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NASA NTRS2024

Jefferson County Ecological Conservation: Quantifying the Effects of Hydrologic Restoration in the Camas National Wildlife Refuge and Mud Lake Wildlife Management Area

Wetlands in the Camas National Wildlife Refuge and Mud Lake Wildlife Management Area, a rare landscape feature in the Intermountain West, are crucial for migratory birds along the Pacific Flyway, yet these wetlands have experienced a noticeable decline in extent and inundation over the last 40+ years. Partners at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Idaho Department of Fish and Game have ongoing restoration efforts that are yet to be quantified. To assist these partners, we used NASA Earth observations to quantify change in wetland extent and determine if the restoration projects met the intended impact. The QA_PIXEL band from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) was used to identify water. Landsat 8 OLI imagery was also used for classifying landcover in ArcGIS Pro for 2016 and 2020 and to forecast landcover in 2060 using TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler. We also compared lidar data from 2011 and 2019 to detect changes in vegetation height, ground elevation, and surface water levels, and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) imagery to detect changes in vegetation health. Classification results indicated overall accuracies over 84% and Kappa indices above 0.80, well surpassing random classification performance. From 2016 to 2020 our classifications showed an 825 acre increase in wetland extent, and our forecasted 2060 model showed a 2795 acre decrease. Combining our partners’ knowledge of the area with our analyses, we created a remote sensing workflow to enhance future monitoring and decision-making. This study demonstrated the feasibility of NASA Earth observations in quantifying wetlands, informing restoration projects, and supporting avian conservation.

Cassidy Bromka↗

NASA NTRS2024

Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) Project

BACKGROUND: Future Human Exploration missions introduce a new paradigm as crews move further from the resupply and near real-time ground support typical of Low Earth Orbit missions today. Without immediate support from ground-based personnel, exploration crews will be more reliant on inflight data and technology to respond to emergencies and anomalies. A data architecture to support a new generation of technologies, employing advanced analytical and predictive modeling techniques, is needed to enable crew autonomy. OVERVIEW: The Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) project funded by NASA’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) is laying a foundation for future in-flight informatics by providing a back-end architecture for collecting, storing, and integrating multiple sources of data generated by and around the crew. CHP-IDA provides a platform for common data models and Application Programming Interfaces to access, integrate, process, and display CHP data (e.g., environmental, exercise, medical, sleep, performance, etc.). This will facilitate the increased situation awareness and decision support required by the crew and remote support of exploration missions. This presentation will describe the currently ongoing effort to develop and evaluate a path-to-flight concept of the CHP-IDA software and its core capabilities. Current integrations will be discussed, including analytics for Extravehicular Activity metabolic rate and data ingestion from a multi-functional integrated medical device. The presentation will also provide examples of scenarios used to demonstrate the CHP-IDA through human-in-the-loop test bed activities as well as examples of appropriate system performance metrics. DISCUSSION: Today, in-flight data is often siloed, unsynchronized, and largely inaccessible in real time. Many data sets require manual entry and/or data transfer between vehicles and the ground. These issues contribute to risks in supporting exploration medical capabilities. The CHP-IDA is a back-end data system providing core capabilities needed for timely and meaningful data insights across CHP domains to crew and remote personnel to enable increased crew autonomy. Future work includes collaboration with additional CHP domains, new technology integrations, and further demonstrations of the IDA within different vehicle and communication latency contexts. LEARNING OBJECTIVES 1. The audience will understand that the CHP-IDA is a back-end system, providing a platform to facilitate access, promote decision tools, and provide meaningful insights to crew and to remote stakeholders during exploration missions. 2. The audience will gain insight into human-centered research and activities used to discover CHP domain data needs and pain points and how this information is used to guide development of the IDA.

Exploration↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of Preliminary PRA to Inform Decisions During Initial NASA Gateway Development

How do you use Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to support a program in development before designs are even known? Traditional PRAs require detailed design information and early in a program life cycle such information is not available. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) developed a preliminary PRA for the Gateway Program based upon NASA reference designs utilizing data and models from pervious PRA studies as surrogates for the Gateway systems. Gateway will be a lunar outpost that supports missions to the moon and includes several elements/modules developed by NASA and International Partners. NASA SMA began supporting Gateway in fall 2017 during initial formulation and continues to support the Gateway Program today. This paper will explore how the NASA SMA developed preliminary PRA was used to inform Gateway Program decisions with specific examples provided.

