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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Sea ice pattern effect on Earth’s energy budget is characterized by hemispheric asymmetry

Earth’s energy budget is sensitive to the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration (SIC) change, but the global radiative effect of changes in SIC spatial distribution has not been quantified. We show that SIC-induced radiation anomalies at the top of the atmosphere are sensitive to the location of SIC reduction in each season, which qualitatively explains how and why the effect of sea ice loss on Earth’s energy budget is determined by its spatial pattern. Idealized experiments indicate that SIC-induced surface warming is greater in the Arctic regions, resulting in a more negative Planck feedback. Global low-level cloud cover responses to Arctic and Antarctic SIC reduction are also distinct, leading to more negative SIC-cloud feedback in Arctic regions. SIC-induced albedo feedback is sensitive to latitude due to inhomogeneous solar radiation at the surface. As a result, the simulated radiative effect of SIC anomalies during 1980–2019 is dominated by variations in the spatial pattern of SIC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The AERONET Version 3 Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm, Associated Uncertainties and Comparisons to Version 2

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 (V3) aerosol retrieval algorithm is described, which is based on the Version 2 (V2) algorithm with numerous updates. Comparisons of V3 aerosol retrievals to those of V2 are presented, along with a new approach to estimate uncertainties in many of the retrieved aerosol parameters. Changes in the V3 aerosol retrieval algorithm include (1) a new polarized radiative transfer code (RTC), which replaced the scalar RTC of V2, (2) detailed characterization of gas absorption by adding NO2 and H2O to specify total gas absorption in the atmospheric column, specification of vertical profiles of all the atmospheric species, (3) new bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters for land sites adopted from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo product, (4) a new version of the extraterrestrial solar flux spectrum, and (5) a new temperature correction procedure of both direct Sun and sky radiance measurements. The potential effect of each change in V3 on single scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals was analyzed. The operational almucantar retrievals of V2 versus V3 were compared for four AERONET sites: GSFC, Mezaira, Mongu, and Kanpur. Analysis showed very good agreement in retrieved parameters of the size distributions. Comparisons of SSA retrievals for dust aerosols (Mezaira) showed a good agreement in 440 nm SSA, while for longer wavelengths V3 SSAs are systematically higher than those of V2, with the largest mean difference at 675 nm due to cumulative effects of both extraterrestrial solar flux and BRDF changes. For non-dust aerosols, the largest SSA deviation is at 675 nm due to differences in extraterrestrial solar flux spectrums used in each version. Further, the SSA 675 nm mean differences are very different for weakly (GSFC) and strongly (Mongu) absorbing aerosols, which is explained by the lower sensitivity to a bias in aerosol scattering optical depth by less absorbing aerosols. A new hybrid (HYB) sky radiance measurement scan is introduced and discussed. The HYB combines features of scans in two different planes to maximize the range of scattering angles and achieve scan symmetry, thereby allowing for cloud screening and spatial averaging, which is an advantage over the principal plane scan that lacks robust symmetry. We show that due to an extended range of scattering angles, HYB SSA retrievals for dust aerosols exhibit smaller variability with solar zenith angles (SZAs) than those of almucantar (ALM), which allows extension of HYB SSA retrievals to SZAs less than 50∘ to as small as 25∘. The comparison of SSA retrievals from closely time-matched HYB and ALM scans in the 50 to 75∘ SZA range showed good agreement with the differences below ∼0.005. We also present an approach to estimate retrieval uncertainties which utilizes the variability in retrieved parameters generated by perturbing both measurements and auxiliary input parameters as a proxy for retrieval uncertainty. The perturbations in measurements and auxiliary inputs are assumed as estimated biases in aerosol optical depth (AOD), radiometric calibration of sky radiances combined with solar spectral irradiance, and surface reflectance. For each set of Level 2 Sun/sky radiometer observations, 27 inputs corresponding to 27 combinations of biases were produced and separately inverted to generate the following statistics of the inversion results: average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values. From these statistics, standard deviation (labeled U27) is used as a proxy for estimated uncertainty, and a lookup table (LUT) approach was implemented to reduce the computational time. The U27 climatological LUT was generated from the entire AERONET almucantar (1993–2018) and hybrid (2014–2018) scan databases by binning U27s in AOD (440 nm), Angström exponent (AE, 440–870 nm), and SSA (440, 675, 870, 1020 nm). Using this LUT approach, the uncertainty estimates U27 for each individual V3 Level 2 retrieval can be obtained by interpolation using the corresponding measured and inverted combination of AOD, AE, and SSA.

