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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Parameterization of planetary wave breaking in the middle atmosphere

A parameterization of planetary wave breaking in the middle atmosphere has been developed and tested in a numerical model which includes governing equations for a single wave and the zonal-mean state. The parameterization is based on the assumption that wave breaking represents a steady-state equilibrium between the flux of wave activity and its dissipation by nonlinear processes, and that the latter can be represented as linear damping of the primary wave. With this and the additional assumption that the effect of breaking is to prevent further amplitude growth, the required dissipation rate is readily obtained from the steady-state equation for wave activity; diffusivity coefficients then follow from the dissipation rate. The assumptions made in the derivation are equivalent to those commonly used in parameterizations for gravity wave breaking, but the formulation in terms of wave activity helps highlight the central role of the wave group velocity in determining the dissipation rate. Comparison of model results with nonlinear calculations of wave breaking and with diagnostic determinations of stratospheric diffusion coefficients reveals remarkably good agreement, and suggests that the parameterization could be useful for simulating inexpensively, but realistically, the effects of planetary wave transport.

Garcia, Rolando R.↗

The impact of dynamic data assimilation on the numerical simulations of the QE II cyclone and an analysis of the jet streak influencing the precyclogenetic environment

A mesoscale numerical model is combined with a dynamic data assimilation via Newtonian relaxation, or 'nudging', to provide initial conditions for subsequent simulations of the QE II cyclone. Both the nudging technique and the inclusion of supplementary data are shown to have a large positive impact on the simulation of the QE II cyclone during the initial phase of rapid cyclone development. Within the initial development period (from 1200 to 1800 UTC 9 September 1978), the dynamic assimilation of operational and bogus data yields a coherent two-layer divergence pattern that is not well defined in the model run using only the operational data and static initialization. Diagnostic analysis based on the simulations show that the initial development of the QE II storm between 0000 UTC 9 September and 0000 UTC 10 September was embedded within an indirect circulation of an intense 300-hPa jet streak, was related to baroclinic processes extending throughout a deep portion of the troposphere, and was associated with a classic two-layer mass-divergence profile expected for an extratropical cyclone.

Manobianco, John↗

Low thrust chemical rocket technology

An on-going technology program to improve the performance of low thrust chemical rockets for spacecraft on-board propulsion applications is reviewed. Improved performance and lifetime is sought by the development of new predictive tools to understand the combustion and flow physics, introduction of high temperature materials and improved component designs to optimize performance, and use of higher performance propellants. Improved predictive technology is sought through the comparison of both local and global predictions with experimental data. Predictions are based on both the RPLUS Navier-Stokes code with finite rate kinetics and the JANNAF methodology. Data were obtained with laser-based diagnostics along with global performance measurements. Results indicate that the modeling of the injector and the combustion process needs improvement in these codes and flow visualization with a technique such as 2-D laser induced fluorescence (LIF) would aid in resolving issues of flow symmetry and shear layer combustion processes. High temperature material fabrication processes are under development and small rockets are being designed, fabricated, and tested using these new materials. Rhenium coated with iridium for oxidation protection was produced by the Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) process and enabled an 800 K increase in rocket operating temperature. Performance gains with this material in rockets using Earth storable propellants (nitrogen tetroxide and monomethylhydrazine or hydrazine) were obtained through component redesign to eliminate fuel film cooling and its associated combustion inefficiency while managing head end thermal soakback. Material interdiffusion and oxidation characteristics indicated that the requisite lifetimes of tens of hours were available for thruster applications. Rockets were designed, fabricated, and tested with thrusts of 22, 62, 440 and 550 N. Performance improvements of 10 to 20 seconds specific impulse were demonstrated. Higher performance propellants were evaluated: Space storable propellants, including liquid oxygen (LOX) as the oxidizer with nitrogen hydrides or hydrocarbon as fuels. Specifically, a LOX/hydrazine engine was designed, fabricated, and shown to have a 95 pct theoretical c-star which translates into a projected vacuum specific impulse of 345 seconds at an area ratio of 204:1. Further performance improvment can be obtained by the use of LOX/hydrogen propellants, especially for manned spacecraft applications, and specific designs must be developed and advanced through flight qualification.

