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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Exploiting Earth Observations to Enable Groundwater Modeling in the Data-Sparse Region of Goulbi Maradi, Niger
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Bayesian calibration of management practices for a crop model implemented in a subsistence farming region
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Coupled social and infrastructure approaches for enhancing solar energy adoption. Final Report
The goal of this project was to work with rural electric cooperatives to facilitate the diffusion of solar energy adoption in households located in the rural and semi-urban areas of Virginia by identifying social and behavioral factors that might be unique to rural regions; and develop a model to calculate the solar adoption propensity score for household based on their demographics, social and behavioral characteristics which would provide an objective metric to cooperatives that can be further used to do targeted marketing of rooftop solar panels. This was achieved through the following tasks: (1) Conducted a survey of the members of Virginia electric cooperatives to identify demographic, social, financial and behavioral attributes of individuals who are likely to adopt rooftop solar panels. (2) Developed a highly detailed, data-driven, agent-based model of the population of Virginia, focusing on the rural regions. (3) Developed diffusion models that use social, behavioral, and demographic factors, and peer effects to study their impact on solar adoption in rural areas. (4) Built a prototype tool based on the diffusion model to help study market segmentation in rural areas and made it available to National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). (5) Results and recommendations derived from the model were provided to NRECA to be shared with participating cooperatives. (6) Results were published in peer reviewed journals, conference proceedings and book chapters, and ideas disseminated through presentations and newsletters. There were several important methodological contributions made under this project which are detailed in the published papers, including: (1) Built a decision-adjusted model for predicting adoptors with imbalanced training data; (2) designed seeding strategies to maximize adoption given a fixed budget; (3) built a methodology to compare different agent based models; (4) created models to identify important factors that influence decision to adopt solar panels; and (5) built a methodology for building household profiles of solar generation to study the duck curve phenomenon. The team included members from the University of Virginia (lead), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Arizona State University, Virginia Tech and Sandia National Laboratory. Note that no individual entity or stakeholder has incentive to promote solar in rural regions. Most of the research and work focuses around urban regions where the potential for growth in solar adoption is higher due to higher population density. This puts rural areas at a disadvantage. By improving the diffusion of solar adoption in rural parts of the country, we can not only provide clean energy to rural areas but also promote job growth and improves energy independence.
The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies
This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.
Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols
Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.
Results of APL rain gauge network measurements in mid-Atlantic coast region and comparisons of distributions with CCIR models
In this effort are described cumulative rain rate distributions for a network of nine tipping bucket rain gauge systems located in the mid-Atlantic coast region in the vicinity of the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain gauges are situated within a gridded region of dimensions of 47 km east-west by 70 km north-south. Distributions are presented for the individual site measurements and the network average for the year period June 1, 1986 through May 31, 1987. A previous six year average distribution derived from measurements at one of the site locations is also presented. Comparisons are given of the network average, the CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) climatic zone, and the CCIR functional model distributions, the latter of which approximates a log normal at the lower rain rate and a gamma function at the higher rates.
Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Solar Wind: From the Coronal Base to the Outer Heliosphere
We have developed a global fully three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic solar wind model for the region that extends from the coronal base to 100 AU. The simulation domain consists of tree spherical shell subdomains with computational boundaries between them placed at 20 solar radii and 0.3 AU. The location of the first boundary ensures that the flow at the boundary is both supersonic and super-Alfvenic. A steady-state solution in the innermost (coronal) region is obtained by the time-relaxation method. The solution uses a tilted dipole model or solar magnetograms as the boundary condition at the coronal base and includes a flux of Alfven waves in the WKB approximation which provide additional acceleration for the coronal outflow in the open field regions. The intermediate region solution is constructed by the integration of steady-state equations along radius using a marching scheme. The outer region solution (0.3-100 AU) is obtained again by the time relaxation and takes into account turbulence transport and heating as well as heating, flow deceleration, and other effects due to the interstellar pickup protons treated as a separate fluid. We use the model to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind from the coronal base to the heliospheric boundary and compare the results with Ulysses and Voyager observations.
