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NASA NTRS1996

Intelligent Planning and Scheduling for Controlled Life Support Systems

Planning in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) requires special look ahead capabilities due to the complex and long-term dynamic behavior of biological systems. This project characterizes the behavior of CELSS, identifies the requirements of intelligent planning systems for CELSS, proposes the decomposition of the planning task into short-term and long-term planning, and studies the crop scheduling problem as an initial approach to long-term planning. CELSS is studied in the realm of Chaos. The amount of biomass in the system is modeled using a bounded quadratic iterator. The results suggests that closed ecological systems can exhibit periodic behavior when imposed external or artificial control. The main characteristics of CELSS from the planning and scheduling perspective are discussed and requirements for planning systems are given. Crop scheduling problem is identified as an important component of the required long-term lookahead capabilities of a CELSS planner. The main characteristics of crop scheduling are described and a model is proposed to represent the problem. A surrogate measure of the probability of survival is developed. The measure reflects the absolute deviation of the vital reservoir levels from their nominal values. The solution space is generated using a probability distribution which captures both knowledge about the system and the current state of affairs at each decision epoch. This probability distribution is used in the context of an evolution paradigm. The concepts developed serve as the basis for the development of a simple crop scheduling tool which is used to demonstrate its usefulness in the design and operation of CELSS.

Leon, V. Jorge↗
NASA NTRS1996

Wind Variability in Intermediate Luminosity B Supergiants

This study used the unique spectroscopic diagnostics of intermediate luminosity B supergiants to determine the ubiquity and nature of wind variability. Specifically, (1) A detailed analysis of HD 64760 demonstrated massive ejections into its wind, provided the first clear demonstration of a 'photospheric connection' and ionization shifts in a stellar wind; (2) The international 'IUE MEGA campaign' obtained unprecedented temporal coverage of wind variability in rapidly rotating stars and demonstrated regularly repeating wind features originating in the photosphere; (3) A detailed analysis of wind variability in the rapidly rotating B1 Ib, gamma Ara demonstrated a two component wind with distinctly different mean states at different epochs; (4) A follow-on campaign to the MEGA project to study slowly rotating stars was organized and deemed a key project by ESA/NASA, and will obtain 30 days of IUE observations in May-June 1996; and (5) A global survey of archival IUE time series identified recurring spectroscopic signatures, identified with different physical phenomena. Items 4 and 5 above are still in progress and will be completed this summer in collaboration with Raman Prinja at University College, London.

Massa, Derck↗
NASA NTRS1991

Decrease in the Orbital Period of Hercules X-1

From a pulse-timing analysis of Ginga observations of the binary X-ray pulsar Her X-1 obtained during the interval 1989 April-June we have determined local orbital parameters for a Short High state. We have also determined an orbital epoch in the adjacent Main High state. By comparing these orbital solutions with previously published results, we have detected a decrease in the orbital period for Her X-1 at an average rate of dot-P/P = (- 1.32 +/- 0.16) x 10(exp -8) yr(exp -1) over the interval 1971-1989. This is substantially larger than the value predicted from current estimates of the mass transfer rate, and motivates consideration of other mechanisms of mass transfer and/or mass loss. A second result from these observations is a close agreement between orbital parameters determined separately in Main High and Short High states. This agreement places strong constraints on the obliquity of the stellar companion, HZ Her, if undergoing forced precession with a 35 day period. As a consequence further doubt is placed on the slaved-disk model as the underlying cause of the 35 day cycle in Her X-1.

Deeter, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

First Ultraviolet Spectropolarimetry of Radio-Selected BL Lacertae Objects

We present ultraviolet spectropolarimetry of the BL Lac objects OJ 287 and 0754+100 (0I 090.4) acquired with the Faint Object Spectrograph of the Hubble Space Telescope. These are the first such observations of radio-selected BL Lac objects and the polarimetry spans the wavelength range 1580-3300 A in the observer's frame. Neither object exhibited emission-line features in their UV spectra. OJ 287 was very faint during the UV observations (V approximately 16). The UV linear polarization of this object was approximately 20%. There is no indication that the degree of polarization or the polarization position angle varies with wavelength. Nearly simultaneous optical ground-based measurements show that the polarization does not significantly change with wavelength out to approximately 8000 A. The UV and optical polarization of 0754+100 was approximately 8% and also wavelength-independent during the epoch of observation. These observations confirm that the synchrotron emission that dominates the optical continuum also dominates in the ultraviolet in these two BL Lac objects. There is no evidence for significant contributions to the UV/optical flux by other emission components, and we set limits on the brightness of nonsynchrotron continuum components.