Schneider, Steven J.↗

Mechanical Components Branch Overview

Mr. James Zakrajsek, chief of the Mechanical Components Branch, presented an overview of research conducted by the branch. Branch members perform basic research on mechanical components and systems, including gears and bearings, turbine seals, structural and thermal barrier seals, and space mechanisms. The research is focused on propulsion systems for present and advanced aerospace vehicles. For rotorcraft and conventional aircraft, we conduct research to develop technology needed to enable the design of low noise, ultra safe geared drive systems. We develop and validate analytical models for gear crack propagation, gear dynamics and noise, gear diagnostics, bearing dynamics, and thermal analyses of gear systems using experimental data from various component test rigs. In seal research we develop and test advanced turbine seal concepts to increase efficiency and durability of turbine engines. We perform experimental and analytical research to develop advanced thermal barrier seals and structural seals for current and next generation space vehicles. In space mechanisms, we conduct fundamental research on lubricants, materials, components and mechanisms subjected to deep space and planetary environments.

Source record↗

Optical Spectrum of the Compact Planetary Nebula IC 5117

High resolution spectroscopic data of the very compact planetary nebula IC 5117 are obtained in the optical wavelengths, 3700A - 10050A, with the Hamilton Echelle Spectrograph at Lick Observatory, and which have been analyzed along with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) UV archive data. Although a diagnostic diagram shows significant density and temperature fluctuations, our analysis indicates that the nebular gas may be represented by a homogeneous shell of extremely high density gas, N(sub epsilon) approx. 90 000 /cu cm. The average electron temperatures, e.g. indicated by the [OIII] diagnostics, are around 12 000 K. We construct a photoionization model to represent most of the observed line intensities, and the physical condition of this compact nebulosity. Based on the semi-empirical ionization correction approach, and model indications, we derived the elemental abundances: He, C, N, O, Ne, and Ar appear to be normal or marginally depleted compared to the average planetary nebula, while the remaining elements, S, Cl, and K appear to be enhanced. IC 5117 is perhaps a very young compact planetary nebula, slightly more evolved than the other well-known compact planetary nebula IC 4997. The central stellar temperature is likely to be around 120 000 K, evolved from a C-rich AGB progenitor.

Hyung, Siek↗

Overview of Glenn Mechanical Components Branch Research

Mr. James Zakrajsek, chief of the Mechanical Components Branch, gave an overview of research conducted by the branch. Branch members perform basic research on mechanical components and systems, including gears and bearings, turbine seals, structural and thermal barrier seals, and space mechanisms. The research is focused on propulsion systems for present and advanced aerospace vehicles. For rotorcraft and conventional aircraft, we conduct research to develop technology needed to enable the design of low noise, ultra safe geared drive systems. We develop and validate analytical models for gear crack propagation, gear dynamics and noise, gear diagnostics, bearing dynamics, and thermal analyses of gear systems using experimental data from various component test rigs. In seal research we develop and test advanced turbine seal concepts to increase efficiency and durability of turbine engines. We perform experimental and analytical research to develop advanced thermal barrier seals and structural seals for current and next generation space vehicles. Our space mechanisms research involves fundamental investigation of lubricants, materials, components and mechanisms for deep space and planetary environments.

Zakrajsek, James↗

Helicity Generation and Evolution in Coronal Mass Ejections

A key issue in current modeling of coronal mass ejections is the role of helicity. A number of authors have argued that CMEs are somehow the result of the accumulation of too much helicity in the solar corona - the so-called helicity charging concept. We present results demonstrating that this concept is incorrect, and that the only essential ingredient for eruption is magnetic free energy. We also show that the Taylor conjecture is not valid for the pre-emption corona. On the other hand, A Taylor-like evolution does seem to be applicable to the post-eruption flux rope in the far outer corona. Results from numerical simulations of the CME breakout model will be presented that include magnetic helicity evolution. Other diagnostic information such as the total magnetic energy, total kinetic energy, and local magnetic energy density are also tracked and compared with global and local helicity. Boundary conditions that allow for finite and zero helicity injection into the computational domain will also be presented and compared.