Aliaksandr Siniuk↗

Sensitivity of buckling loads of anisotropic shells of revolution to geometric imperfections and design changes

Buckling load sensitivity calculations in the shell-of-revolution program FASOR are discussed. This development is based on Koiter's initial postbuckling theory, which has been generalized to include the effect of stiffness changes, as well as geometric imperfections. The implementation in FASOR is valid for anisotropic, as well as orthotropic, shells. Examples are presented for cylindrical panels under axial compression, complete cylindrical shells in torsion, and antisymmetric angle-ply cylindrical panels under edge shear.

Cohen, Gerald A.↗

Cavity Unsteady-Pressure Measurements at Subsonic and Transonic Speeds

An experimental investigation was conducted in the Langley 8-Foot Transonic Pressure Tunnel to determine the flow characteristics of rectangular cavities with varying relative dimensions at subsonic and transonic speeds. Cavities were tested with width-to-depth ratios of 1, 4, 8, and 16 for length-to-depth ratios l/h of 1 through 17.5. The maximum cavity depth was 2.4 in., and the turbulent boundary layer approaching the cavity was approximately 0.5 in. thick. Unsteady- and mean static-pressure measurements were made at free-stream Mach numbers from 0.20 to 0.95 at a unit Reynolds number per foot of approximately 3 x 10(exp 6); however, only unsteady-pressure results are presented in this paper. Results indicate that as l/h increases, cavity flows changed from resonant to nonresonant with resonant amplitudes decreasing gradually. Resonant spectra are obtained largely in cavities with mean static-pressure distributions characteristic of open and transitional flows. Resonance sometimes occurred for closed flow. Increasing cavity width or decreasing cavity depth while holding l/h fixed had the effect of increasing resonant amplitudes and sometimes induced resonance. The effects due to changes in width are more pronounced. Decreasing Mach number has the effect of broadening the resonances.

Tracy, Maureen B.↗

Coupled THM modeling of bentonite heating and hydration in tank tests with a new temperature-dependent water retention model

This study presents a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model for simulating the heating and hydration behavior of bentonite, a buffer material in deep geological repositories (DGRs). The model incorporates a new temperature-dependent soil water retention curve which captures the thermal-induced shift in water retention behavior. It also distinguishes between liquid and gas permeability, modeling intrinsic gas permeability as a function of accessible porosity to improve vapor transport and desaturation predictions. The model was validated against two large-scale tank tests, demonstrating good agreement with measured temperature, relative humidity, and water inflow data. It revealed a complex porosity evolution driven by thermal expansion, vapor movement, vapor condensation, and hydration-induced swelling during heating and hydration processes. The simulation results also suggest that the permeability of the hydration layer plays a critical role in controlling water intake. Clogging of this layer can significantly reduce the volume of water inflow during the hydration phase. Furthermore, while the model effectively captures key THM behavior, further development of the mechanical constitutive law is required to account for possible thermo-elasto-plastic volume changes and microstructural effects. Overall, the model provides a robust tool for evaluating the evolution of bentonite-based barrier material in DGRs.

Guo, Guanlong [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Topological antiferromagnetic semimetal for spintronics: A case study of a layered square-net system EuZnSb 2

Here, we use the first-principles and effective Hamiltonian methods to study the electronic structure and magnetic properties of a recently synthesized layered antiferromagnetic square-net topological semimetal EuZnSb2 [Phys. Rev. Res. 2, 033462 (2020)]. The main message of the paper is that effects of small changes in the band structure produced by the magnetic ordering and changes in the orientation of the Néel vector are amplified in such transport properties as the spin Hall conductivity. We predict that the effects of the broken symmetry introduced by the ordering of the Néel vector, being very weak in the bulk, are pronounced in the surface electronic dispersion, suggesting that surface probes may be more suited to measure them. The coexistence of the magnetism with many other competing phases make this material interesting and possibly useful for quantum spintronics applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Investigating Scientific Data Change with User Research Methods

Scientific datasets are continually expanding and changing due to fluctuations with instruments, quality assessment and quality control processes, and modifications to software pipelines. Datasets include minimal information about these changes or their effects requiring scientists manually assess modifications through a number of labor intensive and ad-hoc steps. The Deduce project is investigating data change to develop metrics, methods, and tools that will help scientists systematically identify and make decisions around data changes. Currently, there is a lack of understanding, and common practices, for identifying and evaluating changes in datasets since systematically measuring and managing data change is under explored in scientific work. We are conducting user research to address this need by exploring scientist's conceptualizations, behaviors, needs, and motivations when dealing with changing datasets. Our user research utilizes multiple methods to produce foundational, generative insights and evaluate research products produced by our team. In this paper, we detail our user research process and outline our findings about data change that emerge from our studies. Our work illustrates how scientific software teams can push beyond just usability testing user interfaces or tools to better probe the underlying ideas they are developing solutions to address.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗

Spin tests of a 1/20-scale model of the XF4U-1 airplane, 12 July 1939

These tests were performed to determine the spinning characteristics of the 1/20-scale model of the XF4U-1 airplane. Effects of loading changes and various control dispositions using both the original and modified vertical tail surfaces were studied. Subsequent tests were made to determine the effects of additional tail modifications.

