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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

North American Winter Dipole: Observed and Simulated Changes in Circulations

In recent years, a pair of large-scale circulation patterns consisting of an anomalous ridge over northwestern North America and trough over northeastern North America was found to accompany extreme winter weather events such as the 2013–2015 California drought and eastern U.S. cold outbreaks. Referred to as the North American winter dipole (NAWD), previous studies have found both a marked natural variability and a warming-induced amplification trend in the NAWD. In this study, we utilized multiple global reanalysis datasets and existing climate model simulations to examine the variability of the winter planetary wave patterns over North America and to better understand how it is likely to change in the future. We compared between pre- and post-1980 periods to identify changes to the circulation variations based on empirical analysis. It was found that the leading pattern of the winter planetary waves has changed, from the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode to a spatially shifted mode such as NAWD. Further, the potential influence of global warming on NAWD was examined using multiple climate model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transformative Impacts of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy on Environmental and Biological Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

This manuscript will present an advancement of transformative research that has been conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) over a 25-year period (2000–2025) on a variety of environmental and biological matrices. These investigations derived a fundamental understanding of how elemental detection and analysis of these matrices led to the knowledge and discovery of natural processes in plants and the environment. Each project led to the initiation of a new research area which unearthed awesome and novel breakthroughs. Highlights are listed below: 1. The preliminary research at ORNL centered on the detection of aerosols utilizing Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) technology. The Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) of 1990 highlighted the importance of identifying hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) due to their impact on environmental and human health, thereby underscoring the need to detect various toxic elements. Research in aerosol chemistry aimed to identify these harmful elements released by factories during periods of increased emissions in their manufacturing processes. LIBS emerged as the most effective method for real-time, in situ measurements of metal species in both gaseous and aerosol phases. 2. An understanding of the presence of total carbon in soils gives perspective on how to develop carbon sequestration strategies. The recognition that carbon sinks can evolve back to carbon sources to emit back to the atmosphere was an important consideration. Also, the concentration of carbon in soil indicates the health of land areas for growing crops successfully. 3. The direct detection of most of the elements in a wood sample in a single emission spectrum, without sample preparation, encouraged the research to use the LIBS technique for preservative treated wood coupled with use of multivariate statistical methodology. Additionally, it encouraged the researchers to try to differentiate natural woods from different parts of the country, and it was successfully demonstrated that LIBS coupled with MVA analysis could differentiate wood of different species from each other and of similar species grown in different environments based on their elemental spectra. This was a breakthrough since it revealed a systematic approach to connect elemental scarcity and abundance to either drought or typical rainfall conditions for the hardwood trees grown in specific areas. 4. Furthermore, the research progressed to reveal physiological and developmental processes contributing to biomass production such that the variation in leaf elemental composition increases our understanding of terrestrial nutrient cycles, as well as tracking the transfer of toxic elements from soils to living organisms. 5. Recently another breakthrough viz., ionomics initiated the correlation of elements to specific genes, uncovering the function that the element performed in the plant. More recently, this has been extended from plants to fungi as well as fungi growing in symbiotic relations with plants.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of Novel Genomic Associations and Gene Candidates for Grain Starch Content in Sorghum

Starch accumulated in the endosperm of cereal grains as reserve energy for germination serves as a staple in human and animal nutrition. Unraveling genetic control for starch metabolism is important for breeding grains with high starch content. In this study, we used a sorghum association panel with 389 individuals and 141,557 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to fit linear mixed models (LMM) for identifying genomic regions and potential candidate genes associated with starch content. Three associated genomic regions, one in chromosome (chr) 1 and two novel associations in chr-8, were identified using combination of LMM and Bayesian sparse LMM. All significant SNPs were located within protein coding genes, with SNPs ∼ 52 Mb of chr-8 encoding a Casperian strip membrane protein (CASP)-like protein (Sobic.008G111500) and a heat shock protein (HSP) 90 (Sobic.008G111600) that were highly expressed in reproductive tissues including within the embryo and endosperm. The HSP90 is a potential hub gene with gene network of 75 high-confidence first interactors that is enriched for five biochemical pathways including protein processing. The first interactors of HSP90 also showed high transcript abundance in reproductive tissues. The candidates of this study are likely involved in intricate metabolic pathways and represent candidate gene targets for source-sink activities and drought and heat stress tolerance during grain filling.

genomics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of a Novel Salt Stress-Responsive Pathway Mediated by Arabidopsis DEAD-Box RNA Helicase Gene AtRH17 Using RNA-Seq Analysis

