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Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground‐Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground‐Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities

We report on high‐performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (⁠Mw⁠) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite‐difference code. We computed motions obeying physics‐based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane‐layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground‐motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional‐scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between‐event uncertainties (⁠τ⁠) of ground‐motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2–10 s (frequencies 0.1–5 Hz). The within‐event standard deviation ϕ of ground‐motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2–0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source‐normalized ratios of intensities (3D/1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions with median and within‐event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site‐specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.

Rodgers, Arthur J.↗

Core Analysis E-Reports Produced for the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration for Wells 13-10A, 13-14, and 32-8 of the Farnsworth Unit, Texas

The submission is three electronic reports (e-reports) produced by Terra Tek, a former Schlumberger company, for and under the oversight of the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP). The SWP designed and implemented a coring and core analysis program in conjunction with the previous field operator Chaparral Energy, L.L.C. The main SWP contacts who oversaw the coring and core analysis program, including geologic core descriptions and sample selection for testing by the Terra Tek, are listed below in the Authors section. The three reports are for Wells 13-10A, 13-14, and 32-8 of the Farnsworth Unit, TX, a site of the SWP's CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery project. The e-reports include many data types that are not listed in full detail here, but may include: geomechanical, geochemical, and petrophysical measurements; white light and UV core photos; spectral gamma logs on the core; and Heterogeneous Rock Analysis logs. Fracture core review reports are included for Wells 13-14 and 32-8. The three e-reports each have many subfolders with the various types of data in spreadsheets, pdfs, image files, or other formats. The main e-reports for each well are listed by the well name. The sub-folder “E-Report” for each well has a Report.html file, which, when opened, will have hyperlinks to the various data sets and information. The files in the zipped folder will need to be extracted for the Report.html files to work properly. These authors thank Joseph Hall, a geologist formerly of Chaparral Energy, L.L.C., for assistance in designing the coring program, his geologic expertise of the Farnsworth Unit, and his assistance with characterizing the core. Christopher Gillespie, of Terra Tek at the time, managed the myriad geomechanical, geochemical, and petrophysical measurements provided by Terra Tek for this project. The core from which the samples were collected for this project are housed at the Subsurface Data and Core Libraries of the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, Socorro, New Mexico, USA. Funding for this project is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) through the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) under Award No. DE-FC26-05NT42591. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. These e-reports describe objective technical results and analysis. Any subjective views or opinions that might be expressed in the reports do not necessarily represent the views of the US Department of Energy or the United States Government.

Caprock↗

Django Remote Submission

The Django Remote Submission (DRS) is a Django (Django, n.d.) application to manage long running job submission, including starting the job, saving logs, and storing results. It is an independent project available as a standalone pypi package (PyPi, n.d.). It can be easily integrated in any Django project. The source code is freely available as a GitHub repository (django-remote-submission, n.d.). To run the jobs in background, DRS takes advantage of Celery (Celery, n.d.), a powerful asynchronous job queue used for running tasks in the background, and the Redis Server (Redis, n.d.), an in-memory data structure store. Celery uses brokers to pass messages between a Django Project and the Celery workers. Redis is the message broker of DRS. In addition DRS provides real time monitoring of the progress of Jobs and associated logs. Through the Django Channels project (Channels, n.d.), and the usage of Web Sockets, it is possible to asynchronously display the Job Status and the live Job output (standard output and standard error) on a web page.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Use of a New Analytical Model To Match Production Data and Identify Opportunities To Maximize Well Productivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Reservoir

