in the absence of obvious crystalline features, widening the available potential lead conditions in the absence of clear "hits." Non-protein structures, such as salt crystals, will not incorporate the probe and will not show up under fluorescent illumination. Also, brightly fluorescent crystals are readily found against less fluorescent precipitated phases, which under white light illumination may serve to obscure the crystals. Automated image analysis to find crystals should be greatly facilitated, without having to first define crystallization drop boundaries and by having the protein or protein structures all that show up. The trace fluorescently labeled crystals will also emit with sufficient intensity to aid in the automation of crystal alignment using relatively low cost optics, further increasing throughput at synchrotrons. This presentation will focus on the methodology for fluorescent labeling, the crystallization results, and the effects of the trace labeling on the crystal quality.

Pusey, Marc L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Physical Model to Estimate Snowfall over Land using AMSU-B Observations

In this study, we present an improved physical model to retrieve snowfall rate over land using brightness temperature observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit-B (AMSU-B) at 89 GHz, 150 GHz, 183.3 +/- 1 GHz, 183.3 +/- 3 GHz, and 183.3 +/- 7 GHz. The retrieval model is applied to the New England blizzard of March 5, 2001 which deposited about 75 cm of snow over much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and northern New York. In this improved physical model, prior retrieval assumptions about snowflake shape, particle size distributions, environmental conditions, and optimization methodology have been updated. Here, single scattering parameters for snow particles are calculated with the Discrete-Dipole Approximation (DDA) method instead of assuming spherical shapes. Five different snow particle models (hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and three different kinds of aggregates) are considered. Snow particle size distributions are assumed to vary with air temperature and to follow aircraft measurements described by previous studies. Brightness temperatures at AMSU-B frequencies for the New England blizzard are calculated using these DDA calculated single scattering parameters and particle size distributions. The vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, relative humidity and hydrometeors are provided by MM5 model simulations. These profiles are treated as the a priori data base in the Bayesian retrieval algorithm. In algorithm applications to the blizzard data, calculated brightness temperatures associated with selected database profiles agree with AMSU-B observations to within about +/- 5 K at all five frequencies. Retrieved snowfall rates compare favorably with the near-concurrent National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity measurements. The relationships between the NWS radar measured reflectivities Z(sub e) and retrieved snowfall rate R for a given snow particle model are derived by a histogram matching technique. All of these Z(sub e)-R relationships fall in the range of previously established Z(sub e)-R relationships for snowfall. This suggests that the current physical model developed in this study can reliably estimate the snowfall rate over land using the AMSU-B measured brightness temperatures.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human and Technology Integration Evaluation of Advanced Automation and Data Visualization

While the existing United States (U.S.) light water reactors are highly reliable, safe, and provide a significant proportion of carbon-free electricity, the cost of operating and maintaining them has become less competitive compared to other electricity generating sources. The reason for the gap in operating and maintenance (O&M) costs can be at least in part attributed to the advent of new digital technologies that other electricity generating industries are currently using. Advanced capabilities including digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems, advanced automation and analytics, and greater span of data integration (i.e., connectedness) across these non-nuclear plants has transformed the way work is performed and ultimately given them a competitive advantage in terms of the cost required for operating, maintaining, and supporting them. To reduce O&M cost and address obsolescence of the aging I&C infrastructure of the existing U.S. light water reactors, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeting multidisciplinary research that 1) delivers a sustainable business model to enable a cost-competitive U.S. nuclear industry and 2) is developing technology modernization solutions that address aging and obsolescence challenges. The work described in this report supports these two objectives and describes the demonstration of human and technology integration across recent industry collaborations to support their large-scale digital I&C modifications. This technical report describes the demonstration of the human and technology integration methodology in performing full-scale performance-based human-in-the-loop tests to evaluate plant-specific advanced automation and data visualization applications within these collaborators’ digital modifications. This technical report also documents future applications of human and technology integration that expand beyond main control room modernization and digital I&C upgrades, which have been a central focus to date. Thus, this technical report discusses how to implement human and technology integration across new business opportunities and how to develop an evaluation plan that defines measures and criteria, and documents key assumptions to support full plant modernization.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Fluorescent Approaches to High Throughput Crystallography

X-ray crystallography remains the primary method for determining the structure of macromolecules. The first requirement is to have crystals, and obtaining them is often the rate-limiting step. The numbers of crystallization trials that are set up for any one protein for structural genomics, and the rate at which they are being set up, now overwhelm the ability for strictly human analysis of the results. Automated analysis methods are now being implemented with varying degrees of success, but these typically cannot reliably extract intermediate results. By covalently modifying a subpopulation, less than or = 1%, of a macromolecule solution with a fluorescent probe, the labeled material will add to a growing crystal as a microheterogeneous growth unit. Labeling procedures can be readily incorporated into the final stages of a macromolecules purification. The covalently attached probe will concentrate in the crystal relative to the solution, and under fluorescent illumination the crystals will show up as bright objects against a dark background. As crystalline packing is more dense than amorphous precipitate, the fluorescence intensity can be used as a guide in distinguishing different types of precipitated phases, even in the absence of obvious crystalline features, widening the available potential lead conditions in the absence of clear "bits." Non-protein structures, such as salt crystals, will not incorporate the probe and will not show up under fluorescent illumination. Also, brightly fluorescent crystals are readily found against less fluorescent precipitated phases, which under white light illumination may serve to obscure the crystals. Automated image analysis to find crystals should be greatly facilitated, without having to first define crystallization drop boundaries and by having the protein or protein structures all that show up. The trace fluorescently labeled crystals will also emit with sufficient intensity to aid in the automation of crystal alignment using relatively low cost optics, further increasing throughput at synchrotrons. This presentation will focus on the methodology for fluorescent labeling, the crystallization results, and the effects of the trace labeling on the crystal quality.

