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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A multi-level anomaly detection algorithm for time-varying graph data with interactive visualization

This work presents a novel modeling and analysis framework for graph sequences which addresses the challenge of detecting and contextualizing anomalies in labelled, streaming graph data. We introduce a generalization of the BTER model of Seshadhri et al. by adding flexibility to community structure, and use this model to perform multi-scale graph anomaly detection. Specifically, probability models describing coarse subgraphs are built by aggregating node probabilities, and these related hierarchical models simultaneously detect deviations from expectation. This technique provides insight into a graph's structure and internal context that may shed light on a detected event. Additionally, this multi-scale analysis facilitates intuitive visualizations by allowing users to narrow focus from an anomalous graph to particular subgraphs or nodes causing the anomaly. For evaluation, two hierarchical anomaly detectors are tested against a baseline Gaussian method on a series of sampled graphs. We demonstrate that our graph statistics-based approach outperforms both a distribution-based detector and the baseline in a labeled setting with community structure, and it accurately detects anomalies in synthetic and real-world datasets at the node, subgraph, and graph levels. Furthermore, to illustrate the accessibility of information made possible via this technique, the anomaly detector and an associated interactive visualization tool are tested on NCAA football data, where teams and conferences that moved within the league are identified with perfect recall, and precision greater than 0.786.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Load Control Using Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty and the Risk-Adjustable Variants

Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we use the right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty to derive a more compact MILP reformulation than the commonly known MILP reformulations with big-M constants. All the results also apply to general individual chance constraints with RHS uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an adjustable chance-constrained variant to achieve tradeoff between the operational risk and costs. We derive MILP reformulations under the Wasserstein ambiguity set and second-order conic programming (SOCP) reformulations under the moment-based set. Using real-world data, we conduct computational studies to demonstrate the efficiency of the solution approaches and the effectiveness of the solutions. Summary of Contribution: The problem studied in this paper is motivated by a building load control problem that uses the aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads as flexible reserves to absorb uncertain solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. The problem is formulated as distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) programs with right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty. In addition, we propose a risk-adjustable variant of the DRCC programs, where the risk level, instead of being predetermined, is treated as a decision variable. The paper aims to provide tractable reformulations and solution algorithms for both the (general) DRCC and the (general) adjustable DRCC models with RHS uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?

Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
DOE OSTI2015

Multi-Level Anomaly Detection on Time-Varying Graph Data

This work presents a novel modeling and analysis framework for graph sequences which addresses the challenge of detecting and contextualizing anomalies in labelled, streaming graph data. We introduce a generalization of the BTER model of Seshadhri et al. by adding flexibility to community structure, and use this model to perform multi-scale graph anomaly detection. Specifically, probability models describing coarse subgraphs are built by aggregating probabilities at finer levels, and these closely related hierarchical models simultaneously detect deviations from expectation. This technique provides insight into a graph's structure and internal context that may shed light on a detected event. Additionally, this multi-scale analysis facilitates intuitive visualizations by allowing users to narrow focus from an anomalous graph to particular subgraphs or nodes causing the anomaly. For evaluation, two hierarchical anomaly detectors are tested against a baseline Gaussian method on a series of sampled graphs. We demonstrate that our graph statistics-based approach outperforms both a distribution-based detector and the baseline in a labeled setting with community structure, and it accurately detects anomalies in synthetic and real-world datasets at the node, subgraph, and graph levels. To illustrate the accessibility of information made possible via this technique, the anomaly detector and an associated interactive visualization tool are tested on NCAA football data, where teams and conferences that moved within the league are identified with perfect recall, and precision greater than 0.786.

anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2013

Automated Cache Performance Analysis And Optimization

While there is no lack of performance counter tools for coarse-grained measurement of cache activity, there is a critical lack of tools for relating data layout to cache behavior to application performance. Generally, any nontrivial optimizations are either not done at all, or are done ”by hand” requiring significant time and expertise. To the best of our knowledge no tool available to users measures the latency of memory reference instructions for particular addresses and makes this information available to users in an easy-to-use and intuitive way. In this project, we worked to enable the Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool to gather memory reference latency information for specific instructions and memory addresses, and to gather and display this information in an easy-to-use and intuitive way to aid performance analysts in identifying problematic data structures in their codes. This tool was primarily designed for use in the supercomputer domain as well as grid, cluster, cloud-based parallel e-commerce, and engineering systems and middleware. Ultimately, we envision a tool to automate optimization of application cache layout and utilization in the Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool. To commercialize this software, we worked to develop core capabilities for gathering enhanced memory usage performance data from applications and create and apply novel methods for automatic data structure layout optimizations, tailoring the overall approach to support existing supercomputer and cluster programming models and constraints. In this Phase I project, we focused on infrastructure necessary to gather performance data and present it in an intuitive way to users. With the advent of enhanced Precise Event-Based Sampling (PEBS) counters on recent Intel processor architectures and equivalent technology on AMD processors, we are now in a position to access memory reference information for particular addresses. Prior to the introduction of PEBS counters, cache behavior could only be measured reliably in the aggregate across tens or hundreds of thousands of instructions. With the newest iteration of PEBS technology, cache events can be tied to a tuple of instruction pointer, target address (for both loads and stores), memory hierarchy, and observed latency. With this information we can now begin asking questions regarding the efficiency of not only regions of code, but how these regions interact with particular data structures and how these interactions evolve over time. In the short term, this information will be vital for performance analysts understanding and optimizing the behavior of their codes for the memory hierarchy. In the future, we can begin to ask how data layouts might be changed to improve performance and, for a particular application, what the theoretical optimal performance might be. The overall benefit to be produced by this effort was a commercial quality easy-to- use and scalable performance tool that will allow both beginner and experienced parallel programmers to automatically tune their applications for optimal cache usage. Effective use of such a tool can literally save weeks of performance tuning effort. Easy to use. With the proposed innovations, finding and fixing memory performance issues would be more automated and hide most to all of the performance engineer expertise ”under the hood” of the Open|SpeedShop performance tool. One of the biggest public benefits from the proposed innovations is that it makes performance analysis more usable to a larger group of application developers. Intuitive reporting of results. The Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool has a rich set of intuitive, yet detailed reports for presenting performance results to application developers. Our goal was to leverage this existing technology to present the results from our memory performance addition to Open|SpeedShop. Suitable for experts as well as novices. Application performance is getting more difficult to measure as the hardware platforms they run on become more complicated. This makes life difficult for the application developer, in that they need to know more about the hardware platform, including the memory system hierarchy, in order to understand the performance of their application. Some application developers are comfortable in that sceario, while others want to do their scientific research and not have to understand all the nuances in the hardware platform they are running their application on. Our proposed innovations were aimed to support both experts and novice performance analysts. Useful in many markets. The enhancement to Open|SpeedShop would appeal to a broader market space, as it will be useful in scientific, commercial, and cloud computing environments. Our goal was to use technology developed initially at the and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory combined with the development and commercial software experience of the Argo Navis Technologies, LLC (ANT) to form a powerful combination to delivery these objectives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2019

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region’s large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

Bryant D Loomis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stability, Composition, and Core-Shell Particle Structure of Uranium(IV)-Silicate Colloids

Uranium is typically the most abundant radionuclide by mass in radioactive wastes and is a significant component of effluent streams at nuclear facilities. Actinide(IV) (An(IV)) colloids formed via various pathways, including corrosion of spent nuclear fuel, have the potential to greatly enhance the mobility of poorly soluble An(IV) forms, including uranium. This is particularly important in conditions relevant to decommissioning of nuclear facilities and the geological disposal of radioactive waste. Previous studies have suggested that silicate could stabilize U(IV) colloids. Here the formation, composition, and structure of U(IV)-silicate colloids under the alkaline conditions relevant to spent nuclear fuel storage and disposal were investigated using a range of state of the art techniques. The colloids are formed across a range of pH conditions (9-10.5) and silicate concentrations (2-4 mM) and have a primary particle size 1-10 nm, also forming suspended aggregates <220 nm. X-ray absorption spectroscopy, ultrafiltration, and scanning transmission electron microscopy confirm the particles are U(IV)-silicates. Additional evidence from X-ray diffraction and pair distribution function data suggests the primary particles are composed of a UO2-rich core and a U-silicate shell. U(IV)-silicate colloids formation correlates with the formation of U(OH)3(H3SiO4)3 2- complexes in solution indicating they are likely particle precursors. Finally, these colloids form under a range of conditions relevant to nuclear fuel storage and geological disposal of radioactive waste and represent a potential pathway for U mobility in these systems.

