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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Variability in Patient Exposure During Premarket Clinical Development on Postmarket Safety Outcomes

We characterized the size of the premarket safety population for 278 small-molecule new molecular entities (NMEs) and 61 new therapeutic biologics (NTBs) approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between October 1, 2002, and December 31, 2014, evaluating the relationship of premarket safety population size to regulatory characteristics and postmarket safety outcomes. The median size of the safety population was 1,044, and was lower for NTBs than NMEs (median: 920 vs. 1,138, P = 0.04), orphan products than nonorphan products (393 vs. 1,606, P < 0.001), and for products with fast-track designation (617 vs. 1,455, P < 0.001), priority review (630 vs. 1,735, P < 0.001), and accelerated approval (475 vs. 1,164, P < 0.001), than products without that designation. The median number of postmarket safety label updates and issues added to the label were higher with larger premarket exposure among nonorphan products, but not among orphan products. Products with accelerated approval using a surrogate end point had a higher median number of safety issues added to the label than those with full approval, but this did not vary with the size of the safety population; fast-track and priority review were not associated with the number of safety issues added to the label. Here, a smaller safety population size was associated with a longer time to first safety outcome for nonorphan products but not orphan products. For orphan and nonorphan products combined, smaller premarket safety population size is not associated with the number or timing of postmarket safety outcomes, regardless of expedited program participation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of quantitative trait loci for sorghum leaf blight resistance

Sorghum leaf blight and northern corn leaf blight, both caused by Exserohilum turcicum {(Pass.) K. J. Leonard and Suggs [syn. Setosphaeria turcica (Luttr.) K. J. Leonard and Suggs.]}, are major diseases of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and maize (Zea mays L.), respectively. Examining the genetic architecture of resistance in sorghum will lead to a better understanding of the relationship between resistance in sorghum and maize, which can ultimately enhance management options in both crops. In 2018 and 2019, we evaluated two sorghum recombinant inbred line (RIL) populations for resistance to E. turcicum. The BTx623 × IS3620C and BTx623 × SC155 populations consisted of 235 and 81 RILs, respectively. Resistance in both populations was moderately to highly heritable. We identified a total of six quantitative trait loci (QTL) across the two populations. Three QTL with small- to moderate-effect sizes were identified in the BTx623 × IS3620C population. Three QTL, including a large-effect QTL on chromosome three that explained 24% of the variation, were identified in the BTx623 × SC155 population. We compared the identified QTL with the position of northern corn leaf blight candidate genes and found eight candidate resistance gene orthologs that colocalize with the sorghum leaf blight QTL. There were also several nucleotide-binding leucine-rich repeat encoding genes within the candidate intervals. Understanding host resistance in multiple species furthers our understanding of the Exserohilum turcicum patho-system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Achieving Productivity to Recover and Restore Columbia River Stream-Type Chinook Salmon Relies on Increasing Smolt-To-Adult Survival

Abstract We analyzed and compared productivity and survival rates of populations of stream-type Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the upper and middle ranges of their distribution in the Columbia River basin. These two groups of populations undergo vastly different exposures during migration through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Declines of the Snake River populations, listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, have been associated with the development and operation of the FCRPS. In contrast, John Day River stream-type Chinook Salmon populations, which were less affected by the FCRPS, have declined to a lesser extent and are not listed. Smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs) accounted for a majority of the variation in life cycle survival rates of Snake River Chinook Salmon. Productivity declined to 13% and 44% of historical productivity levels for Snake River and John Day River populations, respectively. A synthesis of previous studies contrasting anthropogenic impacts between the two regions supports the conclusion that FCRPS impacts explain the large difference in population productivity. Our results suggest that SARs of 4% would result in an expected productivity of up to 70% of historical levels (a SAR level consistent with regional restoration objectives). The SARs have been shown to be highly influenced by conditions within the FCRPS (e.g., water velocity and passage through dam powerhouses). Marine conditions also influence SARs; however, meaningful management actions are only available to affect conditions within the FCRPS. Given the importance of SARs to overall life cycle productivity, recovery and restoration strategies need to prioritize actions that have potential to substantially increase SARs by addressing the significant impacts of main-stem dams. This study highlights the importance of considering river management options in the face of increasingly variable and warming ocean conditions.