Previously, we reported that overexpression of AtRH17, an Arabidopsis DEAD-box RNA helicase gene, confers salt stress-tolerance via a pathway other than the well-known salt stress-responsive pathways. To decipher the salt stress-responsive pathway in AtRH17-overexpressing transgenic plants (OXs), we performed RNA-Sequencing and identified 397 differentially expressed genes between wild type (WT) and AtRH17 OXs. Among them, 286 genes were upregulated and 111 genes were downregulated in AtRH17 OXs relative to WT. Gene ontology annotation enrichment and KEGG pathway analysis showed that the 397 upregulated and downregulated genes are involved in various biological functions including secretion, signaling, detoxification, metabolic pathways, catabolic pathways, and biosynthesis of secondary metabolites as well as in stress responses. Genevestigator analysis of the upregulated genes showed that nine genes, namely, LEA4-5, GSTF6, DIN2/BGLU30, TSPO, GSTF7, LEA18, HAI1, ABR, and LTI30, were upregulated in Arabidopsis under salt, osmotic, and drought stress conditions. In particular, the expression levels of LEA4-5, TSPO, and ABR were higher in AtRH17 OXs than in WT under salt stress condition. Taken together, our results suggest that a high AtRH17 expression confers salt stress-tolerance through a novel salt stress-responsive pathway involving nine genes, other than the well-known ABA-dependent and ABA-independent pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil Metabolomics Predict Microbial Taxa as Biomarkers of Moisture Status in Soils from a Tidal Wetland

We present observations from a laboratory-controlled study on the impacts of extreme wetting and drying on a wetland soil microbiome. Our approach was to experimentally challenge the soil microbiome to understand impacts on anaerobic carbon cycling processes as the system transitions from dryness to saturation and vice-versa. Specifically, we tested for impacts on stress responses related to shifts from wet to drought conditions. We used a combination of high-resolution data for small organic chemical compounds (metabolites) and biological (community structure based on 16S rRNA gene sequencing) features. Using a robust correlation-independent data approach, we further tested the predictive power of soil metabolites for the presence or absence of taxa. Here, we demonstrate that taking an untargeted, multidimensional data approach to the interpretation of metabolomics has the potential to indicate the causative pathways selecting for the observed bacterial community structure in soils.

16S rRNA gene↗
DOE OSTI2022

Light-Dependence of Formate (C1) and Acetate (C2) Transport and Oxidation in Poplar Trees

Although apparent light inhibition of leaf day respiration is a widespread reported phenomenon, the mechanisms involved, including utilization of alternate respiratory pathways and substrates and light inhibition of TCA cycle enzymes are under active investigation. Recently, acetate fermentation was highlighted as a key drought survival strategy mediated through protein acetylation and jasmonate signaling. Here, we evaluate the light-dependence of acetate transport and assimilation in Populus trichocarpa trees using the dynamic xylem solution injection (DXSI) method developed here for continuous studies of C1 and C2 organic acid transport and light-dependent metabolism. Over 7 days, 1.0 L of [13C]formate and [13C2]acetate solutions were delivered to the stem base of 2-year old potted poplar trees, while continuous diurnal observations were made in the canopy of CO2, H2O, and isoprene gas exchange together with δ13CO2. Stem base injection of 10 mM [13C2]acetate induced an overall pattern of canopy branch headspace 13CO2 enrichment (δ13CO2 +27‰) with a diurnal structure in δ13CO2 reaching a mid-day minimum followed by a maximum shortly after darkening where δ13CO2 values rapidly increased up to +12‰. In contrast, 50 mM injections of [13C]formate were required to reach similar δ13CO2 enrichment levels in the canopy with δ13CO2 following diurnal patterns of transpiration. Illuminated leaves of detached poplar branches pretreated with 10 mM [13C2]acetate showed lower δ13CO2 (+20‰) compared to leaves treated with 10 mM [13C]formate (+320‰), the opposite pattern observed at the whole plant scale. Following dark/light cycles at the leaf-scale, rapid, strong, and reversible enhancements in headspace δ13CO2 by up to +60‰ were observed in [13C2]acetate-treated leaves which showed enhanced dihydrojasmonic acid and TCA cycle intermediate concentrations. The results are consistent with acetate in the transpiration stream as an effective activator of the jasmonate signaling pathway and respiratory substrate. The shorter lifetime of formate relative to acetate in the transpiration stream suggests rapid formate oxidation to CO2 during transport to the canopy. In contrast, acetate is efficiently transported to the canopy where an increased allocation towards mitochondrial dark respiration occurs at night. The results highlight the potential for an effective integration of acetate into glyoxylate and TCA cycles and the light-inhibition of citrate synthase as a potential regulatory mechanism controlling the diurnal allocation of acetate between anabolic and catabolic processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transcriptomic Analysis of the CAM Species Kalanchoë fedtschenkoi Under Low- and High-Temperature Regimes

