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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Improving deep learning performance for predicting large-scale geological ${{CO}_{2}}$ sequestration modeling through feature coarsening

Physics-based reservoir simulation for fluid flow in porous media is a numerical simulation method to predict the temporal-spatial patterns of state variables (e.g. pressure p) in porous media, and usually requires prohibitively high computational expense due to its non-linearity and the large number of degrees of freedom (DoF). This work describes a deep learning (DL) workflow to predict the pressure evolution as fluid flows in large-scale 3-dimensional(3D) heterogeneous porous media. In particular, we develop an efficient feature coarsening technique to extract the most representative information and perform the training and prediction of DL at the coarse scale, and further recover the resolution at the fine scale by spatial interpolation. We validate the DL approach to predict pressure field against physics-based simulation data for a field-scale 3D geologic CO 2 sequestration reservoir model. We evaluate the impact of feature coarsening on DL performance, and observe that the feature coarsening not only decreases the training time by >74% and reduces the memory consumption by >75%, but also maintains temporal error 0.63% on average. Besides, the DL workflow provides predictive efficiency with 1406 times speedup compared to physics-based numerical simulation. The key findings from this research significantly improve the training and prediction efficiency of deep learning model to deal with large-scale heterogeneous reservoir models, and thus it can also be further applied to accelerate workflows of history matching and reservoir optimization for close-loop reservoir management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-based modeling and information-theoretic sensor and settings selection for tool wear detection in precision machining

Precision machining of metals is an energy intensive process with applications and impacts across the manufacturing industry. The energy efficiency, product yield, and maintenance of the precision machine require a digital twin that can assist with prognostics and health management. In this report a physics-based model is developed and validated against face milling data, and then used for the timely and precise inference of machining faults that cannot be measured directly. Computer numerical control (CNC) measurements of power and force are used through this physics-based machining model to predict deviations of the outputs of power consumption and cutting forces during normal operation. A model-based fault detection and isolation methodology is applied to determine the optimal (traditional and available) sensor suite and the test settings (admissible input values) that improve the inference of tool wear in face milling. The optimal sensor suite and input test settings are obtained by solving a mixed integer non-linear program that optimizes information-theoretic metrics relevant to the detection and isolation of tool wear from steady-state or transient machining measurements. Dynamic time warping and k—NN classification are then used to validate the robustness of the optimal design for fault detection test design, including the optimal sensor suite.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling Time-Dependent Surrogates of Additive-Manufactured Nuclear Fuels Processes

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is being increasingly adopted in a wide variety of application areas for its ability to rapidly produce, prototype, and customize designs. Recently, a hybrid AM technique was successfully developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to manufacture nuclear fuels [1]. Despite the advantages, this AM technique needs optimization due to defects from a highly complex melting and sintering process. The complex metallurgical phenomena during AM processes are strongly related to parameters such as applied laser power, traveling speed, and scan style, which could lead to differences in density, residual stress, crystallographic texture, and mechanical properties. In addition, stochastic variations in laser energy interaction and associated multiscale/multiphysics phenomena cause variations in microstructure evolution and mechanical properties. Currently, researchers at INL are focusing on developing a comprehensive modeling framework, leveraging INL’s simulation tools MOOSE/MARMOT/BISON/RAVEN [2-4] to describe all steps of this AM process across multiple length scales. Although this advanced framework plays a critical role in enabling enhancements to traditional trial and error approaches for design and optimization of nuclear fuel materials, it remains computationally intense, limiting its use in sensitivity and optimization analysis. In this case, an accurate and inexpensive surrogate becomes an effective tool for providing a tractable approximation of the underlying underline physics. Surrogate models generally not based on the physics of a system are purely mathematical models used to capture the relationships between specific system inputs and outputs. Popular approaches, including neural networks [5], response surfaces [6], and subspace-based reduced order models [7], have been applied to a wide range of disciplines, such as nuclear reactor design, aerospace design and automotive design. In this summary, we employ advanced time-dependent surrogate models such as high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) [8] and physics-informed deep neural network (PINNs) [9] to accelerate the design and optimization of AM process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Physical Sciences Vistas: Issue 4 2021