Minamitani, Elizabeth Forsythe↗
NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Liner Design Methodology and Relevant Results of Acoustic Suppression in the Farfield for Mixer-Ejector Nozzles

We have developed a process to predict noise field interior to the ejector and in the farfield for any liner design for a mixer-ejector of arbitrary scale factor. However, a number of assumptions, not verified for the current application, utilized in this process, introduce uncertainties in the final result, especially, on a quantitative basis. The normal impedance model for bulk with perforated facesheet is based on homogeneous foam materials of low resistivity. The impact of flow conditions for HSCT application as well as the impact of perforated facesheet on predicted impedance is not properly accounted. Based on the measured normal impedance for deeper bulk samples (i.e., 2.0 in.) the predicted reactance is much higher compared to the data at frequencies above 2 kHz for T-foam and 200 ppi SiC. The resistance is under predicted at lower frequencies (below 4 kHz) for these samples. Thus, the use of such predicted data in acoustic suppression is likely to introduce inaccuracies. It should be noted that the impedance prediction methods developed recently under liner technology program are not utilized in the studies described in this report due to the program closeout. Acoustic suppression prediction is based on the uniform flow and temperature conditions in a two-sided treated constant area rectangular duct. In addition, assumptions of equal energy per mode noise field and interaction of all frequencies with the treated surface for the entire ejector length may not be accurate. While, the use of acoustic transfer factor minimizes the inaccuracies associated with the prediction for a known test case, the assumption of the same factor for other liner designs and with different linear scale factor ejectors seems to be very optimistic. As illustrated in appendix D that the predicted noise suppression for LSM-1 is lower compared to the measured data is an indication of the above argument. However, the process seems to be more reliable when used for the same scale models for different liner designs as demonstrated for Gen. 1 mixer-ejectors.

Salikuddin, M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Validation of a Pressure-Based Combustion Simulation Tool Using a Single Element Injector Test Problem

The traditional design and analysis practice for advanced propulsion systems, particularly chemical rocket engines, relies heavily on expensive full-scale prototype development and testing. Over the past decade, use of high-fidelity analysis and design tools such as CFD early in the product development cycle has been identified as one way to alleviate testing costs and to develop these devices better, faster and cheaper. Increased emphasis is being placed on developing and applying CFD models to simulate the flow field environments and performance of advanced propulsion systems. This necessitates the development of next generation computational tools which can be used effectively and reliably in a design environment by non-CFD specialists. A computational tool, called Loci-STREAM is being developed for this purpose. It is a pressure-based, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver for generalized unstructured grids, which is designed to handle all-speed flows (incompressible to hypersonic) and is particularly suitable for solving multi-species flow in fixed-frame combustion devices. Loci-STREAM integrates proven numerical methods for generalized grids and state-of-the-art physical models in a novel rule-based programming framework called Loci which allows: (a) seamless integration of multidisciplinary physics in a unified manner, and (b) automatic handling of massively parallel computing. The objective of the ongoing work is to develop a robust simulation capability for combustion problems in rocket engines. As an initial step towards validating this capability, a model problem is investigated in the present study which involves a gaseous oxygen/gaseous hydrogen (GO2/GH2) shear coaxial single element injector, for which experimental data are available. The sensitivity of the computed solutions to grid density, grid distribution, different turbulence models, and different near-wall treatments is investigated. A refined grid, which is clustered in the vicinity of the solid walls as well as the flame, is used to obtain a steady state solution which may be considered as the best solution attainable with the steady-state RANS methodology. From a design point of view, quick turnaround times are desirable; with this in mind, coarser grids are also employed and the resulting solutions are evaluated with respect to the fine grid solution.