PRA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of Preliminary PRA to Inform Decisions During Initial NASA Gateway Development

How do you use Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to support a program in development before designs are even known? Traditional PRAs require detailed design information and early in a program life cycle such information is not available. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) developed a preliminary PRA for the Gateway Program based upon NASA reference designs utilizing data and models from previous PRA studies as surrogates for the Gateway systems. Gateway will be a lunar outpost that supports missions to the moon and includes several elements/modules developed by NASA and International Partners. NASA SMA began supporting Gateway in fall 2017 during initial formulation and continues to support the Gateway Program today. This paper will explore how the NASA SMA developed preliminary PRA was used to inform Gateway Program decisions with specific examples provided.

PRA↗

NASA NTRS2012

Colonel Blotto Games and Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using Colonel Blotto games. Colonel Blotto games, which are one of the oldest applications of game theory to the military domain, look at the allocation of troops and resources when fighting across multiple areas of operation. This paper demonstrates that employing Lanchester equations within a game overcomes some of practical problems faced when applying game theory.

Collins, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Twelfth Annual Conference on Manual Control

Main topics discussed cover multi-task decision making, attention allocation and workload measurement, displays and controls, nonvisual displays, tracking and other psychomotor tasks, automobile driving, handling qualities and pilot ratings, remote manipulation, system identification, control models, and motion and visual cues. Sixty-five papers are included with presentations on results of analytical studies to develop and evaluate human operator models for a range of control task, vehicle dynamics and display situations; results of tests of physiological control systems and applications to medical problems; and on results of simulator and flight tests to determine display, control and dynamics effects on operator performance and workload for aircraft, automobile, and remote control systems.

Wempe, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A knowledge-based approach to identification and adaptation in dynamical systems control

Artificial intelligence techniques are applied to the problems of model form and parameter identification of large-scale dynamic systems. The object-oriented knowledge representation is discussed in the context of causal modeling and qualitative reasoning. Structured sets of rules are used for implementing qualitative component simulations, for catching qualitative discrepancies and quantitative bound violations, and for making reconfiguration and control decisions that affect the physical system. These decisions are executed by backward-chaining through a knowledge base of control action tasks. This approach was implemented for two examples: a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer and a two-phase thermal testbed. Results of tests with both of these systems demonstrate that the software replicates some or most of the functionality of a human operator, thereby reducing the need for a human-in-the-loop in the lower levels of control of these complex systems.

Glass, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Techniques for optimal crop selection in a controlled ecological life support system

A Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) utilizes a plant's natural ability to regenerate air and water while being grown as a food source in a closed life support system. Current plant research is directed toward obtaining quantitative empirical data on the regenerative ability of each species of plant and the system volume and power requirements. Two techniques were adapted to optimize crop species selection while at the same time minimizing the system volume and power requirements. Each allows the level of life support supplied by the plants to be selected, as well as other system parameters. The first technique uses decision analysis in the form of a spreadsheet. The second method, which is used as a comparison with and validation of the first, utilizes standard design optimization techniques. Simple models of plant processes are used in the development of these methods.

Mccormack, Ann↗

NASA NTRS1993

Techniques for optimal crop selection in a controlled ecological life support system

Mccormack, Ann↗

NASA NTRS2002

Technology Assessments within NASA's Integrated Technology Assessment Center

NASA's Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) founded the Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) to provide a comprehensive, systematic approach to identify long-term technology needs, to quantify payoffs for technology investments, and to assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics/Earth-to-orbit area. To accomplish these goals, the ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. In the ITAC approach, concepts for transportation systems are first selected based on relevance to the ASTP. Models of these concepts are then developed and data on advanced technologies are collected. Projections of key technology characteristics with respect to the specific concepts of interest are made. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework. The probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP and a multivariate decision making process is used to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. At present, the ITAC program is working to evaluate a variety of technologies for three two-stage hypersonic vehicle concepts. Concepts include an all rocket, vertical take off-horizontal landing (VTHL) system, a horizontal take-off-horizontal landing (HTHL) RBCC-propelled first stage/all rocket second stage system, and an HTHL turbine-based first stage/all rocket second stage system. This paper will provide a status update of the ITAC program including current results and plans.

