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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Dynamically-Reconfigurable Burst-Mode Link Using a Nanosecond Photonic Switch

Fast optical circuit switching has great potential to solve scaling issues with traditional packet-switch based networks and improve bandwidth and power efficiency in datacenter and high-performance computing applications. One difficultly in utilizing a fast optical switch is that the optical signal must be rapidly reacquired after each switching event so as to not significantly impact the overall throughput of the system. In this work we present a system-level integration of a nanosecond-scale $2 \times 2$ silicon photonic switch with a 25-Gbps burst-mode receiver that can lock in 31 ns. A novel FPGA-based control plane was used to generate test data, control the silicon photonic switch and burst-mode receiver, and measure bit errors at 12.5 and 20 Gbps. Error-free links (BER $< 10^{-12}$ ) with system-level reconfiguration times below 60 ns (at 20 Gbps) and 90 ns (at 12.5 Gbps) including bit- and frame-synchronization are demonstrated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The role of vascular niche and endothelial cells in organogenesis and regeneration

Highlights: • The vascular niche creates a permissive environment that realize developmental or regenerative programs. • The proximity between endothelium and cells of organs suggests a role of endothelial cells in the organs maturation. • Organs provide cues shaping vascular network structure. The term vascular niche indicate the physical and biochemical microenvironment around blood vessel where endothelial cells, pericytes, and smooth muscle cells organize themselves to form blood vessels and release molecules involved in the recruitment of hematopoietic stem cells, endothelial progenitor cells and mesenchymal stem cells. The vascular niche creates a permissive environment that enables different cell types to realize their developmental or regenerative programs. In this context, the proximity between the endothelium and the new-forming cellular components of organs suggests an essential role of endothelial cells in the organs maturation. Dynamic interactions between specific organ endothelial cells and different cellular conponents are crucial for different organ morphogenesis and function. Conversely, organs provide cues shaping vascular network structure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Quantum-Based Approach to Predict Primary Radiation Damage in Polymeric Networks

Initial atomistic-level radiation damage in chemically reactive materials is thought to induce reaction cascades that can result in undesirable degradation of macroscale properties. Ensembles of quantum-based molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations can accurately predict these cascades, but extracting chemical insights from the many underlying trajectories is a labor-intensive process that can require substantial a priori intuition. We develop here a general and automated graph-based approach to extract all chemically distinct structures sampled in QMD simulations and apply our approach to predict primary radiation damage of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), the main constituent of silicones. A postprocessing protocol is developed to identify underlying polymer backbone structures as connected components in QMD trajectories. Furthermore, these backbones form a repository of radiation-damaged structures. A scheme for extracting and updating a library of isomorphically distinct structures is proposed to identify the spanning set and aid chemical interpretation of the repository. The analyses are applied to ensembles of cascade QMD simulations in which the four element types in PDMS are selectively excited in primary knock-on atom events. Our approach reveals a much higher degree of combinatorial complexity in this system than was inferred through radiolysis experiments. Probabilities are extracted for radiation-induced network changes including formation of branch points, carbon linkages, cycles, bond scissions, and carbon uptake into the Si–O siloxane backbone network. The general analysis framework presented here is readily extendable to modeling chemical degradation of other polymers and molecular materials and provides a basis for future quantum-informed multiscale modeling of radiation damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Iodine capture with mechanically robust heat-treated Ag-Al-Si-O xerogel sorbents

Silver-loaded heat-treated aluminosilicate xerogels (Ag-HTX) were evaluated as sorbents for iodine [I2(g)] capture. The heat treatment step was performed to help increase the mechanical integrity of the gels. The synthesized xerogels were characterized using powder X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, Brunauer-Emmett-Teller analysis, gravimetric iodine loading, nanoindentation, and dynamic mechanical analysis. The structural and chemical analyses of Ag-HTX showed uniform distribution of Ag throughout the gel network after Ag-exchange. After I2(g) capture, the AgI crystallites were observed in the sorbent verifying chemisorption as the iodine capture mechanism. Iodine loading of this xerogel was 0.43 g g-1 at 150°C over 1 d and 0.52 g g-1 at 22°C over 33 d. The specific surface area of Ag-HTX was 202 m2 g-1 and decreased to 87 m2 g-1 after iodine loading. The hardness of the heat-treated xerogel was 160 times higher than heat-treated aerogel of the same composition. The heat-treatment process increased the modulus value to 40.77 MPa from 6.99 MPa of as-made xerogel, demonstrating the need for this added step in the synthesis process. These results show that Ag-HTX is a promising sorbent for I2(g) capture with good loading capacity and mechanical stability.