Smith, Paul S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Surfaces of Pluto and Charon

Much of the surface of Pluto consists of high-albedo regions covered to an unknown depth by Beta-N2, contaminated with CH4, CO, and other molecules. A portion of the exposed surface appears to consist of solid H2O. The remainder is covered by lower albedo material of unknown composition. The N2 ice may occur as polar caps of large extent, leaving ices and other solids of lower volatility in the equatorial regions. The low-albedo material found primarily in the equatorial regions may consist in part of solid hydrocarbons and nitriles produced from N2 and CH4 in the atmosphere or in the surface ices. Alternatively, it may arise from deposition from impacting bodies and/or the chemistry of the impact process itself. Charon's surface is probably more compositionally uniform than that of Pluto, and is covered by H2O ice with possible contaminants or exposures of other materials that are as yet unidentified. The molecular ices discovered on Pluto and Charon have been identified from near-infrared spectra obtained with Earth-based telescopes. The quantitative interpretation of those data has been achieved through the computation of synthetic spectra using the Hapke scattering theory and the optical constants of various ices observed in the laboratory. Despite limitations imposed by the availability of laboratory data on ices in various mixtures, certain specific results have been obtained. It appears that CH4 and CO are trace constituents, and that some fraction of the CH4 (and probably the CO) on Pluto is dissolved in the matrix of solid N2. Pure CH4 probably also occurs on Pluto's surface, allowing direct access to the atmosphere. Study of the nitrogen absorption band at 2.148 micrometers shows that the temperature of the N2 in the present epoch is 40 +/-2 K. The global temperature regime of Pluto can be modeled from observations of the thermal flux at far-infrared and millimeter wavelengths. The low-albedo equatorial regions must be significantly warmer than the polar regions covered by N2 (at T = 40 K) to account for the total thermal flux measured. At the present season, the diurnal skin depth of the insolation-driven thermal wave is small, and the observed mm-wave fluxes may arise from a greater depth. Alternatively, the mm-wave flux may arise from the cool, sublimation source region. The surface microstructure in the regions covered by N2 ice is likely governed by the sintering properties of this highly volatile material. The observed nitrogen infrared band strength requires that expanses of the surface be covered with cm-sized crystals of N2. Grains of H2O ice on Charon, in contrast, are probably of order 50 micrometers in size, and do not metamorphose into larger grains at a significant rate. Because of the similarities in size, density, atmosphere and surface composition between Pluto and Neptune's satellite Triton, the surface structures observed by Voyager on Triton serve as a plausible paradigm for what might be expected on Pluto. Such crater forms, tectonic structures, aeolian features, cryovolcanic structures, and sublimation-degraded topography as are eventually observed on Pluto and Charon by spacecraft will give information on their interior compositions and structures, as well as on the temperature and wind regimes over the planet's extreme seasonal cycle.

Cruikshank, Dale P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Timing the Geminga Pulsar with High-Energy Gamma-Rays

This is a continuing program to extend and refine the ephemeris of the Geminga pulsar with annual observations for the remaining lifetime of EGRET. The data show that every revolution of Geminga is accounted for during the EGRET epoch, and that a coherent timing solution linking the phase between EGRET, COS-B, amd SAS-2, observations has now been achieved. The accuracy of the gamma-ray timing is such that the proper motion of the pulsar can now be detected, consistent with the optical determination. The measured braking index over the 24.2 yr baseline is 17 +/- 1. Further observation is required to ascertain whether this very large braking index truly represents the energy loss mechanism, perhaps related to the theory in which Geminga is near its gamma-ray death line, or whether it is a manifestation of timing noise. Statistically significant timing residuals are detected in the EGRET data; they depart from the cubic ephemeris at a level of 23 milliperiods. The residuals appear to have a sinusoidal modulation with a period of about 5.1 yr. This could simply be a manifestation of timing noise, or it could be consistent with a planet of mass 1.7/sin i solar mass orbiting Geminga at a radius of 3.3/sin i AU.