Taylor, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Technology Assessments within NASA's Integrated Technology Assessment Center

NASA's Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) founded the Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) to provide a comprehensive, systematic approach to identify long-term technology needs, to quantify payoffs for technology investments, and to assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics/Earth-to-orbit area. To accomplish these goals, the ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. In the ITAC approach, concepts for transportation systems are first selected based on relevance to the ASTP. Models of these concepts are then developed and data on advanced technologies are collected. Projections of key technology characteristics with respect to the specific concepts of interest are made. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework. The probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP and a multivariate decision making process is used to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. At present, the ITAC program is working to evaluate a variety of technologies for three two-stage hypersonic vehicle concepts. Concepts include an all rocket, vertical take off-horizontal landing (VTHL) system, a horizontal takeoff-horizontal landing (HTHL) RBCC-propelled first stage/all rocket second stage system, and an HTHL turbine-based first stage/all rocket second stage system. This paper will provide a status update of the ITAC program including current results and plans.

Taylor, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Applying a Crew Accommodations Resource Model to Future Space Vehicle Research

The success of research and development for human space flight depends heavily on modeling. In addition, the use of such models is especially critical at the earliest phase of research and development of any manned vehicle or habitat. NASA is currently studying various innovative and futuristic propulsion technologies to enable further exploration of space by untended as well as tended vehicles. Details such as vehicle mass, volume, shape and configuration are required variables to evaluate the success of the propulsion concepts. For tended vehicles, the impact of the crew's requirements on those parameters must be included. This is especially important on long duration missions where the crew requirements become more complex. To address these issues, a crew accommodations resource model, developed as a mission planning tool for human spaceflight (Stillwell, Boutros, & Connolly), was applied to a reference mission in order to estimate the volume and mass required to sustain a crew for a variety of long duration missions. The model, which compiled information from numerous different sources and contains various attributes which can be modified to enable comparisons across different dimensions, was instrumental in deriving volume and mass required for a tended long duration space flight. With the inclusion of some additional variables, a set of volume and mass requirements were provided to the project. If due consideration to crew requirements for volume and mass had not been entertained, the assumptions behind validation of the propulsion technology could have been found to be incorrect, possibly far into development of the technology or even into the design and build of test vehicles. The availability and use of such a model contributes significantly by increasing the accuracy of human space flight research and development activities and acts as a cost saving measure by preventing inaccurate assumptions from driving design decisions.

Blume, Jennifer Linda↗

NASA NTRS2004

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

Vitali, Roberto↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Real Time Mission Monitor: A Situational Awareness Tool For Managing Experiment Assets

The NASA Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a situational awareness tool that integrates satellite, airborne and surface data sets; weather information; model and forecast outputs; and vehicle state data (e.g., aircraft navigation, satellite tracks and instrument field-of-views) for field experiment management RTMM optimizes science and logistic decision-making during field experiments by presenting timely data and graphics to the users to improve real time situational awareness of the experiment's assets. The RTMM is proven in the field as it supported program managers, scientists, and aircraft personnel during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses experiment during summer 2006 in Cape Verde, Africa. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible through data acquisition systems, network communication links and network server resources built and managed by collaborators at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). RTMM is evolving towards a more flexible and dynamic combination of sensor ingest, network computing, and decision-making activities through the use of a service oriented architecture based on community standards and protocols.

Blakeslee, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA'S Water Resources Element Within the Applied Sciences Program

The NASA Applied Sciences Program works within NASA Earth sciences to leverage investment of satellite and information systems to increase the benefits to society through the widest practical use of NASA research results. Such observations provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of numerous water resources management activities. The primary goal of the Earth Science Applied Science Program is to improve future and current operational systems by infusing them with scientific knowledge of the Earth system gained through space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities. Water resources is one of eight elements in the Applied Sciences Program and it addresses concerns and decision making related to water quantity and water quality. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands requires using existing resources more efficiently. The potential crises and conflicts arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. but also in many parts of the world. In addition to water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products to address these critical issues.

Toll, David↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shape Memory Alloy Actuator Design: CASMART Collaborative Best Practices

Upon examination of shape memory alloy (SMA) actuation designs, there are many considerations and methodologies that are common to them all. A goal of CASMART's design working group is to compile the collective experiences of CASMART's member organizations into a single medium that engineers can then use to make the best decisions regarding SMA system design. In this paper, a review of recent work toward this goal is presented, spanning a wide range of design aspects including evaluation, properties, testing, modeling, alloy selection, fabrication, actuator processing, design optimization, controls, and system integration. We have documented each aspect, based on our collective experiences, so that the design engineer may access the tools and information needed to successfully design and develop SMA systems. Through comparison of several case studies, it is shown that there is not an obvious single, linear route a designer can adopt to navigate the path of concept to product. SMA engineering aspects will have different priorities and emphasis for different applications.

Benafan, Othmane↗

NASA NTRS2014

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

sea level↗