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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Exploring Standing and Reflected Slow-mode Waves in Flaring Coronal Loops: A Parametric Study Using 2.5D MHD Modeling

Abstract Recent observations of reflected propagating and standing slow-mode waves in hot flaring coronal loops have spurred our investigation into their underlying excitation and damping mechanisms. To understand these processes, we conduct 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations using an arcade active region model that includes a hot and dense loop. Our simulations allow for in-depth parametric investigations complementing and expanding our previous 3D MHD modeling results. We excite these waves using a large-amplitude, flow pulse applied at one footpoint of the loop in two distinct models as motivated by observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). The first model (Model 1) incorporates classical compressive viscosity coefficient, while the second model (Model 2) adopts a 10-times enhanced viscosity coefficient. We obtain the following major results: (1) Our 2.5D MHD simulations reinforce previous conclusions derived from 1D and 3D MHD models that significantly enhanced viscosity is crucial for the rapid excitation of standing slow waves with damping times consistent with observations by Wang et al. (2015). (2)We uncover that nonlinearity in Model 1 delays the conversion of a reflected propagating wave into a standing wave. In contrast, Model 2 exhibits a much weak influence of nonlinearity on the excitation time of standing waves, thanks to the suppression of these effects by enhanced viscosity. (3) Our results reveal that the transverse temperature structure holds more influence on wave behavior than the density structure. In Model 1, increased loop temperature contrast significantly enhances wave trapping within the structure, mitigating the impact of temperature-dependent viscous damping. Conversely, in Model 2, the impact of temperature structure on wave behavior weakens in comparison to the effect of viscosity. (4) Model 1 displays evident nonlinear coupling to the fast and kink magnetoacoustic waves and pronounced wave leakage into the corona. Model 2 exhibits significantly weaker effects in this regard. Analyzing three observed wave events by SDO/AIA aligns with Model 2 predictions, providing further support for the substantial viscosity increase. Our 2.5D study unravels the complex interplay of wave-flow phenomena and nonlinear processes in coronal loops, extending our previous 1D modeling results to incorporate more realistic loop geometry. This provides insights into scenarios where 3D effects may be neglected, thereby enhancing our understanding of the intricate dynamics of the solar corona.

Tongjiang Wang↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal parameterizations for observational constraints on thawing dark energy

Time-varying dark energy is often modeled in observational analyses through generic parameterizations of its equation of state w(z), which typically use two free parameters {w 0 , w a } to span a broad range of behaviors as a function of redshift. However, this broad range of behaviors can only approximately capture the dynamics of any given microphysical theory of dark energy. A complementary approach is to use targeted parameterizations designed to model specific classes of dynamical dark energy with greater precision. Focusing on the class of thawing dark energy, we quantify and compare the precision with which nineteen generic and targeted parameterizations can capture the dynamics of physically motivated thawing quintessence theories. We find that a targeted parameterization derived from a Padé expansion of w is the most reliable of these, producing accurate reconstructions of w(z), the expansion history H(z), and cosmological parameters such as H 0 and Ω m for a broad range of microphysical theories.

dark energy experiments↗
NASA NTRS2015

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Ice sheet reconstruction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2002

Observations and Laboratory Data of Planetary Organics

Many efforts are underway to search for evidence of prebiotic materials in the outer solar system. Current and planned Mars missions obtain remote sensing observations that can be used to address the potential presence of prebiotic materials. Additional missions to, and continuing earth-based observations of, more distant solar system objects will also provide remote sensing observations that can be used to address the potential presence of prebiotic materials. I will present an overview of on-going observations, associated laboratory investigations of candidate materials, and theoretical modeling of observational data. In the past the room temperature reflectance spectra of many residues created from HC-bearing gases and solids have been reported. The results of an investigation of what effect temperatures more representative of outer solar system surfaces (50-140K) have on the reflectance spectra of these residues, and the associated interpretations, will be presented. The relatively organic-rich Tagish Lake Meteorite has been suggested as a spectral analog for Dtype asteroids. Using a new approach that relies upon iterative use of Hapke theory and Kraniers-Kronig analysis the optical constants of TLM were estimated. The approach and results of the analysis will be presented. Use of optical constants in scattering theories, such as the Hapke theory, provide the ability to determine quantitative estimates of the relative abundances and grain sizes of candidate surface components. This approach has been applied to interpret the reflectance spectra of several outer solar system surfaces. A summary will be provided describing the results of such modeling efforts.

