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Probabilistic Failure Analysis for Wound Composite Ceramic Cladding Assembly

Advanced ceramic matrix composites based on silicon carbide (SiC) are being considered as candidate material systems for nuclear fuel cladding in light water reactors. The SiC composite structure is considered due to its assumed exceptional performance under accident scenarios, where its excellent high-temperature strength and slow reaction kinetics with steam and associated mitigated hydrogen production are desirable. The specific structures of interest consist of a monolithic SiC cylinder surrounded by interphase-coated SiC woven fibers in a tubular form and infiltrated with SiC. Additional SiC coatings on the outermost surface of the assembly are also being considered to prevent hydrothermal corrosion of the fibrous structure. The inner monolithic cylinder is expected to provide a hermetic seal to contain fission products under normal conditions. While this approach offers the promise of higher burn-up rates and safer behavior in the case of LOCA events, the reliability of such structures must be demonstrated in advance. Therefore, a probability failure analysis study was performed of such monolithic-composite hybrid structures to determine the feasibility of these design concepts. This analysis will be used to predict the future performance of candidate systems in an effort to determine the feasibility of these design concepts and to make future recommendations regarding materials selection.

Hemrick, James Gordon↗

Analyzing Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Data through Topology-Based Clustering

We investigate the use of a topology-based clustering technique on the data generated by dynamic event tree methodologies. The clustering technique we utilizes focuses on a domain-partitioning algorithm based on topological structures known as the Morse-Smale complex, which partitions the data points into clusters based on their uniform gradient flow behavior. We perform both end state analysis and transient analysis to classify the set of nuclear scenarios. We demonstrate our methodology on a dataset generated for a sodium-cooled fast reactor during an aircraft crash scenario. The simulation tracks the temperature of the reactor as well as the time for a recovery team to fix the passive cooling system. Combined with clustering results obtained previously through mean shift methodology, we present the user with complementary views of the data that help illuminate key features that may be otherwise hidden using a single methodology. By clustering the data, the number of relevant test cases to be selected for further analysis can be drastically reduced by selecting a representative from each cluster. Identifying the similarities of simulations within a cluster can also aid in the drawing of important conclusions with respect to safety analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