xerogels, aerogels, iodine capture, hardness testi↗

Generalization in quantum machine learning from few training data

Modern quantum machine learning (QML) methods involve variationally optimizing a parameterized quantum circuit on a training data set, and subsequently making predictions on a testing data set (i.e., generalizing). In this work, we provide a comprehensive study of generalization performance in QML after training on a limited number N of training data points. We show that the generalization error of a quantum machine learning model with T trainable gates scales at worst as $\sqrt{T/N}$. When only K$\ll$T gates have undergone substantial change in the optimization process, we prove that the generalization error improves to $\sqrt{K/N}$. Our results imply that the compiling of unitaries into a polynomial number of native gates, a crucial application for the quantum computing industry that typically uses exponential-size training data, can be sped up significantly. We also show that classification of quantum states across a phase transition with a quantum convolutional neural network requires only a very small training data set. Other potential applications include learning quantum error correcting codes or quantum dynamical simulation. Our work injects new hope into the field of QML, as good generalization is guaranteed from few training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improved dryland carbon flux predictions with explicit consideration of water-carbon coupling

Dryland ecosystems are dominant influences on both the trend and interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. Despite their importance, dryland carbon dynamics are not well-characterized by current models. Here, we present DryFlux, an upscaled product built on a dense network of eddy covariance sites in the North American Southwest. To estimate dryland gross primary productivity, we fuse in situ fluxes with remote sensing and meteorological observations using machine learning. DryFlux explicitly accounts for intra-annual variation in water availability, and accurately predicts interannual and seasonal variability in carbon uptake. Applying DryFlux globally indicates existing products may underestimate impacts of large-scale climate patterns on the interannual variability of dryland carbon uptake. We anticipate DryFlux will be an improved benchmark for earth system models in drylands, and prompt a more sensitive accounting of water limitation on the carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A deep potential model with long-range electrostatic interactions

Machine learning models for the potential energy of multi-atomic systems, such as the deep potential (DP) model, make molecular simulations with the accuracy of quantum mechanical density functional theory possible at a cost only moderately higher than that of empirical force fields. However, the majority of these models lack explicit long-range interactions and fail to describe properties that derive from the Coulombic tail of the forces. To overcome this limitation, we extend the DP model by approximating the long-range electrostatic interaction between ions (nuclei + core electrons) and valence electrons with that of distributions of spherical Gaussian charges located at ionic and electronic sites. The latter are rigorously defined in terms of the centers of the maximally localized Wannier distributions, whose dependence on the local atomic environment is modeled accurately by a deep neural network. In the DP long-range (DPLR) model, the electrostatic energy of the Gaussian charge system is added to short-range interactions that are represented as in the standard DP model. The resulting potential energy surface is smooth and possesses analytical forces and virial. Missing effects in the standard DP scheme are recovered, improving on accuracy and predictive power. By including long-range electrostatics, DPLR correctly extrapolates to large systems the potential energy surface learned from quantum mechanical calculations on smaller systems. We illustrate the approach with three examples: the potential energy profile of the water dimer, the free energy of interaction of a water molecule with a liquid water slab, and the phonon dispersion curves of the NaCl crystal.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Canted standing spin-wave modes of permalloy thin films observed by ferromagnetic resonance

