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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Nasa's International Space Station: A Testbed for Planetary Protection Protocol Development

Wherever humans go, they inevitably carry along the critters that live in and on them. Conventional wisdom has long held that it is unlikely those critters could survive the space environment, but in 2007 some microscopic aquatic animals called Tardigrades survived exposure to space and in 2008 Cyanobacteria lived for 548 days outside the ISS. Unlike the Mars rovers that were cleaned once and sent on their way, crew members will provide a constantly regenerating contaminant source. Are we prepared to certify that we can meet forward contamination protocols as we search for life at new destinations? What about the organisms we might reasonably expect a crewed spacecraft to leak or vent? Do we even know what they are? How long might our tiny hitch-hikers survive in close proximity to a warm spacecraft that periodically leaks/vents water or oxygen and how might they mutate with long-duration exposure? How will these contaminants migrate from their source in conditions encountered in space or on other planetary surfaces? This project aims to answer some of these questions by bringing together key stakeholder communities to develop a human forward contamination test, analysis, and integration plan. A system engineering approach to identify the experiments, analysis, and modeling needed to develop the contamination control protocols required will be used as a roadmap to integrate the many different parts of this problem - from launch to landing, living, and working on another planetary surface.

Bell, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Determining the composition of olivine on asteroidal surfaces

Olivine was remotely identified as a major component on many S- and A-type asteroids based on qualitative analyses of broad absorption features near 1.0 micron in their telescopic reflectance spectra. Laboratory studies showed that this diagnostic olivine absorption feature is composed of three individual absorption bands resulting from electronic transitions of Fe(+2) in distorted M1 and M2 sites. Both the overall absorption feature and each of the individual absorption bands are also known to vary systematically as a function of olivine composition. Thus, it should be possible to remotely determine the composition of olivine present on the surfaces of the various olivine-rich asteroids. However, extrapolation of laboratory studies to compositional interpretation of asteroid spectra is complicated by several factors: observational noise; lower spectral resolution; compositional heterogeneities (including the presence of other phases such as pyroxenes and/or metal); and the effects of alteration processes. In order to address such complex problems, a quantitative approach to spectral analysis, the modified Gaussian model (MGM) was developed by Sunshine et al., which deconvolves spectra into their constituent absorption bands. The MGM, a refinement of the Gaussian model, more accurately adheres to the physical processes involved in electronic transition absorptions. Under the MGM, each spectrum is modeled in log reflectance and energy as a sum of absorption bands superimposed onto a baseline or continuum. Each absorption band is described by three model parameters (center, width, and strength) which can be interpreted and used to infer composition. One of the strengths of the MGM is that it allows compositional information to be extracted directly from measured spectra and is therefore complementary to other approaches to modeling asteroid spectra which require the use of meteorites and/or terrestrial samples as spectral analogs. A quantitative understanding of the properties of olivine absorptions was established by using the MGM to analyze a laboratory suite of spectra spanning a full range of olivine compositions.

Sunshine, Jessica M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mercury speciation using microcolumns with a direct mercury analyzer (DMA). Development of analytical method for the Savannah River Site liquid system

Mercury in the Savannah River Site (SRS) Liquid Waste System (LWS) exists in various forms, including: a) ionic inorganic mercury, organomercury (e.g., methyl Hg), and other less abundant species dissolved in LWS fluids, b) mercury solids such as oxides, hydroxides, amalgams, sulfides, and sorbed mercury, c) accumulations of dense liquid elemental mercury, and d) vapor phase elemental and organomercury mercury in tank headspace gas and in evaporators. Strategic and proactive management of the estimated 60,000 Kg mercury in the LWS requires deployment of efficient and effective paradigms for sampling and analysis of the total quantity of mercury in the various physical-chemical forms. Scoping tests of selective gas-phase sorbents for mercury speciation were performed to support LWS objectives. This research specifically focused on developing and testing streamlined methods to obtain high-quality analytical results for gaseous mercury species. The proposed methods are straightforward, using small columns (microcolumns) filled with materials that selectively sorb one or more target forms of mercury. Simple differentiation of mercury species and quantification is then achieved using an efficient thermal-desorption-based total mercury analyzer as the final step. Benefits associated with transitioning from multistep procedures such as EPA Methods 245.1, 1630 and 1631to streamlined microcolumn approaches include reduced analysis time, labor, and waste generation. Such transitioning would maximize the value of the current deployment of direct mercury analysis (EPA Method 7473) at SRS. This work has two target end uses: 1) simplifying the analysis steps and reducing costs for liquid samples (e.g., developing a total organic mercury (TOM) method), and 2) providing options for high-quality onsite analysis and rapid turnaround for gas samples in support of SRS LWS industrial hygiene (IH) objectives.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1987