The low productivity of the oil wells in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) Trend, located in Louisiana and Mississippi, is a mystery. Production data from 55 wells in the TMS Trend were analyzed to identify possible means of enhancing well productivity. The -1/2 slope in a log–log plot for reservoir linear flow (RLF) was observed for some wells, but not all, and the -1 slope for boundary–dominated flow (BDF) has not been seen in the past 5 years of production. The behavior of the TMS wells is attributed to the ultralow permeability of the TMS matrix and the decline of fracture conductivity, both of which delay the BDF. On the basis of the concept of the distance of investigation, derived from the radius–of–investigation concept, the matrix permeability of the seven TMS wells was estimated to be between 34 and 65 nd, with an average of 51 nd. A new mathematical model for production decline of multifractured horizontal wells was developed taking into consideration the time–dependent fracture conductivity during the BDF period. This model fits TMS–well production data, with an average error of 6.12% and an R2 value of 0.96. Assuming constant matrix permeability, fitting the new model to the production data in the BDF period gives a rate of fracture–conductivity decline of between 0.20 and 0.74% per month. The new mathematical model reveals opportunities to optimize well completion to enhance well productivity in the TMS Trend. For a given amount of fracture proppant allocated to a well, the shortest possible fracture spacing should be used to maximize well productivity. If the number of fractures is fixed as a constraint of well completion design, well productivity is inversely proportional to the square root of fracture spacing (i.e., if the fracture spacing is shortened by fourfold, well productivity is expected to double). If the horizontal wellbore length is fixed as a constraint of well completion, well productivity is inversely proportional to fracture spacing (i.e., if the fracture spacing is shortened by 50%, well productivity is expected to double).

Engineering↗

Surface energy of fayalite and its effect on Fe-Si-O oxygen buffers and the olivine-spinel transition

The surface energy (hydrated surfaces) of fayalite ($α$-Fe 2 SiO 4 ) was determined to be 2.47 ± 0.25 J/m 2 using high-temperature oxide melt solution calorimetry. This is larger than the surface energy of magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ), but lower than that of forsterite ($α$-Mg 2 SiO 4 ). The changes in the positions of the quartz-fayalite-magnetite (QFM) and quartz-iron-fayalite (QIF) buffers with particle size reduction were calculated. QFM is lowered in $f_{O_2}$ by 3–7 log units as a function of temperature for 30 nm particles while QIF is raised by 1–2 log units. The estimated surface energy difference between olivine and spinel polymorphs decreases the pressure of the olivine-spinel transition in Fe 2 SiO 4 by about 1 GPa.

quartz-iron-fayalite (QIF) buffers↗

Wyoming CarbonSAFE: Advancing Commercialization of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in Fossil-Rich Wyoming

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin (PRB) is the most prolific coal producer and exporter in the United States and the State of Wyoming’s largest oil-producing basin. In addition to being a leading energy producer, the PRB is the site of research programs whose aim is to develop and integrate low-carbon technologies into existing fossil fuel energy industries. Much of the PRB’s low-carbon research is focused around Dry Fork Station (DFS), which is the newest coal-fired power station in the western US. Currently, DFS hosts five carbon capture projects, including pilot-scale capture projects that utilize different capture technologies and a full front-end engineering and design (FEED) study, a commercial CO 2 pipeline for nearby CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery industry, and is also co-located with the Wyoming Integrated Test Center, which is a host facility for unconventional carbon utilization research (i.e. flue gas carbon-to-products innovations). DFS is also the host site for the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. Wyoming CarbonSAFE, funded by the Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, is a multi-phased program (currently in Phase II) whose core objective is developing and validating storage sites within a complex capable of storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 over a 30 year project period using carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). This paper will provide an overview of the project to-date, showing that CarbonSAFE goals are achievable with respect to geologic, environmental, regulatory, CO 2 source and economic conditions, and why the State of Wyoming offers one of the more favorable environments to advance the commercialization studies. In 2019, the project team designed and completed a ~10,000 foot stratigraphic test well just south of DFS. From this well, the team collected over 600 feet of core, fluid samples from target injection zones, and a full petrophysical log suite. In addition, legacy 2D seismic lines were acquired and a 3D seismic survey was acquired in the fall of 2020. The objective of these field activities has been to identify and characterize target storage reservoirs and associated caprock. This complex has several reservoirs that could meet commercial injection goals, and over 4000 feet of associated caprock. Simulations of site performance suggest that stacked injection provides the most effective storage strategy, and would necessitate several sites within the greater complex to meet final project injection goals. Other work within this project includes the development of a business-case around proximal fields with CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery potential and existing tax credits, assessment of regulatory conditions, including pore space ownership and Class VI injection well permitting requirements, implementation of a robust public outreach Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3821220 GHGT-15 McLaughlin 2 program, and surface site characterization activities that have focused on environmental factors. In the PRB and at DFS, the State of Wyoming and other entities have made carbon management a priority of its future energy industry by providing a regulatory and business framework that is favorable to advancing these technologies. These endeavors will become more realistic with the successful implementation of Wyoming CarbonSAFE, and its ability to secure and validate commercial-scale CCUS at the center of Wyoming’s premier low-carbon research efforts.