Donlan, C. J.↗

Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 3: User's Manual for One-Dimensional Numerical Model for the Seasonal Thermocline

A user's manual for a one dimensional thermal model to predict the temperature profiles of a deep body of water for any number of annual cycles is presented. The model is essentially a set of partial differential equations which are solved by finite difference methods using a high speed digital computer. The model features the effects of area change with depth, nonlinear interaction of wind generated turbulence and buoyancy, adsorption of radiative heat flux below the surface, thermal discharges, and the effects of vertical convection caused by discharge. The main assumption in the formulation is horizontal homogeneity. The environmental impact of thermal discharges from power plants is emphasized. Although the model is applicable to most lakes, a specific site (Lake Keowee, S.C.) application is described in detail. The programs are written in FORTRAN 5.

Lee, S. S.↗

Creating Gridded Fire Probability Maps using NASA Data

Fire is a nationally and globally significant process that strongly affects human–dominated and wild landscapes. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our partners at Kettle reinsurance are focused on building a smarter reinsurance model for protecting today’s globalized world from the catastrophic effects of climate change. Our objective is to develop the world's first grid-based wildfire probability product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts, from over a year to a couple months. Working with our partners at Kettle reinsurance, we use multiple satellites and ancillary data to weigh the likelihood of fire, based on a number of sources that verify a fire burning in a grid cell and the level of confidence in the data source. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence than VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) active-fire detection data; and VIIRS active-fire detection data have a higher-level of confidence than MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active-fire detection data. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

Emily Gargulinski↗

Creating IR-verified Gridded Fire Burn Maps using Public NASA and Satellite Data

Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our partners at Kettle reinsurance are focused on building a smarter reinsurance model for protecting today’s globalized world from the catastrophic effects of climate change. Our objective is to develop a high-confidence grid-based wildfire burn product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This product will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts, from over a year to a couple months. Working with our partners at Kettle reinsurance, we use VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) 375 m fire detections and Sentinel-2 10 m satellite imagery to create a 20-m gridded fire burn product. Our process is based on the level of confidence in the data source and takes into account vegetation change throughout the life of the fire. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence when congruent with VIIRS active-fire detection data, rather than VIIRS detections alone. We have also verified our fire burn product against MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator (MASTER) Infrared (IR) data from the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment - Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) 2019 campaign, with 88% overall agreement. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

Emily Gargulinski↗

Applications of ArcticDEM for measuring volcanic dynamics, landslides, retrogressive thaw slumps, snowdrifts, and vegetation heights

Topographical changes are of fundamental interest to a wide range of Arctic science disciplines faced with the need to anticipate, monitor, and respond to the effects of climate change, including geohazard management, glaciology, hydrology, permafrost, and ecology. This study demonstrates several geomorphological, cryospheric, and biophysical applications of ArcticDEM – a large collection of publicly available, time-dependent digital elevation models (DEMs) of the Arctic. Our study illustrates ArcticDEM's applicability across different disciplines and five orders of magnitude of elevation derivatives, including measuring volcanic lava flows, ice cauldrons, post-failure landslides, retrogressive thaw slumps, snowdrifts, and tundra vegetation heights. We quantified surface elevation changes in different geological settings and conditions using the time series of ArcticDEM. Following the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga eruption in Iceland, ArcticDEM analysis mapped the lava flow field, and revealed the post-eruptive ice flows and ice cauldron dynamics. The total dense-rock equivalent (DRE) volume of lava flows is estimated to be (1431 ± 2) million m 3 . Then, we present the aftermath of a landslide in Kinnikinnick, Alaska, yielding a total landslide volume of (400 ± 8) × 103 m 3 and a total area of 0.025 km 2 . ArcticDEM is further proven useful for studying retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). The ArcticDEM-mapped RTS profile is validated by ICESat-2 and drone photogrammetry resulting in a standard deviation of 0.5 m. Volume estimates for lake-side and hillslope RTSs range between 40,000 ± 9000 m 3 and 1,160,000 ± 85,000 m 3 , highlighting applicability across a range of RTS magnitudes. A case study for mapping tundra snow demonstrates ArcticDEM's potential for identifying high-accumulation, late-lying snow areas. The approach proves effective in quantifying relative snow accumulation rather than absolute values (standard deviation of 0.25 m, bias of −0.41 m, and a correlation coefficient of 0.69 with snow depth estimated by unmanned aerial systems photogrammetry). Furthermore, ArcticDEM data show its feasibility for estimating tundra vegetation heights with a standard deviation of 0.3 m (no bias) and a correlation up to 0.8 compared to the light detection and ranging (LiDAR). The demonstrated capabilities of ArcticDEM will pave the way for the broad and pan-Arctic use of this new data source for many disciplines, especially when combined with other imagery products. The wide range of signals embedded in ArcticDEM underscores the potential challenges in deciphering signals in regions affected by various geological processes and environmental influences.