Presentations by participants (edited and condensed)

The utility of Geomagnetic Automonous Shuttle-Launched Probe (GASP) for studying the earth's crust can be characterized in terms of lithospheric contributions by past satellite programs. In contrast to the POGO and MAGSAT satellites, GASP will orbit at a lower elevation to provide better resolved lithospheric magnetic anomalies for more detailed and improved geologic analysis. In the geological representation of satellite magnetic anomaly data, two current approaches can serve the analysis of GASP observations. When global scale coverage is available, spherical harmonic expansions of the observations may be utilized. When satellite elevation data is used, a useful and efficient approach is to determine the physical properties of an array of point equivalent sources by least squares matrix inversion of the observations, which will closely duplicate the observed field. An important preliminary step in the representation of satellite magnetic observations by either approach, is to register the data at constant elevation over uniform intervals of latitude and longitude. Further applications of GASP are discussed.

Vonfrese, R. R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

Wolfe, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Missions and Instruments: Hopes and Hope Fulfilled

The titles in this section include: 1) Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera in the Extended Mission: The MOC Toolkit; 2) Mars Odyssey THEMIS-VIS Calibration; 3) Early Science Operations and Results from the ESA Mars Express Mission: Focus on Imaging and Spectral Mapping; 4) The Mars Express/NASA Project at JPL; 5) Beagle 2: Mission to Mars - Current Status; 6) The Beagle 2 Microscope; 7) Mars Environmental Chamber for Dynamic Dust Deposition and Statics Analysis; 8) Locating Targets for CRISM Based on Surface Morphology and Interpretation of THEMIS Data; 9) The Phoenix Mission to Mars; 10) First Studies of Possible Landing Sites for the Phoenix Mars Scout Mission Using the BMST; 11) The 2009 Mars Telecommunications Orbiter; 12) The Aurora Exploration Program - The ExoMars Mission; 13) Electron-induced Luminescence and X-Ray Spectrometer (ELXS) System Development; 14) Remote-Raman and Micro-Raman Studies of Solid CO2, CH4, Gas Hydrates and Ice; 15) The Compact Microimaging Spectrometer (CMIS): A New Tool for In-Situ Planetary Science; 16) Preliminary Results of a New Type of Surface Property Measurement Ideal for a Future Mars Rover Mission; 17) Electrodynamic Dust Shield for Solar Panels on Mars; 18) Sensor Web for Spatio-Temporal Monitoring of a Hydrological Environment; 19) Field Testing of an In-Situ Neutron Spectrometer for Planetary Exploration: First Results; 20) A Miniature Solid-State Spectrometer for Space Applications - Field Tests; 21) Application of Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) to Mars Polar Exploration: LIBS Analysis of Water Ice and Water Ice/Soil Mixtures; 22) LIBS Analysis of Geological Samples at Low Pressures: Application to Mars, the Moon, and Asteroids; 23) In-Situ 1-D and 2-D Mapping of Soil Core and Rock Samples Using the LIBS Long Spark; 24) Rocks Analysis at Stand Off Distance by LIBS in Martian Conditions; 25) Evaluation of a Compact Spectrograph/Detection System for a LIBS Instrument for In-Situ and Stand-Off Detection; 26) Analysis of Organic Compounds in Mars Analog Samples; 27) Report of the Organic Contamination Science Steering Group; 28) The Water-Wheel IR (WIR) - A Contact Survey Experiment for Water and Carbonates on Mars; 29) Mid-IR Fiber Optic Probe for In Situ Water Detection and Characterization; 30) Effects of Subsurface Sampling & Processing on Martian Simulant Containing Varying Quantities of Water; 31) The Subsurface Ice Probe (SIPR): A Low-Power Thermal Probe for the Martian Polar Layered Deposits; 32) Deploying Ground Penetrating Radar in Planetary Analog Sites to Evaluate Potential Instrument Capabilities on Future Mars Missions; 33) Evaluation of Rock Powdering Methods to Obtain Fine-grained Samples for CHEMIN, a Combined XRD/XRF Instrument; 34) Novel Sample-handling Approach for XRD Analysis with Minimal Sample Preparation; 35) A New Celestial Navigation Method for Mars Landers; 36) Mars Mineral Spectroscopy Web Site: A Resource for Remote Planetary Spectroscopy.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1990

