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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Global Seasonality of Norovirus

Background: Noroviruses are the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis across all ages worldwide. These pathogens are generally understood to exhibit a wintertime seasonality, though a systematic assessment of seasonal patterns has not been conducted in the era of modern diagnostics. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the Pubmed Medline database for articles published between 1997 and 2011 to identify and extract data from articles reporting on monthly counts of norovirus. We conducted a descriptive analysis to document seasonal patterns of norovirus disease, and we also constructed multivariate linear models to identify factors associated with the strength of norovirus seasonality. Results: The searched identified 293 unique articles, yielding 38 case and 29 outbreak data series. Within these data series, 52.7% of cases and 41.2% of outbreaks occurred in winter months, and 78.9% of cases and 71.0% of outbreaks occurred in cool months. Both case and outbreak studies showed an earlier peak in season-year 2002-03, but not in season-year 2006- 07, years when new genogroup II type 4 variants emerged. For outbreaks, norovirus season strength was positively associated with average rainfall in the wettest month, and inversely associated with crude birth rate in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. For cases, none of the covariates examined was associated with season strength. When case and outbreaks were combined, average rainfall in the wettest month was positively associated with season strength. Conclusions: Norovirus is a wintertime phenomenon, at least in the temperate northern hemisphere where most data are available. Our results point to possible associations of season strength with rain in the wettest month and crude birth rate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial community response to a decade of simulated global changes depends on the plant community

Global changes such as increased drought and atmospheric nitrogen deposition perturb both the microbial and plant communities that mediate terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, few studies consider how microbial responses to global changes may be influenced by interactions with plant communities. To begin to address the role of microbial–plant interactions, we tested the hypothesis that the response of microbial communities to global change depends on the plant community. We characterized bacterial and fungal communities from 395 plant litter samples taken from the Loma Ridge Global Change Experiment, a decade-long global change experiment in Southern California that manipulates rainfall and nitrogen levels across two adjacent ecosystems, a grassland and a coastal sage scrubland. The differences in bacterial and fungal composition between ecosystems paralleled distinctions in plant community composition. In addition to the direct main effects, the global change treatments altered microbial composition in an ecosystem-dependent manner, in support of our hypothesis. The interaction between the drought treatment and ecosystem explained nearly 5% of the variation in bacterial community composition, similar to the variation explained by the ecosystem-independent effects of drought. Unexpectedly, we found that the main effect of drought was approximately four times as strong on bacterial composition as that of nitrogen addition, which did not alter fungal or plant composition. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of considering plant–microbe interactions when considering the transferability of the results of global change experiments across ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Weather Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements.Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Weather Data at Argonne National Laboratory Prairie Site

Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. These measurements are collected at the Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS), a prairie field site at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois. Data is available in the netCDF data format, we encourage data users review documentation through Project Pythia to understand how to work with netCDF data https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html. The data is aggregated into daily frequency to make it easier to process multiple days, and compress the higher-resolution fields. Each file contains one day's worth of data (24 hours, starting at 0000 UTC). File naming convention includes the project (CROCUS), location (atmos), data level (raw, a1), date (year, month, day), and hour (0000).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Weather Data at University of Illinois - Chicago Tower

Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. These measurements are collected at the University of Illinois in Chicago, Illinois, on the meteorological tower near the greenhouse on campus. Data is available in the netCDF data format, we encourage data users review documentation through Project Pythia to understand how to work with netCDF data https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html. File naming convention includes the project (CROCUS), location (UIC), data level (raw, a1), date (year, month, day), and hour (0000).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak). Site Description - The Kennedy Space Center Scrub Oak site is located within the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on the east coast of central Florida. Situated in a 10 ha scrub oak ecosystem, the surrounding stand was completely burned by a prescribed fire in 1996. The purpose of the burn was to control understory fuel load, which has been a common practice since 1969. Within a few weeks of the 1996 burn, the stand began to naturally regenerate from roots and rhizomes. Most scrub oak stands in the region undergo a 7 to 10 year disturbance cycle, mostly related to fire or hurricane activity. A severe drought gripped most of Florida beginning in 1998 until the later half of 2001 resulting in four years of relatively low amount of annual rainfall. Exceptionally high annual rainfall amount in 2004 was the result of a pair of hurricanes that hit the area in August and September of 2004. Prevaling wind directions for the site are as follows: W to NW in the winter, afternoon E sea breeze in the summer.

