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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

An interactive program for software reliability modeling

With the tremendous growth in computer software, the demand has arisen for producing cost effective reliable software. Over the last 10 years an area of research has developed which attempts to address this problem by estimating a program's current reliability by modeling either the times between error detections or the error counts in past testing periods. A new tool for interactive software reliability analysis using the computer is described. This computer program allows the user to perform a complete reliability analysis using any of eight well-known models appearing in the literature. Some of the capabilities of the program are illustrated by means of an analysis of a set of simulated error data.

Farr, W. H.↗

Manipulation and statistical analysis of the fluid flow of polymer semiconductor solutions during meniscus-guided coating

Recent work in structure–processing relationships of polymer semiconductors have demonstrated the versatility and control of thin-film microstructure offered by meniscusguided coating (MGC) techniques. Here, we analyze the qualitative and quantitative aspects of solution shearing, a model MGC method, using coating blades augmented with arrays of pillars. The pillars induce local regions of high strain rates—both shear and extensional—not otherwise possible with unmodified blades, and we use fluid mechanical simulations to model and study a variety of pillar spacings and densities. We then perform a statistical analysis of 130 simulation variables to find correlations with three dependent variables of interest: thin-film degree of crystallinity and transistor field-effect mobilities for charge-transport parallel (Μ para ) and perpendicular (Μ perp ) to the coating direction. Our study suggests that simple fluid mechanical models can reproduce substantive correlations between the induced fluid flow and important performance metrics, providing a methodology for optimizing blade design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty Modeling for Mars Ascent Vehicle’s Aerodynamic Database Development

The design of the Mars Ascent Vehicle - Mars Sample Return (MAV-MSR) trajectories requires an accurate assessment of flight performance. Typically, these trajectories are developed by flight mechanics analysis to meet complex mission requirements and then flight performance assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Consequently, it is crucial to develop an aerodynamic aerodatabase as an input model for flight mechanics analysis to provide static and dynamic force and moment coefficients under specific flight conditions. The force and moment coefficients in the MAV aerodatabase are determined using the FUN3D computational fluid dynamics solver. Firstly, an overview of the aerodatabase is presented to demonstrate its applicability to trajectory-defined simulations. This effort is followed by an initial attempt to quantify uncertainties in the force and moment coefficients necessary for updating the current aerodatabase. The uncertainty model identifies uncertainty adders and multipliers for coefficient-based forces and moments through a direct comparison between FUN3D and wind tunnel test data from NASA Marshall Space Center's 14x14 inch Trisonic Wind Tunnel. These uncertainties aim to encompass various changes in Mach number, angle of attack, and aerodynamic roll angle.

Uncertainty analysis↗

From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗

Reconfigurable Antennas for High Data Rate Multi-beam Communication Systems

High-speed (2-100 Mb/sec) wireless data communication - whether land- or satellite-based - faces a major challenge: high error rates caused by interference and unpredictable environments. A planar antenna system that can be reconfigured to respond to changing conditions has the potential to dramatically improve data throughput and system reliability. Moreover, new planar antenna designs that reduce array size, weight, and cost can have a significant impact on terrestrial and satellite communication system performance. This research developed new individually-reconfigurable planar antenna array elements that can be adjusted to provide multiple beams while providing increased scan angles and higher aperture efficiency than traditional diffraction-limited arrays. These new elements are microstrip spiral antennas with specialized tuning mechanisms that provide adjustable radiation patterns. We anticipate that these new elements can be used in both large and small arrays for inter-satellite communication as well as tracking of multiple mobile surface-based units. Our work has developed both theoretical descriptions as well as experimental prototypes of the antennas in both single element and array embodiments. The technical summary of the results of this work is divided into six sections: A. Cavity model for analysis and design of pattern reconfigurable antennas; B. Performance of antenna in array configurations for broadside and endfire operation; C. Performance of antenna in array configurations for beam scanning operation; D. Simulation of antennas in infinite phased arrays; E. Demonstration of antenna with commercially-available RF MEMS switches; F. Design of antenna MEMS switch combinations for direct simultaneous fabrication.

Bernhard, Jennifer T.↗

Assisted Authoring of Model-Based Systems Engineering Documents

In systems engineering practices system design and analysis have historically been performed using a document-centric approach where stakeholders produce a number of documents that represent their views on a system under development. Given the ad-hoc, disparate, and informal nature of natural language documents, these views become quickly inconsistent. Rigor in engineering work is also lost in the transition from model based engineering design and analysis to engineering documents. Once the documents are delivered, the engineering portion of the work is disconnected. In the Open Model Based Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE), Cross-References (aka transclusions) synthesize data for engineering when the information is not simply hyperlinked, but referenced in place in a document, upgrading a document-based process with model-based engineering technology. Those Cross-References are nowadays partially created manually, putting a burden on the engineer who is authoring the document.This paper presents an approach which can assist the engineer by providing machine-generated suggestions for Cross-References using language processing, graph analysis, and clustering technologies on model data managed by the OpenMBEE infrastructure.