Asymptotic analysis of dissipative waves with applications to their numerical simulation

Various problems involving the interplay of asymptotics and numerics in the analysis of wave propagation in dissipative systems are studied. A general approach to the asymptotic analysis of linear, dissipative waves is developed. It was applied to the derivation of asymptotic boundary conditions for numerical solutions on unbounded domains. Applications include the Navier-Stokes equations. Multidimensional traveling wave solutions to reaction-diffusion equations are also considered. A preliminary numerical investigation of a thermo-diffusive model of flame propagation in a channel with heat loss at the walls is presented.

Hagstrom, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1993

Helicopter approach capability using the differential global positioning system

The results of flight tests to determine the feasibility of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) in the differential mode (DGPS) to provide high accuracy, precision navigation, and guidance for helicopter approaches to landing are presented. The airborne DGPS receiver and associated equipment is installed in a NASA UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter. The ground-based DGPS reference receiver is located at a surveyed test site and is equipped with a real-time VHF data link to transmit correction information to the airborne DGPS receiver. The corrected airborne DGPS information, together with the preset approach geometry, is used to calculate guidance commands which are sent to the aircraft's approach guidance instruments. The use of DGPS derived guidance for helicopter approaches to landing is evaluated by comparing the DGPS data with the laser tracker truth data. Both standard (3 deg) and steep (6 deg and 9 deg) glideslope straight-in approaches were flown. DGPS positioning accuracy based on a time history analysis of the entire approach was 0.2 m (mean) +/- 1.8 m (2 sigma) laterally and -2.0 m (mean) +/- 3.5 m (2 sigma) vertically for 3 deg glideslope approaches, -0.1 m (mean) +/- 1.5 m (2 sigma) laterally and -1.1 m (mean) +/- 3.5 m (2 sigma) vertically for 6 deg glideslope approaches and 0.2 m (mean) +/- 1.3 m (2 sigma) laterally and -1.0 m (mean) +/- 2.8 m (2 sigma) vertically for 9 deg glideslope approaches. DGPS positioning accuracy at the 200 ft decision height (DH) on a standard 3 deg slideslope approach was 0.3 m (mean) +/- 1.5 m (2 sigma) laterally and -2.3 m (mean) +/- 1.6 m (2 sigma) vertically. These errors indicate that the helicopter position based on DGPS guidance satisfies the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Category 1 (CAT 1) lateral and vertical navigational accuracy requirements.

Kaufmann, David N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Helicopter approach capability using the differential Global Positioning System