Halpern, Jules P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

X-Ray Emission from the Sun in Its Youth and Old Age

We have obtained ROSAT PSPC (Roentgen Satellite Position Sensitive Proportional Counter) pointed observations of two nearby G stars of ages 70 Myr and 9.5 Gyr that are of unique importance as proxies for the Sun at the two extremes of its main-sequence evolutionary lifetime. The younger star, HD 129333 (EK Dra; G0 V), a rapid rotator with a 2.7 day period, is a strong source with an X-ray luminosity L(x)(0.2-2.4 keV) = (7.5-11.5) x 10(exp 29) erg/s. Modeling suggests a two-temperature corona with T(1) = (2.0 +/- 0.3) x 10(exp 6) K and T(2) = (9.7 +/- 0.3) x 10(exp 6) K (formal uncertainties). A continuous emission measure distribution, increasing to higher temperatures and with a cutoff at (20-30) x 10(exp 6) K, yields even better fits to the data. The old star, beta Hyi (HR 98; G2 IV), represents the Sun in the future, near the end of its hydrogen-core burning stage, when it should be rotating more slowly (present P(rot) = 25.4 day) and should have lower levels of activity. The ROSAT measurements yield L(x) = (0.9-3.0) x 10(exp 27) ergs/s and a rather cool, single coronal temperature of T = (1.7 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 6) K. For comparison, the Sun has L(x) approx. equal to 2 x 10(exp 27) ergs/s and a coronal temperature of about T = 2 x 10(exp 6) K. These stars provide information on the decline of the stellar (and specifically solar) magnetic activity from extreme youth to old age. HD 129333 is also important in that it yields an estimate of the solar soft X-ray flux in the early solar system at the epoch of the terminal stages of planetary accretion.

Dorren, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Rapid soft X-ray variability in NGC 3227

Lightcurves from the Rosat position sensitive proportional counter are presented for the Seyfert galaxy NGC3227 at two different epochs separated by two years. These lightcurves show statistically significant variability, the most rapid being a factor of 2 increase in a period of 20 min. Spectral analysis shows a simple power law featuring only Galactic absorption, can usually characterize the observed spectrum in both the low and high states. If included in the extraction of the high state spectrum, the simple power law model no longer provides an entirely acceptable fit. The addition of either a warm or cold absorber enables the data to be fitted equally well.

Stringfellow, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Sequence of Outbursts from the Transient X-Ray Pulsar GS 0834-430

GS 0834-430, a 12.3 s accretion-powered pulsar, has been observed in seven outbursts with the BATSE large-area detectors on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. The first five outbursts observed by BATSE occurred at intervals of about 107 days, while the final two outbursts were separated by about 140 days. The photon energy spectrum, measured by Earth occultation in the 20 100 keV band, can be fitted by a power law with photon index alpha approximately equals -3.7 or by an exponential spectrum with temperature kT approximately equals 15 keV, with some variations within outbursts. The source has a low pulse fraction, less than or equal to 0.15 in the 20-50 keV band. We have observed significant temporal and energy-dependent variations in epoch folded pulse profiles. Because the intrinsic torque effects for this system are at least comparable to orbital effects, pulse timing analysis did not produce a unique orbital solution. However, confidence regions for the orbital elements yielded the following 1 sigma limits: orbital period P(sub orb) = 105.8 +/- 0.4 days and eccentricity 0.10 less than or approximately equals epsilon less than or approximately equals 0.17. GS 0834-430 is most likely a Be/X-ray binary.