In this issue of Physical Sciences Vistas we highlight examples of “excellence in nuclear security.” In this issue, highlights of our outstanding work supporting the Laboratory’s nuclear security enterprise include the following: The complete refurbishment of Sigma’s surface finishing lab. Pride in the lab’s revitalized condition on the part of the operations and R&D staff responsible for this complex operation is well justified. Development of advanced materials and processes enabling next-generation weapons designs, much of which has been facilitated by projects supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. The use of proton radiography in illuminating elements important to validating high explosive burn models. The experimental series was a collaboration between Los Alamos researchers and staff at Lawrence Livermore and Sandia national laboratories and the United Kingdom’s Atomic Weapons Establishment. Deployment of a sophisticated remote handling unit to safely transfer highly radioactive materials required to support mission-critical projects. The skillful swap of an electrical transformer at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). The deliberate operation restored power to the accelerator in less than estimated time. A look at George Goff ’s role in translating fundamental science into applied solutions essential to the Lab’s nuclear security mission.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a BlueCRAB/MELCOR Framework for Supporting Realistic Mechanistic Source Term Calculations in Microreactors

Efforts are currently underway to deploy microreactor modeling and simulation tools to better support vendors and regulatory authorities in submitting and reviewing licensing applications. In particular, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is expected to rely on the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (BlueCRAB) multiphysics toolset in performing design- and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. In addition, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using the MELCOR code to estimate mechanistic source terms during accidents. As MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power evolution profiles during accident conditions—all of which can theoretically be obtained from BlueCRAB—the ultimate goal of this activity is to establish a common BlueCRAB-MELCOR framework. However, prior to the present research, BlueCRAB had never been used to calculate such quantities of interest at the full-core level. While there are many Monte Carlo (MC) codes capable of computing such quantities of interest, they are unable to readily account for multiphysics feedback. BlueCRAB allows for the coupling of different physics codes together to perform multiphysics-informed calculations. Therefore, the purpose of this fiscal year 2023 work is to investigate the feasibility and challenges of performing such calculations within BlueCRAB so as to generate the data that MELCOR relies on. To demonstrate the methodology, the proposed workflow was applied to a prototypical heat pipe-cooled microreactor model. To predict isotopic concentrations (taking into account the ac- cumulation of fission products during operation), the necessary microscopic cross sections were generated via OpenMC and tabulated with respect to temperature and burnup. Next, a recently developed capability in Griffin (the reactor physics application in BlueCRAB) was used to convert the OpenMC output format into the ISOXML format used by Griffin. A multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation that involved performing a coupled full-core, heterogeneous neutron trans- port and thermal calculation at each depletion step was conducted to deplete the core to end of life (EOL) conditions so as to provide both isotopics and the initial condition for the transient calculation. Following a brief null-transient to verify that the initial condition had been properly restarted and was indeed in thermal equilibrium, a heat pipe failure transient was simulated. Thus, the entire workflow of using BlueCRAB to generate MELCOR inputs, from cross-section generation to producing isotopic inventory and power/temperature evolution profiles during transients, is demonstrated. This report also details the identified gaps in the workflow and how they were (for the most part) addressed. Future work should focus on directly including MEL- COR into the workflow by performing a MELCOR calculation using the BlueCRAB-generated input data. In addition, the heat pipe reactor design should be improved so as to reflect more prototypical burnup characteristics at EOL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advective gas flow in bentonite: Development and comparison of enhanced multi-phase numerical approaches