The results of flight tests to determine the feasibility of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) in the differential mode (DGPS) to provide high accuracy, precision navigation and guidance for helicopter approaches to landing are presented. The airborne DGPS receiver and associated equipment is installed in a NASA UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter. The ground-based DGPS reference receiver is located at a surveyed test site and is equipped with a real-time VHF data link to transmit correction information to the airborne DGPS receiver. The corrected airborne DGPS information, together with the preset approach geometry, is used to calculate guidance commands which are sent to the aircraft's approach guidance instruments. The use of DGPS derived guidance for helicopter approaches to landing is evaluated by comparing the DGPS data with the laser tracker truth data. Both standard (3 degrees) and steep (6 degrees and 9 degrees) glidescope straight-in approaches were flown. DGPS positioning accuracy based on a time history analysis of the entire approach was 0.2 m (mean) +/- 1.8 m (2 sigma) laterally and -2.0 m (mean) +/- 3.5 m (2 sigma) vertically for 3 degree glidescope approaches, -0.1 m (mean) +/- 1.5 m (2 sigma) laterally and -1.1 m (mean) +/- 3.5 m (2 sigma) vertically for 6 degree glidescope approaches, and 0.2 m (mean) +/- 1.3 m (2 sigma) laterally and -1.0 m (mean) +/- 2.8 (2 sigma) vertically for 9 degree glidescope approaches. DGPS positioning accuracy at the 200 ft decision height on a standard 3 degree glidescope approach was 0.3 m (mean) +/- 1.5 m (2 sigma) laterally and -2.3 m (mean) +/- 1.6 m (2 sigma) vertically. These errors indicate that the helicopter position based on DGPS guidance satisfies the International Civil Aviation Organization Category 1 lateral and vertical accuracy requirements.

Kaufmann, David N.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Fatigue Characterization of Alloy 10: a 1300F Disk Alloy for Small Gas Turbine Engines

A detailed fatigue characterization of Alloy 10, a high strength nickel-based disk alloy, was conducted on test coupons machined from a 'pancake' forging. Smooth bar, strain controlled fatigue testing at various R-ratios was run at representative bore, 750 F, and rim, 1300 F, temperatures. This was followed by notch fatigue testing (Kt=2) run under load control. Analysis of the fatigue data using a Smith-Watson-Topper approach and finite element analysis of the notch root was employed to understand material behavior in these tests. Smooth bar fatigue data showed a significant R-ratio dependence at either test temperature which could be accounted for using a Smith-Watson-Topper parameter (SWT). In general, fatigue life was longer at 750 F than 1300 F for a given SWT. For notch fatigue tests, life was longer at 750 F than 1300 F but only at higher stresses. This was attributed to differences in alloy strength. At lower stresses, finite element analysis suggested that convergence of fatigue life at both temperatures resulted from relaxation of stresses at the notch root in the 1300 F tests.

Gayda, John↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Revisiting Building-Block Approaches for Structures

The building-block approach is a method for building confidence in designs, working from lower-level components to more complex assemblies, using knowledge gained at each step to inform higher fidelity representations. The goals of this paper are to revisit the basic techniques of the building-block approach as it applies to structural design and analysis and illustrate some best practices that should be considered when developing structural analysis models. The paper demonstrates the process of leveraging existing information to build confidence in the design/development of analysis models, followed by examples of how the building-block approach for analysis was used in NASA hardware and spacecraft development efforts. The paper will also discuss virtual testing and hybrid simulation techniques, which are showing promise for more efficient/cost-effective verification of aerospace structures.

Kenneth R. Hamm Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the Power of Abstract Interpretation

Increasingly sophisticated applications of static analysis place increased burden on the reliability of the analysis techniques. Often, the failure of the analysis technique to detect some information my mean that the time or space complexity of the generated code would be altered. Thus, it is important to precisely characterize the power of static analysis techniques. We follow the approach of Selur et. al. who studied the power of strictness analysis techniques. Their result can be summarized by saying 'strictness analysis is perfect up to variations in constants.' In other words, strictness analysis is as good as it could be, short of actually distinguishing between concrete values. We use this approach to characterize a broad class of analysis techniques based on abstract interpretation including, but not limited to, strictness analysis. For the first-order case, we consider abstract interpretations where the abstract domain for data values is totally ordered. This condition is satisfied by Mycroft's strictness analysis that of Sekar et. al. and Wadler's analysis of list-strictness. For such abstract interpretations, we show that the analysis is complete in the sense that, short of actually distinguishing between concrete values with the same abstraction, it gives the best possible information. We further generalize these results to typed lambda calculus with pairs and higher-order functions. Note that products and function spaces over totally ordered domains are not totally ordered. In fact, the notion of completeness used in the first-order case fails if product domains or function spaces are added. We formulate a weaker notion of completeness based on observability of values. Two values (including pairs and functions) are considered indistinguishable if their observable components are indistinguishable. We show that abstract interpretation of typed lambda calculus programs is complete up to this notion of indistinguishability. We use denotationally-oriented arguments instead of the detailed operational arguments used by Selur et. al.. Hence, our proofs are much simpler. They should be useful for further future improvements.