McLaughlin, Fred↗

Modeling and Evaluation of Geophysical Methods for Monitoring and Tracking CO2 Migration

Geological sequestration has been proposed as a viable option for mitigating the vast amount of CO 2 being released into the atmosphere daily. Test sites for CO 2 injection have been appearing across the world to ascertain the feasibility of capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide. A major concern with full scale implementation is monitoring and verifying the permanence of injected CO 2 . Geophysical methods, an exploration industry standard, are non-invasive imaging techniques that can be implemented to address that concern. Geophysical methods, seismic and electromagnetic, play a crucial role in monitoring the subsurface pre- and post-injection. Seismic techniques have been the most popular but electromagnetic methods are gaining interest. The primary goal of this project was to develop a new geophysical tool, a software program called GphyzCO2, to investigate the implementation of geophysical monitoring for detecting injected CO 2 at test sites. The GphyzCO2 software consists of interconnected programs that encompass well logging, seismic, and electromagnetic methods. The software enables users to design and execute 3D surface-to-surface (conventional surface seismic) and borehole-to-borehole (cross-hole seismic and electromagnetic methods) numerical modeling surveys. The generalized flow of the program begins with building a complex 3D subsurface geological model, assigning properties to the models that mimic a potential CO 2 injection site, numerically forward model a geophysical survey, and analyze the results. A test site located in Warren County, Ohio was selected as the test site for the full implementation of GphyzCO2. Specific interest was placed on a potential reservoir target, the Mount Simon Sandstone, and cap rock, the Eau Claire Formation. Analysis of the test site included well log data, physical property measurements (porosity), core sample resistivity measurements, calculating electrical permittivity values, seismic data collection, and seismic interpretation. The data was input into GphyzCO2 to demonstrate a full implementation of the software capabilities. Part of the implementation investigated the limits of using geophysical methods to monitor CO 2 injection sites. The results show that cross-hole EM numerical surveys are limited to under 100 meter borehole separation. Those results were utilized in executing numerical EM surveys that contain hypothetical CO 2 injections. The outcome of the forward modeling shows that EM methods can detect the presence of CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Potential Leakage Pathways and Mineralization within Caprocks for Geologic Storage of CO 2