Understanding the impact of repository gas, generated from degradation of waste and its interaction with the host rock, is essential when assessing the performance and safety function of long-term disposal systems for radioactive waste. Numerical models based on conventional multi-phase flow theory have historically been applied to predict the outcome and impact of gas flow on different repository components. However, they remain unable to describe the full complexity of the physical processes observed in water-saturated experiments (e.g., creation of dilatant pathways) and thus, the development of novel representations for their description is required when assessing fully saturated clay-based systems. This was the primary focus of Task A within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2019 (D-2019) and refinement of these approaches is the primary focus of this study (Task B in the current phase of DECOVALEX-2023). This paper summarises development of enhanced numerical representations of key processes and compares the performance of each model against high-quality laboratory test data. Experimental data reveals that gas percolation in water-saturated compacted bentonite is characterised by four key features: (i) a quiescence phase, followed by (ii) the gas breakthrough, which leads to a (iii) peak value, which is then followed by (iv) a negative decay. Three models based on the multiphase flow theory have been developed. These models can provide good initial values and reasonable responses for gas breakthrough (although some of them still predict a too-smooth response). Peak gas pressure values are in general reasonably well captured, although maximum radial stress differences are observed at 48 mm from the base of the sample. Here, numerical peak values of 12.8 MPa are predicted, whereas experimental values are about 11 MPa. These models are also capable of providing a reasonable representation of the negative pressure decay following peak pressure. However, other key specific features (such as the timing of gas breakthrough) still require a better representation. The model simulations and their comparison with experimental data show that these models need to be further improved with respect to model parameter calibration, the numerical representation of spatial heterogeneities in material properties and flow localisation, and the upscaling of the related physical processes and parameters. To further understand gas flow localisation, a new conceptual model has been developed, which shows that discrete channels can possibly be induced through the instability of gas-bentonite interface during gas injection, thus providing a new perspective for modeling gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ordered magnetic fields around the 3C 84 central black hole

Context. 3C 84 is a nearby radio source with a complex total intensity structure, showing linear polarisation and spectral patterns. A detailed investigation of the central engine region necessitates the use of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) above the hitherto available maximum frequency of 86 GHz.Aims. Using ultrahigh resolution VLBI observations at the currently highest available frequency of 228 GHz, we aim to perform a direct detection of compact structures and understand the physical conditions in the compact region of 3C 84.Methods. We used Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 228 GHz observations and, given the limited (u, v)-coverage, applied geometric model fitting to the data. Furthermore, we employed quasi-simultaneously observed, ancillary multi-frequency VLBI data for the source in order to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the core structure.Results. We report the detection of a highly ordered, strong magnetic field around the central, supermassive black hole of 3C 84. The brightness temperature analysis suggests that the system is in equipartition. We also determined a turnover frequency of νm = (113 ± 4) GHz, a corresponding synchrotron self-absorbed magnetic field of BSSA = (2.9 ± 1.6) G, and an equipartition magnetic field of Beq = (5.2 ± 0.6) G. Three components are resolved with the highest fractional polarisation detected for this object (mnet = (17.0 ± 3.9)%). The positions of the components are compatible with those seen in low-frequency VLBI observations since 2017–2018. We report a steeply negative slope of the spectrum at 228 GHz. We used these findings to test existing models of jet formation, propagation, and Faraday rotation in 3C 84.Conclusions. The findings of our investigation into different flow geometries and black hole spins support an advection-dominated accretion flow in a magnetically arrested state around a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole as a model of the jet-launching system in the core of 3C 84. However, systematic uncertainties due to the limited (u, v)-coverage, however, cannot be ignored. Our upcoming work using new EHT data, which offer full imaging capabilities, will shed more light on the compact region of 3C 84.Key words: techniques: high angular resolution / techniques: interferometric / galaxies: active / galaxies: individual: NGC 1275 / galaxies: jets

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulating a numerical UV completion of quartic Galileons