Chunli Dai↗

Ocean liming effect on a North Atlantic microbial community: changes in composition and rates

The ongoing rise in atmospheric CO 2 levels and the consequent global warming make it increasingly difficult to maintain the global temperature within the 1.5 - 2°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, strategies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are being developed, with ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) gaining most attention. Within OAE, ocean liming- the addition of quicklime (CaO) or hydrated lime (Ca(OH) 2 )- can not only remove CO 2 from the atmosphere but potentially counteract the effects of ocean acidification. Although quite attractive, these technologies have yet to be tested regarding ecological safety and efficacy. Here we report the impacts of ocean liming on the abundance, composition and extracellular enzymatic activity (EEA) rates of a North Atlantic planktonic community. The results demonstrate that OAE led to a decreased phytoplankton development, mainly diatoms. The bacterial response to OAE was community-specific, with a consistent increase in the relative abundance of the order Oceanospirillales. OAE also led to increased EEA rates, especially within the bacterial community. These findings suggest that while initial effects on phytoplankton may be limited, the specific impacts on bacterial groups suggest that OAE could influence the remineralization of organic matter. If our results apply to other communities, OAE might initially affect marine microbial dynamics, but further studies are needed to determine if these effects are long-term.

16S↗

Aerosol-Induced Radiative Flux Changes Off the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast: Comparison of Values Calculated from Sunphotometer and In Situ Data with Those Measured by Airborne Pyranometer

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including flux changes) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the responsible aerosol particles. Here we use TARFOX-determined aerosol and surface properties to compute shortwave radiative flux changes for a variety of aerosol situations, with midvisible optical depths ranging from 0.06 to 0.55. We calculate flux changes by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to investigate the sensitivity of results to computational approach. We then compare computed flux changes to those determined from aircraft measurements. Calculations using several approaches yield downward and upward flux changes that agree with measurements. The agreement demonstrates closure (i.e. consistency) among the TARFOX-derived aerosol properties, modeling techniques, and radiative flux measurements. Agreement between calculated and measured downward flux changes is best when the aerosols are modeled as moderately absorbing (midvisible single-scattering albedos between about 0.89 and 0.93), in accord with independent measurements of the TARPOX aerosol. The calculated values for instantaneous daytime upwelling flux changes are in the range +14 to +48 W/sq m for midvisible optical depths between 0.2 and 0.55. These values are about 30 to 100 times the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger flux changes in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce major aerosol radiative forcing events and contribute to any global-average climate effect.

Russell, P. B.↗

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free-air, open-field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer-term sustained warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Light induced ion migration studies in perovskite solar cell using nonlinear impedance spectroscopy

Complex interactions between mobile ions and charge carriers in perovskite solar cells (PSCs) make it challenging to fully understand their dynamic interplay. Exposure to light further complicates these interactions, altering the system’s dynamics and inducing nonlinear effects that lead to changes in the J−V curve. Understanding these effects is crucial for improving the operational stability of PSCs. Impedance spectroscopy (IS) is a powerful technique for evaluating relaxation processes in the frequency domain; however, it is limited in capturing nonlinear contributions. Here, in this work, nonlinear impedance spectroscopy (NLIS) is employed to analyze the higher harmonic response to AC perturbation, both in the dark and after short-term light exposure. A shift in the low-frequency (LF) higher harmonic peak is observed after open-circuit light exposure, attributed to an altered electric field suggesting ion re-distribution, whereas closed-circuit exposure shows no LF shift, indicating minimal ion movement. Additionally, light exposure reduces higher-order admittance, more notably in open-circuit conditions, suggesting decreased recombination. Temperature-dependent analysis was conducted to characterize the activation energy of migrating species, identifying iodide as the dominant migrating ion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