Non-collinear spin structures in materials that combine perpendicular and in-plane magnetic anisotropies are of great technological interest for microwave and spin wave-assisted magnetization switching. [Co/Pt] multilayers are well-known perpendicular anisotropy materials that have the potential to pin the magnetization of a soft magnetic layer, such as permalloy (Py), that has in-plane anisotropy, thereby forming a magnetic exchange spring. Here we report on multilayered [Co/Pt]/Pt/Py films, where an additional ultrathin Pt spacer has been included to control the coupling between the sub-units with in-plane and perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. Vector network analyser (VNA)-ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) measurements were made to obtain a complete picture of the resonant conditions, while the dynamical response of the sub-units was probed by synchrotron-based element- and phase selective x-ray detected FMR (XFMR). For all samples, only slight pinning of the dynamic magnetization of the Py by the [Co/Pt] was noted, and the FMR results were dominated by the 50 nm thick Py layer. Out-of-plane VNA-FMR maps reveal the presence of additional modes, e.g. a perpendicular standing spin-wave (PSSW) state. However, as the magnetic field is reduced below the saturation field, the PSSW state morphs continuously through a series of canted standing spin-wave (CSSW) states into a horizontal standing spin-wave (HSSW) state. The PSSW, CSSW and HSSW states are well described using a multilayer model of the Py film. The observation of CSSW modes is of particular relevance to microwave assisted magnetic recording, where microwave excitation stimulates precession of a soft layer canted out of plane by a pulsed magnetic field.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Enhancing Cyber Resilience of Networked Microgrids using Vertical Federated Reinforcement Learning

This paper presents a novel federated reinforcement learning (Fed-RL) methodology to inject sufficient resiliency into the operations of the network of microgrids. We consider adversarial actions to the voltage and power control loop reference signals at the grid forming (GFM) inverters in the microgrids which are essential to integrate renewable resources. Therefore, we formulate a resilient reinforcement learning training setup that uses these adversarial injections to generate episodic trajectories and train the RL agents to alleviate their impact on performance. To circumvent the concerns about data-sharing and privacy for different owners of the microgrids in the networked setting, we bring in the aspects of the federated operation to propose novel Fed-RL algorithms. As the dynamics of each microgrid are coupled due to electrical interlinks, the conventional federated RL approaches using decoupled independent environments are not applicable, which leads us to propose a multi-agent vertically federated variation of actor-critic algorithms, namely federated soft actor-critic (FedSAC). We have performed numerical simulations on an IEEE 123-bus benchmark test feeder with three microgrids by creating a customized simulation setup by encapsulating the microgrid dynamic simulations in GridLAB-D/HELICS co-simulation platform with the OpenAI Gym environment and validated the proposed resilient and secured learning methodology.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), reinforcement learni↗

Metagenome-assembled genomes from topsoils collected during NEON campaign in East River, CO (06/14/2018-06/28/2018)

The Watershed Function Science Focus Area (WF SFA) at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab is working to build a mechanistic understanding of the distribution and dynamics of biogeochemical processes in mountainous watersheds and their response to perturbation. In June 2018, the NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) Airborne Observatory Platform (AOP) performed a taskable airborne imaging campaign to collect visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR data across 330 km2 in the Upper East River at Crested Butte, CO. We conducted a parallel ground sampling campaign to sample vegetation traits, as well as soil physical, chemical, and microbiological characteristics. We collected these samples from 438 sites across 12 locations spanning much of the elevation, topographic, and geologic variability across the study area. A subset of 250 samples were used for soil metagenomics which is presented here. In addition, at each site, vegetation samples were collected to measure species-specific leaf water content and leaf mass area, foliar elemental composition and foliar CN stable isotope ratios. Soil samples were collected to measure soil physical properties which include bulk density and soil texture analysis. A suite of soil chemical properties was measured from the samples collected at each site, including pH, organic matter, concentrations exchangeable cations, total elemental composition, and the concentrations of extractable N pools (e.g. total free amino acids, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved organic N, and total dissolved N). Additionally, we have measured soil microbial biomass CN stoichiometry. Here, we present 1982 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community from topsoil collected from during NEON 2018 campaign. All metagenomes were sequenced at JGI (Joint Genome Institute) (GOLD Study ID: Gs0149986). Metagenomes were assembled using JGI Metagenome Workflow (10.1128/mSystems.00804-20). The dataset includes (1) zip files for 1982 MAG fasta files (neon_genomes1-5.tar.gz, split into 5 tarballs to keep tarballs under 0.5 GB), (2) neon_Gs0149986_samples_soilproperties_metagenomes.csv: the sample information together with the accession numbers for the underlying metagenomes and the associated soil physical and chemical measurements in NMDC (National Microbiome Data Collaborative) compliant format, (3) neon_Gs0149986.kml: location bounding box file for the sampled locations, (4) samples.csv: sample metadata file used to register Internationall Generic Sample Numbers (IGSNs), (5) flmd.csv: file level metadata file, and (6) dd.csv: data dictionary file. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Single-Photon Detector & Counter for Transduction