Drake, Bert↗

AmeriFlux US-CMW Charleston Mesquite Woodland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CMW Charleston Mesquite Woodland. Site Description - Site is a riparian mesquite woodland located along an old alluvial terrace along the banks of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Site climate is semiarid with monsoonal (Jul-Sep) rainfall. The mesquite trees access groundwater from an alluvial aquifer recharged elsewhere. Site water balance is not closed and ET greatly exceeds precipitation. The understory grasses and forbs are rainfall dependent. This groundwater-dependent ecosystem is far more ebulliant and productive than the upland vegetation around it (shrublands and grasslands).

Scott, Russell↗

AmeriFlux US-LS1 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Sacaton Grassland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LS1 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Sacaton Grassland. Site Description - This is a riparian grassland located along an old alluvial terrace along the banks of the entrenched San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Site climate is semiarid with monsoonal (Jul-Sep) rainfall. The grasses access groundwater (depth of 2-4 m)from an alluvial aquifer recharged elsewhere. Site water balance is not closed and ET greatly exceeds precipitation. The perennial bunchgrasses use both rainfall, groundwater and occasional flood water. This groundwater-using ecosystem is far more ebulliant and productive than the upland vegetation around it (shrublands and grasslands) outside of the San Pedro River corridor.

Scott, Russell↗

AmeriFlux US-LS2 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Savanna

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LS2 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Savanna. Site Description - A riparian savanna located on an old alluvial terrace about 0.5 km from the banks of the entrenched San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona USA. Site climate is semiarid with monsoonal (Jul-Sep) rainfall. The trees access groundwater (depth of ~7 m)from an alluvial aquifer recharged elsewhere. Therefore, site water balance is not closed and ET greatly exceeds precipitation. The perennial bunchgrasses use primarily rainfall. This groundwater-using ecosystem is far more ebulliant and productive than the upland vegetation around it (shrublands and grasslands) outside of the San Pedro River corridor.

Scott, Russell↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-LS2 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Savanna

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LS2 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Savanna. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LS2 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Savanna produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - A riparian savanna located on an old alluvial terrace about 0.5 km from the banks of the entrenched San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona USA. Site climate is semiarid with monsoonal (Jul-Sep) rainfall. The trees access groundwater (depth of ~7 m)from an alluvial aquifer recharged elsewhere. Therefore, site water balance is not closed and ET greatly exceeds precipitation. The perennial bunchgrasses use primarily rainfall. This groundwater-using ecosystem is far more ebulliant and productive than the upland vegetation around it (shrublands and grasslands) outside of the San Pedro River corridor.

Scott, Russell↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Kennedy Space Center Scrub Oak site is located within the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on the east coast of central Florida. Situated in a 10 ha scrub oak ecosystem, the surrounding stand was completely burned by a prescribed fire in 1996. The purpose of the burn was to control understory fuel load, which has been a common practice since 1969. Within a few weeks of the 1996 burn, the stand began to naturally regenerate from roots and rhizomes. Most scrub oak stands in the region undergo a 7 to 10 year disturbance cycle, mostly related to fire or hurricane activity. A severe drought gripped most of Florida beginning in 1998 until the later half of 2001 resulting in four years of relatively low amount of annual rainfall. Exceptionally high annual rainfall amount in 2004 was the result of a pair of hurricanes that hit the area in August and September of 2004. Prevaling wind directions for the site are as follows: W to NW in the winter, afternoon E sea breeze in the summer.

Drake, Bert↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-LS1 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Sacaton Grassland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LS1 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Sacaton Grassland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LS1 San Pedro River Lewis Springs Sacaton Grassland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This is a riparian grassland located along an old alluvial terrace along the banks of the entrenched San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Site climate is semiarid with monsoonal (Jul-Sep) rainfall. The grasses access groundwater (depth of 2-4 m)from an alluvial aquifer recharged elsewhere. Site water balance is not closed and ET greatly exceeds precipitation. The perennial bunchgrasses use both rainfall, groundwater and occasional flood water. This groundwater-using ecosystem is far more ebulliant and productive than the upland vegetation around it (shrublands and grasslands) outside of the San Pedro River corridor.