Temperature stress is one of the major limiting environmental factors that negatively impact global crop yields. Kalanchoë fedtschenkoi is an obligate crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plant species, exhibiting much higher water-use efficiency and tolerance to drought and heat stresses than C 3 or C 4 plant species. Previous studies on gene expression responses to low- or high-temperature stress have been focused on C 3 and C 4 plants. There is a lack of information about the regulation of gene expression by low and high temperatures in CAM plants. To address this knowledge gap, we performed transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) of leaf and root tissues of K. fedtschenkoi under cold (8 °C), normal (25 °C), and heat (37 °C) conditions at dawn (i.e., 2 h before the light period) and dusk (i.e., 2 h before the dark period). Our analysis revealed differentially expressed genes (DEGs) under cold or heat treatment in comparison to normal conditions in leaf or root tissue at each of the two time points. In particular, DEGs exhibiting either the same or opposite direction of expression change (either up-regulated or down-regulated) under cold and heat treatments were identified. In addition, we analyzed gene co-expression modules regulated by cold or heat treatment, and we performed in-depth analyses of expression regulation by temperature stresses for selected gene categories, including CAM-related genes, genes encoding heat shock factors and heat shock proteins, circadian rhythm genes, and stomatal movement genes. Our study highlights both the common and distinct molecular strategies employed by CAM and C 3 /C 4 plants in adapting to extreme temperatures, providing new insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying temperature stress responses in CAM species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Accurate Vegetation and Non-Vegetation Differentiation Approach Based on Land Cover Classification

Accurate vegetation detection is important for many applications, such as crop yield estimation, land cover land use monitoring, urban growth monitoring, drought monitoring, etc. Popular conventional approaches to vegetation detection incorporate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which uses the red and near infrared (NIR) bands, and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), which uses red, NIR, and the blue bands. Although NDVI and EVI are efficient, their accuracies still have room for further improvement. In this paper, we propose a new approach to vegetation detection based on land cover classification. That is, we first perform an accurate classification of 15 or more land cover types. The land covers such as grass, shrub, and trees are then grouped into vegetation and other land cover types such as roads, buildings, etc. are grouped into non-vegetation. Similar to NDVI and EVI, only RGB and NIR bands are needed in our proposed approach. If Laser imaging, Detection, and Ranging (LiDAR) data are available, our approach can also incorporate LiDAR in the detection process. Results using a well-known dataset demonstrated that the proposed approach is feasible and achieves more accurate vegetation detection than both NDVI and EVI. In particular, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach performed 6% better than NDVI and 50% better than EVI in terms of overall accuracy (OA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Salinity Contributions from Geothermal Waters to the Rio Grande and Shallow Aquifer System in the Transboundary Mesilla (United States)/Conejos-Médanos (Mexico) Basin

Freshwater scarcity has raised concerns about the long-term availability of the water supplies within the transboundary Mesilla (United States)/Conejos-Médanos (Mexico) Basin in Texas, New Mexico, and Chihuahua. Analysis of legacy temperature data and groundwater flux estimates indicates that the region’s known geothermal systems may contribute more than 45,000 tons of dissolved solids per year to the shallow aquifer system, with around 8500 tons of dissolved solids being delivered from localized groundwater upflow zones within those geothermal systems. If this salinity flux is steady and eventually flows into the Rio Grande, it could account for 22% of the typical average annual cumulative Rio Grande salinity that leaves the basin each year—this salinity proportion could be much greater in times of low streamflow. Regional water level mapping indicates upwelling brackish waters flow towards the Rio Grande and the southern part of the Mesilla portion of the basin with some water intercepted by wells in Las Cruces and northern Chihuahua. Upwelling waters ascend from depths greater than 1 km with focused flow along fault zones, uplifted bedrock, and/or fractured igneous intrusions. Overall, this work demonstrates the utility of using heat as a groundwater tracer to identify salinity sources and further informs stakeholders on the presence of several brackish upflow zones that could notably degrade the quality of international water supplies in this developed drought-stricken region.