Over the recent years, quantum computers have procured the attention of the public, largely due to their fast factoring capabilities and potential for efficient simulation of quantum dynamics \cite{RevModPhys.79.135}. This interest, coupled with advances in quantum transduction, could lead to the realization of a quantum distributed network, effectively linking dilution fridges across vast distances. Presently, there are several qubit systems developed for encoding quantum information. They primarily fall into two categories: those exploiting optical frequencies for excitation, and those operating at microwave frequencies. Optical frequency qubit systems include trapped ions, neutral atoms, quantum dots, and solid-state defects. Microwave frequency qubit system encompass superconducting qubits (transmon) and spins in crystals. Among these, transmons are particularly intriguing due to their low-loss of photons at microwave frequencies. The Josephson effect within a superconducting circuit enables high-fidelity quantum operations \cite{Microwave-optical_quantum_frequency_conversion}. Thus, it is non-trivial to develop an apparatus for efficiently bridging microwave and optical frequency regimes.

Bautista-Cortezano, Pablo↗

Expanding the representation of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation processes with graph network-based simulators

We explored a novel framework for simulating the small-scale processes that drive the evolution of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation particles, which are a critical gap in the predictive understanding of weather and climate. Particle-based methods have emerged as an effective tool for modeling aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, but existing particle-based models are computationally too expensive to simulate the large domains relevant for the atmosphere or to represent the full suite of relevant processes. The lack of a comprehensive and efficient reference model is a critical bottleneck in our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and our ability to parameterize these processes for regional- and global-scale simulations. To address this need, we explored an approach to accelerate and expand particle-based models using a new machine learning approach, graph network-based simulators (GNS). Rather than modeling the evolution of the system by numerically integrating continuity equations, the GNS represents dynamics through learned message passing. Our aim was to develop fast and accurate surrogate models for particle-based simulations. We explored applying GNS to simulate cloud droplet transport, growth, and evaporation under turbulent conditions, but we found the GNS over-smoothed the simulations. We then applied the GNS to simulate aerosol dynamics through gas condensation and found the GNS was able to reproduce the benchmark, physics-based simulation with high accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vehicle Position Detection Based on Machine Learning Algorithms in Dynamic Wireless Charging

Dynamic wireless charging (DWC) has emerged as a viable approach to mitigate range anxiety by ensuring continuous and uninterrupted charging for electric vehicles in motion. DWC systems rely on the length of the transmitter, which can be categorized into long-track transmitters and segmented coil arrays. The segmented coil array, favored for its heightened efficiency and reduced electromagnetic interference, stands out as the preferred option. However, in such DWC systems, the need arises to detect the vehicle’s position, specifically to activate the transmitter coils aligned with the receiver pad and de-energize uncoupled transmitter coils. This paper introduces various machine learning algorithms for precise vehicle position determination, accommodating diverse ground clearances of electric vehicles and various speeds. Through testing eight different machine learning algorithms and comparing the results, the random forest algorithm emerged as superior, displaying the lowest error in predicting the actual position.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Causality-respecting adaptive refinement for PINNs: enabling precise interface evolution in phase field modeling

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for solving physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). However, their accuracy in dynamical systems, particularly those involving sharp moving boundaries with complex initial morphologies, remains a challenge. Here, this study introduces an approach combining residual-based adaptive refinement (RBAR) with causality-informed training to enhance the performance of PINNs in solving spatio-temporal PDEs. Our method employs a three-step iterative process: initial causality-based training, RBAR-guided domain refinement, and subsequent causality training on the refined mesh. Applied to the Allen-Cahn equation, a widely-used model in phase field simulations, our approach demonstrates significant improvements in solution accuracy and computational efficiency over traditional PINNs. Notably, we observe an ‘overshoot and relocate’ phenomenon in dynamic cases with complex morphologies, showcasing the method’s adaptive error correction capabilities. This synergistic interaction between RBAR and causality training enables accurate capture of interface evolution, even in challenging scenarios where traditional PINNs fail. Our framework not only resolves the limitations of uniform refinement strategies but also provides a generalizable methodology for solving a broad range of spatio-temporal PDEs. The enhanced performance of the RBAR–causality combined framework demonstrates its strong potential for advancing PINN-based modeling of physical systems characterized by complex, evolving interfaces.

Allen-Cahn equations↗