Gomes, Ivan↗

The Effect of Diffusional Transport and Surface Catalysis on the Aerothermodynamic Heating for Martian Atmospheric Entry

For the reentry heating of 70-degree blunt sphere-cones entering Mars at velocities in excess of 6 km/sec, a study was performed to determine the magnitude of both convective and catalytic heating on the cone forebody. Case studies of the peak heating conditions for the current NASA Mars Pathfinder entry probe, as well as the peak heating conditions of the proposed NASA Mars 2001 aerobraking orbiter mission were performed. Since the actual behavior of the chemical recombination of Mars atmosphere hypersonic shock layer species on heat shield materials is not known, and no experimental studies of any consequence have been done to determine surface reaction rates for the CO2 system, a parametric analysis of various reaction schemes and surface catalytic mechanistic models was performed. In many cases the actual Mars entry probe will have a heat shield composed of an ablative material which can either partially or completely preclude the existence of catalytic surface recombination phenomena. The extent of this blockage effect has not been examined at this time and is not considered in this effort. Instead only non-ablative computations are performed to separately evaluate the full extent of the surface catalysis and related diffusional phenomena. Parametric studies include peak heating point comparisons of non-catalytic, partially catalytic and fully catalytic total surface heat transfer for three difference surface recombination catalytic mechanisms (with and without simultaneous CO + O and O + O recombination) as well as with different species diffusion models. Diffusion model studies include constant Schmidt number (equal diffusivities) and the bifurcation, approximate multi-component diffusion model. Since the gas phase reaction kinetics for the Mars CO2 based atmosphere have also not been validated, the effect of two different (fast and slow) sets of gas kinetics on heat transfer is presented.

Henline, William D.↗

Modeling of particle transport, neutrals and radiation in magnetically-confined plasmas with Aurora

In this work, we present Aurora, an open-source package for particle transport, neutrals and radiation modeling in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas. Aurora's modern multi-language interface enables simulations of 1.5D impurity transport within high-performance computing frameworks, particularly for the inference of particle transport coefficients. A user-friendly Python library allows simple interaction with atomic rates from the Atomic Data and Atomic Structure database as well as other sources. This enables a range of radiation predictions, both for power balance and spectroscopic analysis. We discuss here the superstaging approximation for complex ions, as a way to group charge states and reduce computational cost, demonstrating its wide applicability within the Aurora forward model and beyond. Aurora also facilitates neutral particle analysis, both from experimental spectroscopic data and other simulation codes. Leveraging Aurora's capabilities to interface SOLPS-ITER results, we demonstrate that charge exchange is unlikely to affect the total radiated power from the ITER core during high performance operation. Finally, we describe the ImpRad module in the one modeling framework for integrated task framework, developed to enable experimental analysis and transport inferences on multiple devices using Aurora.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Developing novel electrodes with ultralow catalyst loading for high-efficiency hydrogen production in proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells

Hydrogen plays more crucial roles for decarbonizing the planets and meeting the climate challenges because of its high energy density and zero-emission. It can be produced with proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells (PEMECs) driven by sustainable and renewable energy resources. Although PEMECs have a number of advantages, including high purity production, quick response, and the ability to operate at high pressure facilitating the gas delivering, their performance and cost greatly hinder their commercial-scale applications. To achieve high-efficiency and cost-reduced hydrogen production in PEMECs, we proposed thin engineered liquid/gas diffusion layers (LGDLs) and associated electrodes, i.e., catalyst-coated LGDLs (CCLGDLs), over conventional porous transport layers (PTLs) and catalyst-coated membranes (CCMs). The research approaches in this project are based on material synthesis, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations, component design and treatment, numerical modeling, and cost analysis. The thin and tunable LGDLs (TT-LGDLs) and CCLGDLs were successfully developed with great performance improvement as demonstrated in lab-scale, bench-scale, and system-scale electrolyzer tests. The electrode thickness was reduced from 370 µm to less than 100 µm with simplified fabrication processes. With the catalytically enhanced Ir-based catalyst coating, the as-developed CCLGDLs with a catalyst loading of 0.34 mg Ir /cm 2 achieved a cell performance of 1.77 V at 2 A cm -2 , exhibiting the catalyst mass activity enhanced by >20 times with significant catalyst saving over conventional catalyst cell design. In-situ PEMEC characterizations, including the current distribution mapping and high-speed and multiscale visualizations, were conducted for a deeper understanding of mass transport and electrochemical reactions within an electrolyzer with LGDLs and CCLGDLs. A 2D cell model was developed and validated for the enhanced performance on TT-LGDL through reducing ohmic losses due to nonuniform hydration and water transport. Further, the cost analysis results have shown a path to move beyond equivalency and surpass costs associated with the project baseline. In this project, the design and fabrication of TT-LGDLs and CCLGDLs will contribute to the performance enhancement, manufacturing simplification, and cost reduction for PEMECs and other energy conversion devices, thus shortening their pathways towards commercialization. This project also provides a good foundation for furthering the in-situ reaction interface research.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Modeling Molten Salt Spreading and Heat Transfer using MELTSPREAD – Model Development Updates