Reddy, Uday S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing a supernova’s standing accretion shock instability with neutrinos and gravitational waves

Here, we perform a novel multi-messenger analysis for the identification and parameter estimation of the Standing Accretion Shock Instability (SASI) in a core collapse supernova with neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals. In the neutrino channel, this method performs a likelihood ratio test for the presence of SASI in the frequency domain. For gravitational wave signals we process an event with a modified constrained likelihood method. Using simulated supernova signals, the properties of the Hyper-Kamiokande neutrino detector, and O3 LIGO Interferometric data, we produce the two-dimensional probability density distribution (PDF) of the SASI activity indicator and calculate the probability of detection P D as well as the false identification probability P FI . We discuss the probability to establish the presence of the SASI as a function of the source distance in each observational channel, as well as jointly. Compared to a single-messenger approach, the joint analysis results in P D (at P FI = 0.1) of SASI activities that is larger by up to ≈ 40% for a distance to the supernova of 5 kpc. We also discuss how accurately the frequency and duration of the SASI activity can be estimated in each channel separately. Our methodology is suitable for implementation in a realistic data analysis and a multi-messenger setting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

On the wall-normal velocity of the compressible boundary-layer equations

Numerical methods for the compressible boundary-layer equations are facilitated by transformation from the physical (x,y) plane to a computational (xi,eta) plane in which the evolution of the flow is 'slow' in the time-like xi direction. The commonly used Levy-Lees transformation results in a computationally well-behaved problem for a wide class of non-similar boundary-layer flows, but it complicates interpretation of the solution in physical space. Specifically, the transformation is inherently nonlinear, and the physical wall-normal velocity is transformed out of the problem and is not readily recovered. In light of recent research which shows mean-flow non-parallelism to significantly influence the stability of high-speed compressible flows, the contribution of the wall-normal velocity in the analysis of stability should not be routinely neglected. Conventional methods extract the wall-normal velocity in physical space from the continuity equation, using finite-difference techniques and interpolation procedures. The present spectrally-accurate method extracts the wall-normal velocity directly from the transformation itself, without interpolation, leaving the continuity equation free as a check on the quality of the solution. The present method for recovering wall-normal velocity, when used in conjunction with a highly-accurate spectral collocation method for solving the compressible boundary-layer equations, results in a discrete solution which is extraordinarily smooth and accurate, and which satisfies the continuity equation nearly to machine precision. These qualities make the method well suited to the computation of the non-parallel mean flows needed by spatial direct numerical simulations (DNS) and parabolized stability equation (PSE) approaches to the analysis of stability.

Pruett, C. David↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Review and Qualitative Analysis of Micro-Combined Heat and Power Modeling Approaches

Concurrent production of electrical and thermal energy from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) device is an attractive tool to address the growing energy needs of the planet. Micro CHP (µCHP) systems can reduce a building’s primary energy consumption, reduce carbon footprint, and enhance resiliency. Modeling of the µCHP helps understand the system from multiple perspectives and helps discover errors earlier, improves impact analysis and simulation of system solutions for ease of integration with the building. Consequently, there is a need for analysis of the impact of µCHP modeling approach on its reliability and flexibility. The primary objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the art models in the µCHP space with a focus towards internal combustion engine as the primary mover (PM) and limit the study to system modeling, calibration, and validation methodologies. Based on the analysis, recommendations for further model considerations and refinements are presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from A Mass Spectrometry-Based High-Throughput Screening Method for Engineering Fatty Acid Synthases with Improved Production of Medium Chain Fatty Acids