Pepin, Jeff D. (ORCID:0000000274109979)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the City-Scale Impacts of Impervious Surfaces on Groundwater Recharge Potential: An Urban Application of WRF–Hydro

Decades of urbanization have created sprawling, complex, and vulnerable cities, half of which are located in water-scarce areas. With the looming effects of climate change, including increasing droughts and water shortages, there is an urgent need to better understand how urbanization impacts the water cycle at city scale. Impervious surfaces disrupt the natural flow of water, affecting groundwater recharge in water-scarce cities, such as Los Angeles, looking to harness local water resources. In the face of growing water demand, informing on opportunities to maximize potential groundwater recharge can help increase cities’ resilience. WRF–Hydro, a physics-based hydrological modeling system, capable of resolving atmospheric, land surface, and hydrological processes at city scale, is adapted to represent urban impervious surfaces. The modified model is used to assess the hydrological implications of historical urbanization. Pre- and post-urban scenarios are used to quantify the impacts of impervious surfaces on the local water budget. Our results show that urbanization in LA has vastly decreased the potential for groundwater recharge, with up to half of the water inflow being redirected from infiltration in highly urbanized watersheds, while doubling surface runoff’s share of the city’s water budget, from ~15% to 30%. This study not only sheds light on the role of imperviousness on groundwater recharge in water-scarce cities, but also offers a robust and transferable tool for the management of urban land and water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isolation of Histone from Sorghum Leaf Tissue for Top Down Mass Spectrometry Profiling of Potential Epigenetic Markers

Histones belong to a family of highly conserved proteins in eukaryotes. They pack DNA into nucleosomes as functional units of chromatin. Post-translational modifications (PTMs) of histones, which are highly dynamic and can be added or removed by enzymes, play critical roles in regulating gene expression. In plants, epigenetic factors including histone PTMs are related to their adaptive responses to the environment. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of epigenetic control can bring unprecedented opportunities for engineering solutions to increase the resilience of crops to climate change. Herein, we describe a protocol to isolate the nuclei and purify histones from sorghum leaf tissue. The extracted histones can be analyzed as their intact forms by top-down mass spectrometry (MS) coupled to online reversed-phase (RP) liquid chromatography (LC). Combinations and stoichiometry of multiple PTMs on the same histone proteoform can be readily identified. In addition, histone tail clipping can be detected using the top-down LC-MS workflow thus yielding the global PTM profile of core histones (H4, H2A, H2B, H3). By comparing the PTM profile among samples corresponding to different conditions (e.g. drought vs. control), potential epigenetic marks can be discovered as targets for further characterization using approaches such as chromatin immunoprecipitation – sequencing (ChIP-seq).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data from: High temperatures and low soil moisture synergistically reduce switchgrass yields from marginal field sites and inhibit fermentation

‘Marginal lands’ are low productivity sites abandoned from agriculture for reasons such as low or high soil water content, challenging topography, or nutrient deficiency. To avoid competition with crop production, cellulosic bio- energy crops have been proposed for cultivation on marginal lands, however on these sites they may be more strongly affected by environmental stresses such as low soil water content. In this study we used rainout shelters to in- duce low soil moisture on marginal lands and determine the effect of soil water stress on switchgrass growth and the subsequent production of bioetha- nol. Five marginal land sites that span a latitudinal gradient in Michigan and Wisconsin were planted to switchgrass in 2013 and during the 2018–2021 growing seasons were exposed to reduced precipitation under rainout shelters in comparison to ambient precipitation. The effect of reduced precipitation was related to the environmental conditions at each site and biofuel produc- tion metrics (switchgrass biomass yields and composition and ethanol pro- duction). During the first year (2018), the rainout shelters were designed with 60% rain exclusion, which did not affect biomass yields compared to ambient conditions at any of the field sites, but decreased switchgrass fermentability at the Wisconsin Central–Hancock site. In subsequent years, the shelters were redesigned to fully exclude rainfall, which led to reduced biomass yields and inhibited fermentation for three sites. When switchgrass was grown in soils with large reductions in moisture and increases in temperature, the potential for biofuel production was significantly reduced, exposing some of the chal- lenges associated with producing biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass grown under drought conditions.

bioethanol↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dry and warm conditions in Australia exacerbated by aerosol reduction in China

A substantial decline in anthropogenic aerosols in China has been observed since the initiation of clean air actions in 2013. This study reveals a linkage between aerosol reductions in China and drier and warmer conditions in Australia. Aerosol decline in China trigger alterations in temperature and pressure gradients between the two hemispheres, leading to intensified outflow from Asia towards the South Indian Ocean, strengthening the Southern Indian Subtropical High and its related Southern Trade Winds. Consequently, this atmospheric pattern results in a moisture divergence over Australia. The reduction in surface moisture further results in more surface energy being converted into sensible heat instead of evaporating as latent heat, warming the near-surface air. The intensified dry and warm climate conditions further cause the increase in wildfire risks during fire seasons in Australia. Our study illuminates the potential impact of distant aerosols on precipitation and temperature variations in Australia, offering valuable insights for drought and wildfire risk mitigation in Australia.

aerosol-cloud interaction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