This report summarizes spreading and heat transfer results calculated using MELTSPREAD for a scenario of molten FLiNaK spilling onto a flat stainless steel substrate that was inspired by the “maximum credible accident” scenario of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). MELTSPREAD was developed at Argonne to model the one-dimensional flowing and freezing of molten corium and was applied to model molten salts for the first time during FY21. The molten salt MELTSPREAD model that was developed during FY21 was updated as part of this work using a corrected heat of fusion value of FLiNaK and to accommodate a larger salt spill volume. The model was run with and without the inclusion of contributions from decay heat and a sensitivity analysis of initial spill conditions was performed to determine the importance of those factors on model outcome. The results provide insight into the expected spreading and heat transfer behavior of simulated and irradiated fuel salt that has been spilled and indicate aspects of the model to be revised in future versions of the MELTSPREAD model for applications to molten salt.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Comparison of Analytical and Numerical Performance Predictions for a Regenerative Heat Exchanger in the International Space Station Node 3 Internal Active Thermal Control System

The complexity of International Space Station (ISS) systems modeling often necessitates the concurrence of various dissimilar, parallel analysis techniques to validate modeling. This was the case with a feasibility and performance study of the ISS Node 3 Regenerative Heat Exchanger (RHX). A thermo-hydraulic network model was created and analyzed in SINDA/FLUINT. A less complex, closed form solution of the system dynamics was created using Excel. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief description of the modeling processes utilized, the results and benefits of each to the ISS Node 3 RHX study.

Wise, Stephen A.↗

Orion Artemis I As Flown MMOD Analysis

Introduction The Lockheed Martin Orion spacecraft conducted the Artemis I flight around the Moon from November 16 through December 11, 2022. After the flight, an engineer from the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Group performed a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris MMOD analysis using the Bumper 3 risk assessment tool to predict the number of small impacts that would likely have occurred during the mission. Separately, a team from the same group inspected the Orion capsule for hypervelocity impact damage features. The results of the inspection were compared to those of the analysis to aid in improving the analysis, including the environment models. Scope of Work The spacecraft geometry model was created by Lockheed Martin during construction of the Artemis I Orion vehicle based on Computer Aided Design (CAD) models of the vehicle. New hypervelocity impact testing was performed to verify Ballistic Limit Equations (BLEs) used in the analysis to link impactor size and damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS). The exact trajectory flown was recorded during the flight, including vehicle attitude. This data was used in conjunction with the ORDEM 3.2 and MEM 3 environment modeling tools to create models of particle flux impacting the spacecraft throughout the mission. Meteoroid shower forecast information was also included to account for additional particle flux associated with meteoroid showers. Inspection of the Orion capsule included the Backshell thermal tiles and the tape covering it, windows, fabric thermal materials, and small areas of other materials. Potential MMOD damage found was characterized using various techniques, including optical microscopy, computed tomography scanning, and X-ray spectroscopy. Findings The number of craters found in the Backshell tile, and their size distribution, matches well with the Bumper analysis prediction. Tape, window, and other material impacts recorded similarly align to Bumper analysis predictions. Conclusions and Recommendations This comparison of analysis with inspection of the hardware provides valuable insight into the MMOD environment and how accurately analysis tools assess the impact risk to spacecraft. As this was the first large, non-ablative returned surface from a lunar mission, this analysis extends the MMOD community’s insight beyond low Earth orbit into cis-lunar space.