Spicer, Daniel S.↗

Research on the Natural Variability of Climate and the Impact of Anthropogenic Forcing on Climate

The paper, "Latitude-dependent vertical mixing and the tropical thermocline in a global OGCM", was revised and published in Geophysical Research Letters. It treats the new GISS mixing scheme which includes the latitudinal dependence of the interior ocean turbulence field reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel. When implemented in the 3x3 degree NCAR CSMl OGCM [NCOMl] the new mixing scheme produces an improved, sharper equatorial thermoclines in both the Atlantic and the Pacific while simultaneously maintaining the realistic meridional overturning and northward heat transports found already with the previous GISS scheme. Also the paper "Diagnostics of the oceanic thermohaline circulation in a coupled climate model" describing earlier work on the grany was published.

Stone, Peter H.↗

CFD Computation of Broadband Fan Interaction Noise

In this study, a 3-D, unsteady, Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes CFD code coupled to an acoustic calculation is used to predict the contribution of the exit guide vanes to broadband fan noise. The configuration investigated is that corresponding to the NASA Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) 22-in fan rig. Then an acoustic model introduced by Nallasamy which is based on 2-D strip theory is used to compute the broadband rotor-stator interaction noise. One configuration from the SDT matrix is considered here: the fan speed correlating to approach, and outlet guide vane count designed for cut-off of the blade passage frequency. Thus, in the chosen configuration, there are 22 rotor blades and 54 stator blades. The stators are located 2.5 tip chords downstream of the rotor trailing edge. The RANS computations are used to obtain the spectra of the unsteady surface pressure on the exit guide vanes. This surface pressure is then integrated together with the Green's function for and infinite cylindrical duct to obtain the acoustic field. The results from this investigation validate the use of the CFD code along with the acoustic model for broadband fan noise predictions. The validation enables future investigations such as the determination of rotor tip clearance and stator solidity effects on fan rotor-stator interaction noise.

Grace, Sheryl M.↗

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

Shah, R. V.↗

Derivation of the Most Influential Medical Conditions for An Extended Duration Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND: The risk of loss of mission due to medical conditions may be influenced by loss of crew life (LOCL), need for evacuation (RTDC; return to definitive care), and crew task time lost. Predicting what medical conditions are most likely to lead to crew morbidity and mortality may influence medical system design, clinical capability prioritization, and research strategies. NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces tool (IMPACT) applies Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology to assess these risks. OVERVIEW: A team of subject matter experts (SME) from a variety of medical disciplines developed a consensus-based process to determine 120 of the most clinically relevant medical conditions for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) . This IMPACT Condition List (ICL) expanded upon previous work done for Integrated Medical Model (IMM). For each condition a best-case and worst-case definition were derived. These definitions were used to identify probability of occurrence, proportion of cases that are best case vs. worst case, clinical phase duration, and risk of outcomes (task time loss [TTL], RTDC, and LOCL) for both treated and untreated states. These data were sources from existing spaceflight databases (e.g. Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health), relevant models (e.g. the ISS fire model), and/or terrestrial literature. Each condition was then tied to diagnostic and therapeutic resources and capabilities. IMPACT was then run for the LDLOLS DRM (see Abstract #2 for this panel). DISCUSSION: This abstract will present the process for generating the IMPACT condition list, the relevant data for each clinical condition, and present results for the ten most influential conditions impacting LOCL, RTDC, and TTL for a representative extended duration Artemis mission.

