Results for “Stochastic Simulation” — Page 79

NASA NTRS1989

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2011

Topics covered include: 1) Collaborative Clustering for Sensor Networks; 2) Teleoperated Marsupial Mobile Sensor Platform Pair for Telepresence Insertion Into Challenging Structures; 3) Automated Verification of Spatial Resolution in Remotely Sensed Imagery; 4) Electrical Connector Mechanical Seating Sensor; 5) In Situ Aerosol Detector; 6) Multi-Parameter Aerosol Scattering Sensor; 7) MOSFET Switching Circuit Protects Shape Memory Alloy Actuators; 8) Optimized FPGA Implementation of Multi-Rate FIR Filters Through Thread Decomposition; 9) Circuit for Communication Over Power Lines; 10) High-Efficiency Ka-Band Waveguide Two-Way Asymmetric Power Combiner; 11) 10-100 Gbps Offload NIC for WAN, NLR, and Grid Computing; 12) Pulsed Laser System to Simulate Effects of Cosmic Rays in Semiconductor Devices; 13) Flight Planning in the Cloud; 14) MPS Editor; 15) Object-Oriented Multi Disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool; 16) Cryogenic-Compatible Winchester Connector Mount and Retaining System for Composite Tubes; 17) Development of Position-Sensitive Magnetic Calorimeters for X-Ray Astronomy; 18) Planar Rotary Piezoelectric Motor Using Ultrasonic Horns; 19) Self-Rupturing Hermetic Valve; 20) Explosive Bolt Dual-Initiated from One Side; 21) Dampers for Stationary Labyrinth Seals; 22) Two-Arm Flexible Thermal Strap; 23) Carbon Dioxide Removal via Passive Thermal Approaches; 24) Polymer Electrolyte-Based Ambient Temperature Oxygen Microsensors for Environmental Monitoring; 25) Pressure Shell Approach to Integrated Environmental Protection; 26) Image Quality Indicator for Infrared Inspections; 27) Micro-Slit Collimators for X-Ray/Gamma-Ray Imaging; 28) Scatterometer-Calibrated Stability Verification Method; 29) Test Port for Fiber-Optic-Coupled Laser Altimeter; 30) Phase Retrieval System for Assessing Diamond Turning and Optical Surface Defects; 31) Laser Oscillator Incorporating a Wedged Polarization Rotator and a Porro Prism as Cavity Mirror; 32) Generic, Extensible, Configurable Push-Pull Framework for Large-Scale Science Missions; 33) Dynamic Loads Generation for Multi-Point Vibration Excitation Problems; 34) Optimal Control via Self-Generated Stochasticity; 35) Space-Time Localization of Plasma Turbulence Using Multiple Spacecraft Radio Links; 36) Surface Contact Model for Comets and Asteroids; 37) Dust Mitigation Vehicle; 38) Optical Coating Performance for Heat Reflectors of the JWST-ISIM Electronic Component; 39) SpaceCube Demonstration Platform; 40) Aperture Mask for Unambiguous Parity Determination in Long Wavelength Imagers; 41) Spaceflight Ka-Band High-Rate Radiation-Hard Modulator; 42) Enabling Disabled Persons to Gain Access to Digital Media; 43) Cytometer on a Chip; 44) Principles, Techniques, and Applications of Tissue Microfluidics; and 45) Two-Stage Winch for Kites and Tethered Balloons or Blimps.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exascale granular microstructure reconstruction in 3D volumes of arbitrary geometries with generative learning

Reconstructing 3D granular microstructures within volumes of arbitrary geometries from limited 2D image data is crucial for predicting the material properties, as well as performances of structural components accounting for material microstructural effects. We present a novel generative learning framework that enables exascale reconstruction of granular microstructures within complex 3D geometric volumes. Building upon existing transfer learning techniques using pre-trained convolutional neural networks (CNN), we introduce several key innovations to overcome the difficulties inherent in arbitrary geometries. Our framework incorporates periodic boundary conditions using circular padding techniques, ensuring continuity and representativeness of the reconstructed microstructures. We also introduce a novel seamless transition reconstruction (STR) method that creates statistically equivalent transition zones to integrate multiple pre-existing 3D microstructure volumes. Based on STR, we propose a cost-effective strategy for reconstructing microstructures within complex geometric volumes, minimizing computational waste. Validation through numerical experiments using kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrates accurate reproduction of grain statistics, including grain size distributions and morphology. A case study involving the reconstruction of a 4-blade propeller microstructure illustrates the method’s capability to efficiently handle complex geometries. In conclusion, the proposed framework significantly reduces computational demands while maintaining high reconstruction quality, paving the way for scalable microstructure reconstruction in materials design and analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Toroidal modeling of runaway electron loss due to 3-D fields in DIII-D and COMPASS