Wilson, Colleen A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Relationship Between Transit Velocity of Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Active Processes

Recently, it was reported that preferential relationships exist between the transit velocity V(sub T) of earthward-directed interplanetary shocks and solar active processes, in particular, eruptive filaments outside active regions (the size of the erupting filament L(sub f)) and solar flares (the value of the X-ray characteristic J). Unfortunately, statistical testing of the proposed associations was not accomplished, nor was the 'geo-effectiveness' of the events adequately described. Reported here are the results of a re-examination of the 21 eruptive filaments (SSC-EF events) and 26 X-ray flares (SSC-F events) that have been associated with storm sudden commencements (SSCs) at Earth. Simple statistical testing refutes the claim that a preferential relationship exists between V(sub T) and L(sub F), while it supports the claim that one exists between V(sub T) and J. More importantly, the inferred relationship between V(sub T) and J is found to be more complicated than previously thought. In particular, it now appears that SSC-F events may be separable into two groups, based on the value of J: a low-J group (J less than 56), in which V(sub T) varies directly with J, and a high-J group (J greater than 56), in which V(sub T) varies inversely with J. As a whole, high-J events are associated with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of low-J events, and SSC-F events with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of SSC-EF events. Further, high-J events tend to be of greater X-ray class ( greater than M3), longer duration (greater then 80 min), and are more likely to be associated with type II/IV radio emission (9 of 12) than low-J events. They also tend to occur in magnetically complex (gamma/delta configuration) active regions (10 of 12) that are large in area extent (area greater than 445 millionths of a solar hemisphere) on the day of flaring (9 of 12). Of the 9 solar proton events that affected the Earth's environment that were found to be associated with SSC-F events, six were high-J events. Concerning 'geo-effectiveness', there appears to be no preferential relationship between the value of the J-parameter and the most negative value of the Dst geomagnetic index Dst(min) following the SSC, which is found to usually occur at 6-14 h after SSC onset (18 of 26) and which ranged in value from -1 to -249 (having a median value of about -75). Of the 26 SSC-F events, only 14 can be associated with a Dst(min) less than or equal to -75, and of these only 7 were high-J events. Of the 14 storm-related events (i.e. Dst(min) less than or equal to -75), three have previously been identified as being either 'magnetic clouds' or 'bidirectional flows', both manifestations of earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Superposed epoch analyses of selected solar wind parameters and Dst during the interval of storm-related SSC-F events demonstrate that geoeffective SSC-F events tend to be associated with solar wind flows that are faster, greater in magnetic field strength, and have a rotating field which has a strong southward component shortly after SSC onset, in comparison to SSC-F events that do not have Dst(min) less than or equal to 75. Therefore, it is inferred that geoeffective SSC-F events are probably fast earthward-directed CMEs. Although no single parameter is found that can serve as a predictor of high-skill level for determining the geoeffectiveness of an SSC-F event prior to its occurrence at Earth, one finds that knowledge of the flare's hemispheric location and appearance or lack of appearance of a two-ribbon structure is sufficient to correctly predict the geoeffectiveness of 20 out of 25 of the SSC-F events (80%). Surprisingly, the association or lack of association of metric type II/IV radio emission as a characteristic for determining the geoeffectiveness of the SSC-F events proved unfruitful, as did, to a lesser extent, the duration of the X-ray emission.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Lateral Shock of the R Aquarii Jet

The R Aqr jet was observed with the VLA B-configuration at two epochs separated by approximately 13.2 yr. Comparison of the resulting 6 cm continuum images show that the radio jet has undergone a lateral counterclockwise rotation of approximately 6 deg-12 deg on the plane of the sky. The model of jet parcels on independent trajectories is difficult to reconcile with these observations and leads us to consider a path-oriented jet (i.e., younger parcels follow the same path as older parcels). Comparison of the most recent radio image with a nearly contemporaneous HST/FOC ultraviolet image at approximately 2330 Angstroms suggests that the ultraviolet emission lies along the leading side of the rotating radio jet. In conjunction with a proper motion analysis of the jet material that yields empirical space-velocity and resulting acceleration-magnitude relationships as a function of distance from the central source, we evaluate the observational results in terms of a schematic model in which the jet emission consists of plane-parallel isothermal shocks along the leading edge of rotation. In such a radiating shock, the ultraviolet-emitting region is consistent with the adiabatic region in the form of a high-temperature, low-density sheath that surrounds the cooled postshock radio-emitting region. Within the context of the schematic model, we obtain the temperatures, densities, and pressures within the preshock, adiabatic, and postshock regions as a function of distance from the central source; the physical parameters so derived compare favorably to previously published estimates. We obtain a total jet mass of 3.1 x 10(exp -5) solar mass and an age of approximately 115 yr. We evaluate the model in the context of its density-boundary condition, its applicability to an episodic or quasi-continuous jet, and angular momentum considerations.