MMOD↗

Orion Artemis I As Flown MMOD Analysis

Introduction The Lockheed Martin Orion spacecraft conducted the Artemis I flight around the Moon from November 16 through December 11, 2022. After the flight, an engineer from the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Group performed a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris MMOD analysis using the Bumper 3 risk assessment tool to predict the number of small impacts that would likely have occurred during the mission. Separately, a team from the same group inspected the Orion capsule for hypervelocity impact damage features. The results of the inspection were compared to those of the analysis to aid in improving the analysis, including the environment models. Scope of Work The spacecraft geometry model was created by Lockheed Martin during construction of the Artemis I Orion vehicle based on Computer Aided Design (CAD) models of the vehicle. New hypervelocity impact testing was performed to verify Ballistic Limit Equations (BLEs) used in the analysis to link impactor size and damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS). The exact trajectory flown was recorded during the flight, including vehicle attitude. This data was used in conjunction with the ORDEM 3.2 and MEM 3 environment modeling tools to create models of particle flux impacting the spacecraft throughout the mission. Meteoroid shower forecast information was also included to account for additional particle flux associated with meteoroid showers. Inspection of the Orion capsule included the Backshell thermal tiles and the tape covering it, windows, fabric thermal materials, and small areas of other materials. Potential MMOD damage found was characterized using various techniques, including optical microscopy, computed tomography scanning, and X-ray spectroscopy. Findings The number of craters found in the Backshell tile, and their size distribution, matches well with the Bumper analysis prediction. Tape, window, and other material impacts recorded similarly align to Bumper analysis predictions. Conclusions and Recommendations This comparison of analysis with inspection of the hardware provides valuable insight into the MMOD environment and how accurately analysis tools assess the impact risk to spacecraft. As this was the first large, non-ablative returned surface from a lunar mission, this analysis extends the MMOD community’s insight beyond low Earth orbit into cis-lunar space.

MMOD↗

GaAs solar cell photoresponse modeling using PC-1D V2.1

Photoresponse data of high efficiency GaAs solar cells were analyzed using PC-1D V2.1. The approach required to use PC-1D for photoresponse data analysis, and the physical insights gained from performing the analysis are discussed. In particular, the effect of Al(x)Ga(1-x)As heteroface quality was modeled. Photoresponse or spectral quantum efficiency is an important tool in characterizing material quality and predicting cell performance. The strength of the photoresponse measurement lies in the ability to precisely fit the experimental data with a physical model. PC-1D provides a flexible platform for calculations based on these physical models.

Huber, D. A.↗

Modeling Isothermal Reduction of Iron Ore Pellet Using Finite Element Analysis Method: Experiments & Validation

Iron ore pellet reduction experiments were performed with pure hydrogen (H2) and mixtures with carbon monoxide (CO) at different ratios. For direct reduction processes that switch dynamically between reformed natural gas and hydrogen as the reductant, it is important to understand the effects of the transition on the oxide reduction kinetics to optimize the residence time of iron ore pellets in a shaft reactor. Hence, the reduction rates were studied by varying experimental parameters such as the temperature (800, 850 & 900 °C), reactant gas flow rate (100, 150 & 200 cm3/min), pellet size and composition of the reactant gas mixture. The rate of reduction was observed to increase with an increase in temperature and reactant gas flow rate, but it decreased with an increase in pellet size. SEM greyscale analysis was performed to analyze the porosity and phase composition of partially reduced pellets. The porosity of the pellets was observed to increase from 0.3 for unreacted pellet to 0.42 for a completely reduced pellet. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDAX) analysis was performed to identify the phases observed in the SEM images. The fraction of iron phase was observed to increase from the shell region of the pellet to the core region with an increase in the degree of reduction. A 2D-axisymmetric numerical model was developed on COMSOL Multiphysics, and it was validated using the conversion (X) vs. time curves obtained from each experiment. The model was able to accurately predict the total time needed for the complete conversion of a single iron ore pellet for multiple experiments. Effects of changes in the porosity and tortuosity of the pellet on the model were also studied and the rate of reduction was observed to be sensitive to changes in both porosity and tortuosity. The SEM analysis and the model results show that tortuosity is higher for pellets reduced with H2 than for pellets reduced with H2-CO gas mixtures.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sixteen multiple-amplifier sensing charge-coupled devices and characterization techniques targeting the next generation of astronomical instruments

We present a candidate sensor for future spectroscopic applications, such as a Stage-5 Spectroscopic Survey Experiment or the Habitable Worlds Observatory. This type of charge-coupled device (CCD) sensor features multiple in-line amplifiers at its output stage allowing multiple measurements of the same charge packet, either in each amplifier or in the different amplifiers. Recently, the operation of an eight-amplifier sensor has been experimentally demonstrated, and we present the operation of a 16-amplifier sensor. This new sensor enables a noise level of ∼1 erms− with a single sample per amplifier. In addition, it is shown that sub-electron noise can be achieved using multiple samples per amplifier. In addition to demonstrating the performance of the 16-amplifier sensor, we aim to create a framework for future analysis and performance optimization of this type of detectors. New models and techniques are presented to characterize specific parameters, which are absent in conventional CCDs and Skipper CCDs: charge transfer between amplifiers and independent and common noise in the amplifiers and their processing.

16 multiple-amplifer sensing CCD (MAS-CCD)↗