Petrosky, Charles E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficacy of one-time rotenone application for Westslope Cutthroat Trout restoration in Boulder Creek, Montana

Abstract Objective Although piscicides are an important tool for native fish management, our understanding of native fish population dynamics posttreatment (i.e., in putatively vacant habitat) is limited. Methods Here, we describe long-term trends in size and abundance of Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii in Lower Boulder Lake and Boulder Creek (Montana). Result No significant differences were found before and after treatment with rotenone in mean length and population density in Boulder Creek. Posttreatment genetic samples from Boulder Lake and upper Boulder Creek consisted entirely of the Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi used to refound the population. Middle and lower Boulder Creek genetic samples contained 99.4% and 98.4% Westslope Cutthroat Trout, indicating that some nonnative (Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri hybrid) fish survived the treatment. Population demographics showed robust recovery posttreatment; however, genetic results revealed the limitations of a one-time treatment—that is, an incomplete fish kill. Conclusion We demonstrate that Cutthroat Trout populations achieve recovery after rotenone treatment in the long term, but one-time rotenone treatments on large drainages often fail to totally eradicate populations. Therefore, managers should plan on multiple treatments and utilize environmental DNA to help achieve total removal of target species.

Lampton, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surveying Grassland Islands: the genetics and performance of Appalachian switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) collections

The interior Southeastern United States could contain novel germplasm for the bioenergy crop switchgrass due to its diverse habitats and geographic location between genetic subpopulations (Atlantic, Midwest, and Gulf). Collections from this region could accelerate breeding progress, contribute to conservation efforts, and improve understanding of isolated grasslands in the region. This study located 22 sites in the Midsouth region and obtained 1,521,210 single nucleotide polymorphism markers of 202 individuals through genotype-by-sequencing. Here, individuals were evaluated for flowering time, winter survival and tiller number. Comparison to a national diversity panel revealed that branches of two major subpopulations occur in the region with two levels of polyploidy: Atlantic tetraploids and Midwest octoploids. Two locations contained admixed octoploid individuals with Midwest and Gulf genetics. Field performance of the Midwest octoploids conformed with prior reported performance of the Midwest subpopulation, although three sites contained promising late flowering traits. The Atlantic tetraploids had moderate winter survival, short stature, and anomalously early flowering. Atlantic populations mostly occurred in marginal sites and their morphological and flowering time adaptations may be a resource conservation strategy. Demographic inference of historical effective population size variation in a subset of tetraploid locations indicated a widespread recent decline in effective population size. This pattern is consistent with isolation of these switchgrass communities from larger populations and is further supported by evidence of inbreeding within the populations (F I = 0.18). The populations documented in this study contain novel genetic diversity and adaptations to a range of marginal habitats. Therefore, this study provides a new source of germplasm for future breeding and conservation programs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proteome specialization of anaerobic fungi during ruminal degradation of recalcitrant plant fiber