We used a multifaceted approach to investigate the nature of caprocks above, and the interface between, reservoir-quality rocks that might serve as targets for carbon storage. Fieldwork in southeastern Utah examined the regional- to m-scale nature of faults and fractures across the sedimentiological interfaces. We also used microscopic analyses and mechanical modeling to examine the question as to how the contacts between units interact, and how fractures may allow fluids to move from reservoirs to caprock. Regional-­scale analyses using ASTER data enabled us to identify location of alteration, which led to site-­specific studies of deformation and fluid flow. In the Jurassic Carmel Formation, a seal for the Navajo Sandstone, we evaluated mesoscale variability in fracture density and morphology and variability in elastic moduli in the Jurassic Carmel Formation, a proposed seal to the underlying Navajo Sandstone for CO 2 geosequestration. By combining mechano-stratigraphic outcrop observations with elastic moduli derived from wireline log data, we characterize the variability in fracture pattern and morphology with the observed variability in rock strength within this heterolithic top seal. Outcrop inventories of discontinuities show fracture densities decrease as bed thickness increases and fracture propagation morphology across lithologic interfaces vary with changing interface type. Dynamic elastic moduli, calculated from wireline log data, show that Young’s modulus varies by up to 40 GPa across depositional interfaces, and by an average of 3 GPa across the reservoir/seal interface. We expect that the mesoscale changes in rock strength will affect the distributions of localized stress and thereby influence fracture propagation and fluid flow behavior within the seal. These data provide a means to closely tie outcrop observations to those derived from subsurface data and estimates of subsurface rock strength. We also studied damage zones associated normal faults in the Permian Cedar Mesa Sandstone, southeastern Utah. These faults are characterized by a single slip surfaces and damage zones containing deformation bands, veins, and joints. Field observations include crosscutting relationships, permeability increase, rock strength decrease, and ultraviolet light induced mineral fluorescence within the damage zone. These field observations combined with the interpreted paragenetic sequence from petrographic analysis, suggests a deformation history of reactivation and several mineralization events in an otherwise low-permeability fault. All deformation bands and veins fluoresce under ultraviolet light, suggesting connectivity and a shared mineralization history. Pre-­existing deformation features act as loci for younger deformation and mineralization events, this fault and its damage zone illustrate the importance of the fault damage zone to subsurface fluid flow. We model a simplified stress history in order to understand the importance of rock properties and magnitude of tectonic stress on the deformation features within the damage zone. The moderate confining pressures, possible variations in pore pressure, and the porous, fine-­grained nature of the Cedar Mesa Sandstone results in a fault damage zone characterized by enhanced permeability, subsurface fluid flow, and mineralization. Structural setting greatly influences fracture spacing and orientation. Three structural settings were examined and include fault proximity, a fold limb of constant dip, and a setting proximal to the syncline hinge. Fracture spacing and dominant fracture orientation vary at each setting and distinctions between regional and local paleo-stress directions can be made. Joints on the fold limb strike normal to the fold axis/bedding and are interpreted to be sub-parallel to the maximum regional paleo-stress direction as there is no fold related strain. Joints proximal to faults and the syncline hinge may have formed under local stress conditions associated with folding and faulting, and in some cases, are perpendicular to the maximum regional paleo-stress direction. Macroscale analyses of the Iron Wash fault, which cuts most of the stratigraphy of the reservoir- seal analogs, reveals that seal bypass occurs along faults with mixed lithologic composition. While portions of the fault may be effective seals, when modeled as a whole the fault zone cannot support a high CO 2 column. We adapted oil-field methods to calculate column heights and sealing capacities. Examination of the burial and tectonic histories of the rocks, coupled with field- and micro-­scale studies, allow us to examine the potential for seal failure using basic rock mechanics failure analyses. These studies reveal that the sealing lithologies experienced multiple episodes of deformation that resulted in numerous fractures and small faults. In a stress state based on burial history and overburden loads, we show that most of the seals could fail with normal to slightly excess pore pressures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Omen: identifying potential spear-phishing targets before the email is sent.

We present the results of a two year project focused on a common social engineering attack method called "spear phishing". In a spear phishing attack, the user receives an email with information specifically focused on the user. This email contains either a malware-laced attachment or a link to download the malware that has been disguised as a useful program. Spear phishing attacks have been one of the most effective avenues for attackers to gain initial entry into a target network. This project focused on a proactive approach to spear phishing. To create an effective, user-specific spear phishing email, the attacker must research the intended recipient. We believe that much of the information used by the attacker is provided by the target organization's own external website. Thus when researching potential targets, the attacker leaves signs of his research in the webserver's logs. We created tools and visualizations to improve cybersecurity analysts' abilities to quickly understand a visitor's visit patterns and interests. Given these suspicious visitors and log-parsing tools, analysts can more quickly identify truly suspicious visitors, search for potential spear-phishing targeted users, and improve security around those users before the spear phishing email is sent.