The 3-D field induced relativistic runaway electron (RE) loss has been simulated for DIII-D, COMPASS and ITER plasmas, utilizing the MARS-F code incorporated with the recently developed and updated RE orbit module (REORBIT). Modeling shows effectively 100% loss of a post-disruption, high-current runaway beam in DIII-D, due to the 1 kG level of magnetic field perturbation produced by a fast growing n = 1 resistive kink instability. The RE loss is shown to be independent of the particle energy or the initial location of particles in the configuration space. Applied resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) fields from in-vessel coils are not effective for RE beam mitigation in DIII-D, but do produce finite (>10%) RE loss in COMPASS, consistent with experimental observations in above two devices. The major reasons for this difference in RE control by RMP between these two devices are (i) the coil proximity to the RE beam and (ii) the effective coil current scaling versus the machine size and the toroidal magnetic field. About 10% RE loss fraction is also predicted for an ITER 15 MA scenario with pre-disruption plasma, highlighting the role of the plasma response. Up to 30% loss is computed, however, by artificially scaling the equilibrium pressure to zero. This is due to the more resistive plasma response and stronger resulting field line stochasticity. Distributions of the lost REs to the limiting surface show poloidally peaked profile near the high-field-side in both DIII-D and COMPASS, covering about 100o poloidal angle. Higher perturbation field level and/or higher particle energy also result in REs being lost to the low-field-side of the limiting surface of these two devices, increasing the effective wetted area. Finally, for the modeled ITER plasmas, the applied RMP field, with optimal poloidal spectrum that maximizes the edge localized mode control, leads to REs being lost to the lower divertor region of the limiting surface within a narrow poloidal band.

3-D field↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lagrangian and Eulerian Supersaturation Statistics in Turbulent Cloudy Rayleigh–Bénard Convection: Applications for LES Subgrid Modeling

Abstract Turbulent fluctuations of scalar and velocity fields are critical for cloud microphysical processes, e.g., droplet activation and size distribution evolution, and can therefore influence cloud radiative forcing and precipitation formation. Lagrangian and Eulerian water vapor, temperature, and supersaturation statistics are investigated in direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in the Pi Convection Cloud Chamber to provide a foundation for parameterizing subgrid-scale fluctuations in atmospheric models. A subgrid model for water vapor and temperature variances and covariance and supersaturation variance is proposed, valid for both clear and cloudy conditions. Evaluation of phase change contributions through an a priori test using DNS data shows good performance of the model. Supersaturation is a nonlinear function of temperature and water vapor, and relative external fluxes of water vapor and heat (e.g., during entrainment-mixing and phase change) influence turbulent supersaturation fluctuations. Although supersaturation has autocorrelation and structure functions similar to the independent scalars (temperature and water vapor), the autocorrelation time scale of supersaturation differs. Relative scalar fluxes in DNS without cloud make supersaturation PDFs less skewed than the adiabatic case, where they are highly negatively skewed. However, droplet condensation changes the PDF shape response: it becomes positively skewed for the adiabatic case and negatively skewed when the sidewall relative fluxes are large. Condensation also increases correlations between water vapor and temperature in the presence of relative scalar fluxes but decreases correlations for the adiabatic case. These changes in correlation suppress supersaturation variability for the nonadiabatic cases and increase it for the adiabatic case. Implications of this work for subgrid microphysics modeling using a Lagrangian stochastic scheme are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detecting hidden transient events in noisy nonlinear time-series

The information impulse function (IIF), running Variance, and local Hölder Exponent are three conceptually different time-series evaluation techniques. These techniques examine time-series for local changes in information content, statistical variation, and point-wise smoothness, respectively. Using simulated data emulating a randomly excited nonlinear dynamical system, this study interrogates the utility of each method to correctly differentiate a transient event from the background while simultaneously locating it in time. Computational experiments are designed and conducted to evaluate the efficacy of each technique by varying pulse size, time location, and noise level in time-series. Our findings reveal that, in most cases, the first instance of a transient event is more easily observed with the information-based approach of IIF than with the Variance and local Hölder Exponent methods. While our study highlights the unique strengths of each technique, the results suggest that very robust and reliable event detection for nonlinear systems producing noisy time-series data can be obtained by incorporating the IIF into the analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Utah FORGE: Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Data