Hollis, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multifrequency Studies

The present report concerns the following projects 'Multifrequency observations of the BL Lacertae object MK 421"; "EUVE and multifrequency observations of the quasars 3C 273 and 3C 279"; "EUVE observations of the symbiotic star RAquarii"; and "Morphology of the local HI void and ionization of He in the local ISM". The common theme of the above projects is UV observations and analysis of a wide range of astrophysical classes or objects, from the diffuse interstellar medium, to symbiotic stars (R Aqr), to active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Understanding the local (primarily neutral hydrogen or HI) interstellar medium is of great importance to detecting nearby EUV sources. Specifically, the ionization of helium is strongly influencing the extinction in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and the optical depth can vary almost by an order of magnitude depending on the degree of ionization of various species including neutral helium Vel ) and singly ionized helium (Hell). The local interstellar medium (ISM) contains a giant void. Understanding the local ISM and the extent of the HI void engulfing the Sun is crucial to our understanding of the EUV emission from nearby strongly EUV-emitting stars like R Aqr, as well as subtracting local absorption effects from absorption effects in distant sources themselves such as quasars, BL Lacertae objects and AGNs in general. A compilation of known properties of the local ISM with appropriate references has been performed. R Aqr is a symbiotic stellar system comprised of a mass-losing approx.1 - 2 solar mass Mira- like long period variable with a 387 day period and a approx. solar mass,) hot companion/accretion disk that is believed to give rise to the symmetrical jet seen at UV, optical radio wavelengths. Recent observations of R Aqr have been conducted at continuum wavelengths with the Very Large Array (VLA) at 7 mm that have resolved the stellar components in RAqr and a geometrical distance of approx. 200pc has been obtained, confirming that R Aqr is the nearest symbiotic star system to the Sun. The status of the local ISM is, therefore, of great importance in attempting to understand the UV properties of the hot companion in R Aqr and its prominent jet. Here a multifrequency approach is required from both ground observations (e.g. with the VLA) as well as from space-borne observations (with the International Ultraviolet Explorer-IUE; and the Hubble Space Telescope-HST). The R Aqr jet has been observed with the VLA B-configuration at two epochs separated by approx. 13.2 yr. Comparison of the resulting 6 cm continuum images show that the radio jet has undergone a lateral counterclockwise rotation of approx. 6 deg - 12 deg on the plane of the sky. Comparison of the most recent radio image with a nearly contemporaneous HSTIFOC ultraviolet image at approx 2330 A suggests that the UV emission lies along the leading edge of the rotating radio jet.

Kafatos, Menas↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multiwavelength Search for Correlated Time Variations in the Brightest EGRET Blazars

We have found that the emission in the blazar jets is highly stratified, as evidenced by time delays between the peaks of the flares at different wavebands. This fits well with the predictions of the jet models. Not all of the blazars have yet been observed long enough with the VLBA to determine the motions of their components. However, for those 39 blazars for which this analysis is possible as of August 1997, the apparent superluminal speeds are very high, ranging from about 10 to 35c (for a Hubble constant of 65 km/s Mpc. If this trend holds for the remainder of the sample (to be determined after the results of observations in July 1997 are analyzed along with those from previous epochs), the implication is that the EGRET-detected blazars have stronger relativistic beaming than does the general radio-bright blazar population.