Neill, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The structural fate of lipid nanoparticles in the extracellular matrix

Drug-loaded liposomes are the most successful nanomedicine to date, with multiple FDA-approved systems for a myriad of diseases. While liposome circulation time in blood and retention in tissues have been studied in detail, the structural fate of liposomes—and nanoparticles in general—in the body has not been extensively investigated. In this work, we explore the interactions of liposomes with synthetic and natural hydrogel materials to understand how the natural extracellular matrix influences liposome structural characteristics. Small angle X-ray scattering, confocal microscopy, and cryogenic transmission electron microscopy data demonstrate that poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG), gelatin, alginate, and Matrigel ® hydrogels cause 200 nm liposomes of 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DOPC) to transform into micrometer-sized aggregates. These aggregates are composed of multilamellar vesicles around 100 nm in diameter with a mean interlamellar separation of 5.5 nm. Protecting the liposomes with a corona of PEG damps this restructuring effect, making the multilamellar vesicles less stable. We attribute this unilamellar to multilamellar transition to an osmotic driving force from the hydrogel environment. This lipid restructuring has broad ramifications in the design and use of nanomedicines, and in understanding the fate and function of natural lipid-based materials within the tissue microenvironment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Classification of Methane Emissions from Industrial Meters, Vintage vs Modern Plastic Pipe, and Plastic-lined Steel and Cast-Iron Pipe (Final Report)

The project focus was to improve the characterization of methane (CH 4 ) emissions currently detailed in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) for categories of assets within the Natural Gas (NG) distribution system to isolate what is driving inflation or deflation behind current, nationwide, aggregated Emission Factors (EFs). These specific categories included industrial/commercial NG customer meters, modern and vintage plastic pipe, along with plastic-lined steel and cast-iron pipe. CH 4 emission rate data was gathered during 25 sampling campaigns at industrial/commercial meter sites, vintage and modern plastic pipe sites, as well as plastic-lined steel and cast-iron sites located within NG distribution networks.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Institutional Framework of Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting in India

The share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in India is growing rapidly, with a national goal of reaching 50% capacity from non-fossil fuel generation by 2030. One implication of this growth is the need for improved VRE forecasting methods. For this reason, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in India commissioned this study with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in the United States, and the National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE) in India. The objective of this study was to review the existing institutional framework and suggest changes needed to support the plans for large-scale VRE integration in the country. To achieve that objective, the authors consulted local stakeholders about the status of VRE forecasting in India, reviewed existing studies, and examined VRE forecasting methods around the world to identify best practices. Based on those best practices, the study presents six potential approaches to improve the VRE forecasting framework in India. Approaches include incentivizing VRE forecast improvement and use of the most accurate VRE forecast, creating an institution that will optimize VRE forecasts while maintaining and ensuring access to necessary data for forecasting, implementing a review and certification process for VRE forecast providers, forecasting closer to dispatch time and allowing for more frequent forecast revisions, increasing the frequency of weather forecasts, and aggregating VRE forecasts at the point of interconnection.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Immunofluorescent Detection of DNA Double Strand Breaks induced by High-LET Radiation

Within cell nuclei, traversing charged heavy ion particles lead to the accumulation of proteins related to DNA lesions and repair along the ion trajectories. Irradiation using a standard geometric setup with the beam path perpendicular to the cell monolayer generates discrete foci of several proteins known to localize at sites of DNA double strand breaks (DSBs). One such molecule is the histone protein H2AX (gamma-H2AX), which gets rapidly phosphorylated in response to ionizing radiation. Here we present data obtained with a modified irradiation geometry characterized by a beam path parallel to a monolayer of human fibroblast cells. This new irradiation geometry leads to the formation of gamma-H2AX aggregates in the shape of streaks stretching over several micrometers in the x/y plane, thus enabling the analysis of the fluorescence distributions along the particle trajectories. Qualitative analysis of these distributions presented insights into the DNA repair kinetics along the primary track structure and visualization of possible chromatin movement. We also present evidence of colocalization of gamma-H2AX with several other proteins in responses to ionizing radiation exposure. Analysis of gamma-H2AX has the potential to provide useful information on human cell responses to high LET radiation after exposure to space-like radiation.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Investigation of metal ion extraction and aggregate formation combining acidic and neutral organophosphorous reagents