Wendt, Jeremy Daniel.↗

Development and Demonstration of a Security Core Component

In recent years, the convergence of a number of trends has resulted in Cyber Security becoming a much greater concern for electric utilities. A short list of these trends includes: · Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) have evolved from depending on proprietary hardware and operating software toward using standard off-the-shelf hardware and operating software. This has meant that these ICSs can no longer depend on “security through obscurity. · Similarly, these same systems have evolved toward using standard communications protocols, further reducing their ability to rely upon obscurity. · The rise of the Internet and the accompanying demand for more data about virtually everything has resulted in formerly isolated ICSs becoming at least partially accessible via Internet-connected networks. · “Cyber crime” has become commonplace, whether it be for industrial espionage, reconnaissance for a possible cyber attack, theft, or because some individual or group “has something to prove.” Electric utility system operators are experts at running the power grid. The reality is, especially at small and mid-sized utilities, these SCADA operators will by default be “on the front line” if and when a cyber attack occurs against their systems. These people are not computer software, networking, or cyber security experts, so they are ill-equipped to deal with a cyber security incident. Cyber Security Manager (CSM) was conceived, designed, and built so that it can be configured to know what a utility’s SCADA/EMS/DMS system looks like under normal conditions. To do this, CSM monitors log messages from any device that uses the syslog standard. It can also monitor a variety of statistics from the computers that make up the SCADA/EMS/DMS: outputs from host-based security tools, intrusion detection systems, SCADA alarms, and real-time SCADA values – even results from a SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) system. When the system deviates from “normal,” CSM can alert the operator in language that they understand that an incident may be occurring, provide actionable intelligence, and informing them what actions to take. These alarms may be viewed on CSM’s built-in user interface, sent to a SCADA alarm list, or communicated via email, phone, pager, or SMS message. In recognition of the fact that “real world” training for cyber security events is impractical, CSM has a built-in Operator Training Simulator capability. This can be used stand alone to create simulated event scenarios for training purposes. It may also be used in conjunction with the recipient’s SCADA/EMS/DMS Operator Training Simulator. In addition to providing cyber security situational awareness for electric utility operators, CSM also provides tools for analysts and support personnel; in fact, the majority of user interface displays are designed for use in analyzing current and past security events. CSM keeps security-related information in long-term storage, as well as writing any decisions it makes to a (syslog) log for use forensic or other post-event analysis.

Turke, Andy↗

Integrated Geophysical Measurements for Bioremediation Monitoring: Combining Spectral Induced Polarization, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Magnetic Methods

This documents contains the final report for the project "Integrated Geophysical Measurements for Bioremediation Monitoring: Combining Spectral Induced Polarization, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Magnetic Methods" (DE-SC0007049) Executive Summary: Our research aimed to develop borehole measurement techniques capable of monitoring subsurface processes, such as changes in pore geometry and iron/sulfur geochemistry, associated with remediation of heavy metals and radionuclides. Previous work has demonstrated that geophysical method spectral induced polarization (SIP) can be used to assess subsurface contaminant remediation; however, SIP signals can be generated from multiple sources limiting their interpretation value. Integrating multiple geophysical methods, such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and magnetic susceptibility (MS), with SIP, could reduce the ambiguity of interpretation that might result from a single method. Our research efforts entails combining measurements from these methods, each sensitive to different mineral forms and/or mineral-fluid interfaces, providing better constraints on changes in subsurface biogeochemical processes and pore geometries significantly improving our understanding of processes impacting contaminant remediation. The Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) site was used as a test location for our measurements. The Rifle IFRC site is located at a former uranium ore-processing facility in Rifle, Colorado. Leachate from spent mill tailings has resulted in residual uranium contamination of both groundwater and sediments within the local aquifer. Studies at the site include an ongoing acetate amendment strategy, native microbial populations are stimulated by introduction of carbon intended to alter redox conditions and immobilize uranium. To test the geophysical methods in the field, NMR and MS logging measurements were collected before, during, and after acetate amendment. Next, laboratory NMR, MS, and SIP measurements were collected on columns of Rifle sediments during acetate amendment. The laboratory experiments were designed to simulate the field experiments; changes in geophysical signals were expected to correlate with changes in redox conditions and iron speciation. Field MS logging measurements revealed vertically stratified magnetic mineralization, likely the result of detrital magnetic fraction within the bulk alluvium. Little to no change was observed in the MS data suggesting negligible production of magnetic phases (e.g. magnetite, pyrrhotite) as a result of sulfidogenesis. Borehole NMR measurements contained high levels of noise contamination requiring significant signal processing, and analysis suggests that any changes may be difficult to differentiate from simultaneous changes in water content. Laboratory MS and NMR measurements remained relatively stable throughout the course of the acetate amendment experiment, consistent with field measurements. However, SIP measurements changed during the acetate amendment associated with the formation of iron-sulfide mineral phases; a finding that is consistent with chemical analysis of the solid phase materials in the columns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unit Price Scaling Trends for Chemical Products