The FORGE team is making these fracture models available to researchers wanting a set of natural fractures in the FORGE reservoir for use in their own modeling work. They have been used to predict stimulation distances during hydraulic stimulation at the open toe section of well 16A(78)-32. These fracture sets are fully stochastic and do not contain the deterministic set that matches the pilot well 58-32 FMI data. Well 58-32 has been completed and 16A(78)-32 is to be drilled as part of Phase 3. The original .fab files are not included due to redundancy. The *.fabgz data for the 800m and 1200m depth areas are in the native FracMan format and have been compressed using Gzip. Filtered data for the 800m depth area includes .csv spreadsheets, native FracMan (.fab), and GOCAD (.ts) files that are in a compressed zip format. The file titled "SGW 2020 Finnila and Podgorney DFN fracture files on GDR.pdf" is a description of the data and should be reviewed prior to data use.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Randomized Algorithms for Scientific Computing (RASC)

Randomized algorithms have propelled advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and represent a foundational research area in advancing AI for Science. Future advancements in DOE Office of Science priority areas such as climate science, astrophysics, fusion, advanced materials, combustion, and quantum computing all require randomized algorithms for surmounting challenges of complexity, robustness, and scalability. Advances in data collection and numerical simulation have changed the dynamics of scientific research and motivate the need for randomized algorithms. For instance, advances in imaging technologies such as X-ray ptychography, electron microscopy, electron energy loss spectroscopy, or adaptive optics lattice light-sheet microscopy collect hyperspectral imaging and scattering data in terabytes, at breakneck speed enabled by state-of-the-art detectors. The data collection is exceptionally fast compared with its analysis. Likewise, advances in high-performance architectures have made exascale computing a reality and changed the economies of scientific computing in the process. Floating-point operations that create data are essentially free in comparison with data movement. Thus far, most approaches have focused on creating faster hardware. Ironically, this faster hardware has exacerbated the problem by making data still easier to create. Under such an onslaught, scientists often resort to heuristic deterministic sampling schemes (e.g., low-precision arithmetic, sampling every nth element) and sacrifice potentially valuable accuracy. Dramatically better results can be achieved via randomized algorithms, reducing the data size as much as or more than naive deterministic subsampling can achieve, while retaining the high accuracy of computing on the full data set. By randomized algorithms we mean those algorithms that employ some form of randomness in internal algorithmic decisions to accelerate time to solution, increase scalability, or improve reliability. Examples include matrix sketching for solving large-scale least-squares problems (see Figure 1) and stochastic gradient descent for training machine learning models. We are not recommending heuristic methods but rather randomized algorithms that have certificates of correctness and probabilistic guarantees of optimality and near-optimality. Such approaches can be useful beyond acceleration, for example, in understanding how to avoid measure zero worst-case scenarios that plague methods such as QR matrix factorization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Generalised Porosity Formalism for Isotropic and Anisotropic Effective Opacity and its Effects on X-ray Line Attenuation in Clumped O Star Winds

We present a generalised formalism for treating the porosity-associated reduction in continuum opacity that occurs when individual clumps in a stochastic medium become optically thick. As in previous work, we concentrate on developing bridging laws between the limits of optically thin and thick clumps. We consider geometries resulting in either isotropic or anisotropic effective opacity, and, in addition to an idealised model in which all clumps have the same local overdensity and scale, we also treat an ensemble of clumps with optical depths set by Markovian statistics. This formalism is then applied to the specific case of bound-free absorption of X- rays in hot star winds, a process not directly affected by clumping in the optically thin limit. We find that the Markov model gives surprisingly similar results to those found previously for the single clump model, suggesting that porous opacity is not very sensitive to details of the assumed clump distribution function. Further, an anisotropic effective opacity favours escape of X-rays emitted in the tangential direction (the venetian blind effect), resulting in a bump of higher flux close to line centre as compared to profiles computed from isotropic porosity models. We demonstrate how this characteristic line shape may be used to diagnose the clump geometry, and we confirm previous results that for optically thick clumping to significantly influence X-ray line profiles, very large porosity lengths, defined as the mean free path between clumps, are required. Moreover, we present the first X-ray line profiles computed directly from line-driven instability simulations using a 3-D patch method, and find that porosity effects from such models also are very small. This further supports the view that porosity has, at most, a marginal effect on X-ray line diagnostics in O stars, and therefore that these diagnostics do indeed provide a good clumping insensitive method for deriving O star mass-loss rates.