Scott, Russell [USDA-ARS]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-CMW Charleston Mesquite Woodland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CMW Charleston Mesquite Woodland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CMW Charleston Mesquite Woodland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Site is a riparian mesquite woodland located along an old alluvial terrace along the banks of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Site climate is semiarid with monsoonal (Jul-Sep) rainfall. The mesquite trees access groundwater from an alluvial aquifer recharged elsewhere. Site water balance is not closed and ET greatly exceeds precipitation. The understory grasses and forbs are rainfall dependent. This groundwater-dependent ecosystem is far more ebulliant and productive than the upland vegetation around it (shrublands and grasslands).

Scott, Russell [USDA-ARS]↗

The Seismic Signature of a High-Energy Density Physics Laboratory and Its Potential for Measuring Time-Dependent Velocity Structure

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories is a pulsed power facility for high-energy density physics experiments that can shock materials to extreme temperatures and pressures through a focused energy release of up to ~ 25 MJ in < 100 nanoseconds. It has been in operation for more than two decades and conducts up to ~ 100 experiments, or “shots,” per year. Based on a set of 74 known shot times from 2018, we determined that Z Machine shots produce detectable ~ 3–17 Hz ground motion 12 km away at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, New Mexico (ANMO), borehole seismograph, with peak signal at ~ 7 Hz. The known shot waveforms were used to create a three-component template, leading to the detection of 2339 Z Machine shots since 1998 through single-station cross-correlation. Local seismic magnitude estimates range from local magnitude (M L ) —2 to —1.3 and indicate that only a small fraction of the shot energy is transmitted by seismic phases observable at 12 km distance. The most recent major facility renovation, which was intended to decrease mechanical dissipation, is associated with an abrupt decrease in observed seismic amplitudes at ANMO despite stable maximum shot energy. The highly repetitive impulsive sources are well suited to coda-wave interferometry to investigate time-dependent velocity structures. Relative velocity variations (dv/v) show an annual cycle with amplitude of ~ 0.2%. Local minima are observed in the late spring, and dv/v increases through the summer monsoon rainfall, possibly reflecting patchy saturation as rainfall infiltrates near the eastern edge of the Albuquerque basin. Importantly, the cumulative results demonstrate that forensic seismology can provide insight into long-term operation of facilities such as pulsed-power laboratories, and that their recurring signals may be valuable for studies of time-dependent structure

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models (Final Technical Report)

This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical western Pacific. On the training of post-doctoral scientists: the PI spent considerable amount of time and efforts in introducing the post-docs into climate modeling and designing the numerical experiments. With training provided and knowledge gained, post-docs worked in the project obtained long term positions elsewhere. The PI also enjoyed the experience in managing the works and educating work ethics to the younger generation. Based on the research achievements and publications, the PI gave invited talks in major international monsoon conferences/workshops, and gave lectures in various research organizations in the last six years. Finally, during the project period, the PI attended all the DOE organized PIs meeting and presented the major results. Some of the major implications of the project include: (i) Sustained observational efforts are necessary to monitor the three-dimensional moisture distribution over the Asian monsoon region that would aid in better understanding, modeling and predicting severe monsoons well in advance and (ii) process-based diagnostics lead pathways for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lotic Water Hydrodynamic Model

Water-related natural disasters, for example, floods and droughts, are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards, both socially and economically. Many of these floods are a result of excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, and subsequently overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments. Floods can cause physical damage to critical infrastructure and present health risks through the spread of waterborne diseases. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed Lotic, a state-of-the-art surface water hydrodynamic model, to simulate propagation of flood waves originating from a variety of events. Lotic is a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that has been used primarily for simulations in which overland water flows are characterized by movement in two dimensions, such as flood waves expected from rainfall-runoff events, storm surge, and tsunamis. In 2013, LANL developers enhanced Lotic through several development efforts. These developments included enhancements to the 2D simulation engine, including numerical formulation, computational efficiency developments, and visualization. Stakeholders can use simulation results to estimate infrastructure damage and cascading consequences within other sets of infrastructure, as well as to inform the development of flood mitigation strategies.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