A Nelson↗

Nonintrusive Diagnostic Strategies for Arcjet Stream Characterization

In the previous lecture, the issues related to arcjet flow modeling were introduced, and the limitations of conventional instrumentation in addressing these issues were discussed. The general level of understanding of the arcjet flows was seen to preclude the use of arcjets as aerothermodynamic test facilities beyond the current role in aerothermal material testing, despite their long test duration capability. In this section, the focus will be on new developments in spectroscopic instrumentation and techniques that can be brought to bear on the fundamental problem of arcjet stream characterization. Although a wide selection of arcjet facilities were introduced in the previous section, the discussion of nonintrusive diagnostic instrumentation will be restricted to the large-scale, segmented, constricted-arc heater facilities that are most widely used in thermal protection material testing for aerospace applications. After a brief review of the important features of arcjet flows, the topic of nonintrusive, optical diagnostics is introduced with a discussion of some of the basic aspects of radiative transitions. The lecture is then organized into two sections covering emission measurements and laser-induced fluorescence measurements. Emission measurements are presented next for different regions of arcjet flows, while the fluorescence measurements are presented for the free stream region only. Summaries are given for each of the two main sections, and observations on arcjet characterization by optical diagnostics in general are given at the end.

Fletcher, Douglas G.↗

Validation of edge turbulence codes against the TCV-X21 diverted L-mode reference case

Self-consistent full-size turbulent-transport simulations of the divertor and scrape-off-layer (SOL) of existing tokamaks have recently become feasible. This enables the direct comparison of turbulence simulations against experimental measurements. In this work, we perform a series of diverted ohmic L-mode discharges on the tokamak à configuration variable (TCV) tokamak, building a first-of-a-kind dataset for the validation of edge turbulence models. This dataset, referred to as TCV-X21, contains measurements from five diagnostic systems from the outboard midplane (OMP) to the divertor targets—giving a total of 45 one- and two-dimensional comparison observables in two toroidal magnetic field directions. The experimental dataset is used to validate three flux-driven 3D fluid-turbulence models—GBS, GRILLIX and TOKAM3X. With each model, we perform simulations of the TCV-X21 scenario, individually tuning the particle and power source rates to achieve a reasonable match of the upstream separatrix value of density and electron temperature. We find that the simulations match the experimental profiles for most observables at the OMP—both in terms of profile shape and absolute magnitude—while a comparatively poorer agreement is found towards the divertor targets. The match between simulation and experiment is seen to be sensitive to the value of the resistivity, the heat conductivities, the power injection rate and the choice of sheath boundary conditions. Additionally, despite targeting a sheath-limited regime, the discrepancy between simulations and experiment also suggests that the neutral dynamics should be included. The results of this validation show that turbulence models are able to perform simulations of existing devices and achieve reasonable agreement with experimental measurements. Where disagreement is found, the validation helps to identify how the models can be improved. By publicly releasing the experimental dataset and validation analysis, this work should help to guide and accelerate the development of predictive turbulence simulations of the edge and SOL.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for prediction of regions of high Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes uncertainty

Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) models are widely used in industry to predict fluid flows, despite their acknowledged deficiencies. Not only do RANS models often produce inaccurate flow predictions, but there are very limited diagnostics available to assess RANS accuracy for a given flow configuration. If experimental or higher fidelity simulation results are not available for RANS validation, there is no reliable method to evaluate RANS accuracy. This paper explores the potential of utilizing machine learning algorithms to identify regions of high RANS uncertainty. Three different machine learning algorithms were evaluated: support vector machines, Adaboost decision trees, and random forests. The algorithms were trained on a database of canonical flow configurations for which validated direct numerical simulation or large eddy simulation results were available, and were used to classify RANS results on a point-by-point basis as having either high or low uncertainty, based on the breakdown of specific RANS modeling assumptions. Classifiers were developed for three different basic RANS eddy viscosity model assumptions: the isotropy of the eddy viscosity, the linearity of the Boussinesq hypothesis, and the non-negativity of the eddy viscosity. It is shown that these classifiers are able to generalize to flows substantially different from those on which they were trained. As a result, feature selection techniques, model evaluation, and extrapolation detection are discussed in the context of turbulence modeling applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A mathematical framework for ejecta cloud dynamics with application to source models and piezoelectric mass measurements