Sundqvist, Jon O.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Generalised Porosity Formalism for Isotropic and Anisotropic Effective Opacity and Its Effects on X-ray Line Attenuation in Clumped O Star Winds

We present a generalised formalism for treating the porosity-associated reduction in continuum opacity that occurs when individual clumps in a stochastic medium become optically thick. As in previous work, we concentrate on developing bridging laws between the limits of optically thin and thick clumps. We consider geometries resulting in either isotropic or anisotropic effective opacity, and, in addition to an idealised model in which all clumps have the same local overdensity and scale, we also treat an ensemble of clumps with optical depths set by Markovian statistics. This formalism is then applied to the specific case of bound-free absorption of X- rays in hot star winds, a process not directly affected by clumping in the optically thin limit. We find that the Markov model gives surprisingly similar results to those found previously for the single clump model, suggesting that porous opacity is not very sensitive to details of the assumed clump distribution function. Further, an anisotropic effective opacity favours escape of X-rays emitted in the tangential direction (the venetian blind effect), resulting in a bump of higher flux close to line centre as compared to profiles computed from isotropic porosity models. We demonstrate how this characteristic line shape may be used to diagnose the clump geometry, and we confirm previous results that for optically thick clumping to significantly influence X-ray line profiles, very large porosity lengths, defined as the mean free path between clumps, are required. Moreover, we present the first X-ray line profiles computed directly from line-driven instability simulations using a 3-D patch method, and find that porosity effects from such models also are very small. This further supports the view that porosity has, at most, a marginal effect on X-ray line diagnostics in O stars, and therefore that these diagnostics do indeed provide a good clumping insensitive method for deriving O star mass-loss rates.

generalised↗

NASA NTRS2018

The NANOGrav 11 Year Data Set: Pulsar-Timing Constraints on the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released 11 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, a network of decaying cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB constraints are sensitive to the solar system ephemeris (SSE) model used and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first pulsar-timing array (PTA) constraints that are robust against SSE errors. We thus place a 95% upper limit on the GW-strain amplitude of A (sub GWB) < 1.45 × 10 (exp -15) at a frequency of f=1 yr(exp -1) for a fiducial f (exp -2/3) power-law spectrum and with interpulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of approximately 2 improvement over the NANOGrav nine-year limit calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB (as well as their astrophysical and cosmological interpretations) will need revision in light of SSE systematic errors. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH-galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain the cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit of G (sub mu) < 5.3 × 10(exp -11) - a factor of approximately 2 better than the published NANOGrav nine-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation universe) is omega (sub GWB)(f) h (exp 2) < 3.4 × 10 (exp -10).

Supermassive Black Holes↗

DOE OSTI2019

Heat current fluctuations and anomalous transport in low-dimensional carbon lattices

Molecular dynamics simulations and methods of importance sampling are used to study the heat transport of low-dimensional carbon lattices. For both carbon nanotubes and graphene sheets, heat transport is found to be anomalous, violating Fourier’s law of conduction with a system size dependent thermal conductivity and concomitant nonlinear temperature profiles. For carbon nanotubes, the thermal conductivity is found to increase as the square root of the length of the nanotube, while for graphene sheets the thermal conductivity is found to increase as the logarithm of the length of the sheet over the system sizes considered. Furthermore, the particular length dependence and nonlinear temperature profiles place carbon lattices into a universality class with nonlinear lattice models, and suggest that heat transport through carbon nanostructures is better described by a Levy walk rather than simple diffusion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Theory of x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy for multiscale flows

Complex multiscale flows associated with instabilities and turbulence are commonly induced under high-energy density (HED) conditions, but accurate measurement of their transport properties has been challenging. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) with coherent x-ray sources can, in principle, probe material dynamics to infer transport properties using time autocorrelation of density fluctuations. Here we develop a theoretical framework for utilizing XPCS to study material diffusivity in multiscale flows. We extend single-scale shear flow theories to broadband flows using a multiscale analysis that captures shear and diffusion dynamics. Our theory is validated with simulated XPCS for Brownian particles advected in multiscale flows. We demonstrate the versatility of the method over several orders of magnitude in timescale using sequential-pulse XPCS, single-pulse x-ray speckle visibility spectroscopy (XSVS), and double-pulse XSVS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