Roush, Ted L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-count rate effects in event processing for XRISM/ Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter: I. Ground test

The spectroscopic performance of an X-ray microcalorimeter is compromised at high count rates. We utilize the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter onboard the XRISM satellite to examine the effects observed during high-count rate measurements and propose modeling approaches to mitigate them. We specifically address the following instrumental effects that impact performance: CPU limit, pile-up, and untriggered electrical cross-talk. Experimental data at high count rates were acquired during ground testing using the flight model instrument and a calibration X-ray source. In the experiment, data processing not limited by the performance of the onboard CPU was run in parallel, which cannot be done in orbit. This makes it possible to access the data degradation caused by limited CPU performance. We use these data to develop models that allow for a more accurate estimation of the aforementioned effects. To illustrate the application of these models in observation planning, we present a simulated observation of GX 13+1. Understanding and addressing these issues is crucial to enhancing the reliability and precision of X-ray spectroscopy in situations characterized by elevated count rates.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Zheng et al. (2025), "AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry"

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystems and soil function. Salinity affects soil carbon cycling by directly impacting microbial activity and indirectly altering soil physicochemical properties, but current models inadequately represent these complexities. This dataset contains the observational and modeling data from Zheng et al. (2025), which described a process-based modeling framework that couples soil solution chemistry with microbial carbon cycling reactions to study the impacts of soil salinization. This conceptual model is implemented numerically into the open-source geochemical program PHREEQC 3.0 (Parkhurst and Appelo, 2013). This dataset consists of: - Figure2_AquaMEND_salinity_buffer: Contains model simulation outputs to assess the impact of three different cation exchange and surface complexation processes on salinity buffering (Fig. 2 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure3_Salinity_function: Contains salinity function fitting for literature data (Fig. 3 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure4_AquaMEND_microbial_mechanisms: Contains model simulation outputs for testing various microbial process-based hypotheses related to soil salinization, including microbial mortality, carbon use efficiency (CUE), extracellular enzyme activity, and other microbial mechanisms (Fig. 4 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure5_AquaMEND_Redox: Contains on model simulation outputs to evaluate shifts among key redox processes, such as aerobic respiration, sulfate reduction, and methanogenesis (Fig.5 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure6_AquaMEND_sorption: Contains on model simulation outputs for investigating the effects of salinity on dissolved organic matter (DOM) sorption and desorption processes (Fig. 6 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure7_AquaMEND_process_couple: Contains on model simulation outputs for exploring coupled biotic-abiotic processes and their interactions (Fig. 7 from Zheng et al. 2025). - data: Includes datasets used to develop salinity response functions and evaluate salinity buffering capacity. Datasets for MEND model calibration. - database: Contains the `.dat` file required by PHREEQC for model execution. - README.md: A Markdown plain text file describing the computational tools and directories. Files are a mixture of plain text CSV (comma-separated value) and plain text *.dat files written by the model; no special software is required to read them.

EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > SOILS > SOIL SALINIT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Analysis of Cosmological Simulations via Angular Power Spectra

Cosmology is the study of the universe's origin, large-scale structure, and dynamics. One such area of study is understanding dark energy and dark matter. Dark matter has not been observed to interact with luminous matter other than through gravitational attractions, forming large scale structures observed throughout the universe. In this area, the primary model is the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model. This standard model consists of cosmological dark energy (Λ), cold dark matter (CDM), and normal luminous matter. We use angular power spectra (APS) to compare simulated ΛCDM models with observed large-scale galaxy distributions from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) [1]. After ensuring that the simulations can produce APS that match observational results, we vary cosmological parameters to constrain the allowed ranges of parameter values that are consistent with the observed data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fundamental physics studies in time domain and multi-messenger astronomy

The era of ime domain and multi-messenger astronomy is not only leading to the development of a much broader set of detectors and instruments for astrophysical observations, but is also providing the means for astronomy to tie directly to cutting-edge studies in physics. In this manner, fundamental physics (theory and experiment) coupled with a strong theoretical understanding of astrophysical phenomena (guided by high-performance computing simulations) can tie directly to the amazing new observations in astronomy. This paper discusses how physics, astrophysical models, and observations can not only help astronomy probe fundamental physics but guide the needs for next-generation astrophysical missions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Angular distribution of interstellar Al-26

The angular distribution and local concentration of interstellar Al-26 are calculated for five theoretical models of its origin, as a guide for future observations. The models considered relate Al-26 to current star formation (with surface CO density as its indicator), treat Al-26 as a secondary-nucleosynthesis product on seed nuclei with the same metallicity gradient as O, assume the Al-26 ejection rate is proportional to present light output, make Al-26 synthesis depend on total H I + H2 gas density, or assume that Al-26 is formed mainly in novae. The local decay and production rates for the five models are found to lie within a factor of 2 of surface density 0.0003/sq cm s, corresponding to a present (Al-26)/(Al-27) ratio of 5 x 10 to the -6th averaged over H I and H2 phases.

Leising, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A general dynamic model of flexible robot arms for control

Hamilton's principle is used to derive the dynamic model for a large class of flexible robot arms. The resultant dynamic model consists of a system of partial differential-integral equations and the dynamic boundary conditions associated with it. Some properties of the model are observed, and its application to control is discussed. This model represents an infinite-dimensional nonlinear dynamic system and yet can be turned into a finite-dimensional system that could be obtained by modal expansion, if it is desired. This provides more flexibility for control purposes as well as for the analysis of the system.

Ding, X.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

Brune, William H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Observations and analysis of O(1D) and NH2 line profiles for the coma of comet P/Halley

A set of high-resolution Fabry-Perot measurements of the coma of comet P/Halley was acquired in the (O I) 6300 A and NH2 6298.62 A emission lines. These high-resolution measurements provide the first optical observations capable of studying directly the photochemical kinetics and dynamic outflow of the coma. The observations were analyzed by a Monte Carlo Particle Trajectory Model. The agreement of the model and observed line profiles was excellent and verified the underlying dynamics, exothermic photodissociative chemistry, and collisional thermalization in the coma. The somewhat wider intrinsic line profile width for the O(1D) emission in 1986 January compared to 1986 May, is, for example, produced by the larger outflow speeds and gas temperatures nearer perihelion in January. The January O(1D) profile, which is wider than the January NH2 profile, is indicative of the photochemical kinetics in the dissociation of the parent molecules H2O and OH in the coma. The absolute calibration of the observations in 1986 January allowed the production rates for H2O and the NH2-parent molecules to be determined. The average daily water production rates derived from the O(1D) emission data for January 16 and 17 are presented. These very large water production rates are consistent with the extrapolated (and 7.6 day time variable) water production rates determined from the analysis of lower spectral resolution observations for O(1D) and H-alpha emissions that covered the time period up to January 13. The large production rates on January 16 and 17 establish that the maximum water production rate for comet Halley accurred pre-perihelion in January. Implications drawn from comparison with 18 cm radio emission data in January suggest that the peak water production rate was even larger. The average production rate for NH3 determined from the NH2 emission data for January 17 was (1.48 +/- 0.10) x 10(exp 28) molecules/s, yielding an NH3/H2O production rate ratio of 0.55%.

Smyth, William H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