The rumen harbors a complex microbial mixture of archaea, bacteria, protozoa, and fungi that efficiently breakdown plant biomass and its complex dietary carbohydrates into soluble sugars that can be fermented and subsequently converted into metabolites and nutrients utilized by the host animal. While rumen bacterial populations have been well documented, only a fraction of the rumen eukarya are taxonomically and functionally characterized, despite the recognition that they contribute to the cellulolytic phenotype of the rumen microbiota. To investigate how anaerobic fungi actively engage in digestion of recalcitrant fiber that is resistant to degradation, we resolved genome-centric metaproteome and metatranscriptome datasets generated from switchgrass samples incubated for 48 h in nylon bags within the rumen of cannulated dairy cows. Across a gene catalog covering anaerobic rumen bacteria, fungi and viruses, a significant portion of the detected proteins originated from fungal populations. Intriguingly, the carbohydrate-active enzyme (CAZyme) profile suggested a domain-specific functional specialization, with bacterial populations primarily engaged in the degradation of hemicelluloses, whereas fungi were inferred to target recalcitrant cellulose structures via the detection of a number of endo- and exo-acting enzymes belonging to the glycoside hydrolase (GH) family 5, 6, 8, and 48. Notably, members of the GH48 family were amongst the highest abundant CAZymes and detected representatives from this family also included dockerin domains that are associated with fungal cellulosomes. A eukaryote-selected metatranscriptome further reinforced the contribution of uncultured fungi in the ruminal degradation of recalcitrant fibers. These findings elucidate the intricate networks of in situ recalcitrant fiber deconstruction, and importantly, suggest that the anaerobic rumen fungi contribute a specific set of CAZymes that complement the enzyme repertoire provided by the specialized plant cell wall degrading rumen bacteria.

Hagen, Live↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accuracy of environmental tracers and consequences for determining the Type Ia supernova magnitude step

Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are standardizable candles that allow us to measure the recent expansion rate of the Universe. Due to uncertainties in progenitor physics, potential astrophysical dependencies may bias cosmological measurements if not properly accounted for. The dependency of the intrinsic luminosity of SNe Ia with their host-galaxy environment is often used to standardize SNe Ia luminosity and is commonly parameterized as a step function. This functional form implicitly assumes two-populations of SNe Ia. In the literature, multiple environmental indicators have been considered, finding different, sometimes incompatible, step function amplitudes. We compare these indicators in the context of a two-populations model, based on their ability to distinguish the two populations. We show that local Hα-based specific star formation rate (lsSFR) and global stellar mass are better tracers than, for instance, host galaxy morphology. We show that tracer accuracy can explain the discrepancy between the observed SNe Ia step amplitudes found in the literature. Using lsSFR or global mass to identify the two populations can explain all other observations, though lsSFR is favoured. As lsSFR is strongly connected to age, our results favour a prompt and delayed population model. In any case, there exists two populations that differ in standardized magnitude by at least 0.121 ± 0.010 mag.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncovering a membrane-distal conformation of KRAS available to recruit RAF to the plasma membrane

The small GTPase KRAS is localized at the plasma membrane where it functions as a molecular switch, coupling extracellular growth factor stimulation to intracellular signaling networks. In this process, KRAS recruits effectors, such as RAF kinase, to the plasma membrane where they are activated by a series of complex molecular steps. Defining the membrane-bound state of KRAS is fundamental to understanding the activation of RAF kinase and in evaluating novel therapeutic opportunities for the inhibition of oncogenic KRAS-mediated signaling. We combined multiple biophysical measurements and computational methodologies to generate a consensus model for authentically processed, membrane-anchored KRAS. In contrast to the two membrane-proximal conformations previously reported, we identify a third significantly populated state using a combination of neutron reflectivity, fast photochemical oxidation of proteins (FPOP), and NMR. In this highly populated state, which we refer to as “membrane-distal” and estimate to comprise ~90% of the ensemble, the G-domain does not directly contact the membrane but is tethered via its C-terminal hypervariable region and carboxymethylated farnesyl moiety, as shown by FPOP. Subsequent interaction of the RAF1 RAS binding domain with KRAS does not significantly change G-domain configurations on the membrane but affects their relative populations. Overall, our results are consistent with a directional fly-casting mechanism for KRAS, in which the membrane-distal state of the G-domain can effectively recruit RAF kinase from the cytoplasm for activation at the membrane.

KRAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotope analysis reveals dietary overlap among sympatric canids

Abstract When colonizing new regions, invading species might compete strongly with phylogenetically related species native to the regions they are colonizing, eventually leading to coexistence or displacement. In the southeast of the United States, recently established coyotes (Canis latrans) compete with red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), although it remains unclear if competition is leading to resource partitioning or displacement by species. Using nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes, we tested the hypothesis that coyotes compete with foxes for food resources, with canids partitioning those resources to mitigate competition. We compared diets of canids in the southeast to those in the Plains region of the United States, a region where all three species historically have coexisted. We analyzed 217 hair samples from both regions pre-1960, prior to coyote colonization of the southeast, and post-2000, after coyotes were ubiquitous there, to assess differences in diet among species for both regions (southeast versus Plains and time periods, pre- versus postcolonization by coyotes). Modeling revealed significant dietary overlap among historical and contemporary populations in the southeast. Historically, all species partitioned resources in the Plains. Contemporarily, red fox and coyotes co-occurring in the Plains overlapped in diet; however, gray fox diet did not overlap with those of red fox and coyotes. Absence of partitioning in diet among co-occurring canids in the southeast indicates that interspecific competition could be strong in the region. Competition among canid populations in the southeast could lead to further resource partitioning among species that promotes coexistence or competitive exclusion of smaller fox species where coyote populations are abundant.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining properties of asymmetric dark matter candidates from gravitational-wave observations

The accumulation of certain types of dark matter particles in neutron star cores due to accretion over long timescales can lead to the formation of a mini black hole. In this scenario, the neutron star is destabilized and implodes to form a black hole without significantly increasing its mass. When this process occurs in neutron stars in coalescing binaries, one or both stars might be converted to a black hole before they merge. Thus, in the mass range of ~1–2M ⊙ , the Universe might contain three distinct populations of compact binaries: one containing only neutron stars, the second population of only black holes, and a third, mixed population consisting of a neutron star and a black hole. However, it is unlikely to have a mixed population as the various timescales allow for both neutron stars to remain or collapse within a short timescale. In this paper, we explore the capability of future gravitational-wave detector networks, including upgrades of Advanced LIGO and Virgo, and new facilities such as the Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope (XG network), to discriminate between different populations by measuring the effective tidal deformability of the binary, which is zero for binary black holes but nonzero for binary neutron stars. Furthermore, we show that observing the relative abundances of the different populations can be used to infer the timescale for neutron stars to implode into black holes, and in turn, provide constraints on the particle nature of dark matter. Furthermore, the XG network will infer the implosion timescale to within an accuracy of 0.01 Gyr at 90% credible interval and determine the dark matter mass and interaction cross section to within a factor of 2 GeV and 10 cm –2 , respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relative reproductive phenology and synchrony affect neonate survival in a nonprecocial ungulate

Abstract Degree of reproductive synchronization in prey is hypothesized as a predator defense strategy reducing prey risk via predator satiation or predator avoidance. Species with precocial young, especially those exposed to specialist predators, should be highly synchronous to satiate predators (predator satiation hypothesis), while prey with nonprecocial (i.e. altricial) young, especially those exposed to generalist predators, should become relatively asynchronous to avoid predator detection (predator avoidance hypothesis). The white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in North America is an example of a nonprecocial ungulate that uses the hider strategy early in life; its primary predator (coyote; Canis latrans ) is a generalist, making white‐tailed deer a good model species to test the predator avoidance hypothesis. We used birth dates and known fates of white‐tailed deer neonates ( n = 1,032) across nine study sites varying in relative synchrony and predator assemblages to test the predator avoidance hypothesis. We predicted that relative birthing asynchrony of the population would increase relative survival at the population level; therefore, at the individual scale, neonate birth date nearer to mean birthing date in a respective population would not influence individual survival. Coyotes were responsible for the majority of predation events, and survival of those neonates increased the closer the individual was born to peak birthing season in each respective population. Also, at the population level, reproductive asynchronization negatively affected survival. Contrary to the predator avoidance hypothesis, our data indicate patterns in neonate survival for white‐tailed deer better support the predator satiation hypothesis at the individual and population level. Additionally, coyotes may present a selective force great enough to shift reproductive synchrony such that predator satiation may become a feasible defense strategy for neonates at local spatial scales. Our results indicate that synchronizing reproduction may still be the most effective strategy to reduce individual predation risk from generalist predators, particularly when the window of heightened resource availability to the prey is narrow. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Michel, Eric S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate‐driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well‐being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns‐per‐spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock‐recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well‐documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonparallel transcriptional divergence during parallel adaptation