The Galileon theory is a prototypical effective field theory that incorporates the Vainshtein screening mechanism—a feature that arises in some extensions of general relativity, such as massive gravity. The Vainshtein effect requires that the theory contain higher order derivative interactions, which results in Galileons, and theories like them, failing to be technically well posed. While this is not a fundamental issue when the theory is correctly treated as an effective field theory, it nevertheless poses significant practical problems when numerically simulating this model. These problems can be tamed using a number of different approaches: introducing an active low-pass filter and/or constructing a UV completion at the level of the equations of motion, which controls the high momentum modes. These methods have been tested on cubic Galileon interactions, and have been shown to reproduce the correct low-energy behavior. Here we show how the numerical UV-completion method can be applied to quartic Galileon interactions, and present the first simulations of the quartic Galileon model using this technique. We demonstrate that our approach can probe physics in the regime of the effective field theory in which the quartic term dominates, while successfully reproducing the known results for cubic interactions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Dark Photon Limits from Patchy Dark Screening of the Cosmic Microwave Background

Dark photons that kinetically mix with the Standard Model photon give rise to new spectral anisotropies (patchy dark screening) in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) due to conversion of photons to dark photons within large-scale structure. We utilize predictions for this patchy dark screening signal to provide the tightest constraints to date on the dark photon kinetic mixing parameter [ ϵ ≲ 4.5 × 10 − 8 (95% confidence level)] over the mass range 10 − 13 eV ≲ m A ′ ≲ 10 − 11 eV , almost an order of magnitude stronger than previous limits, by applying state-of-the-art component separation techniques to the cross-correlation of CMB and unWISE galaxy survey data. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

McCarthy, Fiona (ORCID:0000000253893565)↗

Coincident learning for beam-based rf station fault identification using phase information at the SLAC linac coherent light source

Anomalies in radio-frequency (rf) stations can result in unplanned downtime and performance degradation in linear accelerators such as SLAC’s Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Detecting these anomalies is challenging due to the complexity of accelerator systems, high data volume, and scarcity of labeled fault data. Prior work identified faults using beam-based detection, combining rf amplitude and beam position monitor data. Due to the simplicity of the rf amplitude data, classical methods are sufficient to identify faults, but the recall is constrained by the low-frequency and asynchronous characteristics of the data. In this work, we leverage high-frequency, time-synchronous rf phase data to enhance anomaly detection in the LCLS accelerator. Due to the complexity of phase data, classical methods fail, and we instead train deep neural networks within the Coincident Anomaly Detection (CoAD) framework. We find that applying CoAD to phase data detects nearly 3 times as many anomalies as when applied to amplitude data, while achieving broader coverage across rf stations. Furthermore, the rich structure of phase data enables us to cluster anomalies into distinct physical categories. Through the integration of auxiliary system status bits, we link clusters to specific fault signatures, providing additional granularity for uncovering the root cause of faults. We also investigate interpretability via Shapley values, confirming that the learned models focus on the most informative regions of the data and providing insight for cases where the model makes mistakes. This work demonstrates that phase-based anomaly detection for rf stations improves both diagnostic coverage and root cause analysis in accelerator systems and that deep neural networks are essential for effective analysis.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗

To what extent can space be compressed? Bandwidth limits of spaceplates

Spaceplates are novel flat-optic devices that implement the optical response of a free-space volume over a smaller length, effectively “compressing space” for light propagation. Together with flat lenses such as metalenses or diffractive lenses, spaceplates have the potential to enable the miniaturization of any free-space optical system. While the fundamental and practical bounds on the performance metrics of flat lenses have been well studied in recent years, a similar understanding of the ultimate limits of spaceplates is lacking, especially regarding the issue of bandwidth, which remains as a crucial roadblock for the adoption of this platform. In this work, we derive fundamental bounds on the bandwidth of spaceplates as a function of their numerical aperture and compression ratio (ratio by which the free-space pathway is compressed). The general form of these bounds is universal and can be applied and specialized for different broad classes of space-compression devices, regardless of their particular implementation. Our findings also offer relevant insights into the physical mechanism at the origin of generic space-compression effects and may guide the design of higher performance spaceplates, opening new opportunities for ultra-compact, monolithic, planar optical systems for a variety of applications.