In the present study, we investigate how varying mixtures of tri-n-butyl phosphate (TBP) and dibutyl phosphate (HDBP) results in enhanced extraction of lanthanum(III), La{sup 3+}, and dysprosium(III), Dy{sup 3+}. Water and metal ion extraction were carefully monitored as a function of TBP:HDBP mole ratio.In addition to these techniques, EXAFS was used to determine the coordination environment of the metal ion in this system. To produce the necessary signal, a concentration of 1.25*10{sup -3} M La{sup 3+} and Dy{sup 3+} was used. Although previous studies of synergistic extraction of metal cations using combinations of neutral and acidic reagents explain the enhanced extraction by increased dehydration of the metal ion and the formation of mixed extractant complexes, our evidence for the increased water extraction coupled with the aggregate formation suggests a reverse micellar aspect to synergism in the system containing TBP and HDBP. It is quite possible that both of these phenomena contribute to our system behavior. The EXAFS data shows that, based on coordination numbers alone, several possible structures may exist. From this study, we cannot provide a definitive answer as to the nature of extraction in this system or the exact complex formed during extraction.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Considerations and code for partial volume correcting [ 18 F]-AV-1451 tau PET data

[ 18 F]-AV-1451 is a leading tracer used with positron emission tomography (PET) to quantify tau pathology. However, [ 18 F]-AV-1451 shows “off target” or non-specific binding, which we define as binding of the tracer in unexpected areas unlikely to harbor aggregated tau based on autopsy literature. Along with caudate, putamen, pallidum and thalamus nonspecific binding, we have found binding in the superior portion of the cerebellar gray matter, leading us to use inferior cerebellar gray as the reference region. We also addressed binding in the posterior portion of the choroid plexus. PET signal unlikely to be associated with tau also occurs in skull, meninges and soft tissue. We refer to [ 18 F]- AV-1451 binding in the skull and meninges as extra-cortical hotspots (ECH) and find them near lateral and medial orbitofrontal, lateral occipital, inferior and middle temporal, superior and inferior parietal, and inferior cerebellar gray matter. Lastly, the choroid plexus also shows nonspecific binding that bleeds into hippocampus. We are providing the code (http://www.runmycode.org/companion/view/2798) used to create different regions of interest (ROIs) that we then used to perform Partial Volume Correction (PVC) using the Rousset geometric transfer matrix method. This method was used in the companion article, “Comparison of multiple tau-PET measures as biomarkers in aging and Alzheimer's Disease” (DOI 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2017.05.058).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short-term apartment-level load forecasting using a modified neural network with selected auto-regressive features

Residential electricity load profiles and their diversity have become increasingly important to realize the benefits of Smart or Transactive Energy Networks (TENs). An important element of TENs will be practical, accurate, and implementable residential load forecasting techniques. While there have been many approaches to short-term load forecasting, few have included forecasting for individual households, partly because the high volatility and idiosyncrasies present in individual household load data can pose significant challenges. In this study, we develop a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory-based neural network with Selected Autoregressive Features (termed a CLSAF model) to improve short-term household electricity load forecasting accuracy by employing three strategies: autoregressive features selection, exogenous features selection, and a “default” state to avoid overfitting at times of high load volatility. We include aggregations of apartments to floor and building level, because utilities may favor transactive approaches that rely on aggregator models, e.g., a cluster of consumers as opposed to an individual. We demonstrate that the CLSAF model, by virtue of its enhanced feature representation and modest computational resources, can accomplish load forecasting in a multi-family residential building across three spatial granularities (individual apartment/household, floor, and building levels), with an accuracy improvement of up to 25% compared to a persistence model. We propose a data screening technique to characterize time-series electricity-load data. This technique is suitable for integration into a TEN ecosystem and allows one to estimate confidence levels of the load forecasts to optimize computational resources and the risks associated with uncertain forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