Marscher, Alan P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Cluster Observations for Combined X-Ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Estimates of Peculiar Velocities and Distances

Measurements of the peculiar velocities of galaxy clusters with respect to the Hubble flow allow the determination of the gravitational field from all matter in the universe, not just the visible component. The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect (the inverse-Compton scattering of cosmic microwave background photons by the hot gas in clusters of galaxies) allows these velocities to be measured without the use of empirical distance indicators. Additionally, because the magnitude of the SZ effect is independent of redshift, the technique can be used to measure velocities out to the epoch of cluster formation. The SZ technique requires a determination of the temperature of the hot cluster gas from X-ray observations, and measurements of the SZ effect at millimeter wavelengths to separate the contribution from the thermal motions within the gas from that of the cluster peculiax velocity. We have constructed a bolometric receiver, the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Infrared Experiment, specifically to make measurements of the SZ effect at millimeter wavelengths in order to apply the SZ technique to peculiar velocity measurements. This receiver has already been used to set limits to the peculiar velocities of two galaxy clusters at z approx. 0.2. As a test of the SZ technique, the double cluster pair Abell 222 and 223 was selected for observation. Measurements of the redshifts of the two components suggest that, if the clusters are gravitationally bound, they should exhibit a relative velocity of 10OO km/ s, well above the expected precision of 200 km/ s (set by astrophysical confusion) that is expected from the SZ method. The temperature can be measured from ASCA data which we obtained for this cluster pair. However, in order to ensure that the temperature estimate from the ASCA data was not dominated by cooling flows within the cluster, we requested ROSAT HRI observations of this cluster pair. Analysis of the X-ray properties of the cluster pair is continuing by combining the ROSAT observations funded under this proposal, archival PSPC data and our own PI ASCA data. The imaging data shows that neither cluster has a strong cooling flow, although A223 is the more compact of the two components. A223 also has a sub-cluster projected 1 Mpc to the North. The observed properties of this cluster pair are strikingly similar to those of the well-studied pair of A399 and A401 which are widely believed to be interacting and are in the initial stages of merging. This strengthens our selection of this cluster pair as a test for cluster peculiar motions. Combining these X-ray observations with SUZIE measurements of the SZ effect will provide important constraints on cluster merger models. This part of the program has been heavily delayed by bad weather at Mauna Kea, however SZ observations were obtained in November 1997 as part of a separately funded effort. These data are currently being analyzed.

Lange, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

GPS Monitoring of Surface Change During and Following the Fortuitous Occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers Earthquake in our Network

Accomplishments: (1) Continues GPS monitoring of surface change during and following the fortuitous occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers earthquake in our network, in order to characterize earthquake dynamics and accelerated activity of related faults as far as 100's of kilometers along strike. (2) Integrates the geodetic constraints into consistent kinematic descriptions of the deformation field that can in turn be used to characterize the processes that drive geodynamics, including seismic cycle dynamics. In 1991, we installed and occupied a high precision GPS geodetic network to measure transform-related deformation that is partitioned from the Pacific - North America plate boundary northeastward through the Mojave Desert, via the Eastern California shear zone to the Walker Lane. The onset of the M(sub w) = 7.3 June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake sequence within this network poses unique opportunities for continued monitoring of regional surface deformation related to the culmination of a major seismic cycle, characterization of the dynamic behavior of continental lithosphere during the seismic sequence, and post-seismic transient deformation. During the last year, we have reprocessed all three previous epochs for which JPL fiducial free point positioning products available and are queued for the remaining needed products, completed two field campaigns monitoring approx. 20 sites (October 1995 and September 1996), begun modeling by development of a finite element mesh based on network station locations, and developed manuscripts dealing with both the Landers-related transient deformation at the latitude of Lone Pine and the velocity field of the whole experiment. We are currently deploying a 1997 observation campaign (June 1997). We use GPS geodetic studies to characterize deformation in the Mojave Desert region and related structural domains to the north, and geophysical modeling of lithospheric behavior. The modeling is constrained by our existing and continued GPS measurements, which will provide much needed data on far-field strain accumulation across the region and on the deformational response of continental lithosphere during and following a large earthquake, forming the basis for kinematic and dynamic modeling of secular and seismic-cycle deformation. GPS geodesy affords both regional coverage and high precision that uniquely bear on these problems.