Shastri, Kunal (ORCID:0000000169282753)↗

A 500 KV INVERTED GEOEMTRY FEEDTHROUGH FOR A HIGH VOLT-AGE DC ELECTRON GUN

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility injector at Jefferson Lab (JLab) utilizes an inverted-geometry ceramic insulator photogun operating at 130 kV direct current to generate spin-polarized electron beams for high-energy nuclear physics experiments. A second photogun delivers 180 keV beam for commissioning a SRF booster in a testbed accelerator, and a larger version delivers 300 keV magnetized beam in a test stand beam line. This contribution reports on the development of an unprecedented inverted-insulator with cable connector for reliably applying 500 kV DC to a future polarized beam photogun, to be designed for operating at 350 kV without field emission. Such a photogun design could then be used for generating a polarized electron beam to drive a spin-polarized positron source as a demonstrator for high energy nuclear physics at JLab. There are no commercial cable connectors that fit the large inverted insulators required for that voltage range. Our proposed concept is based on a modified epoxy receptacle with intervening SF6 layer and a test electrode in a vacuum vessel.

Hernandez-Garcia, C.↗

Integration of seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion of continuous active-seismic monitoring data for monitoring and quantifying CO 2 plume (Final Report)

The overall objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated package of joint seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion (jSPPI) of continuous active-source seismic monitoring dataset capable of providing real-time monitoring of CO 2 plume during geologic carbon sequestration (GCS). The three specific developments include: (a) the methodologies for fast seismic full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring, (CASSM) datasets for simultaneously estimating velocity and attenuation, and with data assimilation; (b) joint Bayesian petrophysical inversion of seismic models and pressure data for providing and updating CO 2 saturation models; (c) the methods using multiple datasets including (Crainfield and Frio-II borehole) synthetic, laboratory, and field CASSM datasets. The outcomes of jSPPI include (a) a workflow for processing CASSM data, (b) Bayesian inversion algorithms using CASSM data and pressure response data, and (c) integration with data assimilation algorithms for continuously updating site-specific models used for prediction and reservoir management. The validation of joint FWI will be conducted using synthetic models based on the Cranfield and Frio experiments as well as field CASSM datasets collected as part of the Frio-II pilot injection. To quantify and map the mass and distribution of CO 2 (saturation), we will jointly invert velocity and attenuation measurements from the FWI with a Bayesian approach using a rock physics model for attenuation (e.g., White’s attenuation model with two selected patch sizes (White, 1976; Dutta and Seriff, 1979)). The Bayesian inversion will be applied to each time step in the CASSM survey in an updating scheme, which integrates with an ensemble of reservoir simulations at each step. A more complete experimental validation dataset will be collected as part of a mesoscale (2-3 m) gas-CO 2 injection experiment utilizing a higher frequency version of the CASSM system developed for laboratory studies; the integrated inversion will be demonstrated using this dataset which will provide both a dense geometry as well as more precise secondary confirmation measurements (e.g. saturation) typically not available in the field. The resulting real-time map of CO 2 saturation is able to provide a deeper scientific understanding of the complex, time-varying dynamics of subsurface fluid flow migration path as well as the rapid detection of CO 2 leakage hazards.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Comparison of Temperature-Dependent Cross Section Treatments Within the Shift Monte Carlo Radiation Transport Code

Multiple calculation methods have been developed to account for Doppler broadening of cross sections in Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations. This work compares the accuracy and performance of four different broadening methods, including an on-the-fly multipole treatment, applied to three different geometries of increasing complexity, including a nuclear reactor assembly with a realistic temperature profile. The comparisons reveal how the combination of physics implementations in the Shift Monte Carlo code result in slightly different temperature-dependent behavior, and different levels of performance, for a variety of materials and situations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High-precision Galaxy Clustering Predictions from Small-volume Hydrodynamical Simulations via Control Variates