Power System Operational Impacts of Electric Vehicle Dynamic Wireless Charging
The electrification of the transportation sector poses an opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. Electric vehicle (EV) charging through dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), known as roadway electrification, could shift EV demand profiles to better coincide with renewable electricity generation. However, this would be a very large new load and few studies evaluate the regional impacts of DWPT charging in a power transmission system. This paper defines methods that address dataset generation for passenger vehicle trips and models to evaluate regional impacts for this emerging technology. Household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data form localized EV demand profiles through discrete-event simulation. This data serves as exogenous inputs for a Production Cost Model (PCM) of a synthetic transmission system based on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas's (ERCOT) network. EV charging methods are compared for both a 2018 baseline generation mixture and a high-renewable generation case incorporating 20 GW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The PCM employs unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) models to compare financial, environmental, and grid reliability impacts from EV charging across passenger EV adoption levels. In-transit charging could reduce grid operational costs by as much as 1.49%, with up to $13.7B saved in annual vehicle operational costs for consumers compared to gas-powered vehicles. Health impacts analysis from power plant and vehicle tailpipe emissions from this study show net health benefits increase by 40% for in-transit charging coupled with high renewable generation. Renewable resources provide an avenue for cost-effective in-transit charging with reduced emissions. The combination of dataset generation and open-source power system modeling establish a foundation for the holistic evaluation of regional DWPT impacts.
Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region
The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.
Fracturing in Wet Granular Media Illuminated by Photoporomechanics
Here, we study fluid-induced deformation and fracture of granular media and apply photoporomechanics to uncover the underpinning grain-scale mechanics. We fabricate spherical photoelastic particles of 2-mm diameter to form a monolayer granular pack in a circular Hele-Shaw cell that is initially filled with a viscous fluid. The key distinct feature of our system is that, with spherical particles, the granular pack has a connected pore space, thus allowing for pore-pressure diffusion and the study of effective stress in coupled poromechanical processes. We inject air into the fluid-filled photoelastic granular pack, varying the initial packing density and confining weight. With our recently developed experimental technique, photoporomechanics, we find two different modes of fluid invasion: fracturing in fluid-filled elastic media (with strong photoelastic response) and viscous fingering in frictional fluids (with weak or negligible photoelastic response). We directly visualize the evolving effective stress field and discover an effective stress shadow behind the propagating fracture tips, where the granular pack exhibits undrained behavior. We conceptualize the behavior of the system by means of a mechanistic model for a wedge of the granular pack bounded by two growing fractures. The model captures the pore-pressure build-up inside the stress shadow region and the grain compaction in the annular region outside. Our model reveals that a jamming transition determines the distinct rheological behavior of the wet granular pack, from a friction-dominated to an elasticity-dominated response.
Dynamic sea surface topography, gravity and improved orbit accuracies from the direct evaluation of SEASAT altimeter data
A method for the simultaneous solution of dynamic ocean topography, gravity and orbits using satellite altimeter data is described. A GEM-T1 based gravitational model called PGS-3337 that incorporates Seasat altimetry, surface gravimetry and satellite tracking data has been determined complete to degree and order 50. The altimeter data is utilized as a dynamic observation of the satellite's height above the sea surface with a degree 10 model of dynamic topography being recovered simultaneously with the orbit parameters, gravity and tidal terms in this model. PGS-3337 has a geoid uncertainty of 60 cm root-mean-square (RMS) globally, with the uncertainty over the altimeter tracked ocean being in the 25 cm range. Doppler determined orbits for Seasat, show large improvements, with the sub-30 cm radial accuracies being achieved. When altimeter data is used in orbit determination, radial orbital accuracies of 20 cm are achieved. The RMS of fit to the altimeter data directly gives 30 cm fits for Seasat when using PGS-3337 and its geoid and dynamic topography model. This performance level is two to three times better than that achieved with earlier Goddard earth models (GEM) using the dynamic topography from long-term oceanographic averages. The recovered dynamic topography reveals the global long wavelength circulation of the oceans with a resolution of 1500 km. The power in the dynamic topography recovery is now found to be closer to that of oceanographic studies than for previous satellite solutions. This is attributed primarily to the improved modeling of the geoid which has occurred. Study of the altimeter residuals reveals regions where tidal models are poor and sea state effects are major limitations.