Thakur, Siddarth↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1999

Advanced Techniques for Assessment of Postural and Locomotor Ataxia, Spatial Orientation, and Gaze Stability

In addition to adapting to microgravity, major neurovestibular problems of space flight include postflight difficulties with standing, walking, turning corners, and other activities that require stable upright posture and gaze stability. These difficulties inhibit astronauts' ability to stand or escape from their vehicle during emergencies. The long-ter7n goal of the NSBRI is the development of countermeasures to ameliorate the effects of long duration space flight. These countermeasures must be tested with valid and reliable tools. This project aims to develop quantitative, parametric approaches for assessing gaze stability and spatial orientation during normal gait and when gait is perturbed. Two of this year's most important findings concern head fixation distance and ideal trajectory analysis. During a normal cycle of walking the head moves up and down linearly. A simultaneous angular pitching motion of the head keeps it aligned toward an imaginary point in space at a distance of about one meter in front of a subject and along the line of march. This distance is called the head fixation distance. Head fixation distance provides the fundamental framework necessary for understanding the functional significance of the vestibular reflexes that couple head motion to eye motion. This framework facilitates the intelligent design of counter-measures for the effects of exposure to microgravity upon the vestibular ocular reflexes. Ideal trajectory analysis is a simple candidate countermeasure based upon quantifying body sway during repeated up and down stair stepping. It provides one number that estimates the body sway deviation from an ideal sinusoidal body sway trajectory normalized on the subject's height. This concept has been developed with NSBRI funding in less than one year. These findings are explained in more detail below. Compared to assessments of the vestibuo-ocular reflex, analysis of vestibular effects on locomotor function is relatively less well developed and quantified. We are improving this situation by applying methodologies such as nonlinear orbital stability to quantify responses and by using multivariate statistical approaches to link together the responses across separate tests. In this way we can exploit the information available and increase the ability to discriminate between normal and pathological responses. Measures of stability and orientation are compared to measures such as dynamic visual acuity and with balance function tests. The responses of normal human subjects and of patients having well documented pathophysiologies are being characterized. When these studies are completed, we should have a clearer idea about normal and abnormal patterns of eye, head, and body movements during locomotion and their stability in a wide range of environments. We plan eventually to use this information to validate the efficacy of candidate neurovestibular and neuromuscular rehabilitative techniques. Some representative studies made during this year are summarized.

Wall, Conrad., III↗
NASA NTRS2006

Converging Indicators for Assessing Individual Differences in Adaptation to Extreme Environments: Preliminary Report

This paper describes the development and validation of a new methodology for assessing the deleterious effects of spaceflight on crew health and performance. It is well known that microgravity results in various physiological alterations, e.g., headward fluid shifts which can impede physiological adaptation. Other factors that may affect crew operational efficiency include disruption of sleep-wake cycles, high workload, isolation, confinement, stress and fatigue. From an operational perspective, it is difficult to predict which individuals will be most or least affected in this unique environment given that most astronauts are first-time flyers. During future lunar and Mars missions space crews will include both men and women of multi-national origins, different professional backgrounds, and various states of physical condition. Therefore, new methods or technologies are needed to monitor and predict astronaut performance and health, and to evaluate the effects of various countermeasures on crew during long duration missions. This paper reviews several studies conducted in both laboratory and operational environments with men and women ranging in age between 18 to 50 years. The studies included the following: soldiers performing command and control functions during mobile operations in enclosed armored vehicles; subjects participating in laboratory tests of an anti-motion sickness medication; subjects exposed to chronic hypergravity aboard a centrifuge, and subject responses to 36-hours of sleep deprivation. Physiological measurements, performance metrics, and subjective self-reports were collected in each study. The results demonstrate that multivariate converging indicators provide a significantly more reliable method for assessing environmental effects on performance and health than any single indicator.

Cowings, Patricia S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Satellite Optical Remote Sensing of Clouds and Aerosols: From Particle Single-Scattering and Gaseous Absorption Through Radiative Transfer to Retrieval Products

Clouds and aerosols are fundamental regulators of Earth’s radiation budget and climate system, influencing both solar and terrestrial radiation through scattering, absorption, and emission processes. Accurate characterization of their physical and radiative properties from space requires a rigorous understanding of particle single-scattering, gaseous absorption, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, as well as reliable inversion methods. This review synthesizes the physical foundations and algorithmic implementations of satellite-based passive optical remote sensing of clouds and aerosols, spanning the ultraviolet to thermal infrared spectral range. Beginning with electromagnetic scattering theory and state-of-the-art methods for computing single-scattering by nonspherical particles and computationally efficient methods for accounting for atmospheric absorption, we discuss the radiative transfer framework underpinning cloud and aerosol retrievals. The connection between single-scattering and multiple-scattering is rigorously formulated. We then summarize operational and research-grade retrieval techniques, including cloud masking and thermodynamic phase determination, CO₂ slicing for cloud-top pressure, the Nakajima-King shortwave bi-spectral, and infrared split-window approaches for cloud optical thickness and effective particle size, inversion algorithms for determining aerosol properties from multi-spectral and/or multi-angle radiometric and polarimetric measurements, and active-passive sensing synergy. Examples of the global cloud and aerosol climatologies are illustrated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Furthermore, the unique strengths of active remote sensing techniques based on spaceborne lidar observations are briefly elaborated in the context of studying ice clouds composed of randomly and horizontally oriented ice crystals, which is a significant challenge for conventional passive remote sensing techniques. By connecting physical theory to practical retrievals, this review highlights both the maturity of current methodologies and the remaining challenges in reducing uncertainties in particle morphology, vertical structure, absorption, and aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on atmospheric remote sensing is briefly addressed.

Aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method

Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.

Yang, Jiahui↗