Abstract How underlying mechanisms bias evolution toward predictable outcomes remains an area of active debate. In this study, we leveraged phenotypic plasticity and parallel adaptation across independent lineages of Trinidadian guppies ( Poecilia reticulata ) to assess the predictability of gene expression evolution during parallel adaptation. Trinidadian guppies have repeatedly and independently adapted to high‐ and low‐predation environments in the wild. We combined this natural experiment with a laboratory breeding design to attribute transcriptional variation to the genetic influences of population of origin and developmental plasticity in response to rearing with or without predators. We observed substantial gene expression plasticity, as well as the evolution of expression plasticity itself, across populations. Genes exhibiting expression plasticity within populations were more likely to also differ in expression between populations, with the direction of population differences more likely to be opposite those of plasticity. While we found more overlap than expected by chance in genes differentially expressed between high‐ and low‐predation populations from distinct evolutionary lineages, the majority of differentially expressed genes were not shared between lineages. Our data suggest alternative transcriptional configurations associated with shared phenotypes, highlighting a role for transcriptional flexibility in the parallel phenotypic evolution of a species known for rapid adaptation.

Fischer, Eva K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conscientious vaccination exemptions in kindergarten to eighth-grade children across Texas schools from 2012 to 2018: A regression analysis

Background: As conscientious vaccination exemption (CVE) percentages rise across the United States, so does the risk and occurrence of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles. In the state of Texas, the median CVE percentage across school systems more than doubled between 2012 and 2018. During this period, the proportion of schools surpassing a CVE percentage of 3% rose from 2% to 6% for public schools, 20% to 26% for private schools, and 17% to 22% for charter schools. The aim of this study was to investigate this phenomenon at a fine scale. Methods and findings: Here, we use beta regression models to study the socioeconomic and geographic drivers of CVE trends in Texas. Using annual counts of CVEs at the school system level from the 2012–2013 to the 2017–2018 school year, we identified county-level predictors of median CVE percentage among public, private, and charter schools, the proportion of schools below a high-risk threshold for vaccination coverage, and five-year trends in CVEs. Since the 2012–2013 school year, CVE percentages have increased in 41 out of 46 counties in the top 10 metropolitan areas of Texas. We find that 77.6% of the variation in CVE percentages across metropolitan counties is explained by median income, the proportion of the population that holds a bachelor's degree, the proportion of the population that self-reports as ethnically white, the proportion of the population that is English speaking, and the proportion of the population that is under the age of five years old. Across the 10 top metropolitan areas in Texas, counties vary considerably in the proportion of school systems reporting CVE percentages above 3%. Sixty-six percent of that variation is explained by the proportion of the population that holds a bachelor’s degree and the proportion of the population affiliated with a religious congregation. Three of the largest metropolitan areas—Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Houston—are potential vaccination exemption "hotspots," with over 13% of local school systems above this risk threshold. The major limitations of this study are inconsistent school-system-level CVE reporting during the study period and a lack of geographic and socioeconomic data for individual private schools. Conclusions: In this study, we have identified high-risk communities that are typically obscured in county-level risk assessments and found that public schools, like private schools, are exhibiting predictable increases in vaccination exemption percentages. As public health agencies confront the reemerging threat of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases, findings such as ours can guide targeted interventions and surveillance within schools, cities, counties, and sociodemographic subgroups.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