Comparison of cloud fields from atmospheric general circulation model, in situ and satellite measurements
This paper focuses on the comparison of cloud amounts derived from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), Satellite-observed clouds, and Ground-based cloud observations. Unlike Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)-type comparisons it does not mix potential errors in the cloud amount with those in the radiation code embedded in the model. Long term cloud climatologies were used to compare global cloud amounts and regional seasonal cycles. The AGCM successfully reproduced the signatures of the warm pool and North Pacific seasonal cycle cloudiness but failed in the low stratus region off the coast of South America, a known problem for AGCMs. The data sets also reproduced the anomaly signature associated with El Nino in the warm pool region, but the model amounts were lower. Global results had a similar success rate, with the model generally producing lower total cloud compared to the satellite and in situ measurements. To compare cloud vertical distributions the cloud height may need to be validated using the corresponding radiation fields. Unfortunately there were also some large discrepancies between the two observed cloud data sets. While tremendously improved over the last decade the character of the observed cloud data sets, must be substantially enhanced before they will be useful in validating AGCMs by any but the crudest levels of comparison.
Geothermal Representation in Power System Models
Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.
C IV: Line profile correlations in NGC 4151
Relative flux changes of the narrow emission lines that form the double-peaked structure of the C 4 line in NGC 4151 suggest two distinct regions of line formation. Correlations independent of model assumptions show the response to variations of the red and blue peak intensities to the total C 4 flux are significantly different. The dependence of the red peak intensity relative to the total C 4 flux, defined as the flux in a specified wavelength range lambda lambda 1520-1580, suggests this component is formed in an extended photoionized region. The blue component appears more directly dependent on variations of the total C 4 flux, which may indicate a close association with nuclear outflow. Possible implications for broad line region models are discussed.
Building a 2.5D Digital Elevation Model from 2D Imagery
When projecting imagery into a georeferenced coordinate frame, one needs to have some model of the geographical region that is being projected to. This model can sometimes be a simple geometrical curve, such as an ellipse or even a plane. However, to obtain accurate projections, one needs to have a more sophisticated model that encodes the undulations in the terrain including things like mountains, valleys, and even manmade structures. The product that is often used for this purpose is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The technology presented here generates a high-quality DEM from a collection of 2D images taken from multiple viewpoints, plus pose data for each of the images and a camera model for the sensor. The technology assumes that the images are all of the same region of the environment. The pose data for each image is used as an initial estimate of the geometric relationship between the images, but the pose data is often noisy and not of sufficient quality to build a high-quality DEM. Therefore, the source imagery is passed through a feature-tracking algorithm and multi-plane-homography algorithm, which refine the geometric transforms between images. The images and their refined poses are then passed to a stereo algorithm, which generates dense 3D data for each image in the sequence. The 3D data from each image is then placed into a consistent coordinate frame and passed to a routine that divides the coordinate frame into a number of cells. The 3D points that fall into each cell are collected, and basic statistics are applied to determine the elevation of that cell. The result of this step is a DEM that is in an arbitrary coordinate frame. This DEM is then filtered and smoothed in order to remove small artifacts. The final step in the algorithm is to take the initial DEM and rotate and translate it to be in the world coordinate frame [such as UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator), MGRS (Military Grid Reference System), or geodetic] such that it can be saved in a standard DEM format and used for projection.
A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Coupling Between Neural Components: Evaluation of the Multiple Component, Event-Related Potential (mcERP) Algorithm
Accurate measurement of single-trial responses is key to a definitive use of complex electromagnetic and hemodynamic measurements in the investigation of brain dynamics. We developed the multiple component, Event-Related Potential (mcERP) approach to single-trial response estimation. To improve our resolution of dynamic interactions between neuronal ensembles located in different layers within a cortical region and/or in different cortical regions. The mcERP model assets that multiple components defined as stereotypic waveforms comprise the stimulus-evoked response and that these components may vary in amplitude and latency from trial to trial. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) solutions for the model are obtained by iterating a set of equations derived from the posterior probability. Our first goal was to use the ANTWERP algorithm to analyze interactions (specifically latency and amplitude correlation) between responses in different layers within a cortical region. Thus, we evaluated the model by applying the algorithm to synthetic data containing two correlated local components and one independent far-field component. Three cases were considered: the local components were correlated by an interaction in their single-trial amplitudes, by an interaction in their single-trial latencies, or by an interaction in both amplitude and latency. We then analyzed the accuracy with which the algorithm estimated the component waveshapes and the single-trial parameters as a function of the linearity of each of these relationships. Extensions of these analyses to real data are discussed as well as ongoing work to incorporate more detailed prior information.
Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016
In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.