Microbial cell factories have been extensively engineered to produce free fatty acids (FFAs) as key components of crucial nutrients, soaps, industrial chemicals, and fuels. However, our ability to control the composition of microbially synthesized FFAs is still limited, particularly, for producing medium‐chain fatty acids (MCFAs). This is mainly due to the lack of high‐throughput approaches for FFA analysis to engineer enzymes with desirable product specificity. Here we report a mass spectrometry (MS)‐based method for rapid profiling of MCFAs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by using membrane lipids as a proxy. In particular, matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization time‐of‐flight (MALDI‐ToF) MS was used to detect shorter acyl chain phosphatidylcholines from membrane lipids and a higher m/z peak ratio at 730 and 758 was used as an indication for improved MCFA production. This colony‐based method can be performed at a rate of ~2 s per sample, representing a substantial improvement over gas chromatography‐MS (typically >30 min per sample) as the gold standard method for FFA detection. To demonstrate the power of this method, we performed site‐saturation mutagenesis of the yeast fatty acid synthase and identified nine missense mutations that resulted in improved MCFA production relative to the wild‐type strain. Colony‐based MALDI‐ToF MS screening provides an effective approach for engineering microbial fatty acid compositions in a high‐throughput manner.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laue-DIALS: Open-source software for polychromatic x-ray diffraction data

Most x-ray sources are inherently polychromatic. Polychromatic (“pink”) x-rays provide an efficient way to conduct diffraction experiments as many more photons can be used and large regions of reciprocal space can be probed without sample rotation during exposure—ideal conditions for time-resolved applications. Analysis of such data is complicated, however, causing most x-ray facilities to discard >99% of x-ray photons to obtain monochromatic data. Key challenges in analyzing polychromatic diffraction data include lattice searching, indexing and wavelength assignment, correction of measured intensities for wavelength-dependent effects, and deconvolution of harmonics. We recently described an algorithm, Careless, that can perform harmonic deconvolution and correct measured intensities for variation in wavelength when presented with integrated diffraction intensities and assigned wavelengths. Here, we present Laue-DIALS, an open-source software pipeline that indexes and integrates polychromatic diffraction data. Laue-DIALS is based on the dxtbx toolbox, which supports the DIALS software commonly used to process monochromatic data. As such, Laue-DIALS provides many of the same advantages: an open-source, modular, and extensible architecture, providing a robust basis for future development. We present benchmark results showing that Laue-DIALS, together with Careless, provides a suitable approach to the analysis of polychromatic diffraction data, including for time-resolved applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Why does cyber deterrence fail and when might it succeed? A framework for cyber scenario analysis

Through cyberattacks on information technology and digital communications systems, antagonists have increasingly been able to alter the strategic balance in their favor without provoking serious consequences. Conflict within and through the cyber domain is inherently different from conflict in other domains that house our critical systems. These differences result in new challenges for defending and creating resilient systems, and for deterring those who would wish to disrupt or destroy them. The purpose of this paper is to further examine the question of whether or not deterrence can be an effective strategy in cyber conflict, given our broad and varied interests in cyberspace. We define deterrence broadly as the creation of conditions that dissuade antagonists from taking unwanted actions because they believe that they will incur unacceptably high costs and/or receive insufficient benefits from taking that action. Deterrence may or may not be the most credible or effective strategy for achieving our desired end states in cybersecurity. Regardless of the answer here, however, it is important to consider why deterrence strategies might succeed under certain conditions, and to understand why deterrence is not effective within the myriad contexts that it appears fail. Deterrence remains a key component of U.S. cyber strategy, but there is little detail on how to operationalize or implement this policy, how to bring a whole-of-government and whole-of- private-sector approach to cyber deterrence, which types of antagonists can or should be deterred, and in which contexts. Moreover, discussion about how nations can and should respond to significant cyber incidents largely centers around whether or not the incident constitutes a "use of force," which would justify certain types of responses according to international law. However, we believe the "use of force" threshold is inadequate to describe the myriad interests and objectives of actors in cyberspace, both attackers and defenders. In this paper, we propose an approach to further examine if deterrence is an effective strategy and under which conditions. Our approach includes systematic analysis of cyber incident scenarios using a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of various activities in influencing antagonist behavior. While we only examine a single scenario for this paper, we propose that additional work is needed to more fully understand how various alternative thresholds constrain or unleash options for actors to influence one another's behavior in the cyber domain.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