We present a mathematical framework for describing the dynamical evolution of an ejecta cloud generated by a generic ejecta source model. We consider a piezoelectric sensor fielded in the path of an ejecta cloud, for experimental configurations in which the ejecta are created at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through vacuum to the stationary sensor. To do so, we introduce the concept of a time- and velocity-dependent ejecta “areal mass function.” We derive expressions for the analytic (“true”) accumulated ejecta areal mass at the sensor and the measured (“inferred”) value obtained via the standard method for analyzing piezoelectric voltages. In this way, we derive an exact expression and upper bound for the error imposed upon a piezoelectric ejecta mass measurement (in a perfect system) by the assumption of instantaneous creation, which is commonly required for momentum diagnostic analyses. This error term is zero for truly instantaneous source models; otherwise, the standard piezoelectric analysis is guaranteed to overestimate the true mass. When combined with a piezoelectric dataset, this framework provides a unique solution for the ejecta particle velocity distribution, subject to the assumptions inherent in the data analysis. The framework also leads to strong boundary conditions that any ejecta source model must satisfy in order to be consistent with apparently global properties of piezoelectric measurements from a wide range of experiments. We demonstrate this methodology by applying it to the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability+self-similar velocity distribution ejecta source model currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Translational Systems Pharmacology‐Based Predictive Assessment of Drug‐Induced Cardiomyopathy

Drug‐induced cardiomyopathy contributes to drug attrition. We compared two pipelines of predictive modeling: (1) applying elastic net (EN) to differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of drugs; (2) applying integer linear programming (ILP) to construct each drug's signaling pathway starting from its targets to downstream proteins, to transcription factors, and to its DEGs in human cardiomyocytes, and then subjecting the genes/proteins in the drugs' signaling networks to EN regression. We classified 31 drugs with availability of DEGs into 13 toxic and 18 nontoxic drugs based on a clinical cardiomyopathy incidence cutoff of 0.1%. The ILP‐augmented modeling increased prediction accuracy from 79% to 88% (sensitivity: 88%; specificity: 89%) under leave‐one‐out cross validation. The ILP‐constructed signaling networks of drugs were better predictors than DEGs. Per literature, the microRNAs that reportedly regulate expression of our six top predictors are of diagnostic value for natural heart failure or doxorubicin‐induced cardiomyopathy. This translational predictive modeling might uncover potential biomarkers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Mars-GRAM and Planned New Features

For altitudes below 80 km, Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is based on output climatology from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). At COSPAR 2002, results were presented of validation tests of Mars-GRAM versus data from Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Radio Science (RS) experiment. Further validation tests are presented comparing Mars- GRAM densities with those from the European Mars Climate Database (MCD), and comparing densities from both Mars-GRAM and MCD against TES observations. Throughout most of the height and latitude range of TES data (040 km and 70s to 70N), good agreement is found between atmospheric densities from Mars-GRAM and MCD. However, at the season and latitude zone for Mars Phoenix arrival and landing (Ls = 65 to 80 degrees and latitude 65 to 75N), Mars-GRAM densities are about 30 to 45 percent higher than MCD densities near 40 km altitude. Further evaluation is warranted concerning potential impact of these model differences on planning for Phoenix entry and descent. Three planned features for Mars-GRAM update are also discussed: (1) new MGCM and Thermospheric General Circulation Model data sets to be used as a revised basis for Mars-GRAM mean atmosphere, (2) a new feature to represent planetary-scale traveling waves for upper altitude density variations (such as found during Mars Odyssey aerobraking), and (3) a new model for effects of high resolution topographic slope on winds near the surface (0 to 4.5 km above MOLA topography level). Mars-GRAM slope winds will be computed from a diagnostic (algebraic) relationship based on Ye, Segal, and Pielke (1990). This approach differs from mesoscale models (such as MRAMS and Mars MM5), which use prognostic, full-physics solutions of the time- and space-dependent differential equations of motion. As such, slope winds in Mars-GRAM will be consistent with its "engineering-level" approach, and will be extremely fast and easy to evaluate, compared with mesoscale model solutions. Mars-GRAM slope winds are not being suggested as a replacement for sophisticated, full-physics Mars mesoscale models, but may have value, particularly for preliminary screening of large numbers of candidate landing sites for future Mars missions, such as Phoenix and Mars Science Laboratory. Test output is presented from Mars-GRAM slope winds in the area of Gusev Crater and Valles Marineris.

Justus, C. G.↗