Miller, M. Meghan↗
NASA NTRS1998

Exploring the Unknown: Selected Documents in the History of the US Civilian Space Program: Using Space - Volume 3

One of the most important developments of the twentieth century has been the movement of humanity into space with machines and people. The underpinnings of that movement -why it took the shape it did; which individuals and organizations were involved; what factors drove a particular choice of scientific objectives and technologies to be used; and the political, economic, managerial, and international contexts in which the events of the space age unfolded- are all important ingredients of this epoch transition from an earthbound to spacefaring people. This desire to understand the development of spaceflight in the United States sparked this documentary history series. 'Exploring the Unknown' is a multi-volume series containing a selection of key documents in history of the U.S. civil space program. This current volume, Volume III, focusing on the use of space for practical applications, prints 112 key documents on the history of satellite communications, remote sensing of earth, and space as an investment in economic growth, edited for ease of use. Each is introduced by a headnote providing context, bibliographical information, and background information necessary to understanding the document.

Logsdon, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Nature and Evolutionary History of GRO J1744-28

GRO J1744-28 is the first known X-ray source to display bursts, periodic pulsations, and quasi-periodic oscillations. This source may thus provide crucial clues that will lead to an understanding of the differences in the nature of the X-ray variability from various accreting neutron stars. The orbital period is 11.8 days, and the measured mass function of 1.31 x 10(exp -4) solar mass is one of the smallest among all known binaries. If we assume that the donor star is a low-mass giant transferring matter through the inner Lagrange point, then we can show that its mass is lower than approximately 0.7 solar mass and probably closer to 0.25 solar mass. Higher mass, but unevolved, donor stars are shown to be implausible. We also demonstrate that the current He core mass of the donor star lies in the range of 0.20-0.25 solar mass. Thus, this system is most likely in the final stages of losing its hydrogen-rich envelope, with only a small amount of mass remaining in the envelope. If this picture is correct, then GRO J1744-28 may well represent the closest observational link that we have between the low-mass X-ray binaries and recycled binary pulsars in wide orbits. We have carried out a series of binary evolution calculations and explored, both systematically and via a novel Monte Carlo approach, the range of initial system parameters and input physics that can lead to the binary parameters of the present-day GRO J1744-28 system. The input parameters include both the initial total mass and the core mass of the donor star, the neutron-star mass, the strength of the magnetic braking, the mass-capture fraction, and the specifics of the core mass/radius relation for giants. Through these evolution calculations, we compute probability distributions for the current binary system parameters (i.e., the total mass, core mass, radius, luminosity, and K-band magnitude of the donor star, the neutron star mass, the orbital inclination angle, and the semimajor axis of the binary). Our calculations yield the following values for the GRO J1744-28 system parameters (with 95% confidence limits in parentheses): donor star mass: 0.24 solar mass (0.2-0.7 solar mass); He core mass of the donor star: 0.22 solar mass (0.20-0.25 solar mass); neutron-star mass: 1.7 solar mass (1.39-1.96 solar mass); orbital inclination angle: 18deg (7deg-22deg); semi- major axis: 64 lt-s (60-67 lt-s); radius of the donor star: 6.2 solar radius(6-9 solar radius); luminosity of donor star: 23 solar luminosity (15-49 solar luminosity), and long-term mass transfer rate at the current epoch: 5 x 10(exp -10)solar mass/yr (2 x 10(exp -10) to 5 x 10(exp -9)solar mass/yr). We deduce that the magnetic field of the underlying neutron star lies in the range of approximately 1.8 x 10(exp 11)G to approximately 7 x 10(exp 11)G, with a most probable value of 2.7 x 10(exp 11)G. This is evidently sufficiently strong to funnel the accretion flow onto the magnetic polar caps and suppress the thermonuclear flashes that would otherwise give rise to the type 1 X-ray bursts observed in most X-ray bursters. We present a simple paradigm for magnetic accreting neutron stars where X-ray pulsars, GRO J1744-28, the Rapid Burster, and the type 1 X-ray bursters may form a continuum of possible behaviors among accreting neutron stars, with the strength of the neutron-star magnetic field serving as a crucial parameter that determines the mode of X-ray variability from a given object.

Rappaport, S.↗