To facilitate early-stage life-cycle techno-economic modeling of emerging technologies, here we identify scaling relations between unit price and sales quantity for a variety of chemical products of three categories - metal salts, organic compounds, and solvents. We collect price quotations for lab-scale and bulk purchases of chemicals from both U.S. and Chinese suppliers. We apply a log-log linear regression model to estimate the price discount effect. Using the median discount factor of each category, one can infer bulk prices of products for which only lab-scale prices are available. We conduct out-of-sample tests showing that most of the price proxies deviate from their actual reference prices by a factor less than ten. We also apply the bootstrap method to determine if a sample median discount factor should be accepted for price approximation. We find that appropriate discount factors for metal salts and for solvents are both -0.56, while that for organic compounds is -0.67 and is less representative due to greater extent of product heterogeneity within this category.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MULTILEVEL MONTE CARLO (MLMC) SIMULATIONS: PERFORMANCE RESULTS FOR SPE10 (XY SLICES)

In this report we first describe a generic multilevel Monte Carlo method and then illustrate its superior performance over a traditional single-level Monte Carlo method for second order elliptic PDEs corresponding to two-dimensional layers in (x, y)-direction of the Tenth SPE Comparative Solution project (SPE 10) which gives high-contrast permeability coefficients. The SPE10 data set is used as a coarse level in the Monte Carlo method and the respective permeability coefficient k (provided in the SPE10 dataset) is used as a mean in the simulation. The actual coefficients are drawn based on a KL-expansion assuming that the log-mean is perturbed by a log-normal distributed samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solving Graph Laplacian Systems Through Recursive Bisections and Two-Grid Preconditioning

We present a parallelizable direct method for computing the solution to graph Laplacian-based linear systems derived from graphs that can be hierarchically bipartitioned with small edge cuts. For a graph of size n with constant-size edge cuts, our method decomposes a graph Laplacian in time O(n log n), and then uses that decomposition to perform a linear solve in time O(n log n). We then use the developed technique to design a preconditioner for graph Laplacians that do not have this property. Finally, we augment this preconditioner with a two-grid method that accounts for much of the preconditioner's weaknesses. We present an analysis of this method, as well as a general theorem for the condition number of a general class of two-grid support graph-based preconditioners. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the studied methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cosmological Constraints on Decoupled Dark Photons and Dark Higgs

Any neutral boson such as a dark photon or dark Higgs that is part of a non-standard sector of particles can mix with its standard model counterpart. When very weakly mixed with the Standard Model, these particles are produced in the early Universe via the freeze-in mechanism and subsequently decay back to standard model particles. In this work, we place constraints on such mediator decays by considering bounds from Big Bang nucleosynthesis and the cosmic microwave background radiation. We find both nucleosynthesis and CMB can constrain dark photons with a kinetic mixing parameter between log ϵ ~ -10 to -17 for masses between 1 MeV and 100 GeV. Similarly, the dark Higgs mixing angle ϵ with the Standard Model Higgs is constrained between log ϵ ~ -6 to -15. Dramatic improvement on the bounds from CMB spectral distortions can be achieved with proposed experiments such as PIXIE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Micro-to Meso-scale Fractures on Sealing Behavior of Argillaceous Cap Rocks For CO 2 Sequestration

This multi-disciplinary project evaluated seal lithologies for the safety and security of long-term geosequestration of CO 2 . We used integrated studies to provide qualitative risk for potential seal failure; we integrated data sets from outcrop, core, geochemical analysis, rock failure properties from mechanical testing, geophysical wireline log analysis, and geomechanical modeling to understand the effects of lithologic heterogeneity and changing mechanical properties have on the mechanical properties of the seal. The objectives of this study were to characterize cap rock seals using natural field analogs, available drillhole logging data and whole-rock core, geochemical and isotopic analyses. Rock deformation experiments were carried out on collected samples to develop better models of risk estimation for potential cap rock seal failure. We also sampled variably faulted and fractured cap rocks to examine the impacts of mineralization and/or alteration on the mechanical properties. We compared CO 2 reacted systems to non-CO 2 reacted seal rock types to determine response of each to increased pore fluid pressures and potential for the creation of unintentional hydrofractures at depth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