Abstract Cosmological simulations of galaxy formation are an invaluable tool for understanding galaxy formation and its impact on cosmological parameter inference from large-scale structures. However, their high computational cost is a significant obstacle for running simulations that probe cosmological volumes comparable to those analyzed by contemporary large-scale structure experiments. In this work, we explore the possibility of obtaining high-precision galaxy clustering predictions from small-volume hydrodynamical simulations such as MillenniumTNG and FLAMINGO via control variates. In this approach, the hydrodynamical full-physics simulation is paired with a matched low-resolution gravity-only simulation. By learning the galaxy–halo connection from the hydrodynamical simulation and applying it to the gravity-only counterpart, one obtains a galaxy population that closely mimics the one in the more expensive simulation. One can then construct an estimator of galaxy clustering that combines the clustering amplitudes in the small-volume hydrodynamical and gravity-only simulations with clustering amplitudes in a large-volume gravity-only simulation. Depending on the galaxy sample, clustering statistic, and scale, this galaxy clustering estimator can have an effective volume of up to around 100 times the volume of the original hydrodynamical simulation in the nonlinear regime. With this approach, we can construct galaxy clustering predictions from existing simulations that are precise enough for mock analyses of next-generation large-scale structure surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Doytcheva, Alexandra (ORCID:0009000111254888)↗

White Paper: Research & Development for the Time at Temperature Approach

Recent advancements in nuclear power research are greatly improving reactor safety and performance through the development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) and Low-Enriched Uranium Plus (LEU+). These innovations can address Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) margins, which are vital for reactor safety. DNB happens when the coolant switches to film boiling, significantly decreasing heat transfer and posing a risk of fuel cladding failure. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) employs conservative DNB criteria, which can potentially restrict the operational flexibility and efficiency of reactors. The Time at Temperature (TaT) approach could provide a more detailed and adaptable operational guideline by establishing acceptable time-temperature limits, accounting for the duration a material can withstand elevated temperatures without losing its integrity. This method allows reactors to operate more efficiently and safely, offering additional operational margins, faster power adjustments, and improved fuel cycle economics. TaT criteria allow for higher power levels and more flexible responses to operational transients, particularly applicable for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) that result in short durations of post-DNB conditions. It enhances plant operational flexibility, allows faster startup times, and enables quicker power level adjustments, optimizing fuel loading patterns and improving fuel cycle economics. Implementing TaT limits reduces core design constraints, lowers fuel usage, and reduces costs, essential for the long-term sustainability of Light Water Reactors (LWRs). TaT maximizes the use of advanced fuel technologies like ATF and LEU+, further enhancing their economic and environmental benefits. To apply the TaT approach in existing LWRs, collaborative research activities among various DOE-sponsored programs are essential. These efforts should incorporate fuel experiments, physics-based high-fidelity modeling, ML-based surrogate modeling, and optimization techniques. This whitepaper proposes four research and development areas: 1) Investigation of the feasibility of new operations of LWR with updated safety limits; 2) Assessment of reactor operation limits through uncertainty reduction; 3) Evaluation of power uprate in virtual environment; and 4) Lattice and reactor core design for power uprate. Each area includes why this research is in need and a suggested scope of work. These comprehensive research areas ensure practical and beneficial advancements for existing reactors, translating innovations in nuclear fuel and cladding technology into improved reactor performance and safety.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

GPLaSDI: Gaussian Process Latent Space Dynamics Identification

GPLaSDI is a software that introduces GPLaSDI, a novel LaSDI-based framework that relies on Gaussian process (GP) for latent space ODE interpolations. Using GPs offers two significant advantages. First, it enables the quantification of uncertainty over the reduced order model (ROM) predictions. Second, leveraging this prediction uncertainty allows for efficient adaptive training through a greedy selection of additional training data points. This approach does not require prior knowledge of the underlying PDEs. Consequently, GPLaSDI is inherently non-intrusive and can be applied to problems without a known PDE or its residual. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on the Burgers equation, Vlasov equation for plasma physics, and a rising thermal bubble problem. Our proposed method achieves between 200 and 100,000 times speed-up, with up to 7% relative error.

Choi, Youngsoo↗

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